Fantasy Football - AFC East Breakdown + Meow Men - Podcast for 7/11

That's incredible. I mean, if you do that over the course of a year, it's big numbers. But it is going to feel a little bit like Malik and A-chan against the world, I think, at least in my view. So where are you at with A-chan? Because he is an early second-round pick. So you're talking... This is a foundation of your roster. You can't miss... You don't want to miss on your second-round pick. It puts you in a huge hole. He's a great player. Last year, 40% of his production came from receiving. And that's not what historically Malik has done. We have a different quarterback, which, you know, mobile quarterbacks, you lose a couple targets here and there.

You also don't have... When you have a quarterback like Tua, you know that you're going to get a bunch of check down. It's like the Phillip Rivers. You have certain quarterbacks who this is what they do. It's part of their M.O. I don't have fear. Okay. And that's your... I have him ranked very high. And part of it is... Go look at the game log last year. They had games go sideways all over the place. This was the most consistent running back in football. You know what his consistency ranking is? 100%. So every game he played... What's funny about that is our metric for that, for a running back, is you want to hit 10.5 fantasy points a game.

He did that 100% of his games. His lowest score all year was 11.3. I mean, he was basically 15 points a game every single game. Unfathomably consistent last year. There's just some things that he possesses, in my opinion, that make him more invulnerable to bad games. One was the receiving work. Yes. Maybe that is a variable that is going to be a problem. Two, it's the big plays. It's the long runs. The 49-yard touchdown. The 46-yard touchdown. The 59-yard touchdown. The 48-yard touchdown. 39, 29, 23. When you can make a big play... I mean, they lost games 33-8. He's a running back 10 in that game.

I mean, 45-20. He's a running back 15. I know that it's not going to stay this good, but I just believe in the player's talent. And then the other part of that conversation is... I don't like Atlanta's offense, but I like B. John. We went over the wide receivers. I think Malik Washington is at least interesting as a complete and total dart throw at the very, very end of late drafts. But last year, you lose Tyreek, but you had Waddle for the majority of the season. You have a true number one wide receiver that the teams have to worry about.

If they have no one at the pass-catching position that you have to worry about, and you can completely focus on H.N. I definitely worry about H.N. I think the talent is totally something you can bet on. The opportunity is something you can bet on. When those two things come together, I'm not going to say that he's going to be a bust. But where he is going in drafts feels like he's going ahead of Gentian, Hampton, and most ADP right now. I would prefer those other guys personally. Yeah, I would take them all those two guys. Right, and so he might stay there.

I do think last year he had 12 total touchdowns. I couldn't possibly project him to get 12 total touchdowns on this offense. I can't possibly project him to receive the same targets that he had with Tua, with Malik. So it's not going to be as good as last year. It's not. But he is super talented, and he will get so much more. He had 12 the year before as well. Yeah. Well, they were a good offense two years ago. Two straight years. I just think the challenge for you is going to be like this team, how many total touchdowns do they score on the year?

Exactly. Right. But if it's 30, try giving them to somebody else. That's the hard part in the projection thing is this offense, they paid him. I mean, he got the big check this offseason. They're going to be a weird team. They're just going to be a very, very weird team to see if we can find fantasy value. You can't look at an offense that's projected for four and a half wins and not say there's not some risk with HN, even though he's been that good. But I do think he's in the same tier to me, talent-wise, as Gibbs, B. John, those guys.

And Greg Dulcich, for goodness sake. Okay, I was going to bring it up. Did you want to say something else on HN? We mentioned Dalton Kincaid was at 2.73 yards per route run. Hyper-efficient. Part of that is the low snaps. Greg Dulcich, on very low snaps as well, 2.38 yards per route run. And then they bring him back. He is their best receiver outside of HN. Unless Chris Bell. Like, Chris Bell was supposed to be a first-round wide receiver who tore his knee, right? Yeah, his knee just tore it right off. Made Dan Campbell proud. Oh! Whoa! That drop did not work very well the last time.

Was it last applied to Le'Veon? I think so. That was a long time ago. That's a bell told for the player who... I'm staring at some old drops here, guys. You know how many folders I had to go in for that? Yeah. That's in there. You had to go to the Le'Veon bell folder. That's in there with... Carry on my wayward son. Also... Believe you've met my fitness consiglieria, Michel. Sony Michel? Sony Michel. Yeah, that's some old... Oh, man. There's some old stuff. Some old stuff in there. AJ Dillon. All right. Well, we got to get some new drops here.

I think Dulcich is a great sleeper pick. I do. I agree. You're going to be coming from behind in almost every game you play. They are... The first five games of the year, road game against the Raiders, road game against the Niners, Kansas City, Minnesota, Cincinnati, LLLL potential to start the year. Well, it's like profile-wise, super athletic. I was dressed up as him for Halloween. He's a super athletic player. That matters at the tight end position. And very strong chance he's the number one receiving option, other than the running back. You know, odds are very, very against him, but these types of players, they pop up.

