Stat Surprises + Keeper Decisions, Rotten Commissioners - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/23

Foot Clan, we've been digging into the numbers, and today we reveal some stat surprises for 20, 23 things we discovered in our rankings. The Ultimate Draft Kit is coming out very, very soon, under 10 days until it comes out. And we talk about a ton of mailbag questions, some NFL news, and a lot more on today's show. Leave a comment. Don't miss a minute. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Tuesday, May 23rd, the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Mike Wright, Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway. Joined, as always, by the Ducers. Al Borland, Judge Diomati, the Borgogan, hanging out in Deucer's Alley today. Happy to have you with us. Gentlemen. Yes. Nine days left until the ultimate draft kick. Ooh, baby. Which means.

that's not enough time to do the amount of videos we need to do. Oh, yes it is. So I've enlisted Al to... Ooh, AI? Well, Industrial Light and Magic, actually. We're going to go Pixar stuff. Oh, nice. And so these will be the first time our videos are entirely... Now, you get to pick your Pixar character. Those were two different companies, but... That's true. Yeah. You went Lucas and Disney. Oh, I guess Lucas is Disney now. Thank you, Mike. Does Disney own industrial light magic now? Yeah, they do. Okay. They might. Are they crossing over what they are? They definitely might. But you get to pick your character is what I'm saying. So figure it out. Let them know. Probably help to do the videos with ourselves this year and work on that for next year. But nine days left until the ultimate draft kit. Very excited. If you have not picked it up, that means you got nine days left to get it at a pre-order discount.

save some money on it. All of our sleepers, breakouts, bus, values, player projections, we're there. We're at the cusp of the new season. It's going to be a lot of fun. And that's ultimate draft kid.com. But we were in the thick of it this morning. We've got some insights. We've got some insights. We'll share here in the quick question. That's for the kids. The song. Yes. The backyard against. Yeah, you run our TikTok, right? Yeah, I mean, that's, yeah, on there all the time, just risen. Jason. By using that right? Probably not. Not, not right. How you doing, Jay? Doing great. I am excited to do this show. I've never been more ready for it in my life. This is UDK season. We are full of all sorts of fantasy football knowledge and information. I'm ready to spew it. All right, quick question.

What's something that surprised you while statting out every team and every player for the 2023 ultimate draft kit? We've all been through every roster. We've looked at all the coaching changes. We've looked at what happened last year in terms of everything from positional target share, player target share, distribution in the backfields, quarterback play, ebbs and flows that, you know, with passing touchdowns. rushing touchdowns. What's something that at the top of your mind jumped out when you step back for a minute and looked at how you saw the 2023 season statistically? Yeah, one thing that stood out to me that was a little scary. I did not like it. I was like, ooh, that feels bad. It feels wrong. It feels against my beliefs of this player as a talented young strapping running back.

But Kenneth Walker was very low in my initial rankings. I've taken a look and tweaked it slightly, made sure he's where I would draft him. But I have fears of this talented running back. Obviously, you know, we know that. He was hurt and the value of Charbonnet, Zach Charbonnet, the rookie running back they drafted in the second round. Both of those guys took a ding when they went to, you know, play on the same roster together. But when I was statting them out, I've got the Seattle Seahawks actually going up in total rushing attempts this season, despite the acquisition of JSN. But when you look at...

what Kenneth Walker did last year and the injuries around him, the lack of Rashad Penny, when he was able to get the bulk of his carries, how he was as a player, which was not as effective as you think. He wasn't a great on a per play basis running back. What he was was an incredible home run hitter. He ended up just really being effective. for explosive plays. And so when you look at this team that likes to run the ball that has had, you know, a couple backs together that haven't been able to be healthy when they had Rashad Penny and then they drafted Kenneth Walker, I believe that they are going to use Charbonnet a lot. I don't think they spent a second round pick to get a backup. I think they brought in a guy who has a different skill set than Kenneth Walker. And my fears...

are that this specific skill set that Charbonnet has, and the reason why I loved Charbonnet so much leading up into the draft, are the skills that score fantasy points. And so specifically, he's a great pass catching back, of which Kenneth Walker didn't do in college and really didn't do much last year either. So I think Kenneth Walker's not going to catch the ball enough where it's like he's got to score touchdowns then. and he is now the smaller of the two backs in that backfield. I think Charbonnet is a pile pusher, and when they get around the goal line, will it be Walker? I mean, Walker could easily have a great season by just ripping off four or five, 40-yard touchdown runs, and then great, what a great pick. But I have fears when I look at my stats of probabilities that, like, I think he's not going to score as many touchdowns as we want. He's not going to catch the ball enough, and that equals a bad fantasy pick for where he's going.

