Fantasy Football - Regress or Impress + 2nd Half Studs, Horse Talk - Podcast for 3/26

The plan right now is, hey, our offense is magma. Our offense is amazing. Can we fix things on the defensive side? If we waste a pick on a high-end running back for no good reason when you get this production from Chase Brown, to me I'm going to go impress on Chase Brown. And he's an electric receiver. He had the fourth most targets at the running back position. And on receptions, he had the third most. forced missed tackles. Now when Mixon was there, we got the random Smashe-A-P-Rine adventure. Yep. P-Rine did get re-signed. And at the end of the year, P-Rine did get some goal line work. Chase Brown is capable at that, you know, but as is P-Rine. So that will happen over the course of the year. But when you have the amount of work that Chase Brown gets combined with how great he is as a receiver, it's...

I will have no problem drafting him wherever he's going. I agree. We're all going to be impressed here. His last 10 games, which are really the games that matter because you're talking about once they found something at the quarterback position, those last 10 games, seven of the 10, he was not like, oh, he was a good week. It was top 10 weekly finishes, 70% of those games. The other three were still RB2s. It wasn't. zero bad weeks during that stretch. The fact that he got off to such a slow start with the Joe Burrow injury and was so devastating. I mean, this was a guy that when you're going into week five, week sick, you're talking should you be dropping him? Should you cut Chase Brown at that point? And I don't think he's going to be overdrafted. Going into this year again, he's not going to be someone that people are crazy bullish on. There will be enough fear from the first five weeks in last year.

Every league will have one of 10, one of 12 people who hates Chase Brown because they drafted him last year and it didn't work. And I would love to see the numbers of the people who drafted Chase Brown and rode out the whole season with him. It didn't get to the point where there's like, this crap sucks. I'm out. This guy stinks. He'll never be good. And then they trade him or they cut him. And then the beneficiary of Chase Brown was not the drafter. No, and it was the same with Burrow and Chase. I mean, you, you, right. Like, those guys got moved. Jamar Chase was not a great option for five weeks with Browning. No, he was unstartable. The Flacco Revolution saved the day. If you did draft Chase Brown, you know, those final three weeks were the final two weeks, championship and semifinals, the running back four, the running back three, if you kept him the whole time, you probably weren't in the playoffs. Like he either was a real.

great player for someone who picked him up or he was so bad in the beginning that he hurt you and you're going to never draft him again. Kenneth Gainwell, who is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Second half of the year he was the running back 12, kept surprising in Pittsburgh, kept becoming more and more utilized in Pittsburgh, signs a, well, kind of used that year to sign a two-year deal worth up to 14 million in Tampa. 10 million guaranteed. That's not nothing. He's 26.9 years old entering his sixth year. He did lead the Pittsburgh Steelers in receptions. Yeah. Embarrassing. Which is impressive for him and embarrassing for DK Metcalf. And for the Steelers as an organization. I don't think you ever want a running back to lead your team in receptions. And if you and if your running back does.

lead your team in receptions. You hope it's Christian McCaffrey or someone that is like one of the best players in the league, not coming into the season, your second or third string running back. So, I mean, I feel like this is one where my instant default easy answer is going to be regress because you kind of had a unique situation. There wasn't a lot of weapons in Pittsburgh. You did deal with some injuries at the running back position. He became kind of integral. It seems like one of those things that would depart from fantasy value when you leave that scenario and you have, you know, all the wide receivers and tight ends and Bucky Irving in Tampa. Is that the side that you're going to go with? I don't think I'm fully committed to regress because he's a good player. Those things would not have happened in Pittsburgh if he weren't showing out with talents. I mean, you...

You went into that year. Jalen Warren had just received, you know, a baby, a micro extension for his bank account. And then by this second half, Kenneth Gainwell had kind of overtaken him in terms of the timeshare. Kenneth Gainwell and Bucky Irving is going to be extremely difficult because I don't have a strong, I don't have a strong enough conviction in Bucky Irving to say, This signing doesn't matter. Two year, 14 million. You know, I don't really care about Kenneth Gainwell. I do care. But Bucky is also a tremendous player. It feels like a conversation around Bucky, really. Yeah. I mean, obviously Bucky is undersized could get injured. We saw him get injured last year. There's also some, you know, smoke about the mental, you know, hardships that Bucky has gone through. So Bucky, to me, is a great player who is.

