Fantasy Football - AFC East Breakdown + Meow Men - Podcast for 7/11

Okay. That's why I want to bring him up. Look, he's barely being drafted as a wide receiver four, and he's going to an MVP caliber quarterback that will have a ton of statistics. There's going to be – there's enough production to go to have it be a second player. Does Dobbs get enough consolidated targets? Is he up in the low 20s of the target share? Because if he is, then he's going to help rosters. Maybe he's not a league-winning type of player, but there's very, very few of those guys each and every year. So you need auxiliary players who can come in and be your wide receiver three

or your flex play. And I think that Romeo Dobbs is in contention to be able to do something like that. Stephon Diggs was 21% of the targets. He's gone. Antonio Gibson's gone. And Austin Hooper is gone. I will just bring up Hunter Henry as the – I think the two most boring, sneaky tight ends you could play with the last pick of your draft are Hunter Henry and Dallas Goddard. Yeah. And Henry just – I mean, it blew my mind to look. He was the tight end six on the year with 768 yards and seven touchdowns. Just worth saying. I mean, Henry – he had a big role in the red zone.

A.J. Brown will come in and be more of a role in the red zone. In the red zone. But Henry can give you a game here, there, in the right matchup when the opponent defense is bad against tight ends. In the red zone, he saw the first read 40% of the time. He's a good player. He's just solid. Yeah. He's just solid. He's a good vet. Yeah. He's a touchdown threat where a lot of these late tight ends are just – they're not going to have production and they won't have touchdowns either. I do think that the addition of A.J. Brown and Dobbs makes me less bullish.

Like, he has always, for the last several years, been one of those, I'm at the last round of my draft, I need a tight end. I've always been fine taking Hunter Henry. He's probably not going to make that cut. I'd rather have Dallas Goddard in that situation. You know, ironically, A.J. Brown leaves one team, goes to the other. I'll take the one where the targets are vacated. We'll take a break and we'll jump into the Bills. No, they didn't win the division, but they did go 12-5 and have a successful year once again. The Vegas win total last year was 11-1⁄2.

They won 12 games – yeah, 11-1⁄2, they won 12 games. They were 5-3-1 score games. They only had five games against teams with a winning record. So to bring that up, you've got to be fair with every team in this division. And, you know, they were very healthy on the offensive side of the ball. Not a lot of injuries there. Very injured on the defensive side of the ball. Their Vegas projected win total has gone down from 11-1⁄2 to 10-1⁄2 going into this year. Third in points per game, third in yards per game. The big move this offseason, a big change at head coach.

Joe Brady, well, maybe not a big change, but a change, right? Yeah, it's still a change. McDermott is gone. Culture has changed. No more 9-11 analogies in the locker room. Oh, my gosh. Oh, man. That was real. It's funny because it became a meme. I wasn't even going to bring it up. That's all I think about. But it's like, it actually happened. Yeah. Well, Joe Brady's taken over. Pete Carmichael's the OC, but Joe Brady was the OC, and we'll have his fingerprints all over the – like, that's good for fantasy for us. It is. When you look at, you know, the two main players on Buffalo

that fantasy players care about, James Cook, Josh Allen. Those are the identity of the team. And when the head coach is the former offensive coordinator, you know that there's the stability, the expectation that this is going to be that run-first team, that James Cook is going to have a huge role once again. The headline-making move, DJ Moore acquired via trade. No more Brandon Cooks, Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel on the, you know, the rotating offensive side of the football at wide receiver. But they also drafted Skylar Bell in the fourth round, worth mentioning. Are you expecting more of the same from this offense?

And how early is too early for Josh Allen in a fantasy draft? I think Josh Allen is a good pick, like, period. So if you take him – if you want to take him at the 2-3 turn, that's earlier than I would want to take him. That's earlier than he usually goes. I don't think it's a bad pick because Josh Allen has been so solid. I saw some statistics on the percentage of teams that make the playoffs with Josh Allen over the last several years. And it is an enormous number. And he's been drafted all over the place. A couple years ago, he was drafted even higher.

He was a second-round pick. And people who drafted him made the playoffs. When he was a third-round pick, people who drafted him, they made the playoffs. It's like one of those where late-round quarterback, we want the value. That's all great, and that's a good strategy as well. But Josh Allen's so solid, I just don't think it's ever a bad pick to great – to draft a guy that's going to score a ton of fantasy points in a game where we're trying to score fantasy points is a pretty good strategy. Is James Cook a guaranteed first-round pick for you? He said basically double birds to the TD regression.

Well, I mean, he could say that, but he – we got it. We did? The touchdown regression was massive. Two years ago, he had 207 carries and 16 rushing touchdowns. He had 12 rushing touchdowns this year on 309 carries. So the touchdown percentage – Yeah, we – no, we got it, guys. We smashed it. We got it. But he managed to find a way through. But then he got 100 more carries. He's one of the true workhorses. And he needs to be thought of that way in the same breath as the great ones out there. He is – The Bichons and CMCs, I think.