Yep. No, I think that he is one of the more interesting names on a team that seems mostly uninteresting. Speaking of the Jets, 3-14 last year with a projected win total of 5.5. Oh, man. 3-5-1 score games. You guys remember the dance? Yeah. By... By Coach. Oh, and then they... And then they lost the game? And then they lost the game. Oh, my God. The vibes are better this year than they were last year. The Jets were tight or trailing in 93% of their snaps. They lost by 11.5 points a game. Their schedule looks much better, but the projected win total is the same.

5.5. Brutal division that nobody's won in how many? 17 years? Is that what I said? Other than the Patriots and Bills? Yeah. The Jets haven't won in forever. Is it? So the Jets have not been... Their last playoff appearance was 2010, which... Wow. That puts them... They're like the longest wait. The Falcons are 2017. Like, 2010 is incredible. That's... That's 16 years. That seems impossible. And yet... What? Get it together, man. They didn't make the playoffs with Favre? Well, I mean, the last appearance, I think, was... Wow. Sanchez in 2015... 2010, right? Sanchez was after Favre. We're old, right? I guess so, man.

Holy moly. When did Brett Favre play? The Jets' last win was Sanchez. Yeah. January 16th, 2011. Oh, wow. Nine and seven. Sanchez threw three touchdown passes to beat the Patriots 28-21. Crazy. Oh, Mangini was the coach. You guys remember Eric Mangini? He was... It was Rex with Sanchez. Yes, it was. But, man. But I do remember Eric Mangini. Yeah. What a great intro for this team. He was great, and then he just took park carburetors and went to work as a mechanic, I assume. Just based on looks. Oh, my gosh. I didn't see Mangini slander coming up on today's episode.

He looked like a mechanic to you? You can't pass up your opportunity to dunk on Eric Mangini. That's double A, MCO. Offensive rank, 29th in points per game, 29th in yards per game. Defensive rank, 31st in points per game. Aaron Glenn did such a good job that he did the worst job possible. And then he fell on his sword by cutting everyone else with his sword. It was him. It was you. He blamed everyone. He said someone call an ambulance. But not for me. I mean... Dude. How about the 64-year-old... He massacred his coaches. He massacred them. You know, that's your fault.

You suck. Get out of here. You're fired. Heads had to roll after last year and it wasn't going to be his. I can't believe he kept his job. I can't believe this guy got another job. Frank Reich, 64 years old, the oldest OC in the NFL. The last two times we saw him at the NFL level, I thought the league had passed him by. But there are those out there that look at Reich and say, look, this is an NFL-level offensive coordinator that should be able to put his players in the best position to succeed. Do you know who those people are, Andy?

Jets fans? No. Oh. These are people who have had Garrett Wilson on their dynasty roster the whole time. Yeah. And each and every year, we have to look at the idiotic moves that the Jets have made and we have to convince ourselves that our superstar wide receiver will actually get a chance. When 64-year-old Frank Reich last had opportunities, he had the lowest motion rate on dropbacks of any play caller. Because motion, that's not a big part of the game today, right? Mike, how does that make you feel? Motion and play action? Your eyes rolled into the back of your head.

Look, I'm not a NFL coach. I am not a college or high school coach. But you pay attention to what the good coaches do. But I know what the good offenses do. They do a lot of play action. Because you're always more efficient. We've got to establish the run. No, you don't. You just have to fake it. It just works. And so does motion. Like, these things matter. You have to pay attention to what's going on in the NFL. Kyle, give me the top. I'll give you a second. But give me the top three teams in motion rate. I'm just curious.

That will be fascinating. Give me those numbers. I bet it won't take you long to find them. New additions. Kenyon Sadiq, 16th pick in the draft. Omar Cooper Jr., 30th pick in the draft. Two offensive weapons. Two first rounders. This is how bad the Jets are. That a super athletic, exciting tight end. A first round wide receiver off a national championship team. And we're like, meh. I have little to no interest. I think that this offense is interesting. I am interested in the Jets offense. Now, I have little to no interest in those two specific rookies because of how they're going to be used in the offense as a whole.

But this defense is not good. Geno Smith can at least accumulate stats. We don't mind interceptions, you know, in fantasy football. Well, Jameis was king of providing us a lot of passing yards. I do think with the weapons they have, with Brees Hall, with Garrett Wilson, the new additions of these two rookies, their offensive line is a little better. The offense should vary, you know, maybe not to the level that the Cardinals at the second half of last year as a terrible team, but just that could actually go and score. I see potential for the Jets offense this year in fantasy.

Like, I'm pretty in on Garrett Wilson. Are you in on Brees? And Brees, it depends on where he is in the draft. That really, I like Brees at a point, but I think he has limited upside. 3-10? Do you like him at 3-10? Yeah. RB-15 off the board? Yeah. The 3-4 turn, I think that's an appropriate spot. Message for Frank Reich. The top five coaches, offensive coordinators in motion rate. Since 2021. Mike McDaniel. Okay. Great offense. Considered an offensive genius. Ben Johnson. Okay. KOC. I, last year sucked, but. But overall. Mostly winning teams here. Shane Steichen. Turned it around. And Sean McVay.

