NFC South + Kerryon Kingdom, AJ Injury

They got up down around the goal line, and they could not run the ball in. I mean, Matt Ryan had three rushing touchdowns, which is more than his last five seasons combined because he had zero in the previous five seasons. They're going to use Devante Freeman. I have no fear over his utilization, just over his injury. And bad players get play. I mean, Charkandric West gets play. DeVante Booker gets play. Edo Smith was not efficient, but Dan Quinn was the one that came out and said he's going to get a significant increase in offensive looks.

in February when Kevin Coleman left. So it will be interesting. I love him as a two. I would love Freeman as a two because it's going to be a good offense. It's going to be an offense that can move the football. So their opportunities will be there. And maybe you're right. Maybe a couple shots at Edo and Olison failing to get in the end zone is all it's going to take for Freeman to.

to reclaim his crown. And I do love this division because when you play, all the teams of this division, usually they're high scoring. You know, some division games are low scoring defensive battles. This division is usually just a, let's see who can get to 50 points quicker. I love that. But a weird scheduling quirk, the Falcons don't play in the NFC South until week 10. So you're not getting that division. What? You know, and then they play five in a row. Schedulers, what are you doing? Giving us content. Yeah.

Thank you, NFL. Jason, are you still an anti every other year, Matt Ryan guy? I am somewhat, yes, you would call me an anti every other year man Ryan guy. I have him down in my rankings versus where he finished last year. The reason you're saying in my every other year, Matt Ryan guy is because, of course, that's what Matt Ryan has done for his.

Career, which I don't think is in any way prescriptive of future. He doesn't look out on the calendar and go, dang it. It's, oh, it's this year. Yeah, I mean, these are his fantasy finishes over the last few years. Second, great, last year, 15th, second, 19th, 7th, 15th, 7th. So it's been a yo-yo, and that's not prescriptive, but it is, it does point out that when, you know, I've got him down around 15.

That's very in the realm of his possible outcomes. Sure. 50% of his years, regardless of the back and forth nature, he finishes around there, and it's all based on one thing and one thing alone. Touchdowns. Okay, he's always, he's part of a great offense. He's going to have a ton of yards. He's going to have a great completion percentage. He's got great weapons this year. So there's a lot to love here, but it's just touchdowns. And he was very, very high.

Eight touchdowns more than his previous four-year average as last year, plus those rushing touchdowns I brought up. I see that reverting when their defense was completely trashed last year. They didn't have the ability to run the ball into the end zone last year. I think some of those touchdowns come away. I don't love Matt Ryan as far as finishing as the top three fantasy option this year like he did last year.

Now, I'm not sure where he's being drafted. Week to week, ceiling is great. In six-point leagues from weeks two through ten last year, he averaged the exact same fantasy points as Patrick Mahomes. Had seven QB1 performances during that span. So the ceiling for Matt Ryan, if you're taking the shot on him, at least that ceiling is being the best quarterback.

on any given week, which is not something a lot of people can do. You spend a seventh round pick on him. I don't know if I really, I don't think he'll be on any of my teams just because I like guys that are later. Yeah, the draft price is where I'm off of Matt Ryan. I still think he's going to be one of the better quarterbacks. I think he is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. But when the seventh round, when, you know, like behind him.

You've got Carson Wentz behind him, Kyler Murray behind him. Late late, you've got Cam Newton and Jared golf. I feel like I just have the Russell Wilson line. Either you're an elite quarterback. You're Mahomes, Watson, Andrew Luck Rogers, or I'm going to wait until someone has taken Russell Wilson. And now I need to start getting in on the quarterback run. Talk about Calvin Ridley. He slid up in drafts to a place that I'm not extremely comfortable with him.

I think he's a very talented player, but he's on that list of the Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett group where, look, very efficient touchdown score last season. Overperformed. From an efficiency standpoint. Yeah. Yeah, but obviously can give you a big play, never going to be the number one guy there. How comfortable are you with his, what is he in the fifth round? Where's Calvin Ridley's current 80P? Yeah, 5.06 on calculator. Yeah, I just, I find myself, there's not.

There's no way that I'm going to take them there. There's no way because, look, last year as a rookie had 92 targets. That's a lot. So maybe that volume can squeak up a little bit, but it's hard to do that when you threw the ball as much as they did last year and you got Julio Jones there. So barring a Julio Jones injury, which is realistic, but barring that, I don't think he can squeeze up to become a 125 target guy. So now you look at last year, he was a wide receiver too, but that was on the back of double digit touchdowns. I just talked about the fact that.

Matt Ryan was well over his usual average when it comes to touchdowns and what I expect him to do. And Calvin Ridley's first year. Is that a coincidence? I do want to bring up. Last year was, from what I can see, the highest touchdown numbers at the quarterback position and passing touchdown numbers that the NFL's had in a while. So like, yes, the numbers were way up. When you have a guy with a long career arc, it's hard for me to look at.

historical average alone. Not that you are. I'm only looking at his previous 40 years because I think that's fair. Yeah, if you look at Matt Ryan's career, his, obviously the first half of his career, he wasn't a big touchdown thrower. I'm basically talking about since he's broken out as more of an elite fantasy option where he averages 28 passing touchdowns a season. Okay. All right. Fair enough. Anybody else you want to touch? Austin Hooper?

Yeah. I mean, he was the Titan 6, guys. There are some people really excited about him. I cannot get myself excited about Austin Hooper. And some of the beat reporters, they say he's really shining, but I don't know, man. He's clearly not, at best, he is the third target on the team for tight end. There's just higher upside picks. I would just, I mean, I guess. At best, you said he's what? The third target on the team? At best, he's fourth.