so far ahead of Kenneth Gainwell where he will retain, like, Rashad White was involved last year. Rashad White played 17 games and was the running back 34. He's pretty irrelevant. If Bucky Irving were to go down or out for any reason, then I do think Kenneth Gainwell is a very interesting player. But what Kenneth Gainwell did this last year was really... take on a role, even when Jalen Warren was active and healthy. Kenneth Gainwell was still leading the team in receptions, was on the field all the time, was running routes, and I don't anticipate that being what they brought him in to do. They brought him in to just be a replacement of Rashad White, a backup, a spell. But he's much better than Rashad White. Yeah, but much worse than Bucky Irving. I don't think he's much worse than Bucky in my evaluation of it. I think he is.

much, much better than Rashad White. And so it's what happens when all that work that Rashad White got? What happens when it's a good player? What happens to Bucket Irving then? Sure. You look at Gamewell, the runner that way? Or just the versatility that way? Really both. I mean, he's a, for his career, he's a 4.4 yards per attempt runner. I mean, Rashad White could never. He seems to endear himself to the team that he's on. That is one thing that you can say about Kenny Gainwell is that he's, somebody that does all the dirty work, all the stuff that you don't see that doesn't show up in the fantasy football statutes, and teams end up falling in love with him and giving him more time. And that would be my concern for Bucky. But it doesn't mean that I think that the fantasy value is going to be consistent for gain well. I'm going to go regress. Yeah, I lean that way, but I'm curious. Do we know where, Kyle, do we know where Bucky is going?

in like what's the temp what's the public temperature right now on bucky irving because that might it might end up being a situation where i'll just be willing to miss of what bucky's going to offer rb no wait bucky's 37 no that's got to be gainwell 37 bucky 17 okay okay see that makes far more sense bucky 17 bucky at 17 seems like a pretty good uh that's not bad i'm totally willing to take the shot on yeah on him there yeah i don't i don't want to forget what bucky is capable of doing um but we'll see all right we'll take another quick break and then we'll come back do a couple other regressor impress michael wilson oh boy good golly miss molly oh boy irrelevant in the first half of the year wide receiver three over the second half of the year irrelevant for what two and a half years yeah that's a better way to put it and then what year are we going into with wilson

Going into year four. And then he became Jerry Rice. Yeah. Yeah. When the team was throwing the ball 40 times a game with Jacoby Brissette. He was the wide receiver three. 17 points a game. No Marvin Harrison on the field for the majority of that. And film wise, stats wise, advance metric wise, separation. There was no flaw in his game. So the question is, was that the breakout or was that the opportunity of what the Cardinals were doing and the fact that he was kind of thrust into wide receiver one territory here for the Cardinals? Yeah, and it's going to come down to how we define impress and regress here because I don't think any of us are going to expect the performances of the second half of the year where wide receiver three or 17 fantasy points a game. But I would say here's how I would define whether it's a continuous

impress or he regresses back to not necessarily he's not going to be either he's not going to be the wide receiver 81 he's not going to be the wide receiver 3 that's what you're saying I think the best way to view it is is he the wide receiver one for the Arizona Cardinals or is Marvin Harrison Jr. the wide receiver because if he if he takes hold of that and is the primary non-Trey McBride receiving option for the Cardinals, then he is continued to impress. If he's not, if he takes that backup role and he's the third target on the team, you'd say he regressed from where he was. I think that he should be and he won't be. I think it's very good that Jacoby Brissette's the quarterback for Michael Wilson, but I don't think, like if you, because look, if we all had to place a bet today.

Put $100 down on the table and you click the Michael Ilsa button or you click the Marvin Harrison button and we presume health and we say what are the fantasy outcomes for those two players at the end of the year. I'm going to click Marvin Harrison's button. Oh, that shocks me. I am as well, but I thought I was going to be the only one here. Because sometimes it's just too squeaky. I think the targets will be there for Marvin Harrison. We're going into this is year three of Marv. Yeah. So as year three of Marv, year four of Michael Wilson. Yeah, I think, I think I would push. It's not that different. No, I know. I know. Look, I think Michael Wilson showed us consistently on a weekly basis that his, his talent is there. His capability is there on every level. Jason talked about the metrics. Right now, Marvin Harrison is the wide receiver 33 in best ball. Michael Wilson is the wide receiver 39 in best ball.

