Fantasy Football - What Went Wrong? + MORE Free Agent Frenzy! - Podcast for 3/13

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thursday, March 13th. The fantasy footballers back with you. Jason Moore, the Cal Ripkin Jr. of the podcast. Flew in at 4 a.m. today just to make sure he didn't miss this episode. Wow. I mean, it's when it's part two, you can't. Right. You know, it's a continuation. You can't just. Sometimes, you know, people don't come back for the sequel because their contract demands are too high. Yeah. I wanted to talk to you guys about that. I would, I would like more on my contract. Is Jason the Crispin Glover of the show? I mean, it makes sense. Little.

eccentric yeah weirdo no Jason legitimately uh flew out of town his family's on spring break spent 24 hours uh at a theme park yeah not quite 24 hours at the theme park but you know a day did Disneyland shut it down and then and I'm here for good yeah yeah yeah it's closed guys I did the final one he's going I'm supposed to go next week oh I'm sorry man I shut it down I did oh man I believe the bathrooms maybe, but. Did you, you stayed till close? Yeah, what you mean? Yeah, that is what. And then got on a plane and for you. Dude, you are dumb. And he's here. So we've got more free agency to talk about. We got a good quick question, a new series. We'll call it, what went wrong? Because not every player drafted with a high ADP worked out for fantasy players last year. And so this one will be very.

It's very interesting to dig into. What went wrong? We'll talk about a certain player today. And, yeah, there's, I mean, there's been some players released. And there's some veterans available. We've got some players reuniting with former homes and lots to dig into. Like Mason Rudolph. Like Mason Rudolph. Ah. The life of a unlikable backup quarterback. Just really, it works out. financially just that's where the the running back contracts really got to roll their eyes when you know you can have the the year of your life rico dowdell and you can go out there and you know have maybe three million dollars guaranteed to you and then here comes rowing team captain mason rudolph yeah i will tell you the eight million dollars to go back to pittsburgh the most excited person about that contract is miles garrett is it

Because he gets to see him twice a year. He's hoping to. Yeah, well, he might. Right now they have no quarterback because Aaron Rogers can't make a decision. Apparently you guys don't remember the incident. Oh, yeah. Of course we do. I just didn't know that he really wanted to like re-up that. You wouldn't? He's a backup quarterback. He's not going to see him ever again. All right. I'll find a way. I'll hit him on the outside. If you are interested in winning at your draft, go check out the Ultimate Draft kit. Right now it is the pre-order pricing at UltimateDraftKit.com. Get access to the Dynasty Pass being updated moment by moment with all of these offseason moves. The draft hype, the draft will be here before you know it. And that's part of the UDK Plus, all of that at Ultimate draft kit.com. The quick question of the day, what went wrong?

Dalton Kincaid, Dalton Kincaid, an early fifth round fantasy draft pick as the Titan 5 coming off of a Titan 11 season in 16 games played with 91 targets, 73 receptions, 673 yards coming into last year, there was tremendous excitement for Dalton Kincaid. Stefan Diggs had departed. And Kincaid was expected to maybe join the ranks of a top tier fantasy tight end. How did it work out? Tighten 28 and 13 games played 44 for 448 into what went wrong. Yeah, I mean, it was very disappointing. He was one of my favorite perceived values, you know, of the kind of five pack of tight ends that seemingly could vie for that number one spot.

And he didn't. And when you watch the film, he didn't, he just wasn't good. He was not, you know, special in any way, shape or form. I know after the season, there's been some talk whenever there's a down player. It's always like, oh, they were injured. But that's what it, you know, they've had some talk about he was dealing with some injuries. But I mean, he was, you know, he caught 80% of his passes as a rookie. And last year it was 59% of the past. He just wasn't good on film. He wasn't that he wasn't producing. He wasn't breaking tackles. He wasn't getting open the same. He just, he just won that good. And when you watch it, it's like maybe he's not that guy. And Josh Allen's going to spread the ball around. I don't believe it's going to, I don't think he's going to emerge as a primary, certainly not the primary target in this offense.

