Fantasy Football - AFC East Breakdown + Late Round Strategy - Podcast for 7/10

Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Thursday, July 10th, Mike the fantasy hitman, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, the fantasy footballers podcast. Back at it, back with you. More talk, talk about football. Talkie, talk, talk. Another division. Yep. We are in the midst of our divisional overviews looking at the breakdown of the AFC East on today's episode. Some say the most important division to get right. Is that true? You'll find out. Okay. I thought you had more insight than the comment. Well, I was leaving it for the show, but we're doing the AFC East and the Miami Dolphins are question mark. They're definitely one of the bigger question mark.

weird wild card teams that exist. You could have the overall wide receiver won on that team. You could have draft picks that you throw into a furnace because that team still can't figure out the offense. Does it feel like they went eight and nine last year? No. Because they did. It does not feel that way. Which I believe that was the cult record. Correct. That we just went over in our last episode. Also did not feel that way. But I would say that we're all probably more bullish on the dolphins. prospects going forward than the Colts. I mean, to be fair, we, I think, picked the Colts to finish second in the division. I feel like we just got kind of bullied into that by Jason's strong arm. Like, don't be chalk. Yeah. Don't do what they did last year or what the odds say. Do something different. I mean, I'm guessing one of us at least picks the dolphins to be second in the division again this year. We'll find out later in the show.

But happy to have you with us. We got a good quick question of the show today. Quick question of the day for the show. I don't really know what's happening. We also have some news to talk about or at least some rumors, more things to get into. The Ultimate Draft Kit. I put in some updates this morning, was going through and auditing a handful of teams. As we often do, you can see all of those updates at Ultimate DraftKit.com, all of our player projections with... Stap projections for everybody. And the draft analyzer available right now as well so you can import your team from any platform and find out what we think about it, where your strengths and weaknesses are, other teams in your league. They get a grade now as well. And a reminder, we're three shows a week for the month of July. Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday. Oh, man. Lons stand no chance. No, you can mow your lawn any of three days.

Or if you're in Arizona, you know, spraying a little sprits on your turf. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, we don't, I guess is there, was there value to that routine? To which? The mowing. I guess the value is the natural grass that is cool to the touch. Yeah, no, no. I've, burn your feet. I have heard great things about it. I mean, like, of course, when you're young and someone brings up that, you're like, hey, yard work. No, absolutely not. I'm not doing chores. But as we've gotten older, I am a bit envious of... the other dads out there that can go out there on Saturday morning because it's nice outside. Yep. And then they mow their lawn. Not here. It's nice. It's nice where they're. I understand that. We know how you stand on physical movement. Right. Like you're actually envious of people going out and mowing their lawn. Yes. Mike, I don't know if it was a show. There is value to work. There is value to physical labor. You feel good about yourself. Thank you. I tried to tell Jason all of this stuff.

Like last week. Someone just was rejecting it wholeheartedly. Someone just came out with a new ad campaign where they were proving to people like measuring, I don't, endorphins, I don't know, but there's like a measurement of something of satisfaction and feeling good. And it like the outcome is when you're doing chores, you actually feel better than the, then the dopamine hits that you're getting like from social media and all this other bull crap. Of course. I agree completely. It's just what chores are you doing? For me, you wouldn't even change your air filter. You didn't change your air filter. There is a riding mower, Jason. All right. Okay. I'm a little bit more interested. When I say I'm envious, I'm not talking about a push mower. We can't even bully him into work. Yeah, this guy. But he does want us to give him credit for spreadsheet work. Well, I want to work on a computer. That's where I want my work to be.

giving me endorphins. You could do the lawn and your computer. Far too inspired by Wally. Far too inspired. All right. Let's go ahead and jump into that quick question. Look at those guys. They're living good lives. Will said, do you prefer to draft backup running backs for your starters or go for guys who will get the most work if their starter goes down regardless of the team? So I would say that there are many variables here of league size certainly matters. uh you know because they're like if i'm in a 14 teamer where i know that the waiver wire is going to be thin perhaps i am more inclined to take my insurance running backs the issue with it is at this point we all have our pick we all think we know who would get the primary work should a starter miss time sometimes you're right about that sometimes you're very wrong and you get left holding the bag of like i've rostered this

backup running back my starter goes down and now my backup running back isn't even the guy and someone else ends up usurping and taking over so that's an issue by itself and in but for the most part in the draft if i'm drafting a backup i'm taking somebody else's because it's a that is a ceiling play because if if some of one of my opponents starters go down and i get there i get the true starter for that team my team is so much better if i get my insurance running back It's just it's a floor. My team stays exactly the same. Your team should in theory get worse. Yeah, it will. Like when your main starter goes down and the backup comes in, if you've got that guy, your team still got worse. Yes. So yeah, I usually focus on just I don't really care whether they're on my roster or not to be completely honest. I usually care about the actual situation. There's there's only, you know, most years, three or four guys.

