NFC South + Kerryon Kingdom, AJ Injury

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Hey, Foot Clan, we got a great show prepared for you today. Jason can barely contain himself. He wants to talk, carry on. But before we get this thing started, a couple quick reminders. Number one, you got to check out the Ultimate Draft Kit at Ultimate DraftKit.com. We just made a huge update to the app version. UDKK users can now draft players, star and mark players, and choose whether or not to display drafted players in the app. This is a huge upgrade. We listen to your request.

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I don't need to time anything right today. Just here to bask in the glory. Welcome into the show. I pointed at Jason. I said, of all the days that you get to open the show, do the yell, why not today? The day you're wearing a royal robe, a crown upon your head. Look, I love that, I believe it was this morning, you mocked our good friend. Sorry, Sir Jason.

Our good friend of the show and host of our DFS show, Jake Seeley. Oh, you noticed that, did you? We're taking a preseason victory lap, which is pretty much the dumbest thing you can do. But I am... What are you talking about? It's the time for it, man. This is the best. Well, it is the only time you can do a preseason victory lap. You are right there is the preseason. But I'm on it. And I'm lapping Jake Sealy right now. I'm on lap 10. And that's on the basis of you having a crown on your head, a rope behind you. This whole thing?

When I came in this morning, I asked Brooks for one thing. I said, do you have a paper bag? I think Jason may need to breathe into a paper bag to contain himself on today's show. Look, YouTube, you are just lucky that Jason is the back. He is not on the sides. He is positioned very specifically the back because I'm not sure he's wearing pants. That's exactly. I can't confirm or deny. If always got it, and it says King of the Castle on the back of the rope.

So if you are, if you're joining us for the first time, have we even said what happened? Maybe you don't know that Jason is the greatest carry on Johnson truth are in the land. And what's incredible is last week we said, I said there were rumors. Right. Deo Riddick could actually get cut. It was a bit of a surprise, I think, to you guys, and he was cut. It definitely was not a.

a shock to me because I had read those reports a while ago. About a month ago, I tweeted like, hey, let's get this thing to happen. Some of the beat reporters were talking about how much money they could save by cutting them. They still like Zach Zinner. They brought C.J. Anderson, so they had the room to spare. But I mean, this is a huge deal because Kerry on Johnson is not going to be one of those 265 carrybacks. That's not what they brought him in for. That's not the system that they want him to be in. But he can be.

one of those Alvin-Kamara-type backs that can get 215, 220 carries, and add in 80 targets. Yeah, a lot. If you are utilized in that way, which obviously the lions, I mean, look over the last five years, I believe Theoretic is the leader. If not, he's like number two in total targets at a running back position. And now that is the role that Carry on Johnson is going to.

Phil, that's not a Zach Zinner specialty. It's not a C.J. Anderson specialty. So now you have a guy who is your first and second downback, who is definitely receiving back to a team and a quarterback that knows how to utilize that space. And he is great. But I say all that. And I'm a little upset. I'm a little upset at this news because I was getting Carry on Johnson everywhere. His fourth round ADP was stupid as it was.

every third round or in the fourth round I would grab Caryon Johnson and now oh yeah good luck with that now I don't now I just don't get him in all my leagues now it's like people are putting him really high in their rankings as they should now he's going to skyrocket so I want to get everybody's take on this today is the final divisional show we have the NF South on the show today you can follow the podcast the fantasy footballers on Twitter at the FF ballers and

Look, it's go time now. I mean, news is breaking by the minute. I guarantee, I mean, we're recording the show Monday for the Tuesday episode, and we'll probably be behind on some of the news that comes out today, but there's so much to cover. I want to know what, Mike, I want to know what your expectations are for Carry On. I've done a lot of thinking about this. My knee-jerk reaction, Jason, the second this news happened, I jumped in, and my impulse was to make Carri-on Johnson my running back 11.

uh that's where that's where i went in and i'm just going to appropriate theoretic and the more i thought about this thing where i ended up was basically here and you can you can counterpoint me you can receive this if it's possible with the crown upon your head but i think a couple things i have him at 16 and i think it's actually borderline impossible for him to be a top 10 back this year that's the honest truth after what i here's how i feel about the situation is that um

Obviously, what you said is 100% right. He will be the past catching back. We know that being the past catching back does not guarantee fantasy success for you. Otherwise, Jalen Richard and Nostin Eckler and T.J. Yeldin, these are all guys with over 60 receptions last year that aren't upper echelon. Guys, it's going to come down to how much work he gets in the running game and scoring opportunities. Here's the problem that I have with projecting Carry-on Johnson too high and why I think he will be an ADP trap. Is that...