The thought is just hitting me now of – because we were talking about last year, the conversation – there was a conversation of like, okay, well, James Cook, 200 carries, like 237 the year before, and then they give him the huge contract. And you're like, this only makes sense if you give him a bunch more volume, which he did and he thrived. And I'm bringing this – just a quick callback of like the Alec Pierce discussion of when you give a player that level of contract, you better use that player or you look real, real dumb. And they did. And James Cook came through.

And he's – yeah, he's an easy, safe, high upside, high floor pick. 11 games of 80-plus rushing yards was the most in the NFL. Barely caught the football but didn't need to. I mean, you felt it last year. If you look across your matchup and you saw James Cook on the other side, you went, oh, no. Well, he had breakaway runs too. It was like – he was very explosive. That combo was great. DJ Moore gets reunited with Joe Brady, who was his offensive coordinator in Carolina. That's one thing. Like, I'm going to try to talk more positively about DJ Moore.

Yes, good. I want to try and – because we've been – Make the case for both sides. We've been pretty negative on DJ Moore because, look, the case for that is it's very easy. He's 29, year eight in the NFL. He was bad last year. He's changing teams at a late point into his career. That's not generally something that works out. But he is going back to a coach who he's played for. And Joe Brady in March, guys, let's see if you agree with this quote. Joe Brady said, five years, it's a long time, but the player I saw on the 2025 tape wasn't any different.

I didn't see any drop off. Then he wasn't watching much. Well, I – I think I understand it because the DJ Moore the last couple of years in Chicago has been a DJ Moore that makes a – just out of nowhere, outstanding great play, just wasn't a focal point of the offense. When he was with Joe Brady in Carolina, 1,100 yards, four touchdowns, 1,100 yards, four touchdowns. If they want to make him that – I guess I'm just trying to say, like, if you could give a three-sentence summary of the bull case for DJ Moore – because at this point –

That's also easy. In the sixth round – Yeah, the height upside. You're starting to – you're not paying the digs arrives in Buffalo price. The genuine – Well, that was actually super cheap, too. Yeah, because we didn't like Josh Allen. Stefan Diggs was like a six-run pick. Yes. It was a very similar situation. The question is whether or not DJ Moore still got it. If he does, the range of outcomes – like we said with A.J. Brown, like what is the best-case scenario? The best-case scenario is he is their alpha target. He has 150 targets. If he has 150 targets, then you're talking about a guy who, from Josh Allen, he's a wide receiver one.

You know, I don't think if he's up near 30% target share, he's falling to the – you know, to a wide receiver two. So he is not a terrible pick if you want to take a bet on the Bills offense. I won't be doing that. I think I just have too much of odds on him not being necessary for this offense, having his good games, being involved. But, I mean, we're going back multiple years now where Josh Allen's been great, the offense has been great, and they didn't really need one wide receiver to carry the load. I agree with that.

I think we've been excited about Shakir, Coleman, Cooks, Curtis Samuel before, like Amari Cooper when he arrived. I think we have been excited about a bunch of names that we think could become the next Diggs because he was – But no one was good enough. So that's the question. And I think most of us would say we don't know if D.J. Moore has that enough. I mean, it's just like the Chiefs. No one's been good enough to – Dalton Kincaid, Adam to the list, by the way, of players with high expectations that have never become a focal point. But for D.J. Moore, this was – I recall talking about the post-mortem, looking back on Stephon Diggs.

I was wrong the Stephon Diggs year because I was so out on Josh Allen making the best turnaround a quarterback in the NFL has ever seen. Got that one wrong. But looking back at it was the risk was baked into the ADP. You know, there's other guys who are in the sixth round that I – so there is an opportunity cost. There's players in that area that I really love. But it's like if you're in on D.J. Moore at all, he's wide receiver 32, and he finished as the wide receiver 33 last year. Like, so it's all just inherently in there that you are – you're not – it's not like – A.J. Brown's a second-round pick.

Right. Yeah, you don't have to pay a lot. But for the player who – he has to be the number one wide receiver. I feel like we had the nicest conversation we've definitely ever had about D.J. Moore this offseason, which was nice of us. You got to – like – So they're favored – You got to look at what – where could you be wrong in your analysis? They're favored in five of their first six games, but I will say there's some tough defensive matchups in there. They start against Houston in Houston. They play New England in week four. They play against the Rams in that defense in Los Angeles in week five.