I would say a realistic expectation for Kincaid is probably around 75 receptions next year. I think that's about where you'd expect him to be if he was healthy through the whole year, which is not, unless he scores 10 times, that's not going to move the needle for fantasy. He was a player that when you watch the games on a team that didn't have an established number one, you thought he could step into that role, but they took so many deep shots with Kincaid. And none of them worked. He actually ran, I believe, the most go routes, if not the second most go routes. Only Conklin ran more go routes. You know how many receiving yards he had on go routes? Or percentage, I should say. How many receiving yards he had on go routes? I do not. Zero. No. He ran the second most go routes. Is that true? Yes. Zero receiving yards on those routes. So there was the attempt to, and this is where I will.

agree with you on the fact that, you know, when you make the assumption, look, he wasn't that good. Yeah. I mean, if you never build that rapport with Josh Allen when Mack Hollins is having a game here or there, when Keon Coleman can have a big play, there was no big plays. Like, if you're going to catch 75 passes, I'm cool with that, George Kittle. That's a go make a big play down the field or catch seven or eight touchdowns. I don't think that that is. like that range of outcomes doesn't exist for Kincaid moving forward because, you know, tight ends it takes a while. But it was a really disappointing year. And fantasy players are going to feel burned and probably not take that shot again. It's not just he ran a much higher percentage of go routes than tight ends. So he 18% of his routes were go routes, a nine route, where the NFL average for tight ends is just under 12%. So big percentage increase, which would.

Normally that would be very exciting unless for some reason people are not connecting here. And then the other one, he ran a lot of a much higher percentage of screens, which is, I mean, those are fine cheapy PPR points, but for the most part, those are not high value fantasy targets that we care about. Then you add in on top that the bills, their rush percentage in the red zone has, it's just gone up. for three straight years, almost 55% of their, I got it, of their plays, like, they're just, they're running more. And we, I mean, we saw that with James Cook. He had a bazillion touchdowns. The, the snap percentage going from a 60% snap player to a 43% snap player on the season, like, and that's in games he played, that does coincide with the, the narrative that he was maybe,

hurting more than we knew about the general public. He did miss three games of the knee injury in the middle of the year. And his ADP is going to be very interesting. So right now in best ball, he's going as the tight in 14. So that leaves some margin. Kyle Pitts was considerably better than Dalton Kincaid last year. as a fantasy option. Wow. I want that to be stated. That's actually, I think that's all you need to say. Kyle Pitts is a full, like, disappointment for fantasy players and he's still a top 15 tight in with more receptions, more yards, more touchdowns. And, you know, you talked about not connecting on the deep throws. I mean, that reminds me of Kyle Pitts. Yes. Athletically gifted player. Like I think, I think Kincaid is a pretty good tight in. And if a team made him a focal point.

If that was in the cards, I think it would be pretty productive. Like he could have an Ingram a season if you want. He's athletically gifted enough to do that in my opinion. But I don't see that in the cards for the next handful of years. Yeah. I remember midway through the season talking about if you're in dynasty, trade Dalton Kincaid because I don't think he's that guy and I don't think it's going to. Yeah. You had made a declaration. Yeah. And so. At this point, he just doesn't have a lot of value left. You're just hoping something clicks as he gets older. I mean, you know, that was an MVP season from Josh Allen. Yes. It's like, you can't ask for much more than everything he had opportunity-wise. And the, so the stats here on tight ends, what season do they break out? And so I have the numbers of players drafted since 2014. And.

19% of the guys who have a top 12 season. The first time they do it is year one. He did that. He was tied at 11 year one. Yeah, so he barely snuck in. But it's like, then there's a weird thing of tight ends breaking out in year one and then not coming anywhere close to their ADP in year two. We're going to talk about those numbers later on in the off season, but it's saying like, to have a real breakout. It has to happen in year one or year two or your percentage chance goes way, way down that you're going to be a truly viable fantasy titan. And just historically speaking, every player is their own individual case. But if you're going to look back on history, it's not kind. It doesn't feel great right now. Well, flies in the face of that is just the fact that both these guys, I mean, Pitts and Kinkeye both did it in year one. And then they dropped off. Like Pitts is at three disappointing years in a row.

Like, I'm staring this down, Jay, you know, this everlasting debate of rookie tight ends. It's like, are you Hawk and Bowers? Or are you Pitts and Kincai, right? Is it? Or are you, are you, Ingram and Djoku took forever? Like, those are all. Hawkinson was year two. That's six. Sorry, I didn't even mean Hawk. Who did you? La Porta? I meant La Porta. Yeah, yes. Laporta and Bowers. But like, those are all names that are all first round tight ends. And you're probably going to have two more this year. Yeah. And so you know that they can make a big impact. And, you know, Pitts and Kincaid did in year one, but it didn't carry on into. No. And neither Leporta in year one. And it didn't carry on into year two as well. Yeah, the. But Bowers probably will. Yeah, Bowers is his own guy. But it's like, Engram broke out year one. Then he was a hit for his ADP the next year. But.

