Fantasy Football - AFC East Breakdown + Meow Men - Podcast for 7/11

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. You guys hear that? That's the sound of 10,000 lawnmowers. That's true. Revin' up at the exact same time. It's a Saturday show, boys. Oh! Lawns aren't ready for this. July 11th. The death of millions of blades of grass.

All happening right now. I guess they don't actually die, they're just getting a little trim. They're getting a trim. A little haircut. That's a good point. It doesn't hurt, right? The grass? I don't know. I'm going to say I don't think it hurts. No. I'm going to go on record and say I think it does. Okay. Yeah. Well, we're not botanists. We're fantasy football analysts, and we welcome you into the show. We have a divisional breakdown episode today getting into the AFC East. We have covered the North and the South on the previous two episodes. So if you want breakdowns of those teams.

This better be the East. This is the East. Okay. You wanted to see North, South, East, West? Yes. Yeah. If you're going to go in that order. This was important to you? Yes. Well, we are covering the AFC East, Mike. You can be comfortable with that. Get into some mailbag if we have extra time. A reminder, the Ultimate Draft Kit with the draft analyzer available now at ultimatedraftkit.com. We are adding a mock draft tool to the UDK this year. That should be live within the next couple of weeks on mobile, and then we'll expand to the web. But this is very exciting.

It's an opportunity for you to jump in there. Run as many mock drafts as you want. Invite your friends who have the UDK to go mock draft with you. Get a feel for where players are going, and over time you'll be able to, you know, that's why you mock, to try different strategies out, to see how it feels. Somebody had the quick question, or it was in the mailbag, maybe on the footcast, of where do you like to draft this year? Do you like to draft at the top, at the turn? You know, we all shared our opinions, but that's based on mock drafting.

It's the top. It's not always, though. No, not every year. But that's our opinion right now. Yeah, for sure. So the mock draft tool coming to the Ultimate Draft Kit that already has all of our player projections, all of our rankings, our sleepers, breakouts, busts, values, and the draft analyzer and a lot more. 100-player profile videos. Yeah, 100-plus player profile videos. You better watch them. UltimateDraftKit.com. Takes a lot of time. That's true. You can follow us on Instagram, Instagram.com slash FantasyFootballers, on X at the FFBallers. Papa Josh, you're on the microphone, right? I am. Do you know how many people are in the free Fantasy Footballers Discord right now?

I do indeed. Give me one second to switch over there. And the number is 66,800. All right, that's not bad. Yeah, he pulled that one out. Yeah, I think he saved it. 66,000 Fantasy Football players. I don't think you know what that phrase means. Mike is going to take issue with it? He doesn't. If you're like, hey, do you know this? And you're like, yeah, let me look it up real quick. He did it so fast, though, that it did feel like it was on the tip of his tongue. No, it was not. BallersDiscord.com. It's a free community of Fantasy Football players that you can join.

66,000 strong, Papa Josh? Don't forget the 800. 66,800. He could be 801. Oh, Jay, did you hear we're almost at? 70? That's going to be so nice. All right, we're going to jump in right away here on the AFC East breakdown. And we'll kick it off with a couple of teams that have a lot of fantasy value for all of us fantasy football players. Let's get divisional. I mean, if I seem slightly off, Al, who are you laughing back there? I mean, we are fresh off the golf course. I mean, we are odorous. I am covered in a mix of sunscreen and dirt.

My hands feel like disgusting. I mean, we came in. We didn't even want. We're just here and ready to go. I thought it would go faster. Mike wanted to get this shot. Not a wee. Some of us were here grinding. Rise and grind. Mike didn't golf with us. I don't know why. But. What was the temperature? It was disgusting degrees. It was nice for the first hole. It was disgusting degrees outside. It was nice. No, it was. No, no, no. Look, I can't take heat. Relative. No, it was actually nice out this morning. And then it turned into hellfire. Just saying.

So it was nice. We did leave the house. It was nice at like 515 in the morning. Yeah. So it was pretty nice at that point. It was nice for a period of. An hour. 15 minutes. Yeah, not that long. But anyways, we're just dehydrated. That's all I'm saying. Let's kick it off. Our breakdowns. We're looking at general overviews for these teams. Offseason changes. Coaches, players, rookies. How their offenses could function this year. Some of our takes on the win totals. We predict every division. A good prediction for the AFC East would be the Bills or the Patriots. Based on the last 17 years.

Patriots won every single year from 2009 to 2019. Bills won the last five. And then last year the Patriots took it back. Even this last year. So we were looking at our predictions of how we did last year, this year. And immediately we looked because we all picked the Bills to win last year. And it wasn't highlighted as a win. And we were like, wait. Yeah, the Bills won. Yeah, we got that one. Oh, no. No, we didn't. The Super Bowl losers. Oh. The Patriots, sorry. I mean, could have called them like visitors. Super Bowl. Participants? Yeah, okay. Runner-ups. Yeah.

