Fantasy Football - Underrated or Overrated + THE MEGALASHOW RETURNS! - Podcast for 6/16

We got Andy and Jason with overrated. Mike with underrated. I will say this. If you had told me this was like dome outdoor splits, I would have answered differently. Yeah. For me, why I think home road splits are overrated is because I think it really only impacts one position. You're not really going to be making massive starts, like decisions on your wide receivers, on your running backs based on... Like, if you've got a running back, you don't really get a chance to be like, well, you can be more excited. Oh, he's at home. You know, so great. Maybe he'll do better.

But you're going to start him. The quarterback is like, okay, I'm streaming the position. I need to know. And then I'm looking at home road splits. I am. And I think they can be valuable there. But the big truth is they kind of... It's chaos. And chaos usually comes back to normal. So even guys who, for a while, have big home road splits, oftentimes then it evens out. You see that with Jared Goff. Like, you know, in 2022, he was a plus 10 points a game more at home than on the road. Last year it was, you know, four points.

The year before, 3.4. Yeah, I agree that the chaos does, you know, we have stats that they regress to the mean and things like that. But I'm just saying, I'm speaking more of, like, one-offs of, like, when I'm doing my analysis. I would much rather my offense be at home. Like, I want that home cooking with the refs. I want the crowd to be quiet when my players are at home. You know, auxiliary guys, just, they're much better at home. This is just part of competitive sports. Is that something you actionably, you just start to say decisions a lot based off of that?

I would say a good amount. Is that a flex spot thing or a streaming quarterback thing? Yeah. Yeah, I lean into it. I mean, I really, I do pay close attention to when teams are in controlled weather environments. Yes. Which, as a person who still enjoys watching games that have chaos. Not with your fantasy players. I still predictability changes when I don't have to worry about swirling winds or rain or sleet or snow, even if it's fun to watch. I do play, I pay close attention to that. That will be a difference maker for me frequently is if I think my guy's going to be in a controlled environment where it's very, you know.

Yeah, I mean, we look at this, home road. We look at dome games. We look at, obviously, defensive matchups a lot. Those are all things that go into the start-sit tool every single week. Yeah, you look at everything. But I would say that the home road, I agree, Mike. Obviously, I prefer my guy at home than on the road. Unless you're Tyreek Hill, who always dominates on the road. That's so weird. You know, but at the same time, when I'm looking at picking up a matchup or making a start of the week or whatever, or if I'm building the DFS lineup, I think the defensive matchup, I would put above it.

The Vegas over-under, I would put above it. You know, those type of things. So, I just think it's not that huge. Zero running back draft strategy. Underrated or overrated, if you don't know what that is. Managers kind of drafting and avoiding running backs in their early rounds. Bet on a bunch of guys later that have the opportunity to step up into roles that matter. And it's leaning into the predictive nature of the chaos. The running back position is the position that just they get hurt. And to project a full 17 games for any running back is just, you shouldn't do it.

You should never project 17. Well, and if you did that this last year, it worked really well. Yes. It really did. But it is chaotic. So, this one is equally hard to my heart. Is this one tough for you? It's not tough, but I hate my answer. All right. Underrated, overrated, zero RB strategy, 3-2-1. Underrated, baby. I agree. I'm the only one that answered overrated. Both of you guys said underrated. And the year really matters. You've got to be paying attention to the, like, zero running back. You know, shout out again to Sean Siegel. Anti-fragility, this type of stuff. It's the market and knowing who's, you know, where you're investing so much in your first

round running back. It's the position that gets hurt the most. It's a risk reward, right? Because, you know, everything of Christian McCaffrey last year, the entire discourse is just, does Christian McCaffrey get hurt? Because if he doesn't get hurt, then he is the greatest pick in fantasy football. If he does get hurt, we all go, oh, we should have seen to come in. And then everyone, I told you he was going to get hurt. And because it's your first rounder, it's just devastating to your team. And meanwhile, while those running backs are getting hurt, there's running backs on the waiver wire or backup running backs that you're stashing that just gain value.

And this year in particular, because everyone stayed healthy last year. Which, by the way, everyone stayed healthy to the tune of the first 13 running backs, all but one played 15 or more games. Yeah, and honestly, they're almost all just sitting the last week. The guys that played 16 games this year, almost everybody was just like sat the last week of the season. It was an injury. And it was week 18 when we weren't playing fantasy. And look, we've certainly seen years where it's been a terrible decision. We had the Zemir White, Zach Moss, Drum Ford, Rico Dowdle year. This is Dallas Rico Dowdle, not last year.