Over the last couple of years, last year there were three running backs in the top 10 that were on teams that were worse than 500. The year before, there were only two. And so, first of all, you're up against it if you're on a team. This is not going to be a winning football team at the running back position. You already know one of those this year will be Saquan. And then you're talking, is it Mixing? Is it Lev Bell? Who are the other guys? Is Kerry on going to beat those guys? Last year, the Lions were 24th and yards per game, 25th and points per game.

And this is not a team that I think I project to be a winning football team. They play in a division with the Vikings twice and the Bears defense two different times. And so, you know, we talk about David Johnson as that kind of use case of, okay, you're on a bad team and you did really well, right? Well, for David Johnson to battle his way to number 10 last year, he had 258 carries and 50 receptions. I don't believe, and this is on the basis of evidence, that they'll give carry on the work that you want.

because Matt Patricia has already set forth a precedent and displayed evidence of him looking through a different lens than we are. Carry on is hyper talented, but C.J. Anderson and Zach Zinner, they both graded out the same as Carry on in the running game last year. And there's just this, there's also the risk factor of injury that Carry On struggle with last year. So I think it's actually really, really going to be impossible for him to be a top 10 guy.

I settled at 16. If that's the case, then we have to waterbed a top 12. I'm totally comfortable water betting at top 12. That's done, dear. Yeah, that's fine. Waterbed. That's nothing to do with Kerry on Johnson not being one of the most talented guys. If you told me Carrie on Johnson was on the Los Angeles Chargers, I think he would have a different opportunity, but I only have him for four rushing touchdowns on the year. That's the honest truth. Sure, that's...

Fine. You can have him down for that. When you say that we've seen the evidence already that he's not going to get the workload he needs, you're just wrong. Because last year, the first two weeks. That's not what I said. I said I've seen the evidence of Matt Patricia looking through a different lens and giving an extra work to a guy that was the least efficient running back in football last year. Sure. Because he wanted to give him the work.

The first two weeks last year, Carryon Johnson wasn't the starter, wasn't really involved much. It was all with Garrett Blunt. He started taking over week three, played through week 10, then he was injured and out from 11 on. From week three through 10, he was already. That was with last year's terrible lions, injured Matthew Stafford, trading away Golden Tate, you know, all the hullabaloo still with Matt Patricia. He was on a 16-game pace of 210 carries and 48 receptions, not targets, receptions,

With Theoretic there, 1,162 yards on the ground, 340, so almost 1,500 combined yards. And here's the thing. We all know, and if you don't know, now you know, that the fantasy points per reception are so, they're nearly triple, depending on your league format.

than a rushing attempt. So if you're talking about a guy who can be a 60-70 reception back, that's going to be hard to not be in the top 15 or even the top 10. So I think he's firmly in the top 12. Obviously you don't. We've made a water bet. And the best part about fantasy football is we're going to get to figure it out. But I love hearing your shade. And I hope shade comes because let's keep his ADP low.

Yeah, I think it'll be interesting. Mike, where do you weigh in on carry-on's projection? How did you adjust him? Where's he out in your rankings? So I'm far more on the side with Jason. He moved up to number 12 for me, so I do have him in that range. And just to speak a little bit more to the shift, yes, at the beginning, don't buy into the beginning of the season what happened, where it was really frustrating that Matt Patricia was putting LaGarrett Blunt out there.

Once Carillon put a full stranglehold on the starting job, and LaGarad Blunt was getting three carries, five, six, seven. And then his end of season numbers look good because once Carillon Johnson left the season with an injury, then they went back to LaGarrett Blunt being the primary ball carrier. And we do have very, very small sample. It's only two games. But if you look at the split...

where Theoretic was out, but Caryon Johnson was in, he went up literally two full targets a game, up to five and a half. I mean, he, which is, by the way, that's 88 targets. So that puts very realistic for Caryon Johnson to hit that 60 plus reception area. If he's a 200 carry guy, a 60 plus reception guy, then Caryon Johnson is going to be.

A stud. Do you believe that Matt Patricia, both Zach Zinner and C.G. Anderson are leaps and bounds ahead of what Ligarrett Blunt was from an efficiency standpoint. They brought in C.G. Anderson for a purpose. I'm concerned that C.J. will get the goal line work. Zach Zinner will get the goal line work. And you won't see enough in the running game to get in that top 10. But 70 reception. If you told me he's going to be over 70.

Changes the equation a little bit. Yeah, maybe. Maybe they give some goal line work to C.J. Anderson or maybe C.J. Anderson was good last year because everybody's good at the running back position for the Rams. And they're going to find out very quickly that there is a reason that C.J. Anderson was cut from what was cut from multiple teams. Oh, that's right. He signed. Who did he sign with the Niners? No, Oakland.