I know you're on no no I'm not on the complete opposite side I think you've swayed me a little bit you've you've caused me to take a deeper look at that backfield including kind of the initial I guess what we're hearing in the press coming out of rookie the first look at Charbonnet I am I'm a little worried that you're going to be spot on there if you're a if you're a Walker supporter because It's really hard to repeat the big play predictability aspect in fantasy. Like he is a shifty guy. He's going to have his home run plays. But that's a really, really hard thing to predict. It doesn't happen year after year after year for a lot of running backs. So this is one where like, you know, we say on the show, if you're new to the show, it's a common phrase. Like the idea of staying water heading into the season.

That's going to be in play here for Charbonnet and Walker and what they look like at camp because, look, he's still a rookie. So he still has to cross some thresholds in training camp with the coaching staff, the trust factors, all of the things that rookies have to do, right? We've had a lot of rookie running backs that are like we're optimistic about and then they don't have the opportunities we hope for. I can go back. Last off season, there was Zamira White and, you know, those type of players. But not with this draft capital and not with the history of rushing success for this football team. And so we all like Charbonnet. Yeah, he's good. The fact he can catch the football, the fact that, you know, Walker dealt with injuries multiple times, including starting last season, you have put, you know, it's one of those things you don't want to let go up. Like Kenneth Walker in Dynasty leagues. And then.

in terms of the regular season. We are so desperate as fantasy players to find a running back that can be the guy. There aren't very many of them. And he could have been. Yeah. Could have been a contender. When I was looking at the split, I went and I looked back, you know, of. By the way, I have Walker at 10 still. I have them currently at, let's see, 18. I went and I look back because they just did this. The Seahawks just did this. They drafted a running back in the first round when they had an incumbent player who was a seventh round draft pick who looked like he could have been their guy. And they took a first round running back, Rashad Penny. When they had Carson. And they had Chris Carson back then. And everything of history said, Rashad Penny's the first round running back. He's going to come in. And...

be their primary guy. Like, he will steal Chris Carson's lunch money. It's going to happen. It did not happen. And Chris Carson was the guy for multiple years after that, and Rashad Penny kind of became the secondary option. I think that Walker can still be the number one guy. He, for home run hitting, he is fast. I mean, he's much, much faster than the Charbonnet. Now, we have, what, 438? at 2-11. Like, he's a fast running back. So I still believe in him. It does take, you know, a lot off of the top of the excitement for Kenneth Walker because I think even, Andy, you haven't been ranked at 10. Kyle, do we know what's his best ball ADP right now? Kenneth Walker, if you can pull that up for me. I'll look it up. But I feel like in redraft, once the home league start coming around, Kenneth Walker is going to be drafted.

way ahead of where we haven't projected. We also had Kenneth Walker drafted in the second round last year. Yeah. With Rashad Penny. So running back 15 right now, best ball. That's actually not bad at all. Like I said, I don't feel like this is one of those things we have to litigate all the way to conclusion here in the middle of May. It's just one of those things I'm going to pay close attention to because if there's a groundswell for Charbonnet and training camp, believe it. They drafted them in a position. where he can be heavily utilized. It's not how I have it stated yet. Jason chose to go that direction now, but it's a realistic possibility. Yeah, and the opposite is true. Like Mike said, the example from this same team and organization, Rashad Penny played most of his rookie year, and he was on a 17-game pace of only 105 carries during that season while I believe it was like near 300 carry pace for.

Chris Carson. So it certainly could be, hey, Charbonnet, you're a rookie, you're the backup. It's more my fear of touchdown and reception specifically. The funny thing is we get to, we get a new case study every year from Seattle. They provide us the material. Can't wait for them to draft a second round running back next year. No matter how good Charbonnet is. Oh, they're both going to be great, unnecessary. When I looked at, when I stepped back from my rankings, The one thing I wanted to point out is kind of a stat surprise was just really what I think the true high-end potential is for Justin Herbert. I have them leading the NFL in attempts and completions at the end of 2023. And he's the kind of player pocket passer. If he has the boom touchdown year where there's fluctuation with a pocket passer, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, in years past, Matthew Stafford, in Detroit, Matt Ryan.