Hmm. I don't want to do it. I don't want him to move. Put your feet in the concrete. I'll tell you who would run zero motion. Kyle Borginoni. Oh, really? Yeah. Because he's like, oh, it's what the good people do. I won't do it. Oh, a contrarian take. Yeah. Just firing. Handshake. Kyle Borginoni. Right? Well, I bring that up because. He is the Frank Reich of our company. I bring that up because Meowson Taylor remains on the New York Jets. Very famous second round pick, Mason Taylor, who we discussed at length. And I may have referred to him. Was that nickname of the year?

It had to be. It had to have been. Yeah. Because I brought that up because I watched Mason Taylor. I don't see any dog. This dude doesn't. He catches and he falls down. That plays out over the course of an NFL season where he fails to force a single missed tackle. This is. And he's a featured part of the office. He's not trying to. I bring. Obviously. I bring this up because now Kyle's like, I'm rooting for Mason Taylor. And I'm like, what are you doing? You. With Sadiq arriving? Yeah, I don't know. It's just Kyle. Now he's an underdog.

It's just Kyle. So the case for Brees Hall, look, more scoring opportunities will go a long way. It was fourth in explosive run rate on a bad, bad, bad, bad team. 47th in touchdown rate. It's not too different than the can HN survive in Miami to the can Brees Hall survive in New York. They're going to just be key cogs of the offense. Both got paid this offseason. Both teams committed to them as their main running back. So, look, I like my running backs to be on winning teams. But everybody's got a call. Or featured. Or a feature back that can catch the football.

And Brees can do that. Yeah, he can. But, I mean. I'm not worried about Braylon Allen or Isaiah Davis. I'm not worried about them as players. I am worried about their coach making stupid decisions. Which one? The head coach or Reich? Like, both, honestly. But, I mean, even last year, it didn't work out. We didn't get to see exactly how it was going to shake out because Braylon Allen got hurt very quickly. But Glenn continually talked about, I want to use three running backs. I want to use three. And he still has said that. Yeah, but it's annoying. I agree.

And when you get into the game, we always say you can have your plan. But then eventually you've got to get your best players out there. But it is a concern. But it is also factored into the ADP of Brees. Now, Sadiq, during the draft process, we were not as bullish on Sadiq. But he is not by any means a bad prospect. This is a really good prospect, super athlete. I feel like I was very neutral. You were not a fan of his tape compared to, like, Stowers. Well, I was not a fan of his tape compared to his projected and official draft capital.

Yeah, because he was like a top ten potential pick. Yeah, exactly. And you're like, you didn't think that belonged to him. Correct. But I do think he is very talented. He's got a 95th percentile Felix score. So this is someone that needs to be remembered and looked at. If you want to take a shot in, you know, I don't know where he's going in drafts right now. But this would be, let's say. I mean, not drafted, basically. Yeah. So then, you know, your last round, if you want to take a swing on this, Gino obviously has thrown to tight ends.

Frank Reich has had a lot of success with tight ends in some of his systems. They spent a lot of capital on him. So it's weird for me to be, you know, saying don't forget about the rookie tight end. It's a little off brand. But you should be off. You should be off brand. I'm going to jump in real quick. Mason Taylor did not win nickname of the year. Oh, OK. This guy did. Oh. But Mason Taylor did take home a footy. Oh, yeah. For a new category. Oh, that's right. The meow man of the year. So he took that home.

Yeah. He was the only one nominated. But he did take it home. Here's what I will say. He ran unopposed. It's a small distraction, but in the vein of Sadiq, the rookie tight ends. The news right now out of Philadelphia is that Stowers is firmly third on the tight end. Oh, yeah. I didn't know Stowers is not on the radar. It's one of the reasons why we've talked so much. Like, we know Devontae Smith is going to be heavily involved in that offense. But my goodness, Dallas Goddard is going to be involved in that offense. Yeah. It's not a name anybody wants to be excited about.

But Stowers is not a part of the picture. Yeah. And Goddard has always benefited when one of those wide receivers was out. And it's just worth throwing out there. No, I love that. We can talk about it again when we get to the NFC. But Garrett Wilson, where are you with his ADP? Right now, I'm seeing wide receiver 17 around there in the middle of the fourth. Fine with it. I adore it. Okay. Oh. Yeah. I'm pretty bullish. I have Garrett Wilson right now as my wide receiver 12. So he sneaks in at a wide receiver one. I believe that this offense and defense combination.

Nothing you can say to take me away. The offense-defense combination and the passing game upgrade over the quarterback of last year. Nobody likes Geno more than you this year. Yeah. I mean. You are so into Geno. It's not that I think Geno is good. Mm-hmm. It's that Geno is Jacoby Brissett. He is totally fine to throw. That's what you're hoping for. That's what I expect. Okay. I'm just saying Geno was not Jacoby Brissett when he played football last year. Yeah. But Geno has support. He was too rash. He supported enough. Look at how he targeted Gentty. Obviously, Brock Bowers when he was playing.