Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Regress or Impress Candidates for 2017

Des is playing 16 games this year. Put it on the boy. We'll see. I tend to agree. I like Des. But then so these quarterbacks, too, they're passing touchdowns. Mariotto went up seven touchdowns. Carr went up 11. Andy Dalton went up seven touchdowns. Cam came down two touchdowns. Well, no, you generally, look, James Winston went up six touchdowns. You generally see more latitude given to a quarterback coming into the second year. You're going to see it with Carson wins this year.

So that's a strong argument in favor. I think the efficiency goes out the window. But if it doesn't, you have an elite fantasy quarterback that's done it two times in a row. I think it's up to the defense. If the defense can hold them in close games. So you think he needs positive game scripts? Yes, I do. I think that he's good, but I also feel like. As opposed to Bortles who did it from behind all the time. We didn't, we haven't seen deck fully tested. Under pressure.

Right. We haven't seen that yet. It's hard to get pressure through that line. Jonathan Cooper's on his way. He'll help out. He'll help out. Isaiah Crowell and Tevin Coleman are the two running back candidates for regress or impressed. That's Isaiah Crowell and Tevin. Kevin Coleman. No, they weren't just selected because we have nicknames for them. Although that would be reason enough.

Look, Isaiah Crowell, I think we're all on the same page with Isaiah Crowell. He was the 14th best running back last year in fantasy, and that was a jump of, I believe, 16 spots from the year before. He's played 16 games all three of his seasons. You love seeing that from the running back position. That being said, he's never had over 200 carries last year, 198 for 952 and 7. But he had 40 receptions for 319.

Regress or impress Isaiah Crowell. I actually, oh, you want to jump in here? Jason, why don't you start us off? Sure, I'll start us off. I will say this. Isaiah Crowell, what he did last year, there are many reasons to buy into a regression coming, notably because he was not efficient. You look at his numbers and his yards per carrying. You're like, oh, what are you talking about? He was very good. But so.

many of his yards came on so few carries. And we're not talking about, like we mentioned Jay Ajay and Devonta Freeman, who had those years where several games were just incredible. And, you know, three of their games made up so much of their fantasy points. I'm not talking about games. I'm talking about specific runs, which reminds me more of like Latavius Murray's rookie year, where he had two or three of those just breakaway runs. And he looked much more efficient than he actually is.

However, I think he's going to continue to impress because everything around him worked out perfect. I mean, his offensive line went from a bad one to one of the best in the league, at least on paper. You have the second year of a system with a coach who is always known for having a productive running back, including last year, when it was him. And they didn't go out. They had all the draft picks in the world to bring in a top running back.

They chose not to. So I think Isaiah Crowell is a great fit. And if you're in a Dynasty League, too, I mean, he's so young. Man, I made a trade for him in our Dynasty League. Shut up. Shut up, Richard. I actually moved him down a little bit after digging in even further for today's show. You do not have them at 11 anymore? I don't. I've moved him down. To where? I would have to take a look. I'd love to hear this. I'll look that up for you. Okay. Thank you.

Like Jason was talking about these games where he would have a big run. But looking at the last five years, guys who have under 200 carries, they don't get 900 plus yards. I mean, they barely get over 800. I was looking through, and there's just a small, small handful of guys who actually did this. And what's also concerning to me is you need to average 12.5 carries a game. That's how you get to 200, which I think is a,

For a running back one on your team, you should be getting 200 carries, which Andy was saying he has not. He had 12 and under carries nine times. So it's just maybe that's going to go up. I agree with Jason that the offseason for the Cleveland Browns has been spectacular for Isaiah Crowell besides him getting an actual long-term extension. And the attitude problems, I know he signed his tender, his tender.

But that's a concern for me moving forward. And I just, he had those monster games, just a couple monster games where it was, what, that 75 plus yard run for a touchdown. But I'm very concerned about his workload. And everything boils down to the targets. Will those targets be there again while you have Duke Johnson, who is one of the best past catching running backs in the league?

And for the record, Andy and I have him 11. You have them 13. Here's the question that I have, though, is did he only have 12 or more carries in nine games because of the same situation you had or the inverse situation that DAC had where the game scripts for Cleveland, they couldn't run the ball the way that they wanted to run the ball. That could have also been why his receiving numbers went up and his time on the field went up. So, I mean, they didn't bring anybody else in, but if you.

I think it's going to be a balance, okay? And that's why I have him jumping slightly from 13 to 11. The offensive line gets better. The game strip should be slightly more positive. The carries should go up a little bit. And I'm not projecting his receiving yards to go up, probably around the same if not down. But that puts them in that top 12 category with upside, if this team surprised. One of the things worth at least mentioning since we are talking about all of the things going right for Isaiah Crowell, who had a great year last year.

Duke Johnson quietly had a very good year last year. They both had great years. And when you look at the upcoming fantasy draft, Duke Johnson is a great value late. I mean, he's like 13th plus rounds. And everything that happened good for Crowell happened for Duke as well. Yeah, yeah. I just think he's a guy. I agree. Last year, he was the hotness. I mean, you had many, many people in the fantasy industry were saying, okay, Duke Johnson, this is the breakout, except all those extra targets they thought he was going to get.

ended up going to Crowell. The last thing I'll say for him is the quarterback situation, who is the quarterback? Because you saw a... It's Cody Kaiser. Everybody knows that. But just looking at things, like when Robert Griffin was the quarterback, targets were not going to Isaiah Crowell. But then when Kessler was in, especially Josh McCown, then you were getting targets. So I think you're safe with Kessler or Kaiser, but just saying that that,

Factors in as well. Tavin Coleman. Yes. From 79th in 2015, all the way up to number 19 last year. And Tavon Coleman's a great guy to talk about here on Regress or Impressed because he is the most uncomfortable of backs to own, a back that is not the team's number one. He's not...