He was relevant for a while. Hey, Dallas second half, Rico, was great. Second half of the second half, maybe. Yeah. But listen, here's one of my problems with it. We all acknowledge, A, we acknowledge the running back is fundamentally crucial to fantasy. B, very difficult to find running backs beyond the draft on the waiver wire. You fight for a couple of them. It doesn't happen very often where they're difference-making backs that weren't drafted. C, the running backs you draft in late rounds, guess what? They're also running backs. They don't have like an immunity to injury either, right? So not only do you have to hit on them being healthy instead of your front end guys being

healthy, but you also have to hit on them being successful when they're not drafted in a place where they can be. And you end up with Zemir White and Zach Moss and Jerome Ford and Rico Dowdle. So to me, it feels like more of a little bit more lottery of a strategy where like you really, if you hit, if you execute it and you hit the big Darren Sproles late or the big name later in the draft, the Bucky Irving of his rookie season, you got one of those. You pick up one. Maybe hero RB is the strategy that's a little looser where you take one and you wait forever.

I might be more amicable to that because shoot your shot on three or four guys. But to me, if you, if you go zero, you wait the whole way. I feel like you have to hit, you have to scratch off three tickets in a row and hit the right thing. It is, it is more of a lottery high upside outcome, which is when you're shooting for a championship in your, in your fantasy league. And this is why it's pretty often that if you've got a larger tournament play, a zero RB strategy ends up winning because the highest upside is, Oh my gosh, I had all of these

studs at all these positions. I could draft my onesies and then I didn't lose the running backs and my, the running backs I hit late work better. So the highest upside I think is zero RB, but I, the reason I hate playing, I hate playing zero RB. I don't enjoy it as much because you really have to, the first part of the season is just brutal while you're trying to scratch and claw and wait for these injuries and get the right guy or have, have your guy pop off. And this season, I just think the entire world is set up for it to work.

Right. We were coming, we're coming off of that's what I'm talking about. Yeah. From year to year, I think it changes. And when I look at guys late, it's like, well, are there guys worth drafting? Like, you know, Kenny Gainwell, Rashad white, you got some guys that I think are, are super, super late that are, um, Jonathan Brooks, Jonathan Brooks. Absolutely. Those are the names. I mean, even bill, um, you, you take your shot on whichever one out of that backfield you want. Um, Jadarian price will probably go up later towards draft, but right now he's a super low draft pick.

So, I mean, last year was a season where CMC, Derek Henry and McCaffrey, or sorry, and B. John were the top three most rostered players on championship teams. And so, yeah, I agree. You do see the pendulum swing a little bit, but that, that pendulum is not, you know, that may, that may make people draft more running backs in the first couple of rounds because they feel more confident about it, but it doesn't make late round running backs more likely to hit or less likely to hit. It just, that, that gamble is still present from year to year. It doesn't, it doesn't change that.

And it's, I would say the, it, of course your goal is to hit on Bucky or Kyron, but it's just the, the, the, the point of it is you can stack your team with, you know, like, so you, you can find usable running back weeks on a waiver wire. Maybe it's not, it's not a long-term solution, but you're, it is, but you're more likely to find those to piece together. Then you're going to find elite wide receivers like you don't, there's maybe one a year where you're like, Oh, this guy comes out of nowhere where we really didn't see the path and we

should have, and we pick them like the Puka, you know, you have one Puka and the, and then next year, who's the new Puka? It's not, it doesn't, cause that doesn't happen, but we find running backs to fill in the gaps while we, and then we're overloaded with wide receivers, uh, in elite tight end and elite quarterback. So I'm talking about like the weeks where like, as a Patriot, you could start like Terrell Jennings out of nowhere for a single week. Oh, it always, they always show up. You just, you have to be very diligent in, in how you are structuring your, and, and when

you say zero running backs, it's just, you're starting with zero running backs. You're going probably like five or six rounds before you are starting to look at the running back position. Cause like, man, like Dobbins, we've already listed a handful of them. I think there's plenty of guys here this year that I would be, I would love to have an elite wide receiver tight end team and then pick up these scraps of running back. And know your league. Cause this is just one strategy. Any strategy can work. I've seen people, I mean, you, you, you can win if you just log out and, and auto draft and

then, um, you know, do your best. It's not setting the best foundation you can, but you can win a number of ways. Know your league. And if I, if I was in a league that I knew everyone is like super hungry, needy at running back, like this league takes all running backs. The first couple of rounds, like way higher than normal ADP. That is the perfect league to go ZRRB because the valuable high end receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks get pushed down. So round after round, after round, you're getting superstar, superstar, superstar. Exactly. And you're, you're sacrificing running back. You're going to be like, Ooh, this is feeling uncomfortable, but that's using your tears.

That's the strategy. Like crying tears. No, no, no. The drafting tears. That's the crying. Available in the ultimate draft kit for Zach Moss is the crying tears. Uh, yeah, the Zach Moss was, but then the Brown worked out. He did. I went overrated. You guys both went underrated on that one. Bo Nix is the next one. Oh, Bo Nix. Uh, I, this one was not hard for me. Um, Bo Nix underrated, overrated three, two, one. Okay. So Jason and I both went underrated. Mike was overrated. We're very confident with the, I was, I mean, this should have been when I was, uh, overrated.

