The 2023 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/18

It's also not uncommon when they're in a one wide receiver set for it to be Tyler Lockett. Last year, Seattle was a big play offense. This is surprising information for what we know of Pete Carroll. But last year they ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation, eighth an explosive pass rate. Last year they had 30 touchdowns of 10 plus yards. That was the most in the NFL. 71% of their total touchdowns came outside the 10 zone. When you have D.K. Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett that absolutely makes sense. Over the last two years, Tyler Lockett has 11 touchdowns of 20 or more yards that is tied with Devante Adams for the most in the NFL. And it's just Tyler Lockett started this train back in 2018. And I remember that season because Russell Wilson had a perfect pass rating going to Tie Lockett. And it was, he can't keep getting away with this. No one can keep doing this over and over and over.

And yet here we are. Tyler Lockett just keeps getting it done over and over. If you want to project into the future that that Jason is going to take over and be the number two target for the Seattle Seahawks, that's fine. But it is not happening this year with Tyler Lockett on his contract with still plenty more to give. The one thing, two things I'll add to your argument if you don't mind. It won. No receiver is probably better at working back to the quarterback when a play is developing than Tyler Lockett has been over the past few years. And the one other area where, like, I've wanted to throw the shade on Tyler Lockett because JSN is that good. He's had that good of a camp. He's a tremendous player. He's at an incredible camp. But what I haven't really considered, and you know how bullish I am on DK Metcalf, is I haven't necessarily thought that JASN could negatively impact Metcalf because of Metcalf's age. It's easy to be...

discriminatory towards the older Tyler Lockett and not and think, oh, D.K. McCabe won't be affected, but Lockett will be. Right. Whereas, you know, Tyler Lockett has kind of proven narratives wrong for the duration of his career. And this is a team that's going to have to throw the ball a lot. And it's just he, Tyler Lockett is an outlier player. At this point of his career, you have to look and say a guy who last year was playing in his age 30, year 30 season. And he was still fantastic. He just is an outlier of a player. In fact, over. I never thought that you'd be able to use Gino Smith as a point in his favor compared to Baker Mayfield. Here we are. Like you're like, this guy, you have a Baker Mayfield problem, but guess what? And in here. I got Gino. Here we are. In fact, over the last five years, on a per target basis, he is, in fact, the most valuable player in.

The NFL over the last five years on a per target basis, the targets are still going to be there. I don't think this team completely morphs away from what they were having success on offense this past year. And like I said, wide receiver 30. Maybe you aren't as bullish on me that Tyler Lockett can once again finish as a top 15 wide receiver. Well, that's okay. You don't have to be. What if Tyler Lockett finishes as wide receiver 22, 23? He's still an absolute smash pick at wide receiver 30 going in the back of the sixth round. It's just, it is an automatic pick for me. It was an automatic pick most of the offseason for Jason, I believe. Yeah. Tyler Lockett is one of your highest exposure. He is my most. He's my highest exposure. I had to make a rule.

to stop drafting him because I just couldn't, you know, if he got injured, he would ruin all of my leagues. How will you be able to handle the inevitable actual decline of Tyler Lockett? I'm not talking about this year. I'm saying like when he, like Frank Gore was eternal until he wasn't. Like Tyler Lockett will hit. Certainly. Like could you two handle that? I think we will be able to predict it. I think we'll see it on the field. We'll see some of the decline and then the following year will be out. Oh, I hope you turn on him the way you did Adam Thielen. Oh, exactly. I hope you hate him. He is a perfect, perfect example because of how terrible and putrid Adam Thielan was last year. Yeah, you saw the decline of Adam Thieland. We have not seen the decline of Tire Lockett. And then just another feather in his cap, which NFL people may cringe when they see it because Tire Lockett catches the ball and he says, you shall not hit me.

And he just goes out of bounds or he dives to the ground. Literally lays down. He paid Mannings. This is part of his success. Why is Tyler Lockett still wide receivers? Why is Lockett still this great when he's going to be 31? Because he doesn't take big hits. He says, a little. So it's a smart move. He says, I don't want this in my life. It was the whole Darren Sproul said his big goodbye, I don't essay. I don't know what to call it. But he brought up. Getting hit is just terrible. That's why I tried not to get hit. And Tyler Lockett read that goes, hmm, Mr. Sproulz, you are on to something. So Tyler Lockett, Mike's first, my guy. Let's move on. I'm going to reveal my second my guy. And I'm very excited about this player. I am entering territory that is very dangerous here on the fantasy footballers podcast. I'll explain why or maybe you'll understand it inherently. But my second my guy is.