Both, you mean, you got Pitts, Laporta, Kincaid, we're all not just misses. These were big misses where they finished two points under what you would have, more than two points under what you would have expected for their draft spot. So it's been a weird thing with Titans. We don't have a huge sample, obviously, because a breakout in year one is not the common. It's more of a season two. So TBD here on Brock Bowers. Will he be someone that is? You know, the normal strategy, right? You take one of the stud tight ends or you draft them in the last round. Would you take Dalton Cicade with the last round pick next year as your dart throw? Yes. If we're going to punt, then he will be one of my targets. I'll take him over a probably like a Ferguson style where I know the baseline is because I can just see what happens. Maybe Kincais is more integrated.

into the offense for a few weeks, but you're not taking them with a guarantee to use your starter. And that's what people were doing last year. Yeah, I think I'd rather have, I'd rather take a shot on a rookie tight end in the late rounds over, over Kincaid. Yeah, I think that that's probably fair. We'll jump right in. Free agent frenzy. Mike, how would you describe the free agent period in 2025? I wouldn't, I mean, I know the drop is a frenzy. It's not a, I mean, it's like a gentle breeze. Not a frenzy. No. I mean, we all feel it. The free agency period has been slow. And I, the, I guess it's just because of the free agents available. It's old wide receivers or running backs when, why would I pay a running back when I could draft one of these five or six studs, which you could go even deeper. Like a lot of draft people are saying, no, there's.

We got 10 plus running backs who are NFL caliber running back. So why would I pay anybody right now? I think when T. Higgins was taken off the board as an available free agent this off season, it took a lot of the wind out of the sales. Because like you said, I don't, I don't want to talk about Javante Williams at all. Right. Like that's not a headline maker I want to talk about. There's no Derek Henry, Saquan Barkley, big, you know, awesome offensive weapons. changing teams. Just sadness for Jason because the Rams finally made it official. Stupid's. Cooper Cup. He posted his farewell yesterday on social media, if you read that, eight years as a Los Angeles ram. Some people wanted to remind, I think Jason, that he's only a thousand-yard receiver twice in eight years, that he had the one superb outstanding season, obviously, that kind of broke fantasy football in his

a Super Bowl champion. But I think the debate is, is he done? Is this kind of, you know, Mike and I were talking yesterday, I think on the footcast briefly, just about the fact it's pretty rare for a team that knows a guy that has been that guy for, you know, Cooper Cup was the number one receiver for many, many years. When they make that call. that we're not bringing you back. It's pretty rare for that guy to go and find success at that same level elsewhere. You might get a Thielen. Yeah, Adam Thielen was the name that immediately popped up to me. It feels very, very similar. They didn't want to pay him. He was older. It could be. I mean, that would be the best possible outcome would be a Thielen type of change. Yeah. But there's a lot of players, too, you know, whether it's Julio or Hopkins.

where the team has made, or Alan Robinson, where teams have made the decision that you're done, and you're done. Amari Cooper? The thing that will be incredibly difficult to reconcile is when Cooper Cup first came back from his ankle injury, so they were talking weeks eight through 14, both him and Pooker are on the field. I mean, over that span, Cooper Cup. was averaging over 15 points per game in a half point scoring format. He was the wide receiver five in that stretch. And it felt like, oh, all right, Cooper Cup is bag. Then week 15 of the playoffs happens for our fantasy playoffs. And he, it's a full goose. Like, well, that was weird. How's the guy, how's a player being so productive? Put up a zero, a full zero. Was that also the game that Puka got like kicked out of? I do not remember the, that part. I'll check Puka stats.