I would expect, just looking at that, I would expect both guys to outperform those numbers. Yeah. And that doesn't mean I'm going to be happy. It doesn't mean I'm going to get a wide receiver 15 number. But, you know, if they end 15 and 18, I won't be shocked. The nice thing about the Arizona Cardinals, so I was really pouring some cold water at the end of the season pointing out what happened to the Cardinals' defense, what happened where they put Jacoby Brissette in just through the ball every play. They lost every game. You know, every game that Jacoby Verset was a starter, they lost. And they threw the ball a cajillion times. And, you know, Jacoby was on pace for like, I don't know, 4,000, 5,000 yards. It was, it was asinine. And that that wasn't going to happen again. But I am not as convinced that they're not going to just continue to air it out and need to keep up. They have signed nobody of relevance, and nor do they want to sign. And by the way, I'm saying on the defensive side of the ball.

Can I just correct you, Jason? He was 1 and 11. No, in games he started. I don't think he... Oh, you think he came into one and got a win? I believe so. I could be wrong. Maybe he was 1 and 11 and did not go winless. He might have had a win. I don't... It was really just a joke. Yeah. You know. But the Cardinals, they have done the right thing, which is sign a bunch of worthless one-year deals. They have... the most cap space going into next year. They are not going to be a competitive team. Their defense is going to continue to be bad. And with Jacoby Brissette back in tow, I do think that they're, for fantasy purposes, Andy, one of your things to remember this year was, like, bad teams really ruin good players. And I think that's so true of, you know, the Browns and the Jets.

Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, they're not going to, I don't know if it's the, and I know we're Cardinals fans, but I hate the Cardinals. I do think that the offense will have fantasy football relevance. You should revise bad offenses or just bad quarterbacks. Yeah, maybe that is. Jacoby's not bad. He's not a long-term starter, but he's not a bad quarterback. Yeah, he beat, he beat the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, as a starter? As a starter? He started that snap. All right. Go Jacobi. He beat the Cowboys of all teams. Yeah, he did. And that defense. No, I think you could make some tweaks. I mean, their offense was great. I mean, legitimately, there's a reason why Detroit went out and got the blobfish from Arizona. And it was because of the success he had with the Cardinals had more players than injured reserve than the final four teams than the NFC playoffs combined.

So the Cardinals dealt with massive injuries, fourth string running backs, no Kyla Murray, and they had a pretty dominant offense for the back half of the year in terms of production. And that's why, you know, you will have a change at the offensive coordinator. You're bringing him, you know, LaFleur, who's going to take over, and that's going to bring some variables. But I think part of it is going to be, you know, the Cardinals have two ways to go on Marvin Harrison. It is. But staying neutral on it is not going to be one of them. You're either going to go the direction of this is not going to work here and he's going to get moved and it's not going to happen or are you going to go the direction if we're going to make it work and the targets are going to be there. But staying neutral, I don't think it's going to happen. And I think that's part of the agenda for LaFleur. Mike, who do you think has the better fantasy season between those two wide receivers? Andy and I are on the side of taking the shot on Marv. If I had to click the button right now, I would click Michael Wilson. Okay.

I, which is it, where, what's so difficult for Michael Wilson is the first two years in the league, my opinion of him was he is not that good. Like he was not getting away. He was not creating separation. He was not handling his business. I mean, he was just a, he was like a wide receiver three type, you know, of you should be on a team, but you're nowhere near the level of a player who can take over a game. And over the second half, he did that. He took over games while Tray McBride is still on the team, where Marv, we've seen him take over maybe a couple times. So it's hard to change your opinion, or speaking of myself, it's hard to change my opinion of how bad I felt about Michael Wilson to what we saw over the second half. One more name for you. We get to talk about him forever.

Kyle Pitts, eight fantasy points of the game in the first half, tight in 16, not the end of the world, but not helpful. Second half of the year, the tight end three had the greatest game for a tight end of all time in week 15. It's really skewing the average. You're going to hear like tight end two around Kyle Pitt's name. His 9.8 fantasy points per game is the lowest ever for a tight end two. So it wasn't great. for tight ends last year. And week 15, I don't know what the numbers would be. Oh, I've got it. Without the 40 point week 15, he would have been 7.9 a week. And that would have been the same as Britain Strange and Dalton Schultz. So you don't want to take away the ability to put up the biggest game of all time. But at the same time, you know, that's a pretty special outlier game. So in best ball right now, going after Kyle Pitts is Sam Laporta.