Yeah. When, when I was looking at the show doc in preparation of this, I thought I would say overrated, um, because he's, he's not been very consistent, even though his quarterback finishes has been great. But then I just, I looked at where he's being drafted. He's the, you know, he's the quarterback 15 right now. He's one of my favorite picks. Double digit rounds. He's been a top 10 quarterback. And then you add Jalen Waddell. And I really genuinely think that is a, a massive need for Bo Nix. Pat Bryant. Oh, I love me some Pat Bryant. Yeah. I mean, they just extended.

Don't bury the lead. He's still there guys. He's buried. I'm going to bury that lead. He is. Yeah. They've said Bryant's the wide receiver three. Yeah. I just don't think we've seen the best fantasy season from Bo Nix yet. And I think we're going to get one of those. Last year it was Drake man, Bo Nix that were both late round darlings with opportunity worked out for one of them. Bo Nix wasn't the one that it worked out for. He's tied with Russell Wilson for the most wins by a quarterback through the first two seasons of his career. He's got the fourth most fantasy points scored by a quarterback through the first two seasons

of his career, which is crazy because Jason's right. He hasn't been consistent. He's had, he's had games that are emotionally destroyers of your soul. You've drafted him to be something. Then he gets a whole matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, the worst team in football on a Thursday night and they score nine points and win the game. And you're like, it's almost, it almost reflects so much worse on Bo Nix when you win that way. Then losing. It's like, it wasn't, it's like you can win that way. So maybe we'll try. I have a schedule question for you, Andy. Yeah.

Uh, so here, this is what the Denver Broncos start the year with on the road against Kansas city at home against Jacksonville at home against the Rams on the road against the 49ers and then on the road against the chargers. Good. I feel good because now somebody's in the score on their defense. Exactly. I don't, I don't see that as a bad thing. Those are tough matchups for sure. They're, they're good teams, but I think you need good offenses against the Broncos defense. Those are just thrown. Those are some defenses that to start your year. I mean, that that's like, that's a hard part of drafting Bo Nix.

Your first round matchup is on the road in Arrowhead. Let's say, let's just play it out. Bo Nix takes a leap forward this year. He gets Jalen Waddle. It makes a difference. He looks like, oh, this is, this is, you know, one of the upper echelon guys. He does what Drake may did in year two. He does it in year three or whatever. If he were to do that this year, and that's what you're, if you're drafting Bo Nix, that's the only reason you're drafting him is you're hoping, hey, he takes that leap with Waddle. So if that happens, these are the type of games where they're going to be high scoring games

in these tough, good team matchups. So you're going to find out quick. To Mike's credit, like his best games last year, number one overall, maybe I'm stealing it from your arsenal here. Number one overall finish against the Giants. Number three overall finish against the Bengals. Number seven overall finish against the Cowboys. Who could have seen these coming? I will say this. Number two overall finish against the Packers. Yep. What week was that? 15. It was post-Michael Parsons. Yeah, that was when they were toast, man. He also had weeks of 27 and 25 overall against Tennessee and Las Vegas. So that's been the problem.

He makes weird throws sometimes, weird decisions, and doesn't perform when you expect him. By the way, I say all that, last year's quarterback six in fantasy, Bo Nix. Yeah, but the points per game is, he's at 17.9 points per game. That was under what he did as a rookie and yet a higher overall finish at quarterback. The quarterback Zay Flowers? I mean, when I look at the ADP on Sleeper right now, you got Bo Nix, and then going after him is Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Malik Willis, Baker Mayfield, Tyler Shutt. I don't want any of those guys. That guys I would take over Bo Nix.

Yeah. You said you wouldn't, right? I would. Oh, really? Those are all guys I would not take over Bo Nix. Those are all 100% guys I would not take over Bo Nix. Because Bo Nix's upside is so much better than all those guys. I would take the shot. Week one. Who did it? I mean, you're going to put Jordan Love as your starting quarterback over Bo Nix? It's possible. But I was more, I was like, like Goff, Malik Willis. You stood by your thumbs down, man. Yeah. Wasn't there a time when Bo Nix was like, I thought you were into this.

Yes. Last year, Bo Nix was very interesting. And then he, I mean, he does all those things you were talking about. And yet of among 38 qualifying quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks, he was 30th and off target rate. Like that's, that's horrifically bad. When he's pressured, he was tied with Shadur Sanders and JJ McCarthy in yards for pass attempt. Like the, he's, he is the best quarterback on the Broncos. Like I think they go, they probably go to the Superbowl if he wasn't unfortunately hurt. But for fantasy purposes, he was a C inconsistency 41% of the time above 20 points.

Kyle just shared 33% of his points came in those three games you talked about. Jordan Love was a 29% though. So I'm still going to take Bo Nix. Sam Laporta. Oh man. We have to. I'm glad we're doing this one. Nice. I'm glad we're doing this one. It's easy for me. It's so easy. Well, I know your answer. Of course. Oh, I don't have an answer yet. Take a second, Mike. It's all right. Take your time. That's L-A-P-O-R-T-A. Laporta. Okay. Is that now, now you're ready? Yeah, I'm ready. Sam Laporta, three, two, one. Underrated. Ba-bang! Oh, I'm so happy that this is the only one.