The 2023 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/18

Foot Clan, here we are, the My Guys episode of the show, and I'm excited to reveal some big names on today's episode. A reminder, we're giving away the UDK for Life. All you have to do to be eligible to win, go to Ultimate DraftKKK.com, pick up the 2023 UDK, and we're going to give away a UDK for Life this afternoon on the live stream. Do not miss it. Enjoy the show. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore. and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Friday, August 18th. Welcome into the My Guys episode of the show. Mike Wright is here. I am here. I did not. It's My Guy time. Jason wants everything to be a time now. I'm so proud of what you did. I had to restrain. I called him off.

Yeah, yeah. No, you're right. You saw me. I wanted it. It's my guy time. You know, I think that the people want that as well. But you are correct. You can't just do it all the time. The reason we want it is because it's special. Yeah. It's because he says no most of the time. He denies it. I can't build up demand. I cannot wait for it's Monday time. He just wants every day of the week. Welcome in one and all. It is our my guys episode of the show. Very excited to dig into. Nine players that we have strong flag-planting conviction on going to make the case for each of our my guys today. And look, I don't know how you guys feel about the names that I'm throwing out and vice versa. So I think there'll be some agreement, some disagreement, some prove it to me, sentiment here on the show. Jason Moore, present and accounted for as well.

And I'm Andy Holloway. So excited to have you with us. You can find us on X at the FF Ballers. Follow Jason at Jason FFL. Mike at FF Hitman. I'm at Andy Holloway. The deucers are in the building. They will also be helping us out this afternoon because we have a very special live stream, six Eastern, three Pacific, giving away the UDK for life. It's our yearly giveaway. Also a signed Derek Henry jersey, a signed T. Higgins mini helmet. That giveaway will take place at the end of the live stream. Throughout the live stream, we're going to be answering your questions. Interacting with all the listeners. Whatever you want to talk about, that's what we'll be doing. Just having a good time. Having a good time. Having a good time. Bob, Bob. All right. And then the only thing you need to do to enter is go to Ultimate DraftKit.com and pick up the UDK by 6.30 p.m. Eastern.

And the winner, like I said, it will be announced today. So I'm excited. That's coming this afternoon. And the show, the My Guys episode, one of the most anticipated of this season. It's here. We did it. But first, let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Not a lot to talk about. But Sam Hal has been named the commander's starting quarterback for week one. Darn right, he has. Very excited about that. We might. be talking about him in the next segment. Sam Howell? Yeah. Okay. Just a little tease. He might be my, my guy. Oh, okay. Are you going to say that about every player when we talk about before the My Guys? No, just Sam Howl. If you switch to Sam Howl, I'll be, uh, I mean, if you, if you, Jason loves Sam Howl. I, look, I've been a believer since college. I just don't know how much of it is the howl. That's the problem with you. Right. No, I get it. If his name.

was more benign. If it didn't give you the chance to literally howl at the moon, would you like him? Less, for sure, less. But I do think that he can be, I think he can be an actual NFL starter. There's no way he likes this guy of his Jim Smith. If he's Jim Smith, this guy, this guy's a loser. But no, he's played great in camp. He's earned the job. I mean, we have preseason football yet to come. And he has established himself, built some excitement. We have an offensive coordinator change. change in Washington. So lots of reasons to be excited. And guess what? They get to play Arizona week one. We will definitely be talking about that later. It's a good place to be. The athletic is projecting Malik Davis being left off the roster for the Cowboys, backup running back. Rico Dowdell is currently the number two behind Tony Pollard. Who is Rico Dowdell? That could be one of the things you've said out loud recently. Very much so.