This was the division with the largest point differential gap between second and third place teams. So the Bills were plus 116. The Dolphins were minus 77. And in third place. Oh, don't stop there. You should read the Jets one. Where were the Jets? Minus 203. Oh, boy. The haves and the have-nots. But we'll start with the Patriots. Patriots are going to be very, very interesting to project this year for fantasy. They were looking at a nine-and-a-half game win total last year from Vegas. They went seven and three and one score games. They were the healthiest team in the NFL, so they had the fewest adjusted games lost.

Their projected win total this year. You want to hear this? Mm-hmm. They won 14 games. They added A.J. Brown. Vegas has them at nine-and-a-half wins. That is- It makes sense. I mean, you can say it's disrespectful, but it is mathematical. Last year, their schedule was cake. It was so easy that 14 wins was not- They're not like an average 14-win team. They went to the Super Bowl, so you're like, well, yes, they are. But if- Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dylan Gabriel, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley, Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers. Yeah. Those were quarterbacks that they faced and defeated last year. And, you know, good on them.

Not everyone- You're supposed to do that. You're supposed to win those games. So, I don't want to do anything disrespectful here, but the schedule's going to get a lot harder. There's also the Super Bowl hangover for teams that lose the Super Bowl. It is tough the next season. So, those two things combined with the fact that this is a young team. Okay? So, you know, it was a magical season. You add that with all the off-season drama, Vrabel, and all that. Like, this is going to be a difficult, you know, really test-your-metal season, I think, for the Patriots. Well, they start the year, just so you understand, the first six weeks, they go on the road against Seattle to start the year.

That's probably the hardest matchup you could have in week one. Then they play Pittsburgh at home. Then they go on the road two more weeks. At Jacksonville, at Buffalo. So, the first four weeks of the year, they're underdogs in three games. So, yeah, they'll be put to the test immediately with a much more difficult start to the year. Then they get to play the Raiders and Jets at home, and that will maybe medicate the bad situation. But the first question for fantasy, worries about Drake May, worries about regression for Drake May. This is a quarterback that was number one in completion percentage, number one in yards per attempt, number one in passer rating.

Right now, he's at the fourth highest pass success rate of any quarterback through the first two years, behind Mahomes, Purdy, Dan Marino. Do you think he regresses for fantasy purposes? You'd love to say that A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs, those additions should ensure that he doesn't, but it's certainly a risk when you have different defenses you're playing. Yeah, a more difficult schedule. I think Drake May proved, I mean, he was the MVP runner-up. He proved he's elite. I think he's very, very good. Will he regress? Last year, he was the quarterback three in fantasy. I think some of that happened to be gifted with some injuries.

Obviously, Lamar was injured. Burrow was injured. So, you know, I feel like he was more like a quarterback five, and I think that's in the range of outcomes here. A.J. Brown coming is a huge deal for Drake May. He did not really have an alpha to throw to last year. He made it work. I think year two for Travion Henderson out of the backfield as well. You know, Ramon is really good catching the ball, but I do think that they will transition a little bit more to Travion in the passing game, and that will be more explosive. So, you know, I think more of the same for Drake May, but the same won't feel as good this year as it did last year

because other players won't be injured. Sometimes I wonder when an alpha comes in here that is as demanding, vocal as A.J. Brown, sometimes I wonder if it serves the team or it doesn't when you had— I think it does early. Well, you had an offense that was very, like, the ball could go anywhere, right? It was Booty. It was Hooper, and it was Hunter Henry and Diggs, and it was spread around a lot. But it also means you have, you know, a great touchdown opportunity on a regular basis with A.J. Brown. I think mostly my opinion, projecting it in fantasy, I've pretty much played it like Drake May is going to roll it back.

Like he's going to run it back with very similar output from a fantasy perspective. You know, they are a team—we've talked a lot about this—they're a great defense, and Vrabel's going to have a great defense. They were number two in points per game, number eight in yards per game. Something to keep in mind in some of those matchups. But, Mike, where did you project Drake May to finish? I still have him being a very solid fantasy player, but there's just—we know historically that he had a 6.3 touchdown percentage. Like, when you're up that high, it generally comes down by, like, a point or so.

Or if not more. So there's—it's not a—I don't think he has a flawless path to being a superstar for fantasy purposes, but he looks like the real deal. Like, the film stuff, his numbers are great. If you locked in Jaden Daniels or Drake May and you had to lock him in for the whole year? Uh, man. If I had to lock in all year, probably Jaden. But Jaden just is—Jaden's a higher ceiling but higher—or lower floor to me of things, you know. We saw it. The bottom could fall out. Like, do you guys make anything of competition-wise? You get to the playoffs.