where I go into that season saying I would be willing to draft that specific backup because I think that there is value should the starter go down. That's that that's all it is for me. Is there anyone else that you could think of top of mind besides garendo? Because I think that's who I was going to bring up. People are going to be excited. That was going to be the counterpoint to kind of some of your perspective there. But that's just one situation. Correct. And that's how you have to view it. Situation by situation. There is not a broad brush. I mean, we get the question every year, do you draft the backups of your, you know, how much do you prioritize the backup? Almost to the point where it's like assumed you have to get the backup. I don't think any of us subscribe to you have to get the backup. Correct. But there are a handful of situations that I'm not going to, if Garindo's on the board and I have CMC.

I am not looking elsewhere for some other potential injury backup. I am going to get Garindo. And that comes with the nuance of knowing that Christian McCaffrey has been banged up and hurt. And we know that Garando can be effective and that I have confidence in that offense. Like I'm not going to blindly draft another backup just to have a different one on my team for sealing play. And Shanahan has showed us that when, like when McCaffrey's not healthy. he tends to lean on one particular running back. Also, a lot of the reason we draft the running backs that we have are because of situations and confidence in their offense and the running game and things like that. So, you know, my answer was kind of neither. I would prefer to spin those late flyers on a player that might have standalone value and has upside if an injury happens. Sure. More of a committee, like a Tajay Spears, who we'll talk about, or, you know, we recently talked about, you know, that kind of player.

I would say Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason's a great example. If they're going to get some work in the offense anyways, and then they benefit from an injury and become a top 15 back, that's my ideal situation. Although I think Garindo in particular, I would definitely target a player dealing with Achilles tendonitis in both of your legs is a player. I'm going to make sure that I'm protected. It's also relative to the investment, right? Like there's two sides of it. Okay, I want the ceiling because if somebody else happens to get hurt, I got two good guys now, but that predicates your guy staying healthy. Yeah. But there's the other side. If you don't insure that back and, I mean, imagine the other situation. You have Christian McCaffrey and you go out and get a backup for somebody else. When McAfrey gets hurt, you have a backup for somebody else and their starter isn't hurt. Yeah, you have nothing. Of course. It's a little bit of a... And they're all insurance things for what ifs. What if someone gets hurt? And then...

That doesn't even factor in, okay, you draft who you think. You're like, I got my insurance guy. I am locked and loaded. Now think of your bench management throughout the season. That bench spot now goes to that one player. And you know what the rules of life are because you're the main character. You're the main character. Exactly. Yeah. That's why the answer to me is neither in most cases. Just get somebody that I believe will have trade value. that I believe will have opportunity, but still stands alone and doesn't just sit there like a lump on my bench just waiting for bad things to happen. I would say this year, more than in recent years, there's not many. Like, you know, like Jordan Mason's a great asset, but I don't view him as just an insurance back. Yeah. This year, when I'm looking at like, who are the insurance backs that I want? Okay, Garendo, obvious situation there. Trey Benson, I think you've got an older, commonly injured James Connor.

ahead of him and the news has been good out of camp. Yeah, I think he'd be great. Would you draft Trey Benson, though, if you weren't the Connor manager? Yeah, yeah. I have a hard time seeing somebody. I mean, because... I mean, it just depends on what round you're in. It's just a waste of a bench spot for... I mean, obviously, if there is not an injury to Connor, you're getting nothing out of him. It's a matter of how deep is the league, what round are you in, who else is available. I'm not going to take Trey Benson over Jordan Mason, you know, who could...

actually be valuable. Is Marshawn Lloyd? Probably not. I don't think so. I mean, Will Shipley, but then is it A.J. Dylan? Right. I don't think there's a lot of, sure, is it Kareem Hunt or, you know, they drafted a guy and they've still got Elijah Mitchell there. There aren't a lot. I'm looking at it. Most of the situations, there's really, like I feel like it's, it's just kind of not a factor this year. Yeah, and another way to look at it is, Braylin Allen, is you're, When you're drafting someone like that, you might just be setting your team up for week one. If you stay with us throughout the season and the show, we talk about in season like, hey, these are the players on Friday that I'm going to toss on the back of my bench and let the weekend play out. That's the best way to do it. And then we'll get to a point in the season because we will get these questions every single week. Is it time? We start talking about how we're handling our leagues personally.

