Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WR's in 2015, Part 1

in a way that's going to very much affect other players. I think that he'll probably miss the whole year. So for me, with that being considered, Doug Baldwin has such a great repertoire going right now with Russell Wilson. I believe that... The word is rapport. Yes, it is. Not repertoire. Do they...

Mike didn't even care. Yeah, he's fine with it. He just let it go. Because at my head, it was like they do, they're good. They got the song of dance, like the Fred Astaire. They tap dance together. They got a couple songs that can break out. They've got a good rapport. Yes. People can't have a Robertsville together, I don't think. You saw over the second half of the season though. Five, six, seven, eight. You saw over the second half of the season though.

That was his first read and that was, oh my goodness, when they were in the red zone. I don't know, man. He was looking Doug Baldwin's way probably too much. We'll probably have a Doug Baldwin show. That's the amount of debate that could be taken. 78 catches in just over 1,000 yards. There's only one reason he's here. He's here because of 14 touchdowns. Those numbers, we've seen it before. They're very hard to repeat. He's not a prototypical end zone receiver. I don't project Dick Baldwin in the top as a wide receiver won at all next year. But how about this?

This take, I think the Seahawks offense is transitioning. I don't think Marshawn Lynch will be there. Thomas Rawls will be the guy. But they'll run it through Russell Wilson's arm. And Russell Wilson will be the guy. Usually they have the, when they have the Monday night football promos, you know, they put the guy in the front. That's the superstar of the team. It's now Russell Wilson. Doug bald when erupted. You know who else was great? Now down the stretch?

Tyler Lockett, that guy is coming, and he is good, he is fast, and he is a highly skilled wide receiver. You take those in with just the mindset of we don't have Beast Mode anymore. Thomas Rawls is great. I think he's going to be an RV1 next year, but I think this is Russell Wilson's team.

Like you said, the offense will go through Russell. You saw it after they're by. They're week nine by. They come out hot and heavy in week 10. And so here are the best. If you pull the touchdowns off, but you keep the game planning going, his numbers could go up on the receptions and yardage and down on the touchdown. Exactly. Because once they came out of that buy, they really wore Russell Wilson's team. You saw that he is Russell Wilson's number one target.

And so let me tell you from week 10 on, from a fantasy football perspective, here are the top wide receivers for that second half of the year. Brandon Marshall, number one, Antonio Brown, number two, Alan Robinson, number three, Sammy Watkins. So, Odell Beckham, and I'm subtracting one off of all these guys, because number one.

was actually Doug Baldwin ahead of all of those guys for the entire second half of the year. So is he a top 10 wide receiver next year? I don't think he's going to be drafted that way. No, but how did he finish? How do you project him? I think he finishes as a wide receiver, as a back end wide receiver one. I see him in that 10 to 12 range finish, and I think you're going to be able to get him at a better value than that. Maybe. I would only draft him in the two area.

I'm not comfortable doing it. As a two? Yes, me too. I agree. I would draft him as a two. Over under fourth round for Doug Baldwin. For where you would draft him and where do you see him being drafted in most redrafts? He would get drafted higher than that. I would say, I would love to take him in the fourth round. I think he'll probably go higher. And I would probably be willing to take him in the third. That's a hot take.

That's hot Doug Baldwin. It's super early. There are so many variables that need to work themselves out. It's kind of, it's nuts to look at his first and second half of the season. He had six straight weeks in the first half of the season where he had three or less catches in each game. And then the buy week hit and they were a different team. And obviously you can't count on, I mean, you do those numbers. One, four, six, nine, twelve touchdowns in the second half of the year. That is unbelievable.

Doug Baldwin. That's a 24 touchdown page. Next year, 24 touchdown. This is way too early. But here are guys that I think are going to be drafted ahead of Doug Baldwin, who I would not. I think you might see Fitz. You would not. I would not. Fitz, T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry, Martavis Bryant, Calvin Benjamin, Amari Cooper. All of those guys, I think, are going to go in drafts ahead of.

Doug Baldwin, and I think Doug Baldwin finishes the year ahead of them. It's speculative. It is hard to repeat touchdowns when you're not prototypically built for it. It's hard even when you are. I mean, Jordy Nelson in 2011 came out. He went from 2 to 15. And the world was on fire. He was going as high as you could be. The next year he came out and he had 7. It wasn't a bad year. It's just really hard to do. Lock it. I don't see any talent reason why Lockett couldn't completely inverse.

The trend, you know, where Lockett's the better guy next year. That's the problem. You're going to draft Doug Baldwin, and maybe you should because he's the one looked at. But Lockett, why couldn't Lockett do the same thing? Absolutely. And that's why I think a myriad of combinations is why I think Doug Baldwin's going to go very low. I think you can get him in the fourth. And maybe, yeah, maybe I'm going to pay the Piper on him too. I mean, it could happen. Those are some insane numbers in the second half. I'm just, it's kind of like trading the stock.

when it's as high as it could possibly be. You just don't have, you know, trying to buy it, trying to buy the stock when it's at the very peak. He is buying it. How can you get better than what is second half of it? Right, right. So if he's trading at that level, he was a penny stock. He was a penny stock. I just watched Wolf of Wall Street like two nights ago. Oh, is that why you said it was funny? Yeah. All right. So AJ Green is number eight. He was the guy.

when we were putting these numbers together that had the most surprising statistic to me of everybody, which was his consistency rating. He was terribly inconsistent. He was the 27th most consistent wide receiver. And, you know, when you're talking about a wide receiver one, he finished eighth. He was certainly drafted to be a wide receiver one. That's a guy who ruins your team. When he's not even...

