The Fantasy MVP Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/30

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. And welcome in Friday episode, MVP episode of the fantasy footballers, Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. Excited to be with you, wishing you the very best on your fantasy drafts this weekend. It's our job to make you better. hopefully and to get you ready to go we are in three different drafts going on right now slow drafts that are i mean this is this is the season i we're under a week from kickoff and we have our league of record draft for the very first time on the debut of you know the first game of the year which is a it's a dangerous proposition

We just need to start it on time. We can't go too late. Make sure that I can import the teams properly because we do that offline and don't stress me out too much. You usually update the schedule for the divisions, all that. That's all got to happen post-draft pre-kickoff. And all of it's going to happen while I sit at my desk with a banner that talks about the three championships. And then. a variety of other things that have arrived in packages in the last couple of weeks. All I know is Marilyn Monroe better show up or I'm going to be disappointed. I'm a little excited. You know how Saturday Night Live does the, what is the five time appearance? You get the, oh, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's like, like Andy's in the three time club now. Yeah. When you're in a club by yourself, it's a little lonely.

Like you're just, it's just me hanging out playing video games all by myself. Oh, so you like that I'm in there with you? Yeah, welcome in. I got a, I have a friend now. I told him that there was a chance that I didn't do a bunch on draft day and just got an old hat because this is just getting kind of habitual. I understand. Is it habitual? Because it's been what? Over a decade? I'm pretty sure in the last decade, the only multi-time champ is me. Oh my gosh. So, you know, if you guys want to go way back, that's cool.

All right, so the season's definitely ready to kick off. You guys suck. We've got an MVP, a fantasy MVP episode. Super excited. All three of us are going to reveal our fantasy MVP, one player from 2024 that we think will be the difference between an okay season and a championship. And we have a ton of special guests sharing their fantasy MVPs on today's show, including Rich Rebar, Nathan Yankee, Ben Gretsch. Kyborg and Betsy will share theirs. We got JJ Zacharison back on the show today and we've got Kay Adams on the show today as well. So very, very excited to jump into it. The Ultimate Draft Kit, you need it for this weekend, Ultimate DraftKit.com, and the Megalabole, we are approaching 16,000 people. Mega, mega, mega, mega, mega. I was going to let you just go. Megalabole.com.

Hop in there. Drafts start tomorrow. I thought you're about to go McConaughey again. That was, was that from the live show? Yeah. He was, um, Jason was something else. I was caffeinated. Uh, more than that. All right. Here we go. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Well, well, well, we got here. Brandon IUC has signed a four-year extension. Never worried for a minute, guys. Worth $120 million. And there's a lot to unpack here. But let's go back in time for a moment to pick up on something Mike said, do we have a date? When all of the, and keep in mind, this was when the trade rumors were.

hot he had demanded a trade or requested a trade teams had trades on the table were waiting for it to be done people are reporting it's going to happen so this is back in july mike uh shared this with us and trading away iuk just say it just say it you coward say it's a guarantee i guarantee brandon i yuk is on the 49ers this team or this year the contract extension clip it's i just believe it so we can play this and with triumphant noise behind it yeah Yeah, there it is. Pretty Mikey. I, you never wavered. Now, the problem was you had them on your team. So it was hard to know how much was wishful thinking and how much was prognostication. But it was, it was all about my team, guys. I'll be, I'll be honest with everyone right now. I needed him to sign back with the Niners. And the reports coming out around this move have been very interesting, including the fact, I mean, this is a long two month saga. It's been annoying.

And he was a coward. And who was a coward? Brandon Ayuk, you were a coward. Oh, you're changing. Why is he a coward? Because yesterday it was John Lynch was the coward. Yeah. And guess who backed down? We found out that John Lynch didn't change his offer. John Lynch didn't push one more penny on that contract. I saw plenty of people saying that that's also not true. I mean, Adam Schefter did report that. I'll just put that out there. Shefter talked specifically about. The contracts offered from three other teams as well as from John Lynch. Yeah, but it was the 12th of, he did mention specifically that the offer hasn't changed since August 12th. This saga has gone on a lot longer, so it's very possible there was some negotiation before that date. And then maybe on that date, San Francisco said, this is the best we're going to do. You've already shopped. We already know what the market is. We've got a deal set up with Pittsburgh. We will not trade you. This is what's also being reported unless we get back.

