Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Early QB Rankings, News & Notes, Mailbag

playing him and you have less flexibility to move where we say this gap between a Cam Newton and on our list maybe a Brady or an Eli Manning or a Romo isn't that big. But you spend a third rounder on Cam Newton. You're playing him in the bad matchups because you're not going to go sign another guy and stream him ahead of your draft pick. It's a mental thing. Yeah, I was going to say mentally, I think you could even take it on the same.

player. Like, it's a mental problem. If you took Tony Romo in the seventh because you thought it was a good deal, you're, you know, versus you just wait and it just so happens where Tony Romo ends up dropping to the, you know, to the 10th to the 11th. And then you grab them there. It's the same guy, but you'd be much more fine dropping them. And that's got to be. Or even just benching him. Right. Exactly. No, your point is right. And that's the only benefit of an Aaron Rogers is.

It's a set and forget. It's very nice to do that if you have the guy. But if you waste the pick or the value, you know, it might be nice to play Aaron Rogers every week, but it's not nice having to sign Kerwin Williams off of free agency. You're running back two positions. So let's get to the number three guy. Yeah, that's great analysis from you too. I appreciate the very clear take by Mike because he's taking this approach. This isn't just an invention.

of the show right now. Mike's taking that approach to fantasy football over the last few years. And I will say I was of the, I was in on the, hey, this is years ago, but I was that quarterback guy who, like the quarterback scores the most points. You have to have a great quarterback. It's just the difference of quarterback scoring, like we talked about on Tuesday, I believe, was the difference between the number 12 and the number five guy.

is nothing compared to the running back 12 and the running back 5. And you only play one quarterback. So let's say that this strategy is a little bit different when you're talking about two quarterback leagues. You're going to want to grab a Rogers or something like early because you have to play two, but you only have to play one. It's also slightly different in leagues that award six points per touchdown.

for quarterback position. You adjust your, but not philosophically. And to your point about streaming in general, the best guys to stream are the guys that have the most opportunity to perform on a week-to-week basis. If you're streaming a position where a guy touches the ball like tight-in very infrequently, streaming them accurately is difficult. At the quarterback position, you can project a Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to throw the ball 35, 40 times in this game against this team. Your floor.

on streaming is much higher. And if you've built a strong foundation, all you need from your quarterback is 200 to 250 yards with two touchdowns. Like that's what you need for a winning week if you build your team with the foundation of a strong running back one and a strong wide receiver one. And I've been less, I haven't put that into practice.

that philosophy every single year. There have been opportunities in our leagues to trade for guys at different value points. And so I've had a guy, like Breeze was my starter last year for most of the year. And I like that. I like the consistency of that. But I think it's a very, I think it's good we're talking philosophically about the position because we're sitting here. It's March 19th. Our rankings are going to be adjusted. They're going to change. Guys are going to get signed. I'm locked in, man. You're locked.

I hope when we put the rankings up, everybody has got their update date, and you're sitting there March 19, 2015. Guys aren't even on the same team anymore. We've got Brian Hoyer as your starter. So our consensus number three here is somebody that... Consensus number three, Jason and I have them number three on our list. Mike has them number four.

Well, there's a lot of analysts that I respect, that I really like, that have this guy much lower. And even for me in my own brain head, I'm not excited about the pick, but I just put the numbers together. I don't see how it doesn't turn out well for him, which is... Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson. Second baseman for the Texas Rangers. What? I said he's drafted by the Rangers. You're right.

You guys don't know anything about baseball. Truth. And that's one of the reasons why this show's good. Russell Wilson, I have him projected for a bump up in passing yardage. They're going to pay him this offseason, and they got him a weapon that can be categorized as something in the top, you know, a wide receiving...

That's really nice. It'll be the first time he's at a top 50 anything. He hasn't had a tool like Jimmy Graham. So I haven't projected at the 3,800 yard mark for passing yards, which would be a career high, and 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions. But where does he make his money on the ground? He had, I believe, how many yards last year?

Somewhere, I think he was in the 700s. 850. 850. So I have him at 720 this year. Marcheon Lynch is back, but they're changing the identity of that offense over time. Yeah, to give a good example of what we're talking about, almost every single statistic that you read out, I have him considerably lower on. 36.50 yards, only 26 touchdowns, 650 on the ground, and he's still far and away my number three.

So there's that breathing room there where those yards on the ground and touchdowns on the ground just are so valuable. And again, this is very exclusive to standard scoring. You know, the six points for running touchdowns versus four in the air. But, you know, they're bringing in that weapon of Jimmy Graham and seeing how they ran the Super Bowl. I think that you've got to expect them to open it up a little bit more this year.

certainly going to get more touchdowns through the air. Now, I was similar with Jason where Russell Wilson was not necessarily high on my list, but just after I put in the stats, and I think I was conservative with him where I gave him a slight boost in the passing yardage, but I dropped his rushing yards considerably because I don't see him hitting that 850 mark, and he still came up as my...

as my number four guy. Now, so just a quick note for, let's say if we have listeners who are newer to fantasy football, why is a running quarterback gain so much value? It's because in standard scoring, 10 yards on the ground is a point. 25 in the air is a point. So you could throw for 100 yards and get four points, or you could run for 40.

and get four points, and he frequently does that. So that's where the point difference is made up so greatly, where throwing for such a high amount of yardage, and you just have, you have one scramble, and that equals 100 yards in the air. Yeah, it's not uncommon for him to have a game where he busts off 100 yards on a team, and that's 10. And he only throws for one touchdown. Yeah, and that's 10 points on yards. What would he have to throw to get 10 points in the air?