Then the next week, you're like, oh, Cooper Cup, no problem. Under four points, under four points. I mean, it went, the, the valve was completely turned off of he was no longer a part of what the Rams wanted to do on offense for that stretch. And it was, it's so, it's, I mean, we're in an impossible situation. We just saw this. Oh, please. Who did we see it with? Stefan Dix. We just saw the identical thing happen was to find Diggs in Buffalo. He was your guy, your guy, your guy. The valve was turned off at the end of the season. And it was like, let's get him out of town. And to be fair, Diggs was very good for the Texans. Obviously got injured and stopped being a Texan. But to start the season, you know, he came out and was very important to the offense, didn't look.

washed to me? I think he was a different player, wouldn't you say? Would he say Diggs was not, he wasn't the tier of... He was not in his superstar form, but he was still very useful for the Texans. Here's the question I have for you. This will give us a lay of the land. If one is washed. Okay. And 10 is the MVP season of Cooper Cup. Okay. So 1 through 10. One is washed. 10 is... Premier Cooper Cup. What number do you think he is at going into next year? What do you think you get with a team? Four. Oh, you're at four. Yeah, I think he's on the downside of the career. That's pretty low. At this age. I thought you were going to give him about a seven or six. No. He, that's just, that's his heart. Yeah. I, I love Cooper Cup and I just don't like that I would. I mean, I think it's, that I'm dirty. But I'm not saying that they're wrong.

I think it's a four or five. I think I'd be a four or five. I'm out of between a three and a four. Okay. So he can go and help somebody. Odds that you think Cooper Cup will be a fantasy relevant wide receiver two next year? Entirely depends on where he goes. Jacksonville. Yeah. No. With Drake May? Yeah, I don't. I don't love the offense. There'll be enough to go around. What's the Falcon? You just posted a graphic. I think up on socials. What is the other team that was mentioned with Cooper Cup? Did you say Patriots? Yeah, Seattle. Oh, Seattle. Yeah. Good work, Matt. Yeah, good work. Thank you for that. Nice. He spent most of the time finding the button. I could see. We switched him to another button and he was looking for the button the whole time. Yeah. Did you find the button? Could you have answered? There you go. Good work. Seattle, what do you think about, of those three destinations? Put them in order of your favorite.

Jacksonville, New England, Seattle. So you have Seattle at the bottom. Yeah, I mean, obviously maybe Sam Darnold is leveled up and resurrected his career and is, you know, able to be great. But I think this is a team that wants to get more to the defensive side, more to running the ball. And I don't usually view Sam Darnold as exceptional. I'll go Seattle. I'll go Seattle, New England, Jacksonville. You like Seattle the best. I do. Wow. I just don't think JSN has what it takes to fully. Like Brian Thomas Jr. is it, right? And so Cup is very two, three in Jacksonville with a Trevor Lawrence that is leaving question marks. So I guess I just feel like Cup would be, like that would be his Carolina deal in destination would be Seattle. For target volume? For target volume. Yeah, I lean.

Jacksonville at the top because I think he needs a Brian Thomas he needs him on the other side okay I think he needs it and then yeah I'll go I'll go Pat's I guess second for upside of the unknown like of Drake May Jason we were talking on the footcast yesterday as well the fact that like sitting out there on the waiver wire right now waiver wire on the on free agency cup Keenan digs And I was making the comment that like a team could, they could go one year on all three of the guys and bring them in. And you just, you have a wide receiver room for a year. The ARP team. Like the Raiders don't have wide outs, right? It's like you can bring those three dudes in. The ARP team? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that would be. I think you bring those three in because you're hoping you get about one and a half receivers. If you bring them all in, one of them. What about the Giants with Malik neighbors on the other side? What? And superstar Darius Slayton?

Right, yeah. And maybe Aaron Rogers goes out. I don't. Yeah, it's a quarterback problem there. Oh my gosh, Rogers. What is this guy doing? Whatever he wants. We'll talk about that in a second. We'll take a break. We'll come back with some more news. Before the break, you mentioned your frustration with Aaron Rogers because, you know, we've got offers on the table from Pittsburgh. It's been reported. Pittsburgh's made him an offer. It seems like the Giants have made him an offer or are very interested. And then. you know, he's not making a call. And Adam Schaefter comes out and he seems very... That was a very funny video. Seems very frustrated with... I'm not that mad. Yeah. But like Adam Schaefter, if you've missed it, I'm sure you could find it. But he's talking about Aaron Rogers making decision. And Adam Schaefter seems personally attacked. And...

personally frustrated that Aaron Rogers has not made the decision yet. I believe he compared making this call on his future home as a quarterback to picking a lunch destination. It's not that hard. He's like, you just pick a place to go to lunch and go. I am in agreement. It is not that hard. If you have an offer from the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants, you go to the Pittsburgh Steelers because you're 40-something years old and you have a year or two left. You're not winning a Super Bowl with the Giants. And if you're, maybe you want to live in New York. Yeah, but you have enough. You're not winning a Super Bowl. Maybe you already have a home in New York. That still is. It'll be really interesting. If he does, if you were to choose the Giants, I think that says what his priority isn't. You know who would pick teams like this is Kyle? Like if Kyle was on the free agent market.