a top flight wide receiver that because we're in our window our championship window yeah that's why it never made sense so they offered it's been reported already that they offered a third rounder to denver for courtland sutton that was turned down Denver yeah Denver what are you doing baby Denver you're not you could have got third you could have had a third in the future you're not winning championships this year could have gotten something for Sutton but they didn't and we also knew that they'll get nothing Nothing for Sutton. Little Sun Sutton. Anything else we got? That's it. We're dry. So they couldn't get back somebody. And this, it's funny because this is the most businessy business extension of all time. Because Iyuk wanted more money. And the 49ers were willing to let him go. Both of those are 100% true. And yet they came together on a deal. So it's like it was the reluctant partnership of two parties. It's a business transaction. It's a push towards the Super Bowl.

The thing that's weird to me, correct me if I'm wrong, vet me. I believe it was reported 27.7 million per year was the offer from the Steelers, which Ayukes seemed ready to sign. Ayuk was happy to go to the Steelers. Right. And so it's like, but that was less money than he ended up getting from the Niners, which he was, which he reluctantly signed. Well, what is the, what is the per year deal? Because there's, there's guarantees of 76 million. Yeah, I think that's the, the reports came out saying that the offer, like, The total offer hadn't changed. We don't know that maybe the guarantee went from 70 to 76 or something like that. And then IUC's like, okay, good. Because it really is for NFL contracts, the guaranteed money is everything. The 120 looks great. Maybe he gets there. Maybe he plays out the contract. But once he's through his guaranteed money, then this is why the guys fight for their contract. Because once the guarantee is gone, then the team can just be like, eh.

You're out. You're too expensive now. We're not going to fulfill our part of the contract. Yeah, that's normally when the player starts looking for that another guaranteed extension. And Iuke, is he worth this? For an NFL team, I believe 100%. I think he proved it. The Patriots were willing to give him $32 million a year. That was the report. Yeah. And he was easily like, nah. Nah, I don't want to go there. Yeah, it was a dance. So pretty Mike, you got it right. Yeah, baby. When asked about the status of Pooka Naku's knee injury, Sean McVeigh said he'll be ready to roll for week one. There has been a little bit of buzz around the fact that this injury could linger. It also could be a re-injury risk.

And so that is, that's worthwhile, and it's not the last you're going to hear about it today. Robert Sala said Mike Williams will be available to play in week one. He said he's feeling good. That's, that's pretty big news in the sense that this is a, like if Mike Williams were fully healthy, if he was there in training camp and was practicing with this team in full, it was never injured. Let's just say he was never injured. What would you think of the number two wide receiver for Aaron Rogers and this offense? He'd probably be what, wide receiver 36, 40? Yeah, it's going to say 7th. And right now he's, you know, he's got to be wide receiver 80 or something. You can get him at the very end of your draft. Yeah, the news was starting to bend this direction over the last week and a half. So I've been paying attention to him late in drafts. Yeah, I don't think you need, I'm not overreacting and over drafting him from this news. Like I'm not, but when you're the double digit rounds and you're looking at just, just nasty boys here.

Mike Williams, Mike Williams will have multiple spike weeks in a range of wide receivers that they, those guys probably won't. Mike Williams or Michael Wilson. I would rather have Michael Wilson for the upside of consistency. Like, I like Mike Williams this year in baseball quite a bit. He will have some long bomb touchdowns. But I, you know, despite what I just said, he is not. uninjured. He is still coming back from an ACL. It will be a slow progress to get back on the field at 100%. Now, Jason, we're really going to need your work on this one because we've heard it the other direction. Mike McCarthy has told reporters that Rico Dowdo will get fewer special team snaps, not none, this season because of his expected increased workload on offense. Yeah, no, this is great news. So it's really clear. This time of year, when you're a week away from the NFL draft,

If you are a running back and you're put on special teams like Kyron Williams, you're toast. You're done. Your career is over. And if you're taken away from special teams, you're the best. So you heard it here on the fantasy footballers. Rico Dowdle great. Kyron Williams bad because of special teams. Here's. Go ahead and clip that one too. Here's what I will say. Because the Rico Dowdle love is, it is bold prediction stuff. It is low probability. It is yours. And it is mine. I will hold on to it. And this is just part of a drumbeat of I'm hoping that talent wins out. And in my opinion, Rico Dowdle, when pads are on and NFL games are being played, we'll be by far the best running back for Dallas. He'll have the most juice. And this is just a, the window was opening for him to take the job, as in.