Jamir Gibbs. Running back Jamir Gibbs of the Detroit lines. In fact, when we put out a few social media messages asking the Foot Clan to try to guess my guys, this was the one most often mentioned around my name. And I don't feel like I've gone on monologues about Jamir Gibbs. I thought it was interesting. I think what has happened is that every single mock draft we've ever had this offseason. It's organically been a target to pick up Jemir Gibbs. Like I mention him and I prefer him and I take him above other players because. It's his gravitational pull. You can't get out of it. Which historically on this show and historically in life, running backs for the Detroit Lions not named Barry Sanders, it has not gone well. Whether it's the Abdullah Express. Yeah.

Hey, he's still in the league? Or that Carryon Johnson guy. Oh, my gosh, Abdullah is in the league. Yeah, you're doing right. He is. Carry on isn't. But listen, the Jamir Gibbs, I'm going to have the guts of steel. I'm going to go out on the limb and I'm going to take a shot. I'm going to target the late third round number 12 overall pick for the Detroit Lions, Jamir Gibbs. He's a rookie. I know it. But what I love about this pick in fantasy is that you're not. Just drafting a floor player. You're going to get a guaranteed floor with Jemir Gibbs. What you're drafting is a ceiling. You're drafting the potential to be a massive impact player for your fantasy team and you're getting him late in the third round. It is not outlandish to believe that Jemir Gibbs will be talked about as a top five draft picked in next year's draft. That is a possibility. And this is the only time you're going to get to do.

What I'm doing, which is taking him in the third round of drafts, he was drafted at 12 overall. And the history we have with running backs taken, that high in the draft, your floor is so incredibly high. We had Gurley, Zeke, McCaffrey, Sequin, Jacobs, Clyde, and then this year, Bijon and Jamir Gibbs. So you're talking about since 2015, those are the first round running backs. Clyde and Jacobs. were the worst first year performers, but they were picked 24 and 32 in the first round. And they still gave you the floor I'm talking about at 12.2 fantasy points per game for Clyde and 14 fantasy points per game for Josh Jacobs. The other guys that were drafted up near the Gibbs range, Zeke was 20 a week, McCaffrey.

Barclay was 21 a week. McCaffrey was at 11.8, so he was a little bit lower as a floor, but Gurley was 15.2. So you're talking about super young, age 21 season, running backs with first round draft capital. We've talked a lot about the fact that targets are going to be the name of the game for Jamir Gibbs. Targets are worth two and a half times a rush attempt, which means that in a full PPR league, which is especially enticing for Jamir Gibbs, If you have 125 rush attempts, which I think Jemir Gibbs will absolutely get to 125, and you have 70 targets, that's worth 335 carries. So if I told you you got 335 carries from a running back, you're taking it 312, 310, 311 in a fantasy draft, you would scoop that up. The unknown of the rookie performance is what puts a lot of fear into people. And I think Jemir Gibbs is just that guy.

I think Jemir Gibbs from a talent perspective is that good. And, you know, you look at the Lions offense. Last year, they were fifth in points per game, fourth in total yards. They averaged in home games, 58 plus total points per game in terms of fantasy production. And here's the biggest stat maybe, because we've all kind of revealed something a little unknown about a player we've been talking about. The Detroit Lions backfield. led the entire NFL and fantasy points per game last year. They were better than every other team. And that was with Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift. And they literally upgraded both of those players this offseason. Jamir Gibbs was targeted in the draft by the Lions. It surprised people. But they went out and basically said,

We're going to draft you at 12 and we're going to build an offense around you. And so I think this is the one chance you're going to get to have a discount on a player that's going to make a huge impact. And you're going to get big games from it. You're going to get a floor, but you're going to get huge games. You're going to get the screen pass that goes 74 to the house. You're going to get, I mean, the baked in upside that Mike mentioned on some situations yesterday where, you know, what if David Montgomery gets? Yes, exactly. Montgomery was not there right now. Where's Jamar Gibbs in draft? He's high second around late first. Yeah, late first.