No, I'm... Maximum. Okay, so who you're putting Sunu or... Yeah, I would put... Obviously, Ridley, Julio, or ahead of him. Yeah, and Freeman. Probably if he stays healthy. Freeman, not probably, for sure. I mean, he's been, it's just, it was his third year in the NFL, so he still has room to grow, but three touchdowns, three touchdowns, four...

touchdowns. Last year when he was the tight end, what, tight end six, that was the lowest point total for a tight end six in a very, very long time. Tightens have been so incredibly disappointing the past couple of seasons. It correlates highly with the transition to passing to running backs far more frequently. But last year, Austin Hooper, 22% of his yards were in two games. Like, he had that couple little stretch.

where it was awesome. You're like, yeah, I streamed Austin Hooper back to back and it paid off. And then you were very, very disappointed for every other game. All right. We need to talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bruce Ariens comes in. Bruce Ariens, by all intensive purposes, is the yogi bearer of the NFL at this point. His quotes are ridiculous. I had one. Did you guys see this quote about the team pooping their pants? I mean, oh, yeah, let's go. Sounds electric. It's right up our alley here.

preparing my ears. Yeah, I'll have to find it, but it was essentially... Let down. We need the horn on that one. Oh, boom. I figured you heard it. No. I wanted to hear it. You teased it. Give me two seconds. Shut down the show so I can Google Bruce Ariens pooping. I believe he said that they crap their pants and pads. Once they put the pads on, they crap their pants. I love Bruce Ariens so much. Yes, some bucks crapped their pants today in pads. It's a little raggedy.

The noise level went up and some guys messed their pants but will grade the film. I'm just saying the quotes are coming from Bruce Arians. We're going to enjoy them. They already got some pooped in their big boy pants in practice. And the offense will also enjoy Bruce Erians. They were already the number one passing yards per game offense last season. Bruce Ariens wants to throw the ball down the field. James Winston doesn't always want to throw to his own teammates or near them.

Don't tell him what to do. Well, I'm not. That's the problem. I think you should tell him what to do because lately people have not been telling him and he's. Well, to be fair, I mean, James, once he came back from his, what was that like the third or fourth benching? Yeah. The third or fourth benching. That's a good sentence. Good start. He, uh, he actually was on his best, the best stretch of his on his best behavior. Yeah. That's what I felt like.

Oh, you're going to be a little bit more conservative here, not throw the interceptions. But you're right. His touchdown interception ratio was the best of his career. It was actually NFL good for the second half of the year. You do have to keep in mind how young he still is. I think he has room to get better. But he's not great. Like we, you know, we took him out as a breakout. And we took him out of the breakout category because it's.

It's hard to at this point just say, James Winston's going to get everything together because of Bruce Ariens. One of the things I've tried to caution myself on, because I am a big believer in Bruce Ariens being great for fantasy. Pace of play when he was with the Cardinals, he was always near the top. So you get this offensive guy coming to a team with great weapons and you just want to put everyone's arrow up. Here's the problem.

They were already a great offense last year. You don't realize that, but in all passing metrics, across the board, they're pretty much top three as a team. Because you had the split between Fitzpatrick and James Winston, you don't look at how, you know, neither one of them finished great for fantasy because they split with each other. But now James has it. Maybe he will be a top end option. I'm not saying that couldn't happen. I still think he could break out. It's just hard for me to see it happening where.

where I find the real value, like, not just the news and the anecdote, is the vacated targets. 38% of targets gone. You have Adam Humphreys and Deshaun Jackson that have left a giant void that will be filled by some amalgamation of players. And I think Chris Godwin is the guy that steps into that role. Now that he's moving into the slot role that Bruce Ariens always gets the most out of, there's...

You know, been plenty of hype videos in camp already. He's scoring touchdowns. He's, he's, he's scoring in camp. He is. Are you serious? Oh, I'm impressed. Look, Evans, Evans was targeted more in the red zone than anybody in football last year, pretty much. He had eight touchdowns. Look, the targets in Tampa, they don't, they come with the built-in James Winston uncertainty with all of them. This whole offense, every, every narrative is perfect if James Winston's a good quarterback. Right. And every narrative goes out the window if he's not.

O.J. Howard should be dominant this season. Talk about 38% vacated targets. Howard wasn't on the field for all of last year. He's a force. He should dominate this season if the offense can do what they've done. He's a true breakout candidate, but you're right. It still requires James Watson to be a good quarterback. Chris Godwin had a game at the end of the season where he caught one of 10 targets from James Winston. Do we think that Chris Godwin sucks? Absolutely not. Okay. So then that is a...

possible outcome week to week that doesn't exist with a player like Drew Breeze at quarterback. So maybe the team will air it out and you're going to blow things up, but you're also, you've got the other end of the spectrum of James Winston, unfortunately, which is unpredictability, and it's why he's not in our breakout guarantee section of the UDK, but the opportunities there for Godwin to step up and change his fantasy baseline as a...

a fantasy starter. Yes. O.J. Howard, breakout candidate. Howard's a guy that could be a top three tied in that is not outside the realm of his outcomes. Agreed. I mean, last year, Chris Godwin was the wide receiver 25 in fantasy scoring and half point systems. Right now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 20. I think he finishes.

I 100% think he finished is better than he did last year. He only had seven touchdowns last year. It's not like it was on the back of like Calvin Ridley with 10. So I think he's got a repeatable number there. And I think his target volume is going to go massively up. I think the role is good for him, the vacated targets. But he is being drafted there. He's being drafted as the wide receiver 20, which is a better finish than he had last year. So it's just a matter of how high do you think he can go? I see his ceiling as like wide receiver 15.