Okay, it's weak, whatever. Eight, I don't know. My team's looking really good for the playoffs. And at this point, I'm looking to shape my team with some safety. I want that safety on the team. I'm not looking for an additional ceiling player at this time. So, you know, you got to stick with the show. It's not a, yeah, there is absolutely no. white, black, binary decision for dance. You know, Jason says it every year. We say it every year. You don't win your league at the draft. Your selection of the backup, it's really going to get hard because if you have other injuries on your team, you cannot afford to Ross or somebody that you're just waiting for somebody to get hurt. But I just looked at every team. There are very few. That's what I'm saying. Tyler Algier would be a Bejon injury. But Bejon being so young.

built for a workhorse duty. You just don't presume injury there as easy as you do with like a, like a Sequin who's older coming off and, you know, a crazy workload. And some of the other backs that you might want that don't profile to be the RB1 necessarily are not quite in that category of pure backup undrafted, you know, the Jalen Warren, Caleb Johnson situation, both will get drafted, right? And there's a lot of those. Echler with Brian Robinson Jr., but Echler won't go the same place that a, you know, a pure backup like Alger would go. So don't over-prioritize it. Yeah. I think that's the biggest thing. But Garendo, I would grab Garenda. All right, let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league. It's a little funny that I'm saying grab Grendo because of all the teams that have surprised us with different backups over the years where players get hurt. Yes. And that's what I mean. Are one of them. We assume it's Grendo right now. By the time week one hits.

That might not be true. All right, a little bit of news for you. Doc Prescott says he is fully healthy and will be a full participant at the starting training camp, start of training camp, which is great. He, man, have you seen him talking about George? Yeah. He's loving him some George Pickens right now. Yeah, we all love Georgia this time of year, man. This is George's time. But I think he's got great potential with Dak. Tristan Worf's, Buccaneers all pro left tackle, likely going to miss the first couple of games of the regular season. That is not something you want to hear when it comes to protecting Mr. Baker-Mayfield or the runners there, Bucky Irving, trying to get off to a hot start. He had surgery. Tristan Wurst did on his right knee on Tuesday. So pay attention to those lines. They will get them back, though. This one.

It's hard to buy it, but I'll report it. Zach Jackson believes Jerome Ford is, quote, the starter for now. We'll still play and probably start early in the season. Cleveland Brown's Jerome Ford, the team that just spent a second round pick on Quinchon Judkins. And barely, barely brought Jerome Ford back to this roster. They had him take a price cut. They said, hey, you want to come back? We don't want to pay you what you're. And he said yes because no one else will pay him. Right, exactly. So I don't know. This is the time of year where you're always going to be like, the rookie's going to have to prove it. And then they prove it. Judkins was the one that we said wasn't going to have to prove it. And then this report came out the next day. It's annoying. It is something to pay attention to, though. We'll see if that drumbeat gets louder. Jerome Ford, when he's the starter, he has been.

quite fantasy relevant. Yeah, it matters, and especially like for the Judkins ranking. Like I personally, after this report, I did not change my, like I have Judkins as the week one starter. And if this continues up, you know, through training camp into preseason, and it really seems like that, obviously I will adjust those rankings. I do not take this kind of guesswork report as, you know, this isn't coming from the head coach. saying Jerome Ford's our dude. Yeah, we're going to learn all these situations with the rookies are going to be told. You know, we'll get a lot more information when you see who's running with the first team throughout camp and where the trust levels are and what the coaches say. And this is just stage one speculation. But, you know, they're all going to have to prove themselves. Henderson, Judkins, everyone but Gentie. Right. Oh, he's good. He proved it. Yeah, he did that in college. Yeah. All right. We are going to. I would throw in this real quick. There's Joe Mixon.