Yeah, I mean, he's beat. He'd probably be drafted right after Bejohn. Yeah, I mean, you look at Bejohn was, what was he, eighth in the draft, 108, Gibbs was 112. There's a little bit of that, you know, you have to spend the first round pick on Bejohn. You get to spend a late third on Jemir Gibbs. Both players drafted with the intent to build an offense around him. So I'm a big fan of Jemir Gibbs, and I think he's going to be a great fantasy pick this year. Young, explosive, super athletes. are usually really good picks for fantasy football. Rookie running backs are usually really good picks for fantasy football. First round rookie running backs are almost always good picks in fantasy football. Detroit Lions RB1, it gets scary. Does that one red flag just stop everything from happening?

All right, let's move on. Yeah. Do you realize what you've just done to yourself, Andy? Oh, I'll take it. I'm willing. No, I'll say it hitting the drop. Yeah. That's poking the bear. I'm brave as a lion. All right. Uh, I am going to stay in that division. And my next my guy is someone that I just had a bug in me. I had to have this guy. Welcome aboard. As a my guy. Justin Fields. Justin Fields at the end of last year when I was leaving the season, I was like, I just can't forget how dominant he was. I can't allow anything to get in the way of that. That was like one of those things to remember as I left the season. And what happened last year? If you remember or maybe you don't, I will remind you, there was a...

a philosophical shift in the offense and how they used Justin Fields. The coaching staff came out and literally said, because they were like, what changed? We went and looked at the other great mobile quarterbacks, the Jalen Hertz, Lamar Jackson, and we saw how they were used, and so we started doing that. And it was really cool. It was really good. They changed everything to make him better. It was the coolest, man. Here's what they did. They gave him more designed runs. So a designed run is basically his rushing attempts minus scrambles and kneel downs. The first six weeks, 2.17 design runs per game. From that point on, 7 through 18, it was up to 5.3 designed runs per game.

He averaged 7.1 yards per carry, highest in the NFL. He averaged 10.6 rush attempts per game and the most quarterback scrambles of all time. He tied Lamar Jacks for the most rushing games of 80 plus yards with seven of those, and he is just getting started. We haven't seen the best Justin Fields yet. Over the last decade, 13 quarterbacks have had... more than seven and a half rushing attempts per game and started at least 15 games. Okay, remember, he just averaged 10.6. I'm setting the bar here at only seven and a half. I think that he definitely hits seven and a half rushing attempts. So if we assume that that, which I think is fair, if we assume that, let's take a look at the 13 quarterbacks that have had that many rushing attempts. They average 22 and a half fantasy points per game and four point leagues.

There are guys like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hertz. Here are their fantasy finishes for quarterbacks who have had that rushing baseline. The quarterback two on the season. The quarterback won on the season. Four, three, two, two, three, one, five and five for Justin Fields. It's all top five. The only finishes outside of the top five, well, you had quarterback six. in 2021 Hertz, and you had quarterback seven in 2020 Lamar. They're all great. And there's one, there's Patriots Cam Newton. Oh, yeah, we don't want to talk about that. But this is not, you know, those are design jogs. Right, exactly. So that he doesn't, John, he doesn't, he doesn't count. That version of Cam Newton was toast already, and on a bad offense. That's not what, what Justin Fields is. Justin Fields is.

Like I said, a young explosive athlete. It's going to be a great pick. And then they upgraded his passing. They upgraded his offensive line. They got him DJ Moore, which we already saw a screen to the house, two screens to the house from this offense in training camp. And the reports out of camp are just absolutely awesome. The wrap-up article from the athletic just said this. You could see the difference in how he runs the offense. This is his team. He is in charge. They aren't going away from designed runs. He has a better receiving core. He easily could be the quarterback one. He's basically, I mean, last year. He's got Jalen Hertz of this year. That's what I was going to say. Last year, it was Jalen Hertz for me. That worked out really well. This year, it's Justin Fields. A couple things. Based on the math that you just laid out there, the worst fantasy finish of players with that seven rushing attempts per game was number five. He's being drafted as the quarterback six right now. So below the floor.

theoretically. Secondly, you love Justin Herbert too. I want to give you the chance to share on the Justin's, but what you don't get with Justin Herbert is a kind of built in almost like the rushing is, it's like you got an insurance policy on the draft pick, right? Because Justin Herbert, if the touchdowns aren't what we hope, which look, I went back and looked at my bold predictions from last year. I thought 5,000 yards, 45 touchdowns was going to happen for Justin Herbert. It didn't happen, so you were disappointed. Justin Fields gives you so much more protection, even if the passing game doesn't take the elevated, you know, step forward that we hope it does. Yeah, I had Justin Herbert locked on our board as my my guy for the last month. He was going to be it. And then I just, I said, I can't, I cannot not have Justin Fields. I think they're both absolutely great picks.