I think it, what, 250 to get? Yeah. Yeah. And that's why a guy like Tebow, Tim Tebow, quarterback, future quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles, can be a non-prolific passer passer, but a top five fantasy quarterback the way he was a few years ago because you can make up so much on the ground. And generally, guys like Cam Newton, running quarterbacks, even Colin Kaepernick, they don't put up as many duds overall.

Because your baselines. I mean, there were games last year where Cam Newton had a touchdown or no touchdowns through the air, but still, he's a 15, 16 point finish. So Russell Wilson is our consensus number three. Our consensus number four is... Is Mike's number three? I was actually surprised you guys were as high on him as me. Oh, I love... Yeah, this would be a show. Yeah, this is a guy that we are a little bit higher than...

others on. He finished number seven last year. He was the number eighth off the board in the draft last year. We have him at number four. Maddie Ice. Maddie Ice. Oh, no, I renamed him. Oh, oh. Breaking news. Breaking news. Manila ice. So, Matt Ryan, honestly, I feel like Matt Ryan could be sponsored by the fantasy footballers. Because we are, all three of us are so in on Julio Jones this year.

You know, just by nature of that, Maddie Ice has to, you know, improve on the numbers from last year, especially in the touchdown production. I'm really excited for Matt Ryan. He excites me for bigger blow-up potential, whereas Russell Wilson, I feel like, is just really solid. Two words. Jacob Tammy. Oh. I was really excited. I'm kidding. You let me know. There is some, some.

I mean, they lost Harry Douglas. The health of Julio Jones, if you look at Matt Ryan's games from when he was healthy and when he wasn't healthy, it's an incredible difference. You have a different head coach there now. You have a different offensive coordinator there. So there's some unknown, but there's a lot of comparisons between Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford to me on their dependency on that top level wide receiver that makes them excel. The...

Where the offensive coordinator, we're talking about Kyle Shanahan. In Kyle Shanahan, you're talking about a guy who was there and got Andy Dalton to a top five finish. He got Matt Schaub to a top five finish. He also got Robert Griffin to a top five finish. The guy knows offense, and he's getting a fantastic quarterback in Matt Ryan. Now, granted, everything is tied to the health of Julio Jones.

But last year, Matt Ryan had literally bullfighters playing at his offensive line. The entire line got hurt. He had no – I think he had one starter by the end of the year. And that's – You were talking about that all year. That was his downfall. And you could see it on the field. And that's the only reason I didn't like him last year is because he had no time to throw. He was getting crushed. And –

So I'm expecting a healthier line this year, a stronger line this year. And a new head coach who's defensive-minded. I'm expecting a big increase overall as a team from the Falcons and really expecting Matt Ryan to perform this year. Here's one thing, a couple things I learned about Matt Ryan. One, and I mentioned this last year on the show, he is not.

a good garbage time quarterback. He is an interception throwing garbage time quarterback. And I had him for parts of the year last year when they get, because there are certain guys, Breeze, for example, even Matt Stafford, who when the team gets behind, bad defensive play, you're going to get prolific numbers on offense. But Ryan was the guy who consistently, he'd come out and he'd try to sling it to get back into the game and he'd throw interceptions. And so...

I agree with you. I think a defensive-minded head coach and a change in the way that team performs gives him more opportunities in the red zone to complete passes. And not having Stephen Jackson as the pass-catching-back premier opportunity with Devante Freeman and some other guys they bring in. I think he's going to have a good year. We all do. We all have them very high. Yeah. Kyle Shanahan is my main reason. I mean...

There's a new coaching staff, so that can go both good and bad. But we know what we have in Kyle Shanahan, and that's a great offensive coordinator, in my opinion. So I'm really excited to see what he does. He's got the weapons there and should be able to put up a lot of numbers. Just to remind people, Pierre Garsohn, who was the ex in Kyle Shanahan's offense when he was in Washington. In 2013,

If I count right, he was a top 15 guy. He was either 12 or 13 because NFL.com refuses to number their rankings. I noticed that. That was ridiculous. Terrible. That's why I had to write numbers down the sideline of the center. But Garsohn was a PPR beast. He had over 1,300 yards. And Pierre Garsohn, a hot fantasy tip, Pierre Garsohn is not Julio Jones. No, he's not.

Julio Jones is going to dominate this year. And you didn't mention Josh Gordon. Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Josh Gordon. No, no. He was only in Cleveland for one year. Yeah. And that was last year. But what Shannonhan did do was he kept that offense afloat with Brian Hoyer. I mean, that team was in the playoff hunt until general manager started texting things down to the sideline.