Aranda Gadsden, Dalton Kincaid, to get cheaper over Kyle Pitts, I think I would go that direction. I mean, the quarterback questions for Atlanta are very real. Will Pennix be healthy? Is he even good enough? And then if that's not the answer, then your solution is Tua, how good of a solution is that? Yeah, I think what was I seeing? Because there were some comments around Tua being willing to mentor. Michael Pennix and it's like one of them's like two is 28 Pennix is 26 he was older remember yeah so it's like these guys are really not that different in terms of like but experience they're very different very very different but also you know who do you think wins the job oh Pennix yeah I think Pennix will have the beginning of the season the I don't know how to go from there the issue with Kyle Pitts I mean the same thing we were saying about um

You know, I'm out. Yeah, Trevor Lawrence being young. Regress. Kyle Pitts is only 25 years old. That's the argument. At the end of the year, he leveled up, he showed out. They're going to come in next year with a better plan for him. He's going to figure it out. That is the argument. Oh, Stefansky. I know. Am I being in? Let me talk you out. When you look at last season how bad he was, and then you hit week 13. And all of a sudden he's the tight in six, the tight in seven, the tight in one, the tight in three. Like just awesome. That's no Drake London, no Drake. That was when Drake London got injured. Yeah. So all of a sudden it became the de facto number one target for the team and then had to put up points. He's at least the de facto number two right now. Yeah, but he was the de facto two before that and he wasn't very good. Well, it's funny because you said if you took week 15 out, we'd be at 7.9 fantasy points per game. His first half of the year was 8.2.

for the first half, which is tight in 16. So if you look at that, you know, he's going to regress from his fantasy finish at Titan for sure. Yes. He's going to regress in his fantasy points per game of the second half of the year. I don't think you're getting 11.6 over the second half of the year. So, you know, I think overall, unless he is cheap, which maybe he will be, but I don't think so. I think there's a lot of reasons for people to believe in him right now. I will be happy. I don't think I'll draft. I will be very happy to grab him for a matchup off the waiver wire. I will do that once or twice through the year. He will be there. Maybe not week one, but he'll be there. And you can grab him and play him in the right matchup. He looks like a player at least right now of, we bring up the phrase or the kind of the saying of like,

when there's certain players just, I'm willing to be wrong, you know, by drafting them. I'm willing to be wrong about Kyle Pitts of bypassing and let someone else, if you want to have the bravery and you want to get the reward, I accept that. Let me, let me see if this final bit of information changes anything. Right now he is, he's going behind Harold Fanon and best ball, okay? He's going behind Tucker Kraft, who's going to come back from an injury and was really good. I think that all makes sense. The guys he's going ahead of, I don't know, maybe I would take him ahead of them. Sam Leporta, Orande Gadsden. Yeah. Dalton Kincaid. I think I'd take all three of those guys ahead of, maybe not Leporta. I would rather have them than Pitts. I wouldn't necessarily draft him ahead. Dude, I think I would. Don't Kincaid. That just, I mean. Don't Kincaid was. Kincaid's on the Pitt's career arc. Disappointing. At least, yes. Inconsistent.

I mean, both guys have dealt with injury. Obviously, DJ Moore being there will be the number one target in the offense, you would presume. But that could be good for the tight end position to open it up a little bit. I think Dalton Kincaid is more talented than Kyle Pitts. Gadsden is the most exciting. Leporta is on a better offense. So there's reasons, but they're all later. And that's the thing that you can't miss here. It's not that we would just overall. The offenses are better. Yeah, it's not that you would draft those guys over Kyle Pitts if Kyle Pitts was, you know, being drafted as the 110th player where Gadsden is. But if you're telling me I can wait and take a player that, I don't know, I probably believe in in the player more in Gadsden than in Pitts. And I can get them in the hundreds. I'll do that.

Okay. Glad we get to talk about Kyle Pitts again. It's on my birthday, too. I mean, that's not a big honor. It's not really a gift so much as a curse. But we're going to wrap it up. Appreciate you joining us. We'll be back with a couple more episodes next week. A reminder, join thefoot.com. If you want to head over there, we're going to be getting into the rookie previews. The Interfault Draft is really not. that far away. So we're going to start talking through the quarterbacks, the running backs, wide receivers, tight ends. The names you need to know and the players that we believe in are starting to believe in. Like pony boy. Sounds like we believe in pony boy. Yeah, that's the irony of that entire segment is that I'm pretty sure it was, it was a little demeaning. Well, it's just he has so many horse parts. It was all followed up by a impress, impress, impress, impress. Yeah.

Dude, horses are impressive animals. Thank you for joining us. I'm sorry, everybody. It's just who we are. We're children. We'll catch you on the next episode. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.