He doesn't have to sit around and wait for Zeke to get hurt in his time. This is if you go out and you're the best guy, you'll take it. I'm not doubting pretty Mikey. Yeah, I mean, I'm not doubting pretty Mikey. He was. He was right. He was right about the last thing. He was. Yeah. But don't go back to Charles Jarwin over there. Oh, ACL. Yeah, that hurt. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com. slash insurance we are going to take a quick break right out of the gate because i want to jump into our fantasy MVP picks all right we are yes now kyle kyle that was a joke yes it was a charles darwin blake jarwin combination it wasn't the right time for it we never used it before it wasn't but i just wanted it when am i going to talk about blake jarwin again where i can try it on for sight i know look that is

I mean, Charles Darwin, survival of the fittest. He was not fit. Right. He tore his ACL. Thank you. I like it. Mike, he's pieced together for me. I had no idea who you were talking about. Oh, you just moved on. I just was like, I heard Jarwin and a. You knew. He knew it. Look. Pretty Mikey's got me on lockdown over there. You think, you think my antenna I don't fly up when someone says Jarwin still? Like, who you want to talk about Blake Jarwin? By the way, which Coles does he work at? I believe it's the one on Happy Valley. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. He's an assistant manager though, guys. Yeah, he's worked his way up. He's doing pretty good stuff. General is well within his grass. Blake, Blake to clothing. All right. We're just jerks. It's time to jump in. Who's your fantasy MVP? All right, guys. How do you define a fantasy football MVP? Because this episode is one of my favorite every year. We get to share the difference making player on our list and plant the flag. I mean, that's really what it is. It's just it's a player. Yeah, Kyle has found Blake Jarwin on LinkedIn. Yeah. Well, Kyle's assistant manager. That's not real, Kyle. Are you seriously a third degree away from Blake Jarwin? That's a dude. No. This is real? What's he up to? Oh, he's an investor now.

He did make, like, guys, he did get some money in the NFL. But so back to Fantasy MVP, when we invite these other experts on, though I'd say, this is whatever you want it to be. It's your favorite early pick, your favorite value, sleeper, just the player you're the most confident in. I think for the three of us, and maybe I'm speaking out of turn here, but for me, it's pretty much who was my runner up for my guy? that wasn't like it wasn't in the top three for my guy but it's a it's an MVP pick that's true i'll add the caveat that i wouldn't i personally wouldn't choose a fantasy MVP that was not capable of carrying a big load for your fantasy team because like a couple like three or four years ago i had darnel mooney as a as a my guy and that he was like a ninth round pick that year

That's not going to be my fantasy MVP because I don't think Mooney was going to go all the way to carrying my team. But that's just how I define it. That's why I asked the question. Sure. Yeah. And for me, it's different every year. Sometimes there's some explosive, like I believe last year was Bejohn, you know, an explosive guy that I really think is going to make a gigantic impact. This year, I know for me, my MVP is going to be someone that I think. fits into drafts perfectly. It's about where this player is going, what he represents for your team, and how you could construct a roster around him. So it can be anything. It could be a first rounder. It could be a late rounder to me. Is he going to help you win a championship? Because at the end of the year, that's all that matters. All right. We put the call out. And we've got some experts, some friends of the show sharing their fantasy football MVP for 2024.

