Luck Retirement Fallout + Bold Predictions

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Find Primal Kitchen buffalo sauce at grocery stores nationwide or on primalcitchen.com. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Every football fan is different. Some won't wash their lucky mustard-stained jersey until the season's over. Some insist they can't sit down on third downs and some pick their favorite team because, I don't know, just like football fandom.

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Now, we have, last year in Phoenix, we did this show. We brought out some bold predictions. We're doing it again tonight. Oh, I've got a good one for the top of the show. It's too hot, Mike. When we throw them out in this show, you think there's no way that this can possibly happen, but it just might. It just might happen. We normally get right into the quick question, and we have a great one there as well. But I have to hit this button. Breaking news. Well. What?

Today is this show is being recorded on the single busiest draft day of the entire year. Yeah, good thing everything stays status quo. Andrew Luck, 29-year-old quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, has retired. What a world. Yeah. We're getting some cheers and booze. This news broke in about an hour before.

we started this show. Is there anybody in the audience that didn't know until just now? I'm sorry. Someone's in the back. I got Andrew Luckin the 12th. It was crazy. He just kept dropping. So I snatched him up. We updated our ultimate draft kit and somebody sent me a note and they screenshot it and you see down, down, down, down, all the colts are down. And they said, is there Colts news I don't know about? Nope. Just a gut feeling. Just a gut. We've got real good intuition.

So we're starting with the breaking news. We'll circle back to the quick question. Let me read you the physical toll on Andrew Luck through six years. Torn cartilage and two ribs, partially torn abdomen, lacerated kidney, one concussion, torn labrum, and then this mysterious calf slash teeny tiny bone injury. New bone. But this is the most shocking thing to happen in the NFL and in fantasy football in as long as I can remember.

I can't think of another thing that, you know, this close to the season for a player to retire, and not just like a player. This isn't like, oh, you know, a journeyman, right guard. Ryan Fitzpatrick finally hangs him up. No, this is Andrew Luck. This was, I mean, early in the off season, prior to the calf injuries, the Colts were my Super Bowl pick. How's your tickets looking right now, dude? Look, I just, I'm going to, I'm going to, this is a bold prediction. A pivot. Bold prediction.

show I'm going to right now, right here, predict. Super Spice. I don't think it comes true. I don't think the Colts win the Super Bowl anymore. Spicy. Beyond Andrew Luck, who went from not playing in 2017, to comeback player of the year, 39 touchdowns last season, to now retiring, T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, Naeem Hines, Eric E. Bron. What happens now?

I think it's pretty rough. You know, in truth, when I updated my rankings, as insane as it is, the only person that even looks like they could be a value for the Colts in my rankings is actually Mr. Jacoby Beef Brisket himself. Jacobi Burset. There it is.

But, I mean, we had to dig through the vaults. That's old. That's old. That's real old. Andy, I know we disagree a little bit on the outlook for T.Y. Hilton. T.Y. Hilton, I now have as in a half-point scoring as my wide receiver 27. So he's not irrelevant. He's still going to be a fantasy contributor. There were like audible moans and groans when you said that. Yeah. I mean, it stinks. You take a guy who had the potential. Some from my dynasty team. To be.

Oh, man, I remember having him this off-season. You traded him to me. T.Y. Hilton, twice in his illustrious career, twice, has been under the 1,000-yard mark. Once was his rookie season, and once was the year that he played the entire year without Andrew Luck. Yeah, it's not good. It's not good for T.Y. Hilton. He's a player that can lead the league in yardage.

with a quarterback. We both move Jacoby Brissette to the 20 range at the quarterback position based on what we think he can do. I think he was the best backup in the league, arguably, but you're going from a top five quarterback to 20 at best, and this is unfortunate. Now, the situation for Jacoby Brissette isn't the same that it was in 2017. No, it's much better. Different coaching staff. I mean, you've spent most of your off. I love Frank Wright. And then in 2017,

He was pressured on 40% of dropbacks. That's the sixth highest number in the league. So a better offensive line trying to find a silver lining for somebody, but Marlon Mack's breakout season goes out the window most likely. You're not on the goal line. You're not moving the football. Marlon Mack is the player that is the most single-handedly, he has affected the largest because this is a player who's not the past catching back. This is a player who dominated in the games where he was.

winning. This was a player who, if you look at the game splits, in games where they won by wide margins, Mac dominated because he was running out the clock. He had touchdown opportunities. He is a perfect back for an Andrew Luck led Colts, and he's not a back that I would believe in as much without him. So, I mean, you know, he was almost a my guy. Dodge that bullet. Well, you should have known.