There are no keys handed over to him. He does not get rain of the backfield. He doesn't even have a chance. It's not a 1A1B either. He's the two. He's the two. However, the offense is so good that it can sustain or was able to sustain two very, very good running backs last year. Being number 19.

in only 14 games is impressive for Tevin Coleman. Now, what you didn't see to me, now maybe I'm wrong, you guys looked at these numbers and maybe there's something I'm missing. But there wasn't necessarily a pattern with Tevin Coleman receiving the bulk of second-half carries if they were ahead or anything like that. He seems to be used in a fashion that is to spell Devonta Freeman throughout the game at intervals that...

Apparently the team believes makes Devante Freeman even better. Yeah, that's the way it seemed to me. Something I saw that was interesting was he had 11 touchdowns last year. Only one of those touchdowns, though, so maybe this factors in, but only one of those touchdowns was scored when the Falcons were trailing. So 10 of his 11 touchdowns that was either tied or they were already winning. Now, that could just be a fluky thing. I just thought it was an interesting thing. They were winning a lot. Yes.

Yeah, so I just thought it was interesting to note. He only had 24% of the team's 10 zone carries, and we know that those 10 zone carries are fantasy gold. What percent was that? 24? 24% of the team. So, and then here's the big outlier question. Kevin Coleman, 30th in receptions for running backs, eighth in receiving yards.

I mean, that's a monster production, very, very hyper-efficient that is probably not repeatable. And, I mean, you just, so you take some of that away to bring him down into the 20s. Let's say he still is excellent in the receiving game, but he only has the 20th most receiving yards. And you've lost a lot of fantasy production. Regress are impressed, Mike. Kevin Coleman. I'm going regress. But the excellent thing about Coleman is,

You are drafting a flex play, but he's also that hand cuff, where if something happened to Defante Freeman, then Tevin Coleman can go full ham. All right. We got it. Mike went with regress. Yep. But potential. I'm not doing regress or impress. He's a rest for me. I've got him exactly at 19, which is where he finished last year. So he's going to rest right on that 19 spot.

Jason, give me your regress or impress, and we'll move on to wide receivers. I echo most of what Mike said. I definitely think there's regression coming up. I mean, the dude average 13.2 yards per reception because he had so many receptions taken to the house or at least just a massive run. He was big chunks. You got the change at, I'm expecting kind of a regression for the Falcons offense. So if I'm expecting that and you have this crazy outlier.

of a statistic in Tevin Coleman's receptions. I have to say regress, but I'm not saying don't draft him because he is still an unbelievably valuable handcuff who could be a flex play in the meantime. Those are rare. You can't buy him at a handcuffs price. He's going to be like a fourth or a fifth round pick. Yeah, well, I'm not going to be investing a fourth or fifth. So you're saying don't draft him. If he's in the fourth, no, there are many running. Where's the line right now?

Are you drafting Frank Gore or Tevin Coleman? Do you need to play the name game? Yeah, I probably need to play the name game. Let me look up and see where Tevin Coleman's going right now according to Fantasy Football Calculators. Brooks has it. He's going the fourth round 408 in PPR. Yeah, so some guys going behind him, Doug Martin. I know you would take Dougie. You've got the question mark with Rob Kelly and Derek Henry, Blal Powell. You know, I'd take Powell over him.

Frank Gore is always going later. I want Tavon Coleman to be like my third or fourth running back on my bench waiting for that Devante Freeman injury where he's the greatest player on earth. I don't want to have to take him where he's my fourth player off the board overall, which is what a 408 would be. So as much as I like the dude, those hesitations would hold me back. Now, if he was dropping, what if you got Devonto Freeman in the first round? Are you willing to spend the 408 on Taven Coleman, Mike?

That becomes a little bit more interesting. That would just stink to have to invest that much two of your top four picks into a single backfield. But it's also nice to, you know that you're going to have the Falcons running back. High risk, though, with Shanahan leaving. High risk. I wouldn't. I'm not doing it. Yeah, now with the other guys on the board. Wide receivers, guys. We're going to talk about.

Two players that were number seven and number eight last year. Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas, 24 years old, burst, literally burst right under the scene. 15 games, 92 for over 1,100 yards, nine touchdowns on 121 targets. You got to love a year like that from a guy who was kind of finding his way in the beginning, like every rookie does. He found it quick, and he found it with Drew Brees.

Number seven last year. And then Devante Adams, who I am probably the lowest on of anybody in this office because I can't stand the 75 reception total. But he's with the best quarterback in football. Twelve touchdowns last year. Finish number eight. Can't argue with the numbers in the production. Might argue with the talent overall, but it might not matter. So regress or impress. We'll start with Michael Thomas, guys. Regress or impress.

Michael Thomas, I'm going to definitely say that he's going to impress. I went into this. He was number seven.