So we're going to jump right in. And we're going to start with Rich Rebar. He was on last year's episode as well. He is the fake football meteorologist over at Sharp Football Analysis. And we love what Warren Sharp and that team do. So let's hear from Rich Rebar. My guy this year is Fantasy Voldemort. He must not be named, but we are going to name him. It is Kyle Pitts. Let's take a step back a moment because I know he's been a disappointing asset, but he won't even turn 24 until this October. Travis Kelsey didn't have his first thousand yard season until age 27 or catches first pass in the NFL until a month before turning 25. Pitts is only three months older than Sam LaPorte. We have a lot of meat left on the bone. This transition to Kirk Cousins and Zach Robinson cannot be understated over the past three seasons under Arthur Smith.

the Falcons were 30th in the NFL and dropback rate since entering the league pits. 16.2% of his targets have been inaccurate via the quarterback. The only tight end of the higher rate is Darren Waller. Kirk Cousins had the second lowest inaccuracy rate in 2020. He has the sixth lowest inaccuracy rate to tight ends. He also has the six lowest inaccurate rate on throws 10 or more yards further downfield to be considered pits to still be a vertical pass catcher. We're going to see him just get more access to easy buttons in the Zach Robinson offense. 22.4% of his routes last season were go route.

the highest of any tight end to run 300 more routes last season. And 15.8% of his targets have been 20 or more yards downfield. Only Darren Waller has been a head of higher rate since Pitts entered the NFL. Factoring in Zach Robinson, Kirk Cousins, a depressed ADP that's a pricing and ultimate upside for Drake London. This is the year to finally get on board with Kyle Pitts. Look, I heard one word, depressed. I heard that. He was in there. And that's a good word to describe the Kyle Pitts managers the last three years. But I mean, look, I've been golden ticketed. Obviously, I'm a big believer. Right. If you listen to the live show, we know that you are all in on Kyle Pitts. There's a price for Kyle Pitts. I actually took him in my last two drafts because he just kept slipping. You know, there's a spot for him because he represents an upside, albeit.

a downside as well because eventually we're going to paint every possible picture for Kyle Pitts to be successful and if he doesn't do it in any of those we'll give up but um it is it is worth noting that you know we we talk about guys at their ADP a lot on the show who's a good value who you know we're talking about picks we like and picks we don't but I think it gets overblown sometimes with the ones we don't like we have not been all in on Kyle Pitts where he's being drafted. Devante Adams, I've had as a guy that I see as a bad pick early on the live show. You talked about Anthony Richardson, Andy, about he's not going to be the quarterback five. And so if you're drafting in the megalible, or just your homely, and they all listen to this show, and they're used to the takes we have, when we have been doing our live drafts this week, our listener league. I've seen it.

Dude, Stefan Diggs, Devante Adams, Kyle Pitts, Anthony Richardson, guys we have talked about being just a bad value, a bad pick. They've dropped so far their freaking awesome picks. Yeah, we got them right where we want them, boys. I got Devante Adams in the fifth round of our listener league. That's incredible value. These aren't players that are. So I'm just saying like, don't overreact to what we're saying. React appropriately. You know, I, I still think Devonthe Adams is a bad pick at the one-two turn, but, you know, in the fifth round, go for it. The pits drum beat is building in the fantasy community because Rich is not alone when we got our submissions from experts and friends of the show. We got the lead fantasy analyst at Pro Football Focus, Nathan Yonke, who is sharing his MVP. Who could it be? I don't know.

Hey, after listening to your top 10 titan episode, I knew my MVP had to be Kyle Pitts. He's still a talented tight end, top five by PFF grade over the last three years, and is still only 23 years old. We'll be 24 by this season, but he's still younger than some of the tight ends in the rookie class. But he had a lot working against him last year. He was not running enough routes. He was not seeing enough short targets, and he did not have good enough quarterback play. He averaged 25 routes per game over the past two seasons, which a lot of that had to do with them being a very run-heavy offense. But he was also taken off the field way too much. Typically, was seeing around 64% of offensive snaps last year, only two games above 75%. Expect that to increase significantly to around 30 routes per game, so a 20% increase. Also, his average depth of target of 20%.