I mean, we all knew. Andrew Luck was going. And that's why I didn't go with it. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, he's a guy that now is like RB30 for me. I'm not, you know, it's, if you're drafting right now this week, ADP doesn't matter. You need to use the rankings. Like if you, if you've got the ultimate draft kit and you're, you know, our rankings are now updated in that. Use those versus ADP for as to, when should I take Marlon Mac? Because.

None of the ADP is going to make any sense in your home leagues. Do you expect any of these Colts to drop to the point where they are going to be draft day values? Look. You both moved Hilton lower than I did. I have like 18 now. I moved to, I moved him down. He finished his year with, it was under 1,000, but he was almost there. However, when you look at how he got there, it was four huge games, which great. Those four weeks were spectacular. Yeah, you couldn't predict them.

But you had to play him every single week to get those four weeks. The one player where I did nothing to his stat projection, there was a player in 2017 who had 108 targets, 80 receptions. That was the man with those baby hands. Jack Doyle. You would find a way to make this good for Jack Doyle. I'm just saying we have.

We have evidence. You're saying Jacobi targets smaller-handed men. Right. Maybe that's what he's attracted to, or maybe it's that he just is like, crap, Jack Doyle, take the ball. We are going to circle. There'll be ramifications for this Andrew Luck situation that go well beyond this show. We'll talk about it throughout the next couple of weeks and into the season. Look. I do want to throw out one quick name. I know it's...

It's deeper. It's in a dynasty league. First of all, if you're in a dynasty league, pick up Jacoby Percette. Don't just let the Andrew Luck owner get him for free, okay? Foot Clan, make it cost money or get him for yourself. But if you're in a deep league and you got a trash bench, Chad Kelly is, like, Jacoby Preset's a very good backup. But Chad Kelly, a name you might not be familiar with, is a great quarterback who, I believe, has the potential to be a great quarterback.

who has been just a terrible human being. Let's just say he's had poor decisions. Sure. So he's, you know, only frequent poor decisions. You want them to make a frequent poor decisions. You want them to make the good decision to put him on their dynasty. You know, it's up to you, but take a little peekski. All right, we'll circle back to this quick question. Before we get to that, I do want to, and give it up, for St. Jude, this entire...

We're very, very proud to be partnering with St. Jude Children's Research Hospital throughout this entire tour. All of our proceeds from this event here in Phoenix are going straight to St. Jude. They've been an incredible partner. You guys know a dollar from every ultimate draft get straight to St. Jude, so appreciate their support. We're proud to be partners. And then we want to thank Pristine Auction. They've sponsored this tour as well, and they've been great partners. We're giving away this autographed.

David Johnson Helmet at the end of this show. And he looked pretty good today. Yeah, it's looking up. It's looking good. Did you swing the pendulum back a little bit? No. No, I kept him where he was, but he's still top five. All right, here's what... Six. I don't know. We're going back to the well on this quick question. We asked it here last year. Best player analogy for 2019. It's that simple. Your best player... Last year, I compared...

Sam Bradford to you. Yeah. And I... You nailed it. Whoa! Hey! But listen, I respect you. I'm not going back to that well. I'm not going to do that again. And obviously, Joy Bell retired, so I don't have a player comp that fits. Come on, man. CJ Anderson's still out there? I compared him to a professional running back. But what's your player analogy, Mike? All right. I'll set the table here first.

Uh, how many, the guys are, how many are fathers out here? How many dads do we got in the crowd? So, most of you also have dads as well. Like, that's, that's kind of how it works. But here's the thing. Yes. You're talking to me. I haven't hit it yet personally, but there's a day in every father's life where he loses in arm wrestling to his son. And that day you go, oh, ha, ha, ha.

You got me this time, son. You tussle his hair. You say how proud you are of the man he's becoming. But in your heart, you think, that was once. That was just a one-off. But then it starts to eat you inside. And then jokingly. What if it's not? No, jokingly, you know, well, son, we got a rematch because that was garbage. I was on five hours of sleep, blah, blah. Let's go. And then you arm wrestle and you lose again.

and then you bring up something else. You say, let's race, and you lose the race, because once you have lost to your son, you never win again. You're going in different directions on the aging scale. As the father, you may say, I just got this awesome new job, and now I'm making way more money than you, but it doesn't matter because you're not going to score more fantasy points.

Because your son is James Connor, and the father is Levion Bell, who has been surpassed by his son, James Connor. I like it. I like it. I don't know if all three of us agree. But I agree. I like, I think James Connor is a great option. I just like that despite the fact that on different teams now, you still.

are pitting them firmly against one another. You know you're on Team Connor. You know. You think Levine Bell's not going to look at every single box score of James Connor. He probably will do that. You darn right he is. And bring it. He's going to bring it to Adam Gase and say, uh, James Connor got seven targets this week. I got three. What's going on here? All right. So I'm going to bring up another, uh, former stealer. And I'm going to say, yeah, take that. I'm going to say, remember that Super Bowl? That.