news i think brooks just dropped this in for us that there's reports that he should be ready for training camp but he is dealing with foot ankle issues and someone who yeah he was in a walking boot a couple weeks ago i said he had ankle issues last year and you know some of the late season decline is being called upon you're like hey remember he had an ankle issue so for it to already or still be bothering him you got we got to keep an eye on it All right, we are going to take a quick break and we're going to jump into our AFC East breakdown. Let's get divisional. All right, this is our third episode, this time breaking down the AFC East. We're looking at those big offseason changes to the rosters, players, rookies, coaches, looking at the offenses, our expectations and how they could function. The big questions around these four teams within the AFC East.

and how they're going to impact your fantasy football team. And then we'll weigh in with our, you know, order of how we think the division is going to finish. Last year, like it has for, I believe, five straight years. Yep. Buffalo wins it. 13 and 4 last year, a runaway division winner. And they've won the AFCs five straight years. Like I said, it's been a... a really good run. I mean, since 2019, they made the playoffs in 2019, and then they won five straight divisions. And so you've got six years in the playoffs and six years of falling short, coming up short. So that's been kind of hanging over the bills now for a couple of years, getting through the AFC. Can this be the year that they get, you know, all the way into the Super Bowl? I mean, every year it's, it's kind of.

You look at them and you look at their roster and you say this is certainly, they're one of the favorites. That's kind of where they've been. 13 and 40 year. They had a projected win total last year of 10 and a half. It's up to 11 and a half this year. Number two in points per game. I think last year one of the big storylines was, hey, what does Josh Allen do without Stefan Diggs? And the answer is win the MVP. Oh, excellent. So big questions around Buffalo have to do with fantasy players discerning value beyond Josh Allen. To me. Yes. Because Josh Allen, he's locked and loaded as a, you know, you take him high in drafts if you want to. You know what you're getting with Josh Allen. But beyond that, the past catchers, you literally don't know what you're getting because you've got players like Dalton Kincaid that are disappointed. And a whole hodgepodge of wide receivers. Khalil Shakir, yes, it was kind of a breakout, but it wasn't a hugely impactful fantasy breakout. And Keon Coleman, rookie wide receiver.

A lot of expectations gets banged up, has a disappointing rookie year. They add Joshua Palmer and then Dalton Kincaid's story has been nothing but fantasy disappointment this far. Yeah, I mean, there's not a lot to love from a great, isn't it weird? Great offense. I think it shows how good Josh Allen is that he's got this hodgepodge of, you know, skill position guys. And he still has two first round pass catchers. Well, I'm just saying. quality talent. They're trying. They're trying to, you know, they took Keon Coleman in the first. That doesn't make Keon Coleman a really good player. He's the question mark on the bills. He's the guy that's like, can he step up and become someone great or not? And I think most people after that rookie season were not bullish on Keon Coleman saying like, oh, he's going to be, he's going to be absolutely elite. 29 or 29 receptions.

That's not a lot. That was it. Yeah, that was it. And, I mean, he had big plays for the team. And then you had the news that he chipped a bone in his wrist in week nine, which is going to be, you know, food for the excuse makers. But it is a little strange that you have like the best three teams, I think, in the AFC, Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City. They all have. Yeah. Like a hodgepodge of past catchers. It's no longer the Travis Kelsey and Tyree Kill dominating on the best offense. Or digs or, you know, or even Mark Andrews. They've figured out how to piece together once you're paying for your quarterback, just a room of people that's acceptable for your great quarterback. But for fantasy purposes, that's not great. And furthermore, I think for fantasy purposes, I worry about this offense.

because of how much they want to run the ball, succeed running the ball, win running the ball. You look at Josh Allen over the last several years, and yeah, he was great last year. It's fantastic. But he wasn't the quarterback one or two last year for the first time and forever. He was the quarterback four, and he didn't throw for well over 4,000 yards like he was every year. He threw for 3,700 yards. And it's like, If the team is really good, which they project to be good, they've got the fifth easiest strength of schedule projected coming into this year, I think it's going to be more of the same, where you're not really finding super fantasy gold on this roster outside of Josh Allen being a top five quarterback. And hopefully you get a ton of rushing touchdowns from whichever running back you've decided to invest in. Which isn't, I mean, the James Cook discussion is one to be had. Passing percentage last year, they're 29th.

in the in the NFL in 2022 they ran it 43% of the time 2023 they ran it 52% of the time last year right at so that lowers your guaranteed passing game production that you were getting week to week he's not that he's not going to have games where it's it's you know outrageous and wonderful that happens but it's not as guaranteed when you pass at that level. It's funny because right now, Josh Allen is still being drafted average draft position as the number one quarterback. And I'm not sure he should be. I mean, obviously Lamar Jackson smoked him last year. I mean, I don't know. He's my number one. He is not my number one. But I mean, this isn't an anti. I'm going to double check it. What was he through week 17? Because he didn't play the final week of the year.