They're the quarterbacks that I want in that fourth, fifth round. Okay. I'm jumping in here with my number two, wide guy. Wide guy? Wide guy. I like it. He's a big fatty. What's the? What did you say the beef eater? The beef, beef, beef, beef boy. Oh, beef boy. Beef boy. Whatever. It's a wide receiver that I really like, guys. Oh, he's a wide guy. Chris Olave, which I got to apologize. I've been calling him Christopher. He's apparently Christian Olavee. Oh, really? My sincerest apologies. Christian Olave. Christianifer. Second year wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints. Now, this one is, it's a little tougher to have a my guy when they're this high up in the ADP. He is currently going at the 305 in a...

on Sleeper, but my conviction of Chris Olave turning into an elite wide receiver, like Andy's making the case for Jamir Gibbs of like, you aren't going to be able to draft Jamir Gibbs there anymore after this year. Chris Olave will not be anywhere close to this. 23 years old, heading into year two. And I'll start with the big comp because Garrett Wilson, last year's offensive rookie of the year, plays for the New York Jets. Got himself a nice quarterback upgrade, got Aaron Rogers now throwing him the ball. The excitement for Garrett Wilson is real, and I think it is justified. But remember this. Last year, Olavi outpaced him in points per game. On the season, Garrett Wilson appeared in all 17. Chris Olavi appeared in 15 games, and yet Olavi was just 12 total points, fewer on the season.

than Garrett Wilson, and he's going a full round later on ESPN, looking at all the rookies, the rookie wide receivers since 2014. And we got heavy hitters in this group. We got Beckham, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase. Only Tyreek Hill had a higher targets per route run than Christian Olave. This team already loved him as a first year wide receiver. And he is truly the number one guy out of camp. They're talking about Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas just, he doesn't look like 2019. Michael Thomas, which that's, yeah, that's, of course. That's what we would expect a long, long time ago. That was a very long time ago. That's multiple season-ending injuries ago. But I think they're just, they're making it clear. Chris Oliva is next. You have Nick Underhill, beat reporter for the Saints, tweeting.

Crystal Lave looks like a expletive superstar. The Saints observation. The first fight of training camp. Yeah, we got that. And Crystal Lave looks unstoppable. And these aren't just like Crystal Lave is looking good out of train camp. It's holy crap. Crystal Lave looks like he's about to take the leap and become the true next superstar. And he. While Olave was much better in the beginning half of the season when they had James Winston and when they turned to Andy Dalton, that was a downgrade for him. He has an upgrade at quarterback. It's not as a sexy of an upgrade as getting. It's not Geno Smith. It's not, well, I'm saying as Aaron Rogers is for Garrett Wilson. But Derek Carr, while he has never come through for big time fantasy points himself, he has given us fantasy weapons a ton in the past. Last year,

The trade for Devante Adams? Oh, crap. Can Adams do it without Aaron Rogers? Yeah, wide receiver three. The year before that, some guy named Hunter Renfro, which is a joke. Hunter Renfro is a good wide receiver, but wide receiver 11 on the year. Multiple years of Darren Waller being the Titan 3, Titan 2. Jared Kuk. Remember the Jared Kuk? The Jared Kukh years. The Jared Kukh years. He finishes the Titan 5. You can go back even further. You had Michael Crabtree years. You had Amari Cooper years. Derek Carr. finds the target that he likes, and he's not afraid to go to that player over and over and over. And that is sensational news for fantasy football. People doubted the downfield prowess of Adams last year, and they were proven. That was a mistake to doubt that. And Devante Adams has the best.

a year in success of going downfield that he's ever had. Derek Carr, I think Derek Carr with Crystal Lave, we're talking about a superstar. I want to play Tampa. I want to play against Tampa. I want to play against Atlanta. I don't want to play against Carolina for six of my games as well. That is also baked in that the preseason strength of schedule in our ultimate draft kit. If you go look at who has, who's got the best schedule for the wide receiver position? Boom. Christian Olava. So that's just an extra bonus point for a player that I see as a true emerging superstar. This is my favorite, my guy that is not one of mine. It's your favorite, your guy? Christian Olave is going to dominate. He is apt. I don't see any world where he doesn't. I mean, he's just too dang good at football. Not going to get an argument for me.