If he thought that all the reporters were waiting for his information, he'd be like, I will hold back that information until you're upset. Kyle is not here to defend himself. No, he's not. But he knows it's true. Taking a shot anyways. The Broncos, they have signed their Joker tight end. Evan Ingram, two-year deal. Just 30 years old. Last year was a complete bust. I mean, just kind of a lost season. Yeah, it hurt. But a near record-breaking season the year before we. Yeah, I'm excited about this. I think Denver is right there. I mean, I love Bo Nix. I think this is a huge move for the offense. I think it, Mike, you said it yesterday. It frees them up to be a focus on maybe running back or other positions in the draft where they had been rumored around the rookie tight ends. They've been looking for a Joker style tight in for a while, somebody that can go out and be versatile and run routes and.

take screen passes and be a red zone presence, and I think Ingram does enough of those things, and then their defense is getting stronger. Weren't they the home of Mr. Greenlaw? Isn't Greenlaw in Denver Bronco now? Yeah, and Hufunga. And Hufunga, yeah. So a couple 49ers landing there as they kind of get rid of all their players. And so I think Denver is like one of my favorite playoff teams next year. They're going to be fun. I am. Most interested to hear Jason, because when we were talking about Engram on Tuesday's show, you were pretty OUT on Engram, still being a fantasy tight end. Are you good with this spot? This is about as good of a destination as possible. I think maybe the Chargers would have been slightly better than this for fantasy football, but they don't have, you know, outside of Cortland Sutton, they don't really have an established next target.

and Sean Peyton wants to use a tight end more, but he just hasn't had, you know, he's had Adam Troutman who's not, you know. Watch it. I got to be careful what I say in front of Mike about Adam Troutman, um, sensational football player. But for fantasy, this, this is really good. I mean, you know, I would, I would certainly rather have Evan Ingram next year than don't kick. I was going to ask it. Yeah. Yeah, that one's easy. You're taking a late round selection. Saints re-signed Juan Johnson, their tight end to a three-year deal, $30 million. He's always been just... 21 guaranteed. He's just always kind of sitting there as a player that has flashes but doesn't seem to be at the level you build an offense around. So I think that's been figured out. I think that's a fair thing to say. I mean, he was... He was their leader. He was second in receptions, and he led the team in receiving yards. Yeah, but when that number is 548, it tells you a lot about that offense.

Yeah, Joanne Johnson is, I hoped he was going to go to Denver. I think that he is an exciting player should he have got put it in the right position. Most people don't know who Joanne Johnson is, but he is a good player. You got 21 guaranteed to come back for the Saints. So fantasy-wise, though, it could happen. I would not rule it out because he's had stretches of games, not just like a game here or there. He's had stretches, so he is on the radar as a punt draft option. Fantasy players need to understand that tight-ins get a lot of money, and sometimes they're not fantasy-relevant side-ins. I mean, Luke Farrell just got $20 million from the 49ers. You'd be like, who's that? And that's a fair thing to say. But he was a Jags tight-end, and that's what Evan Ingram was. So he wasn't a fantasy-relevant tight-in, but they do a lot of work in the run.

blocking and you know the versatility of a tight end gets paid for but the fantasy value of every tight end is very different yeah and i mean this is he's going to be going into year six and this is with the same team and the same system he's never been relevant joan joan yeah so he's a top 12 guy in 2022 irrelevant Ooh. He had 508 yards that year. That's seven touchdowns. Smacks of little Jalen Warren under 10 points per game situation. Rico Dowto, Mike, one year. Yeah. It. Oh, don't let your kids grow up to be running backs. The Panthers signed Rico Dowto one year deal, 2.75 base incentives up to six. I mean, we're all going to do that, right? But you're not going to hit your incentives behind Chuba. This is not.