12.7 is very high for a tight end. Expect that to be going down a bit. If you only counted tight end's deep passing work and intermediate passing work, he would already be a top three or four fantasy tight end. He just needs to see more of those short targets. And Tyler Higbee, the Rams tight end the past couple years, averaged up the target 4.3 recently. So I expect him to see a lot more shorter targets. And then the quarterback play. He's had the second worst quarterback play of all teams just behind the Jets. Expect with Kirk Cousins that to be a lot better. We expect Garrett Wilson to be playing a lot better with a better quarterback, expecting the same out of pits. So thank you for having me and have a good one.

All right. Thank you, Nathan. And Jason, you always give Mr. Yonki his flowers, right? The way he's handled all the preseason. Oh, yes. Dude, his preseason work is second to none. Yeah, it's a great, great follow. I try to tweet out his stuff and, and, and share it. I mean, he's, he's personally doing snap counts on, on everyone. It's, it's, it's awesome. Um, he saw pits part two. Yeah, I mean, you've got two guys. He must be the MVP. Well, I mean, these are two people who know what they're talking about. They're well respected, well respected by us. We're having people on the show that we think have good, strong opinions that are outside of our own bubble. One of them we don't respect. We're not saying which one. Yeah, you can figure it out. It's Kyle. Yeah, I can't wait. I can't wait for after Kyle's take. Yes.

That's going to be a special moment on our show today. A special final moment. But it's worth, special final moment. It's worth saying, like, you know, we have not been in on Kyle Pitts, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. And Kyle Pitts is obviously very, very, he is hopefully still a very, very powerful athlete. Right. He didn't look like it last year, but at 24 years old, you can't write the guy off. No question. There are, if there's a player that has. probably had delivered more burns to fantasy managers. It's hard to find one other than Kyle Pitts because the expectations were so high. The draft capital, what you saw as a rookie, touchdowns have never been there. But those are all a ton of good points by Rich and Nathan. We're going to turn now to where are we going? We're going Ben Gretsch. Ben Gretch, yep. From the stealing signals newsletter. My fantasy MVP is your three wide receiver, Garrett Wilson.

As long as Aaron Roger stays healthy and doesn't go off on an ayahuasca journey in mid-October, I expect Wilson to take his place among the elites at the position in 2024. It's not really there in his past data, in part because Zach Wilson couldn't read out defenses and get the pall-down field last year, which led to Breeze Hall leading the NFL's running backs and targets in 2023, even in a year where he was returning from an ACL injury. But when you watch what Wilson does well, it's apparent it will translate with Rogers. I expect a massive target share in an offense that doesn't have strong secondary weapons. And with the way Rogers operates in the red zone with a high-

pass rate and the types of timing routes that Wilson can win on. I think double digit TDs are just the beginning with a 15 plus season well in the range of outcomes. If Wilson does what I'm hoping for, he'll be the answer, given those tough draft slots at the end of the first round, a score that can match the top five picks. All right, Ben. Those are some big work. The 15 touchdown stands out because you can't help but think of Devante Adams alongside Aaron Rogers in the peak. And that was the name of the game with with Adams and with Rogers. Even if the yardage wasn't there, Rogers would throw three or four a game and it was, you know, and you knew one or two was going to Adams. If Wilson is that guy for this team? He is. He is that guy for this team. He is one. Is Rogers that Rogers for this team? No. No, he's not. That's the issue. If Garrett Wilson was playing with 2018 Aaron Rogers, then Garrett Wilson should be picked, you know, right after C.D. Lamb. Well, I mean, what is? Wilson has like seven.

Yeah, seven total receiving touchdowns. In his first two years, which is not going to get it done for the draft capital you have to spend on it. So you do need to see the step up. But if you get it and Wilson ventures into the wide receiver three to five category being drafted where he is, that is fantasy MVP worthy. There is a huge tear break to me, just gigantic. Once you get after the AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson. Chase Amon Ross St. Brown, like those guys are awesome. I want them so bad in the first round. But you get to this break after those specific players. And I think Puka has gone because of the knee injury. He's gone a step below that tier. So now when you're talking about, I want a wide receiver at the back of the first, the top of the second. And you're talking about Garrett Wilson. You're talking about Puka and Marvin Harrison, Devonte Adams, Chris Oliva.