If you get that kind of boom touchdown total year, I think Justin Herbert is going to be the steal at the quarterback position in the draft. I mean, we've talked a lot about how long do you wait for quarterbacks? Are you too afraid to do it if you don't get one of the top guys? Look, this is a quarterback that already had a 5,000 yard 38 touchdown season in 2021. Everything this off season, I mean, think about what he went through last year. Injured Mike Williams, injured, Keenan Allen, no Jalen, injured himself. I was going to bring up the ribs. And then you had an offensive coordinator that was canned at the end of the season. Now you have Kellan Moore's arrival. You have the return of Jalen Guyton, you have Johnston drafted, Quentin Johnston in the first round of the NFL draft. I think that the pieces are there right now. And the division is one where I see a lot of high scoring battles, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson.

Patrick Mahomes, at least. I was a little surprised you went back to Russell Wilson there. Well, I just think that there's going to be some high-scoring games in that division. We'll see what Russ does. But, you know, Sean Payton's arrival and the optimism around Denver and obviously Jimmy Garoppolo is a high flyer. Oh, of course. So he's so exciting. Be ready. Devante Adams wants out already. But no, I think Justin Herbert is the kind of right now. the target for me in drafts. Yeah. Because I still don't want to take an Alan Mahomes where they're going to go, probably not hurts where he's going to go. There are still questions around Lamar. We haven't seen an upper echelon season from him in a while. So I think my target is going to be Herbert. And I think I said earlier in the off season, we were talking about this, this could be a pattern. Like I might take the lower performing borough or Herbert.

For a while. Like, I think Burroughs going obviously ahead of Herbert. Uh-huh. And so I think I might just choose the, this year's, you know, ugly performance. Uh, Every single season. It's basically who had a lower touchdown rate last season because the touchdowns are the least sticky metric. You go, you look at Aaron Rogers' illustrious first ballot Hall of Fame career and you see him throw for a ton of touchdowns one year and not as many of the next year. There are so many ways that these NFL teams are trying to score and it doesn't always come through the passing game. If you give Justin Herbert with the amount of passing attempts he gets just the NFL average touchdown rate.

He bounces back in as a great pick. And with Kellan Moore there. Late fourth round pick right now. And that's to say nothing of his rushing, right? His first two years, he averaged 268 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Got injured last year. Pretty much didn't run. It's like 140 yards, no rushing touchdown. So if you add on that, you know, you look at like Mahomes, Mahomes adds more in the rushing game than you really think because he's such a great passer. Herbert can. He has the physical tools to do so. And looking at the numbers for just like talking about. And he still is Ackler. Yes. And Kellyn Moore, right? The Kellynmore bump for Dak Prescott was massive. I mean, Dak Prescott went from like a 3,600-yard passer to a nearly 5,000-yard passer. Now, there's other variables at play of the Dallas defense, you know, allowing a bunch of points and everything. But from 2018 to 2019, Dak Prescott jumped up 1,100 yards.

eight touchdowns. And I mean, this is just in 16 games played. So, I mean, he went from like middling mid-tier quarterback production to top, top-tier quarterback production. So if you give that opportunity to a player who's, I think Herbert's proven himself at this point that with the right weapons around him in the right coaching scheme, he can be a top three fantasy quarterback. It comes down to the touchdowns, but I'm... I side more with you, Andy, of I think he is extremely interesting at his ADP with all the changes that have been made in the background for him that could turn in just an absolute monster season. When Joshua Palmer can be your number four options. Right. Or your number three option, depending on how Quentin Johnston progresses, and you still kept Echler. And we haven't talked a lot about Gerald Everett. It's going to be a very difficult offense to stop if things go according to plan. And obviously injuries, that's been a problem for them.

We could blink and Alan and Williams could be out again. And their offensive line was injured. There's a lot of reasons to be pro-chargers offense this year. Mike, what was your takeaway in terms of a stat surprise from here? So the most surprising guy, or maybe not the most, but one of them, it's Aaron Rogers. And his projections, I think, can go kind of all over the map. I, you know, I have his upside at a four and a half, which, but his risk is at a seven. Inherently, it's a very dangerous pick, but he's back. The changes from last year to this year, he's back with Nathaniel Hackett as the offensive play caller of which he won, you know, MVP's and was absolutely fantastic. Just his numbers, you know, 4,000 yards, but throwing up massive touchdown numbers, 37 and 48, the touchdowns plummeted to 26. He didn't have Devante Adams.