You know, theoretically, you're playing the best of the best. Drake May completed 58% of his passes in the playoffs. He had a—he threw six touchdowns and four interceptions. Like, those aren't prolific numbers. He took 21 sacks. Like, playoffs were not perfect for Drake May. I'm trying to remember all the matchups. I know they played Denver. I know they played Seattle. Did they play Houston? Uh, remind me— Yeah, they beat the crap out of Houston. Isn't that the Stroud game? Kyle? Well, someone beat the crap out of Houston and was the Stroud game. That's for sure. I mean, that was—they went out—

I'm just trying to think about, like, what would explain away some of that. And if you played three of the best four defenses in football, might have something to do with it. Well, that's the point of— Yeah, for sure. —of bringing that up. Yeah. Chargers, Houston, Denver, Seattle. Yeah. I'm bringing it up of—you're like, okay, well, if the—they're playing a more difficult schedule, you're going to have fewer cupcake games. Mm-hmm. Yeah. So is that something that people should be factoring in more? Or are we just, you know, whatever. Wheels up. Drake May looks great. And the addition of A.J. Brown can—can that eliminate some of the concerns with the schedule?

Yeah, I think if I had a choice, I'd probably go with— It's gonna be May. Oh, okay. Yeah, I don't know. Okay. I don't know. I've always hated that drop, so I tried to use it for my own, like, purposes. It didn't feel right at all. That's a late April. That's a late April drop. Yeah. I don't know. I like Drake May. I think the backfield will be—I think Mike would agree. It's gonna be frustrating. The backfield—I love hearing Jason being bullish on Travo. Like, I think he is a sensational player. I think that should he be given the keys, great things will happen for the team.

Great things will happen for fantasy football. But as we know, running back decisions are—that's who's on the field. And the coach puts the players on the field, and Vrabel—like, last year where you had the Henderson breakout happen, where you're getting all the production, it's incredible. And the fact that Ramondre goes right back in—and Ramondre was good. Like, this is not a—you know, I have to tell the truth of Ramondre's season. He was a solid player for the Patriots, and he was solid for fantasy football. The fact that they went back to him immediately, just—that worries me for the ADP gap of—I'm

not saying Henderson can't pay off at a fourth-round price, but the risk you're taking of him in the fourth and Ramondre in the seventh when—Ramondre is probably the starter for the first quarter of the season, at least. I don't know how everyone's gonna break the pendulum down a little bit differently. But there's a—it's not, like, guaranteed that Henderson has a better fantasy year than Ramondre. And that says— I agree. That says something for the fantasy decision-making of that. The upside is tremendous with Travion, but there's no guarantee he's the better running back in this backfield, production-wise. That's definitely true. There is, in the range of outcomes, if they—you know, neither guy gets injured, Ramondre could

be the goal lineback, could still be on the field more in passing situations, and be the better pick. They do like him. Yeah, for sure. And he's under contract for at least, you know—he's under contract, I think, three more years, probably two on the team. However, I am very bullish on Henderson. He is the more explosive player. They spent the 38th pick on him, right? Then he goes out in his rookie season, gets 1,100 total yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. If you look at what happened on the snaps, so he started so slow. I mean, this was all Ramondre.

They brought this rookie along slow. Then an injury forced him on the field, and he dominated. He dominated during that stretch. Ramondre comes back, and what we remember now is what happened in the playoffs, where Ramondre took over. But the rest of the season, Ramondre was getting 11 opportunities a game. When Ramondre and Travo were there, two Travion-Henderson's 14 a game. Now, how do you explain that in the playoffs? We just talked about this. They played really good, unbelievable defenses where the offense was controlled and more game management. This was a smart decision by Vrabel. They got to the Super Bowl.

But I think that it will flip. Last year on the total, this 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns that we saw from Travion, that was on 46% of the snaps. I think it's going to be 60-40 the other way. No, I don't agree with that at all. And that's absolutely fine. You don't have to agree with that. That's the bet. But if it is that, if it's 60-40 Travo, Travo will pay off on the fourth. Yes, that I agree with. And so you just have to decide for yourself, do you think Ramondre will be the leader of this timeshare? If so, Travo's a terrible pick.

A.J. Brown has arrived. We'll talk about the wide receiver room. I think that A.J. Brown is in the realm of players that can finish at number one at the position. We always ask that question, like, what's the true ceiling of the wide receiver position? Our consensus rank on A.J. Brown is number nine overall. But I would answer that question if you asked me, like, could he finish at one? I would say yes. I would say yes, too. I think it's going to be a brilliant year for him. It might be isolated to one New England year this year. But I think he is a steal in drafts.

He will demand the ball. He always has. Last year, people were down on him, down on the Eagles offense. Jalen Hurts wasn't that good at passing the ball. A.J. Brown missed a couple games. He was the wide receiver 10. Now you go to a team that has a pass rate way higher than the Eagles. They paid to get him. He is the guy. He's got a better quarterback situation throwing the ball. Drake May is a better passer than Jalen Hurts. I am all in on A.J. Brown. I'm completely with you. I think that where he's going right now in drafts is a great spot to take him.

Second receiving target on this team, is it one of the other wide receivers, or is it Hunter Henry? No, it's Dobbs. I mean, long live the reign of Romeo Dobbs being the Patriots wide receiver one. We had a sweet couple months there. But I think lost in the A.J. Brown stuff is that they gave Romeo Dobbs a good contract. And Romeo Dobbs is – I'm not saying he's an elite player, but he is a very capable wide receiver. He was a stabilizer in Green Bay for years. You think eight weeks into the year he'll be on fantasy rosters? I do.