Keep/Trade/Cut + Herbert Outlook, Expired Milk - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/3

averaging out your points over the course of the season. He's giving you touchdowns. He's giving you burst games that win you the week. He had 9% of his rushes were for 15 or more yards, which is the highest percentage of runs by a running back in the league. He was absolutely outstanding. And I know we are, we're all kind of lower on Dobbins consensus-wise than what seems to be going on out there in the industry. But it's hard. Of the players where...

I feel like there will, there's a high chance that there's egg on her face. Dobbins is one of those players. I completely agree with that. That there is absolutely a world where, because I'm pretty, when it comes to like draft capital, what you have to spend, where he is in my rankings, I'm pretty out on J.K. Dobbins.

And he could absolutely be a top five back. I recognize that out. I mean, you did have Mark Ingram, even when he wasn't catching a lot of passes with Lamar Jackson, have five receiving touchdowns a couple years ago. So around the goal line, maybe those receptions are more valuable. And we've seen Mark Ingham as a top player, and Jake it happens is good. So I agree. Total egg could be on our face. And we know that at the end of season rankings of like the top 12 running backs, the majority of those guys will be on.

very good teams. And you'll just have a couple outliers running backs like James Robinson and David Montgomery, who will finish high, but they're on bad teams. I do think that Dobbins has the worst outcome, too, though. Okay. Because we... His lowest floor? Yeah, because we lived it. I mean, we lived efficient ingram and inefficient ingram. And so if you don't score enough, and I mean touchdown efficiency, if you don't score enough, you could be in the least... Like, Clyde Andrew Zillera is very safe, I think.

I think Swift is pretty safe too with just how few weapons they have and the fact that he will get the ball thrown to him a ton. His upside is limited by the offense, but he's going to be so involved that he'll be consistent. Where Dobbins, I mean, he does, you talk about who am I worried about taking carries away. Like the best backup in all three of these situations is actually Gus Edwards. Because Gus Edwards has been one of the most efficient runners for the first three. I don't remember the exact stat, so I'm not going to try to hit it out of the part. But it was something about.

first three-year efficiency, and it was like, you know, being over five a carry, and it was like him and Chubb in history. Right. And it was like for the first three years of their career, and Gus Edwards has just been effective. And so when you talk about, you know, the level of, you know, they like him. He's been on the team for a while. So, yeah, we could look dumb with Dobbins, but he's like one of those players that you're making the call of like, well, I'm okay missing here. And how, up in Detroit, though.

How many checkdowns is Jared Goff allowed before his really high-tie coach bites his kneecaps off? Oh, but. Because that's a low, checking down is very low-tee. It is? That's low-team move? Oh, low-tee move. Why they trade for golf?

Well, you've got to understand. He's going to get the ball handed off when they're down by a lot as well still. So that's the super high T. So it should make up. And can we go back to something Mike said just a minute ago? There was a point in which we like guns Mahoney, right? There was a point in time. As a tight end coach, whoa, look at that guy on the sideline. Heck yeah. Head coach TBD. But yeah, going back to something Mike said, I just want to.

I want to ask you, Andy, from the vantage point, let's say that you are a fan of the Chicago Bears. And someone says sometimes a running back comes from a really bad team, like the Jacksonville Jaguars or James Robinson or David Montgomery from the Bears. How would you feel? Would you feel like that's fair? Do you think of the Chicago Bears? I think that the Bears fan would be disappointed to be lumped into that group. I felt bad for them for a second. They were a 500 team, right?

I think they were eight and eight. Yeah, they were all right. But take that. When you're feeling kind of, you know, bad as a Bears fan, just say what you say three times fast. Justin Fields, Justin Fields. Yeah, that's right. And then you start to feel better. Before we move on, I'm dying. What is, what's the score? Oh, good. Thank you for the update. The Sun's game. Oh, no, the last update. Are we still up?

The last update was the same one. Oh, no. 318 left in the second. Call your dad, check on him. See if he's okay. He says he's going to probably skip the second half. Because he already knows what happens, right? I mean, why would you watch it over? His quote now is most reason one was, I can't watch enough of the Lakers getting thrashed. Thumbs up. I got you. Oh, man.

We're going to get it. The Chicago fans, the L.A. fans. Detroit fans can't be happy. Well, yeah, they're small. Where's the New York? Let's just take everyone out. Oh, my goodness. We love you all, Foot Clan from all cities. We didn't get to talk about your Pat McAfee appearance yesterday. That was fun and unexpected. We, uh, my, my joke tweet about Julio Jones going to every team in the league has gotten picked up.

everywhere and people think it's super serious and i'm not sure a j hawk wasn't still trying to drill down those 25 finalists you had identified yeah uh it was it was a fun time to go on the pat macfee show and talk about that and goof around and um continue the joke to uh that was that was fun be super serious you you went from like having tweeted that to them talking about it to being on the show in like five seconds it was a whirlwind of 15 minutes so where's he going

Well, according to my sources... What are your sources saying about Julio? They say that he is currently not going to the Los Angeles Rams, but every other team is in place, though. All right. I've added to the list. Did you, is Atlanta still on the list? Yeah, I mean, but... You left them on? That's after a... Tradeback? Tradeback, yeah. Well, I do think there was some news on that front. Arthur Smith. Arthur? He was non-committal as to whether Julio would show up at OTAs. All right.

Helpful. All right. Another keep trade cut here. We got a walrus. Against a couple of Seahawks here. Keep trade cut. Darren Waller. Chris Carson. D.K. Metcalfe. So we're going cross-positional keep trade cut. Going to the sea. I guess we're going to the sea. A couple of Seahawks and a walrus. Darren Waller, top eight tight end in 11 of 16 weeks. We've talked about him a lot. Chris Carson.