So I think it's a pretty level start to the year, even though they're favored in five of six. One last follow-up there, Dalton Kincaid. Yes, that's – I didn't want you to move on before talking about Kincaid. Yeah, I'm not going to move on without talking about him. I think it's an important conversation for this year because he is very affordable. I think he's going to be in double-digit rounds. No one really wants him. He's just been viewed mostly as a bust for his career, even though he was very exciting coming in. He's just dealt with injuries. His lingering – it was PCL, I think, that he really struggled with all last year.

Oh, boy. Camstring. It all came from this knee injury. He kept getting multiple opinions whether he needs surgery or not. Last year, he finished as the tight end 15, okay? He played 27% of the Bills' snaps, offensive snaps. I mean, he was really not on the field. Even in the games that he played, it was only 38% of snaps. I just did a little research report on his current health, and he took multiple doctor visits. All of them said he didn't need surgery, so he rehabbed – I think it's the same doctors from last year. No, no, no. What I was saying earlier was actually from this offseason.

The most recent reports is talking from him that he feels the best he's felt in forever. He hasn't even thought about it. The knee is no longer an issue for him. Right now, not that it can't come up again, but it's great because all last year, it was an issue for him every single game the whole year. That's why his snaps were so limited. On a yards per route run basis, he was the best. He led all tight ends. So, if he's actually healthy in what we've seen the last couple years is – A little sleeper candidate. Yeah, a little sleeper candidate tight end.

If you're in the end of your draft and you don't have one, I would – in double digits, round 11, I'd pull the trigger. All right, let's take a break, and we'll come back with the Dolphins. All right, Foot Clan. Whether you are on the go or at home, T-Mobile, well, they're built to keep you connected wherever you're scouting your fantasy team. And that on-the-go part, that is important. With America's Best Network, you'll be connected to the latest news and player projections. So, when you're on the clock, you can draft a winning team. I can think of so many situations where that element of being connected while you're on the go is fundamental to fantasy football success.

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Again, T-Mobile making that easy to do. Every bit of news. Things are changing all the time. New player contracts, all that good stuff. So, from off-season to game day, every play is better with T-Mobile. What you've got to do is visit T-Mobile.com slash network. Fastest is based on analysis by UKLA of Speed Test Intelligence Data of National Speed Score results for the second half of 2025. The best mobile network in the U.S. is based on analysis by UKLA of Speed Test Intelligence Data, second half of 2025. All right, guys. I know you've been dying to talk about the Dolphins. Their projected win total last year was eight and a half.

They went seven and ten. Their projected win total this year is an abysmal four and a half. When you look at the players subtracted from this team, it is just reading the offense to you. Player subtractions. Tua, Tyreek, Waddell, Westbrook Akine, Darren Waller. All quarterbacks and pass catchers. Let's take Mike McDaniel as well. Yeah, and your head coach. Your offensive genius of a head coach. The offense was nuked. They are playing for 2027. Obviously, they brought in... Haefely? Yep. They brought in the Packers. All entirely. Like the Packers backup guys, they became the new starters here, including their backup quarterback.

Their player additions list includes Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, and Terrace Marshall Jr., all three of which are considered mediocre at best. They added Caleb Douglas in the draft in the third round, Chris Bell in the third round. It's hard to have high expectations of those guys, but if you want... Like, you know what you have in Tolbert, Atwell, and Terrace Marshall. Which is nothing. Is that what you mean? Yeah, and Malik Washington, and so you look at this ensemble of options, and you say, well, there's just nobody I would pick. Maybe one of them will help Malik be relevant, but I can't pick one.

I had Kyle look into... Because they are an NFL team. They will throw... Yeah, they have to play four quarters. They have to play four quarters every game. So the fact that right now no one is being drafted a wide receiver in the top 36, it's like, well, one of them has to emerge, right? So I had him look at teams that were healthy. Because every year you've got, you know, maybe the best wide receiver on the team was wide receiver 60 because, you know, the healthiest wide receiver played eight games. There's plenty of examples in history where... Yeah, there are.

A healthy wide receiver core has absolutely nothing of relevance, and this is a very predictable one of those. If you want to take a shot on one of their rookies, Caleb Douglas or Chris Bell, to have a surprise breakout, okay. But I'm not going to. Yeah, it's just a tough sell on the offensive side of the football outside of... H. Devon H. Which, you know, on one hand, you're like, well, this offense is going to struggle. They're not projected to win a lot of games. That's not good for running backs. Well, the offense struggled. They didn't win a bunch of games, and he was there last year.

That's it, you know. But this is the... They're set up for Warren Sharp's second toughest schedule of 2026. They're coming off a year where I just deleted their five best offensive players, and they were 25th in yards per game last year. It's hard to make a strong case for them winning a lot of football games. Hopefully, they can win some fantasy football games with some spot starts from Malik Willis, who is a very mobile quarterback. That is a superpower. I think it's a QB stash late in drafts. You can look to Green Bay, the scramble rate, 14.5%. He ran for 41, 73, and 60 yards in his three starts.