He is a player who's been kind of on and off the Cowboys roster. I mean, really no investment. The only difference here for Rico, I mean, you have, you have Deuce Vaughn, which I don't know, maybe Deuce Von is a real thing, but it would certainly be an outlier. But Dowdell is, he's the only beef boy on the roster. And he's not even that beefy. No, I know. It's, um, six foot, 215. Beefy. He's the only beef boy. Surprise. What? Saints running back. Kendrae Miller returned to practice. He is wearing a brace on his right knee. But he's back. But it's good to see him out there and it means the injury doesn't seem to be long term. We thought it was more serious than apparently it was because they didn't say he's out indefinitely. That's correct. Had they said that, I would know. Oh, he could be back tomorrow. Yeah, my guys will be revealed in an indefinite.

period of time. One other update that is similar to this with Kendra Miller is that Terran Armstead, who was carted off. Oh, yeah, that's a good update. Yesterday we talked about it on the news for the dolphins, their left tackle. It looks like his injury is not going to be a season ender. He's going to be out a little while, but he will be back for the majority of the season. Yeah, and so big news for Tua. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Who needs to avoid taking as many hits as possible this season. I don't think we have anything else unless Al, you got anything for us? No, sir. All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Nothing you can take on tear. The vintage video drop. How have we not updated that? Because we will never update that. Is that where it's reached now? The point where, and I know most people are listening, so it means nothing to you.

But it's bad. Just be happy you're a listener today and not a watcher of the show. Every year we have to go. Like I have to make an actual physical trip to the Smithsonian. And I have to retrieve that. Yeah, I got to give them a bunch of tickets and things. And then they hand me an old 8mm film. And that's where that's from. Yeah, some great CGI. All right. But that's not the important thing here. We are planting our flags. on our favorite players heading into the year, instilling some confidence for the listeners out there to select these players where they're being drafted. Talk to me, Mike, about before I reveal my first one, what makes a my guy? So a my guy is, it's a player that no matter what their ADP is, you are targeting them. Now, some of these players are going to...

maybe feel a little bit scary because this is like this is an early round pick and this is a high draft capital pick someone that has to come through sometimes it's just your favorite value in the draft i know that i have one of my guys is just i think he's just an incredible mid-round value and then one of them is just happens to be my favorite player at the position when you factor in everything from Their ceiling, their floor, their draft position, their ADP. So it's a whole range of variables that put together just our favorite players and players that we are heavily targeting where we can possibly get them in drafts. Yeah. And again, it's trying to, you know, we've talked a lot. We've been doing the show since 2015, the My Guys episode. And they've certainly, we've had some big time hits. We've had some big time misses throughout the process.

That is normal when you are attempting to identify players that aren't necessarily the fancy community has been getting wiser over the years. There's a lot of information out there and we are looking to break the mold and give you an advantage with these players. Well, I think in fairness this year to make sure that I hit and get these right. My three, my guys are, they just so happen to be the first three ADP off the board. CMC, Jamar Chase, and Justin Jefferson. I'm playing my flag. Okay. I'm going to be bold. I think they're going to have great seasons. So Jason, that's it. That's it. I am done, which is hilarious because like it's, I mean, it's a joke that's right there, but it's actually, that's, that's scarier than you think. No, because like the odds that, the odds that one of those guys.

has an offseason or has an unfortunate injury. They exist. All right. It is time to get to it. And I'm going to kick it off with my first my guy, a player that I have the greatest conviction on of my three my guys. My absolute number one favorite pick of the season. My guy number one. Mike Evans. It's Mike Evans wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yesterday in the office when I was talking about Mike Evans to Al Borland himself, I mentioned my great conviction on how wonderful a pick Mike Evans will be this year, who presently is going as the wide receiver 33 on sleeper. And he goes, you know, how old is Mike Evans? He's like 31, right? He's 29 years old. Mike Evans is 29 years old.

Last year was a bumpy ride. And when you look at the game logs for Mike Evans, it really came down to a stretch beyond the first half of the season. It was the run-up to his monstrous league-winning, number one overall in the week, three touchdown performance. Thank you, Mike. It was the decline of Tom Brady. It was the farewell tour of Tom Brady as the sub-500ed themselves into the NFL playoffs. So it was a rough ride. There's a lot of burns. There's Kyle Pitts-level burns with Mike Evans over that last stretch of the season. But here's what I want you to know about Mike Evans. And here's why you should not doubt Mike Evans heading into the 2023 season. It wasn't his fault last season. Mike Evans graded higher last year as a receiver. According to Pro Football Focus in the wide receiver grades, he graded higher last year than he had in each of the prior Tom Brady seasons.

