Keep/Trade/Cut + Herbert Outlook, Expired Milk - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/3

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You're back, baby. Scoot to be back, America. Thursday, June 3rd, I'm fueled by the Sun, Mike, the Phoenix Suns. Oh, yeah. Welcome to the fantasy basketballers. Look, man. It's been 12 years. Twelve years since I could hijack a football show with Suns News. Isn't that the priority here? It is. Make the Laker fans upset? Oh. Oh, we'll miss.

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Buy or sell Justin Herbert, 36 touchdown passes in 2021. Last year, rookie season, 15 games, 31 touchdowns. I have him statted for fewer than 36, so I have to sell this one. I still have him as my... That was anticlimactic. No anticipation at all. Well, I'm getting out of the way. I'm getting out of the way for you guys. But I will say this. He's my number eight overall quarterback. So he's still a top 10 quarterback. But I do not have him reaching that.

threshold. Now, you realize he'll be playing possibly two more games this year? I do. I do. Yeah. Okay. Which, I mean, last year's numbers, 31 touchdowns play two more games. You're, you know, you're right up against the 36 mark, but I think you're underneath it. Yeah, I think the 36 mark is a good threshold. When I saw this and I looked at my numbers, I had him at 36 and a half, looking a little deeper, I think that the touchdown rate for him,

So here's something interesting. Since 1975, the highest rookie touchdown rates, of which Justin Herbert is tied for the third highest. But if you look at anybody who had a 5% touchdown rate or higher, only one. And there's good quarterbacks here. There's Russell, Dick Prescott. Only one did not regress in touchdown percentage. That doesn't mean that they had a worse sophomore season, but it does mean they threw a fewer...

percentage of touchdowns per attempt. And, you know, looking at this, I think that that will probably be the case for Justin Herbert. It really comes down to the weapons for me. And the big difference for touchdowns is Jared Kukh. I know that seems weird, but if Jared Kukuk is spent, if he's done, if the light bulb is just dimming and about to go out and his career is over, then I think the opportunities for touch. Kenan's never been a real touchdown strong guy. Now, I think Mike Williams.

is being undervalued. Everyone is just crapping all over Mike Williams. Exactly. He had a very bad year last year. He's still a good player. He's, you know, an alpha athlete. So I think he could step up. But losing Hunter Henry, if Jared Cook comes in and has it, then he should beat this mark. If he comes in and, you know, is really a role player, then that's, then I'm going to take the under. I'm actually going to sell. It's a pretty high bar. Last year.

Chargers, fifth and pass attempts, sixth in passing yards. Second most plays in the NFL played very fast, injured defense. I mean, you've been making a lot of, you've discussed that defense improving. So, and new, you know, new system. So you could have a reduction. Mike, are you buying or selling? I am selling. I have him just under the mark as well. But his touchdown rate of 5.2%. That's not, you know, like the league average.

4.4, 4.5%. So he didn't come out here and do like a Lamar Jackson type of situation where every one of his 10 passes turns into a touchdown. So he could easily hit that threshold. I mean, if you're looking at the, what can Jared Cook do? Hunter Henry only contributed for receiving touchdowns this past year. If Jared Cook does chip in like Jason's talking about, then he could easily go over. But it was just such a.

strong season for Justin Herbert that I'm going to bet that it's a slight regression comes in. Not that I'm selling Herbert at all as a fantasy quarterback. I'm with you, Andy, that he's in my QB1 range. But 36 touchdowns, I think that would be, that would be a tremendous season. Where do you have him in your rankings? I'm looking at mine and I sold. I've got him at my quarterback seven. So I think he's going to have a solid season. But the, the,

The touchdown percentage I just can't see going north. The biggest regression in my statistical projection was just bumping down the rushing touchdowns. Right. Like five, maybe Herbert surprises us. And he really is that type of a player where he's like, Dak, you know, athletic and mobile enough. And then when he gets near the goal line, he just happens to sneak in a handful of touchdowns every single year. But I have him coming down from there. That's why I have him. That's probably why he's.

A couple spots lower for me than you guys. Now, is this going to be difficult on you? Like, are you still going to, are you so willing to call him big herbs if he doesn't get to 36? Yeah, did he change his last name? No, but I mean, is he medium herbs? Little herbs? Little herbs if he gets under 30? Under 30? Yeah, under 30's little herbs. We're going to retract his name? Yeah, you have to. You can't throw for fewer than 30 touchdowns and then still be called big herb. That's not fair.