Yeah, that's correct. He played the one snap, remember, because he wanted to keep the games streak in a row so it messes up his fantasy finish. Because I think it was on a points per game basis, he was pretty, he had a couple of those dead games that they didn't need him. Baltimore, Miami on the roads, single digit performances. But, you know, plenty of number one overalls. And, you know, the number that stands out to you is the total passing yardage on the season. He was a 45, 44, 42, 43, and it's 37 last year. So, 3,700. Points per game, Weeks 1 through 17, and this is a six-point passing touchdown. He was at 26.8, it was QB3. Joe Burrow was 27.7 for QB2. And Lamar 30 points. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, yeah. Lamar had an outlier year, though. Lamar did have an outlier year, but you would expect Lamar right now to throw for more yards and...

run for more yards. So, I mean, that's just, when you're looking at the value in a draft and you're deciding whether to take these big expensive quarterbacks, Eileen Lamar over Josh Allen right now, with how the bills as a team look like they're set up to win. So then when you're looking at the pass catchers, do you have a pick for a guy who could actually step? Like, Shakir got the bag. Coleman is the second year. I mean, I would still take my shot on Coleman and hope. Coleman over Kincaid. Yeah, personally. I think, you know, I hopefully. Shakir's back came after a wide receiver 39 season. Right. And he was. With a handful of weeks that you cared. He was very good for this team. Right. And he was the wide receiver 39. I think your only hope for a fantasy difference maker is that Coleman develops into something.

special touchdowns. Yeah, I'm with you. 10, 11, 12 touchdowns. Completely agree with that. I think that Coleman is the shot to take, and you're also going to, that shot's going to come in the 11th, 12th round of fantasy drafts. It's not going to come in this seventh round or a sixth round, where Shakir might represent, like, the best target chair. I think I'm with that. I mean, I do think Dalton Kincaid is sitting there as a bounceback candidate, personally. A post-type sleeper? Yeah, I mean, he's going to be free. He's going to be somebody that you can take a shot at. It was not kind of bad, though. It was real, real bad. It was pretty useless bad kind of situation for Kincaid. I mean, Titans are usually, you're talking, you're going to catch 70% of the balls. You're going to catch 75% of your passes. You know, the way that you're utilized, it's a lot of easy stuff. Now, there was more downfield stuff with Donald and Concade, but he caught 58% of his passes.

and he didn't do much with it's not like oh well because he was catching 58% of his pass he's getting 14 yards per he's at 10 yards per reception he was terrible and i hope he was injured because there wasn't there something yeah there was a report there was something that he was injured and but i'm just hoping it's real and not just the excuse he missed three games with the knee but it yeah there was because something there's a story floating watching him last year it was just so clear he wasn't it And it was clear they were trying to, they were trying to make Dalton Cicade happen, though. Like they kept having these designs. It's funny because it feels like Pitts. Sure. It feels like Pitt because they kept, I mean, Kyle Pitts, lots of downfield rounds, try to connect to him on those stuff. But when those don't hit, you have a horrible week. But the, but at least you have a roster of past catchers where you have the opportunity to be maybe the best one. Yeah. Like he could legitimately lead the team in targets. Yeah, you, you have that chance here. You don't have digs.

And Shakir's not that intimidating. Coleman, 29 catches last year. So that's a possibility. Looking at James Cook, the big storyline for him this offseason has been touchdown regression. He had 300% times his financial regression. Well, so, yeah, he's trying to get financial progression, but he hasn't got it. Yeah, but 16 rushing touchdowns. I'd like this to return to the mean, please. So, so let's be intellectually consistent here. We know how much they want to run the football. That's why you're being discouraged about certain aspects of the passing game. That is all directly translating into the value of James Cook and Ray Davis and whomever they want to get involved in the offense, Ty Johnson. What you just said is where the pessimism comes in is that they have three running backs that are all three legitimately involved. Not like just a sprinkling in a smidge. You know, this is James Cook was the running back eight.