That's number one. Number two, he's at 1,000 straight yards in nine years, averaging 9.44 touchdowns per year in that stretch. Last year, which wasn't a good ride, had him finish in 15 games played, not 17, as the wide receiver 16, and he's being drafted literally twice as far back in drafts right now at wide receiver 33. Previous seasons 8, 10, 12, 8. 18, 2, 24, 12, never even been close to wide receiver 33. The problem that people have with Mike Evans right now has to do with the quarterback situation. So let's say the teacher has come to you and says, here's the test that you have to pass, Mike Evans, for me to draft you. And there'll be extra credit at the end of the test. But here's question number one. Can you handle having a quarterback that isn't Tom Brady? There's literally nobody else in the National Football League who has proven.

that he is immune to quarterback play more than Mike Evans. He has played with Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Ryan Fitzpatrick, James Winston, Ryan Griffin, Blaine Gabbardt, Tom Brady, and yes, this year he gets Baker Mayfield. And maybe Kyle Trask. I'm going to say it's possible, right? Baker is not locked into that spot. But here's what I like about the situation. Mike Evans. is the best friend a quarterback can possibly have. He is a physical beast. He beats you down the field. And when you look at Baker Mayfield, here's the next question on the test. Baker Mayfield is a really, really good deep ball thrower. In 2021, when he was with Cleveland, he was ranked sixth in terms of deep ball passers. He had a 112 passer rating going deep. It was better than Cousins, Herbert, Josh Allen that year.

And then you go, well, okay, that's 2021. What about last year? Last year, he played for two different teams. Last year, he had a better deep ball-adjusted completion percentage than Josh Allen. He actually had more 20-plus yard touchdowns last year than Patrick Mahomes did. That's impossible. Despite having half the attempts down the field. Baker Mayfield can throw the ball deep, and Mike Evans makes it so your margin of error throwing the ball deep is so. You can make mistakes, and he's actually good at doing it. They have a defense that's going to set the table for this offense to have to throw the ball all the time. And then here's the extra credit on the test. Just the superlatives coming out of camp. Best shape of his life? No. Jason, the general manager, said he expects him to get a ton of targets. Russell Gage just went out. When we have to talk about Kate Otten as a target in this offense.

which no disrespect to him, but like it's going to be the Mike Evans in the Chris Godwin show. And I like Mike Evans the most as a my guy because he's generally going around or two later than Chris Godwin is. This is a player that wants to be a legend in the sport. He's come out and said he wants to break the thousand yard consecutive streak that Jerry Rice has. He's come out recently and said he wants to break the Randy Moss 23 touchdowns in a season number. So you're talking about a player that can get to double digit touchdowns. You're talking about a player that is going to be.

filled up with targets all season long. I just don't understand the ADP at wide receiver 33. I still think he has top 15 potential at the wide receiver position with Baker Mayfield, with Kyle Trask. There's my Mike Evans case. And I know for a fact that Jason is not in the Mike Evans camp. And I also know he's been burnt. I know he's dealing with the Kyle Pitts type of feelings because last year he enjoyed he didn't enjoy. The ride. It's really tough because I own a signed Mike Evans jersey thanks to his week 17 championship gift that he gave me. And so I do love Mike Evans forever and always for that. But the path getting there was so rough. He had, I think, 43 points in one week and 36 points in another week. And then, you know, you take those two games out. The consistency wasn't there. And I know you say, well, he's, you know, quarterback proof. But then.

The argument is like, well, it was Tom Brady's fault last year. It was seven bad games. That's really what it was for Mike Evans. You're going to wipe out nine years of thousand yards. I started him in all seven of those. He had seven bad games. The pace for the first nine weeks of the season was 1,300 yards, six touchdowns, same old, same old. And you forget, I mean, he still had 77 for 11006 last year. I just don't. That's like a low Mike Evans line. Yeah, I get it. And I do think that where he's being drafted right now is a good value on yesterday's mock draft Mayhem show where Mike was able to get him was unbelievable. He will probably beat his ADP. The question that I was going to ask is one of your final statements, which is what is his ceiling? Does he still have top 15 potential? That's where I question it. But obviously he's done it so many times that.