No, I don't anticipate. It's not fair to the herbs out there. It's not fair to the Foot Clan. These names should mean something. Like Smash Jackson. Yes, exactly. Thank you. But to speak to your point on the rushing work, you know, the first half of his season, he was on pace for over 400 rushing yards. A second half, he was on pace for 144 rushing yards. When he was starting out, he used his escapeability more as a weapon. And then as he got.

You know, more used to the playbook. Well, you had Austin Echler back at the end. And Austin Echler back. He was able to stay in the pocket a little bit more. And you can check down. You don't have to run when you could throw it to Echler. That was by herself from pristine auction. That was what, two sales, one by, Jason? That was three cells. Oh, you did sell. I did. I wasn't listening. After I got my day out of the way, remember I said, I cleared the way. That was just like a daydream. He's like, I'm getting out of the way. And I'm like out of here. Yeah.

That's right. Buy yourself from pristine auction. Pristine auction.com. Use a code ballers. Get a $10 credit. Let's talk news. News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper. This news today has been curated, especially for Mike Wright. Because we're talking either champions of yesterday or champions of today. We are. We have something very special. Mediocre signing of the week.

The Texans have signed running back Rex Burkhead. Oh, sexy Rexey. I mean, is this Texans backfield thing? Is this like... What are they doing? Are all these like over the hill running backs just going like, no, they're giving money out over there. They're giving money out. So I think that is the... There's gold and then there hills. That's the weird question of like you're saying, how are the Texans building this?

you know, lowest Vegas win total odd roster. And what they're doing is they are bringing in every veteran they can for a little bit of money. And then I think they're just going to say like, oh, the competition will win out and the cream will rise. We're going to bring it. They've signed like 600 veterans. The cream has gone bad. Yes. And sometimes the milk has expired.

Usually when we have, you know, oh, this player has signed. This player has changed teams. I would come and I would follow up and say the ultimate draft kit has already been updated. We chose not to update this because I don't think Rex Burkhead makes the roster. Maybe he does. Philip Lindsay. Mark Ingram. No, no, but Philip Lindsay. I thought you were going through him all. No, no, no. Philip Lindsay, his birthday is July 24th. He will be turning 27 years old. And Philip Lindsay is the spring chicken. Oh, yeah. Of this running back crew.

What are they doing? They're getting experience. Well, you see Rex Burkhead was available, Mike. Pick them up. Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram, David Johnson, Philip Lindsay on a team that will probably average about 14 points per game. Guys, I'm getting texts from my dad who's rewatching the son's game. Uh-huh. And he's giving me score updates.

from a game he's already seen. What is he doing? He just let me know they're up by 21 with 722 left in the second quarter. Do you need to leave and go watch the game? He did watch the game yesterday. But in case something changes, I'm getting the updates right now. Do we need to bring your dad to a home?

Is it time? What is happening right now? Does he know that it's already happened? Maybe he doesn't know. Is this the upside though? Is this the upside of, you know, having your minding jobs? You get to watch the hits over and over and over. My father has just signed with the Texans. I've got like 10 updates. What is happening? I don't know, man. I got to go see about somebody to help out. Tell them don't watch the third quarter. Oh, my gosh. All right, Cowboys.

tied in Blake Jarwin says he anticipates being ready to roll. Both of those are in quotes. I find this curious because he isn't ready to roll now. Well, no, to be fair, it's ready to roll in training camp, which means it's not like a timeline. Like a lot of players are like, I expect to be ready to go for the start of the season. This is I'm ready to roll in training camp. Like that means it was a week one ACL tear. Yeah, you're, he should be fully good. He's been working out on the side. I am.

the maybe I guess the only one here that is very I don't think Blake Jarwin has a very good season I think he has a fine season and I know that I was the one of the the conductors of the Blake Jarwin hype train and I've been more mum on it this year I mean one he's coming off the ACL that's not my favorite thing in the world for a mid-level tight end to be coming off of that injury but the the difference for me this year for Blake Jarwin

is just that C.D. Lamb has broken out. Where last year coming into the season, yeah, he's a high-level, high-draft capital rookie. We expect him to be something. But Jarwin was already higher, so to speak, in the pecking order of the offense. And C.D. had to earn his way there where now he's there. Yeah, and I would add that the, you know,

What Dalton Schultz did last year was at least prove that he could be serviceable and that they can rely on him in certain situations. He wasn't phenomenal, but going into last year, it looked like Jarwin had that role to himself, and Dalton Schultz would be a backup. And I could see them utilizing both of these guys start the year. He's my tight end 15, so that sounds like I'm kind of high on him. But really, once you get outside of the top tight ends, it's all irrelevant. It's all streaming in the right matchup. Not a guy you're going to play week in and week out. Yep, that's my argument.