But we're going to talk about another sophomore wide receiver from my third and final my guy. Jahan Dodson. Chris Olavay was the 11th pick in last year's NFL draft. Jehan Dodson was the 16th pick in last year's NFL draft. Chris Olavet is being drafted at 305. Jehan Dodson is being drafted at 801 right now. Dodson, we've got Dodson here. Thanks, Al. Thank you. You got it. Well, Dennis Ned recall out. Last year, John Dodson was at 14.9 yards per catch. Olavu is at 14.5. I bring these guys up in comparison because there's a lot of similarities. Both of them had very impressive stretches of the season disrupted by injuries. Olavis disrupted by quarterback play. And so was John Dodson. The quarterback roulette in Washington has been ridiculous over the past few years. Both players would be way more hyped if they had a full season of football last year. They'd be higher draft capital picks.

But Jehan Dodson is at such an extreme discount and fantasy drafts. He started last year extremely on fire. All you need his eyeballs to watch with this guy is capable of doing on the field. Started his NFL career with two touchdowns in week one, had a great four-game stretch, then missed five weeks due to a hamstring injury. And when he came back, this has been repeated this offseason. But over those final five weeks, when Jehan Dodson, who was a rookie, Right? So he missed time as a rookie, still came back and still outpaced Terry McLaurin in terms of target share. 119 target pace, 1,100 receiving yards, 10 touchdown, 71 reception pace over the final five weeks with relative ineptitude at quarterback for this franchise. So the discount to me is absolutely wild. You want to take that discount to the next level? Hop over to ESPN. If you're drafted on ESPN, he's going at.

907, which is the wide receiver, 42 off the board, which is absolutely insane to me. And, you know, Mike is investing in a sophomore wide receiver. I'm investing in a sophomore wide receiver as my my guy. You should too. It's always a- It's all the rage. It's a great bet in fantasy. It is. Jason, actually, you wrote an article a number of years ago called the sophomore bump. Mm-hmm. And it's real. It happens. Of the sophomore wide receivers with an average draft position of rounds four through eight, which is the Dotson zone, 90% of them beat their rookie fantasy points per game, 85% of them outperform their ADP. The connection in camp with Mr. Howell, go ahead, has been strong. And so you have an opportunity here to, after you've built the core of your team, to invest in Jahan Dotson and legitimately have a chance at, you know, 75 to 85 receptions,

over 1,100 yards receiving. And last year we saw the touchdown upside in Jahan Dotson. He can get into the end zone. And so it's not a knock on Terry McLaurin. It's a 1A1B that you're getting this late in the draft. And if Chris Hal has any of the talent that Jason has professed that he does, which so far, this earning the job in Camp Over Berset is a great. Did you just say Chris Howell? Did I? You did. Shout out to Chris Howell, one of our longest lifetime listeners. Makes an appearance. Sam, Hal. It's better this year. Howl upside Jacoby, floor that provided value to Mr. Amari Cooper last year. So your two options right now look a lot better than they did last year. I've got him ranked as a wide receiver two that you're getting in the eighth or ninth round. Yeah, and I can easily see the path. He has really been dominating in camp. And it seems like...

When we did our first rankings post ultimate draft kit statting things out, my research showed me that I really believe there was going to be a consolidation of targets here. It's why I like Terry McLaurin so much. And it's also why I like Jahan Dodson. Jahan Dotson is so much cheaper. You can get them late in your draft that sometimes it makes me question whether I want to take Terry McLaurin, who a lot of people said, well, he'd be a my guy, but the better value. is Dotson, and they're both extremely talented. They'll have a ton of targets, a ton of value. You guys just went back to back second year, sophomore wide receivers. So who do you got? Wide guys. I'm going not so old as you old losers. I'm going with a rookie. Jordan Addison. Jordan Addison is a really good wide receiver. That's the core of my case.