I could see it happening again. If he wasn't a touchdown score, if that wasn't part of the equation for him, like an Amman Ra or Keenan six touchdown is kind of where you settle, I would agree that with this quarterback situation and where this team might be this year, I don't think that ceiling exists. But Mike Evans could put up 12 in this offense. I think that's very possible. And so that's where I said, that's my conviction. And you can ride or die with me if you want to. I think that Mike Evans is a good pick at his ADP because

He should beat it. He should get to a thousand yards. This is who Mike Evans is as a player. And is the upside case to me for Mike Evans is the target share comes back. I know target share is relative to the piece of the pie. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the last couple of years, what Tom Brady had been throwing pretty much more than any other team in NFL history. But the target share reflects that. So it's like 20% last year. 2021, 16% and 18%. What happens if the pie shrinks, but we get back to Mike Evans seeing 26, 27% of the targets? And then it just completely balances out the lack of volume and the unfortunate injury to Russell Gage. I think that that puts that back in the conversation. Yeah, you'd have to go back to 2015, 2016 when he was up at 30%. I mean, I couldn't even bring myself to it.

to mention the 30. Yeah, but 24, 22, 22. I mean, if he gets a 30% target share this year, he's the, he might be the best pick in fantasy football. And don't let this be a Baker Mayfield case in terms of like go get Baker Mayfield. I just like the fact that Baker, we saw it last year with the Rams. He'll chuck it. He'll throw the ball up. I mean, that's something he's willing to do and he's been successful with. So who's up next? I'll go next. Congratulations on getting. Baker Mayfield as your first my guy. Is this the Sam Hal pick here? Yes, it is. Sam Howell is my first my guy. He is so talented and he will win fantasy championships for people. Oh, that clip is perfect. That is not the truth. No, my first my guy should surprise nobody who's been listening to the show this entire offseason or even recently because it's a common comment to say.

that this player is an automatic in the third round for me. Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews, all season, I have been banging the drum. I have been the drum. The drum has been banged against me for Mark Andrew. You have become the drum? Every single mock draft, every single real draft, when I'm in the middle of the third round. I love grabbing Mark Andrews. I think he is discount Travis Kelsey. And I think sometimes when I say that, people, oh, that's nice, Jason. You're very handsome. I respect you. I don't say those things. But Mark Andrews is not Travis Kelsey. And okay, maybe he isn't, but I am going to make the case that I actually think he can be the number one tight in. And he.

has a really good shot this year to do that. So for my my guy dissertation, is that's what this is. We're getting PhDs for this. I want to give the case of how good Mark Andrews can be. He can be a smash home run league winning pick this year. Last year, he sucked down the stretch. He got injured. You lost Lamar Jackson. And that is why he's in the middle of the third round. You know. You've got to remember what happened. He gets injured in week eight. He misses week nine. After week 10, you have the buy, and Lamar plays in two games and then gets injured. And Andrews season was black. But before that, when you had Lamar and you had Healthy Mark Andrews through the first six weeks, he was on pace for 161 targets, 110 receptions, 1,289 yards, and 14 touchdowns. He was being the Mark Andrews that he was.

The previous year when he was the number one tight-in in fantasy football. It wasn't Kelsey. It was Andrews, and then he just kept being a terror, and then those unfortunate injuries happened. If you're on Yahoo, goodness gracious, he's dropping into the fourth round. His average draft position right now is 312. I think the value there to get a difference maker at the tight-end position is incredible. Here's the special case I want to highlight about Mark Andrews that we haven't really talked about before. We've been discussing new offensive coordinator Todd Monkin coming in for the Baltimore Ravens, the change in their pace, the fact that they're going to throw the ball a lot more. They ran three wide receiver sets, 81% so far in the preseason, which is a drastic change from the low 12% that we saw last year. And we say, oh, that's great for the wide receivers. But what does that mean for Mark Andrews?