As consistent as a wide receiver two, you had plenty of weeks where he was, you know, kind of, he was there. Six single digit weeks. Yeah, six single digit weeks. Out of his 10. I mean, out of his 16. And that's a half point, BBR? And a half point. And he was drafted as a wide receiver won, unless you took him on a turn and went wide receiver wide receiver. But he won, he won you week three, Jason. Well, and that's what's crazy. He certainly did.

He finished eighth, and in week three and a half point PPR, I believe he was over 40 fancy points. And then you mix in Dalton's injury? Right. Dalton gets injured, but you also have Tyler Eifer. Tyler Eifer was the reason that A.J. Green had such a up and down year because you could not rely on that red zone presence the way that you, you know, they didn't go to AJ Green. He's amazing. He is fantastic. He's amazing. He's amazing. He's amazing. 10 touchdowns again. Double-digit touchdowns again. If you look at his career,

I mean, he's done double-digit touchdowns in three of the past four years now. I mean, he kind of just does it every year about the same average. He had 86 receptions. I'd take AJ Green ahead of Doug Baldwin. I'll tell you that. Yeah, that's very fair. I would as well. I completely agree that because of Eifert in the red zone, I know it's a while back, you got to go to not this season but the season before. AJ Green, that's.

that's where Dalton would look when he was trying to throw in the red zone. And that's now Eifert. So you have to adjust green down a little bit. He's still very, very high-end player because he's super talented. But I don't know if you would, I don't know if I would call him a top five going into the next year where AJ Green. That's where he usually is. Yeah. He's one of those guys that could be a value because of...

he, you know, where he's going to go. He won't drop too far, but you, if you could maybe get A.J. Greener the third round coming up next year, which I would be, I'd be bowdy, bowed it. Yes, bowdy, bowed it. Calvin Johnson was number nine. Hello. Hey. Are you saying that? I'm curious. Are you saying hello, like, that he, like, Adele or like Lionel Rich? Are you surprised that he finished that high or that low?

I think both. Well, that's what's so funny about this. It's like, you know, I got so much flak preseason for having him outside my top five because he's, of course, Calvin Johnson. He finishes nine, and then I'm kind of surprised it was that high. That reminds me of... Well, I'm surprised. That was the true reaction was, hello, I'm here. I'm still Calvin Johnson. I'm number nine, even though the sentiment and story got...

Pretty sour about him. The team stunk. He stunk on and off. It reminds me just a quick aside here. When I was talking to my daughter about, you know, we were teaching her hot and cold, and she knows the difference between hot and colds a couple years ago. So we said, okay, well, what do you call something that is not hot, but it's not cold, and she thinks, coldy hot. So Calvin Johnson was very coldy hot this year. Very fair. It was the opposite of Goldilocks.

Which is just right. What's funny is, so you had AJ Green, we just talked about, is the 27th most consistent. And yet, AJ Green only two times finished outside of the wide receiver four, where he just completely crapped your team. Calvin had four games this season where he crapped your team, and he wasn't even a wide receiver four. So that, I think, gives people a taste in their mouth of...

of coldie hot, of coldie hot, of surprise when, you know, he finishes still number nine because he had, you know, that Thanksgiving Day game and a couple games where he just went ham. The real question right now is his future. Is he back? Is he retired? Is he going to retire? Yeah, yeah. If he's back, give me Calvin Johnson next year. Now, what about the discrepancy between when he played top half teams and bottom half teams? He had a five point gap, which is one of the larger gaps that... Five?

I'm looking at three. Three point gap. 15 minus 12. Are we looking at the same numbers? 15 minus 12? Oh, yeah, you are correct. Jason, taking care of English and mathematics. Small time mathematics. Nice repertoire you got. Thank you. I'm going to let you make some of the point, though. I mean, he was better against bottom D's. You also saw another season that was...

cut in half. You know, Matt Stafford was 19 to 2 or whatever it was. Touchdown Interception ratio in the second half. Calvin ended up 10th inconsistency because, in part, he gave you three basically week-winning weeks where he was dominant. You know, he's still a red zone monster. You ISO him. When did they make the change? Sorry. Did Jim Bob Cooter? Yeah. Because I'm going to look something up. I'm going to guess we nine or ten. Okay. Yeah, I think it was at their...

their buy and they had the week nine buys so i think coming out of their buy in week 10 okay i'll look it up from there i'll look up how calvin was versus yeah that's basically what i was looking at too was calvin johnson he had uh you know he had a 31 point week in week 12 he had a monster week in week 17 um the offense was much better in the second half of the year but i mean he's calvin johnson he actually averaged almost identical fantasy points

Before and after. Calvin's a year younger than Marshall, by the way. Just for context in your head. Really? Although you may see him going down the road with his walker, he's 30. Well, but they've got very different weight, right? I would assume that Calvin's got a lot more pounds on him than Brandon Marshall. It can't be that. Brandon Marshall's very tall for a receiver, and I can't imagine it is. I'll look up Brandon. 236 for Calvin Johnson.

I don't know why we're talking weight, but... Brandon Marshall is... He's 6'4. Brandon Marshall is... He's 6'4? Yeah, he's very tall. Wow. 200... So the weight difference is 6 pounds. Well, the reason is because when you watch Calvin, when you just watch...

This year you saw a little bit more lumbering, and you didn't see that at all from Brandon Marshall. The quickness was, I feel like, still completely there for Brandon Marshall in and out of breaks, and certain games that didn't seem that way with Calvin. Okay, so outside of seeming that way, though, he ended up in the top nine. He had a bad offense for half the year. If he comes back with the same O coordinator, they're going to have the same coach, Calvin Johnson, the draft value?