He's averaged 19 opportunities a year the past three years. D.K. Metcalfe, you know, you know those quads, those casks, those. Yeah, they. That ascending talent. They don't, we haven't seen that one on Twitter yet. Due to the not safe for work nature. Of the DK. METCAFs quads. Met quads. 129 targets last year, 83 for 1303 and 10. Wide receiver 7 finish. How do you feel about these three?

players. So I like all three players. I think that they each serve a valuable role for your team. But the more that I've done mock drafts, the more that I've dealt with roster construction in 2021, the more I'm convinced that if I were to take one of these three players who are all going around the same spot currently in drafts, one will help my roster far more than the other two. And it's surprising to me, but it's Darren Waller.

I am super convinced of his, you know, supreme dominance of targets in that offense. He will absolutely be the main guy. So he's just going to repeat what he's done the last two years, which is be, you know, like a 100 reception type of player at tight end where you can't make that up later in the draft. If I miss on Chris Carson and I miss on D.K. Metcalf, they could be great.

They could absolutely be great, but it's going to be very easy to replace at least a large percentage of those points with someone in the next round, in the next round. But once you get past Waller, and to me, I would throw Hawkinson in the mix of solid, certainly not guaranteed to be a weak winning positional advantage.

week in and week out. Into the mix with who? Into the mix with Waller and Kittle and Travis Kelsey just as far as irreplaceability within the position. Not Andrews? And Andrews, but he would be next on that list. Once you get past that, it's just. We got to pay a lot more for Metcalf right now than you do Darren Waller. Yes. Not that that's the question with the keep trade cut, but which I will get back to. But now I've got to ask Jason this question. Yeah.

Because I'm with you. I, the more I'm doing mock drafts, just, I'm grabbing a tight end early. It's, I mean, I'm just embracing this philosophy this year. This is what I'm doing. You're, you're getting, you're getting into this, Mike. Yeah. You might, if you're not careful, you might take two of them. You might end up taking two tight ends. You better watch yourself. It would just be an accident, which I'm glad you brought it up. You probably be fine. If you grab Kelsey in the second, while or in the third, you probably end up okay. You might, but.

We haven't had to field that question in a very long time. It's been a hot minute since there's been the Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Do not draft two of them with your early round picks. Don't do it. You're like, well, I get to put him in my flex. No, then you have to. You have no choice. Your flex is now the other tight end. You're tied in two. Because there's no tied into spot where you get to swap in players. Your flexibility when you draft the two tight ends.

it goes way down. So I do not recommend that. There's one of you in every league that thinks that's the, that'll be the cool move. Yeah. It's like it's hip. You're in, you're in. Look how different I am. They're going to come trading for one of these guys. Oh, so never draft to trade. Never draft to trade. So right now I'm looking at the, uh, the ADP. I might draft Hawkinson to trade from sleepy to Jason. Yeah. Because he'll give you his first rounder. Uh, so right now the half point PPR.

ADP from Sleeper has Darren Waller at like the beginning of the fourth round. Yeah. I saw 312. Are you, yeah, that was the PPR. Oh, okay. Are you, Jason, are you more in on that? And because we all consider Darren Waller to be very, last year he was, it didn't feel like he was safe. I think I've thrown all those fears away.

Coming into the year, didn't feel safe. Yeah, last year. They added rugs. They added Brian Edwards. They did all that. This year they lost Agalor and had John Brown. So are you more in on Waller for a back of the third round or using that back of the first, middle of the first on Travis Kelsey? So it's tough because you don't know for sure that you'll get Waller there. If I knew for sure I could go either direction. Let's go either direction.

I would absolutely take Waller at 312 over Kelsey. What about Waller at 301 versus Kelsey at 109? 301 versus Kelsey at 109. I think I would still go Waller. That one's really, really close. That is going to be a decision that people are going to have to make. You know, what you're giving up in, you know, a lot of people are taking Kelsey over Tyree Kill on the same offense. Kelsey and Metcalf are going right next to each other. So let's say Zeke and.

Darren Waller or Travis Kelsey and Clyde Edwards Aller. I would go Zeke and Waller. Okay. Yeah, I mean, that's going to be the dilemma. If you're going tight in, if you've committed to it, it's like, do you play with fire or do you grab Kelsey? Because somebody else might have the same idea. That's the thing is whenever you make the investment on the first guy, you just get them. You know, okay, I don't have to worry about tight end the rest of the way. You pass on Kelsey in that first and you go,

Yeah. Start getting the sweats. And then Mike takes Waller at like 302 and I go, no, no, no, no. His ADP was 312. Mike, Mike, look at this document here. I have the script. Yeah. You are off. I did not know we were off book yet. I have the script. Yes. All right. Keep trade cut, Waller, Carson, Metcalf. I will. I'm trading Metcalf keeping Waller. Are you? So you both are keeping Waller? I just, I think that in the different.

People love D.K. Metcalf. Chris Carson is being undervalued. But he has to be the cut here. Yeah, unfortunately. He was real close to keeping Matt Caff. I mean, nobody would blame you for keeping someone that could still take a step forward. If no one will blame me, I'm going to go D.K. Matt C. Okay. Oh, he lied. I blame you so much for that. Because you're the only one that could have done that. Oh, my goodness. And then I'll trade the walrus.

Let's look at tier five whiteouts, okay? Now, that's not the same thing as saying these are wide receiver fives, all right? This is alluding to the ultimate draft kit and our draft rankings and breaking them down by tiers. And these three players all fit in the fifth tier at the wide receiver position. So Adam Thielen, out of Minnesota, Robert Woods with the Rams, and DJ Moore with Carolina. Very close in our consensus rankings, obviously.