You know, will they turn him into a blocking tight end since he's the only tight end on the field? Nope. No? No. No. I mean, goodness, no. Mark Andrews has blocked in the passing game 27 times in his career. Wait, what? Mark Andrews. That can't be true. Yes. As a Raven, he passed blocked 27 times in his entire five-year career. You want to know how many times he passed blocked last season? How did we figure this out? You know how many times he passed blocked last season? Once, one time. He is the wide receiver one for this team. Gotcha. This is the kind of the.

piggyback of if Dalton Kincaid was a rookie wide receiver, you might be okay with it. Mark Andrews is not a tight end, is what you're saying? Mark Andrews is not a tight end. He is not there to block. 27 times in his career. In his career. That's from PFF. Yeah, yeah. The data's from PFF. He ran a route on 90% of the Ravens dropbacks last year. That was tied for number one at tight end. He was targeted on 25% of his routes last year. That is number one among tight ends. To put that number into perspective, it is better than any Travis Kelsey season ever. I hope he was asked to pass block over 500 times. I hope he literally just literally allayed the guy through. I want to run a route.

Zay Flowers has been dominating, looks great in camp. I love it. But the number one target, still out of camp. The reports are Mark Andrews is still the guy. He's the number one guy. They're going to pass more. He is in the third round, not the first round. You're sacrificing taking Travis Eton or Aaron Jones instead of sacrificing taking Austin Echler in the first when you go with Travis Kelsey. Let me ask you a question, genuinely. The case is there. I absolutely see the discounted Travis Kelsey. Like if you want the advantage at a onesie position, your best dice roll is going to be Mark Anderson, the third versus the guarantee of what you have to have with Kelsey. I know that Kelsey is going to finish one or two at the position historically.

Are you unhappy if you got four or five out of Mark Andrews? Super unhappy. If Mark Andrews finishes at tight-in, four or five, assuming it's not because of injury. Well, if he plays a whole season and finishes at tight-in five, yeah, I won't be happy. Well, you wouldn't be happy with injury either. No, no, no. Well, I mean, but yeah. But I'm actually making that point. I'm saying like three of the past four years, he's been four or five at the position. So it's been a ton of variables. It's been injury, quarterback. But it's still been the reality. So would you be unhappy with him at 4 or 5? That's all I was asking. I think that at the end of the season, he will be the tight end two or the tight end one, period. Okay. Anything to add there, Mike? No. Mark Andrews is a sensational pick in the 30. All right. We're going to be back with Mike's My Guy momentarily. We're back with my guy. This is...

My favorite my guy when I calculate or when I factor in everything that's going on around this player. Yeah, I mean, they say you don't like have a favorite child. Yeah, everyone knows that's not true. You just can't tell your children who the favorite is. Right. And we don't tell our my guys who a favorite is, but. I do because I put him in the wide receiver one spot. We're talking about Tyler Lockett. Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks, much like Mike Evans. is being extremely disrespectful when it comes to ADP. Currently on Sleeper, the wide receiver 30 going at the back of the sixth round. The player who has finished top 15, five straight years is being drafted as the wide receiver 30. And he doesn't even have a quarterback problem. Were those your top two wide receivers in the mock draft? Tyler Lockett and Mike Evans? They were.

They were, and I realized that when I took Evans yesterday, I was like, oh, this is, Andy will appreciate this big. Yeah, a little premonition. But like where I'm not out on Mike Evans, but Mike Evans, maybe you are out because you're like, ah, he's a Baker Mayfield problem. Ty Lockett has Gino Smith, who was literally the most accurate quarterback in the NFL last year as a starter. And he gets it done year after year after year. I understand they spent a first round pick on Jackson Smith and Jigba, the first wide receiver of this year's draft, a truly electric player, who I think is going to have a fantastic career. But the Seattle Seahawks are not done with Tyler Lockett. There was nothing on film, nothing that we watched of Tyler Lockett. Last year we go, uh-oh, uh-oh, Tyler Lockett may not have it. Top 15, like I said, five straight years. Tyler Lockett will be the starting outside wide receiver in two sets.