And so the fact that he's got his old play caller back, Garrett Wilson, they don't, he probably doesn't have the, you know, the mind mesh that he has with Devante Adams, but Garrett Wilson is a strong enough wide receiver that you have a true number one. Alan Lazard moves over with him. And Bruce Hall is going to be back to health. There's so much there. And you don't have to, like, you don't have to fudge the numbers, you know, very much of the pass rate can go up just. just slightly from last year. And Aaron Rogers comes out looking really, really good for me. It comes down to those touchdowns, but I do believe that the touchdown percent rises, goes back to a normal Aaron Rogers type of year. What did you project him at touchdowns? I have him at 32. Okay. So I have 32 touchdowns, and that makes them a top 10 quarterback for me. Yeah, I mean, that's the highest, I mean, of our three.

I'm the most bullish. I've got him at 16. I am not convinced 100%. I obviously lost Devante Adams, lost Hackett. Maybe that is the entire story. But I also think there is a chance that Aaron Rogers, at his age, is getting worse and will move across and is not the same MVP that he was two years ago. A year in the NFL is a long time. I will be interested to see what the run, pass. situation is for the first six weeks of the season with Breece Hall, who's supposed to be healthy, but I don't know what the workload is going to be like in the first handful of weeks. We took a look at this schedule for them. It's a little bit rough for the first half. Like if they end up going through week 10 and they're 500, I think they make the playoffs and they close strong. But it's going to be a very interesting start. And they have a good defense.

So it's like I'll be curious to see how much Aaron Rogers has on his shoulders to start the year. All right. Let's go ahead and get into some news. News and notes from around the league. Not a ton to talk about, but let's start here. Time Montgomery. What are we hearing about? Oh, man. The name from days gone by. Time Montgomery. The quote I'm seeing, a great chance to be the third down back and take the load off from Andre Stevenson. Yeah, hopefully y'all out there are listening to the Dynasty podcast because we have a segment every single week where right now we call it take or leave it where we just kind of throw out just a passing thought. And often we talk about nasty boys that might be out there on Dynasty waivers. And I brought up just all the other guys from the Patriots.

Kevin Harris, you got Pierre, I can't even. Pier Strong. Pierre Strong, Jr. And the fact that Ty Montgomery is still there and still under contract. He only played one game. And I know that James Robinson is there, but I think I'm not 100% sure that James Robinson makes this team. He's on his third team in the last five months or whatever. But Ty Montgomery last year, if you remember, was brought in, started to get a drumbeat of. He's going to be more involved than people really want to think about or talk into existence that this is a possibility. And this is great news for Ramandre Stevenson. But at the same time, Time Montgomery, if he is truly the third down running back, which he's a converted wide receiver, excellent pass catcher in a really deep PPR league, probably more of like a deeper dynasty league, Time Montgomery should be rostered.

That's gross. I kind of take this as offseason news that I don't care that much about. Because Ty Montgomery's involvement is, I mean, for one, I don't understand why is the former running back coach commenting? I mean, he hasn't been the coach of the Patriots since 2021. He was on a podcast asked question. So, I mean, he doesn't know what the heck's going on. Time Montgomery has had like a total of like 20 receptions in four years. I will allow camp to arrive before I were. I would be more concerned about James Robinson having a role personally than Time Montgomery. Because I think Remandre, like this is good news for Remandre if we're talking about Time Montgomery. Oh, yeah, it's good news for everyone who gets to draft Remandre a little bit lower because the 30-year-old scat back Time Montgomery, he might be involved in third.

third downs. Ramandre is not going to be out there getting 90% workload. I mean, there will be someone else involved. But when we're talking about Ty Montgomery, uh, uh, post injured, um, James Robinson and Pierre Strong and all these names. Like, this is a pro Ramandre Stevenson. Yes, it is. Uh, mouth. Brown's not expected to resign Kareem Hunt. Yes, my mouth is pro Ramondre Stevenson. I did miss the end of it. Huh. Okay. Your exclamation point. I missed it. No, Kareem Hunt back to the Browns. That's what we're hearing. I'm wondering of no Kareem Hunt back to the NFL. He will be hanging out waiting for an injury. Waiting for an injury. There comes a point where some players are just, they have a different view of themselves, Caminoon, than the NFL does. And when they don't meet.

then you don't play. I mean, it's like the team, there are teams that would love to add Cream Hunt to their running back room at like a price that they view Cream Hunt at now. And I don't know if he views himself that way. Just speculating. I mean, he hasn't found a home yet. So, um, and you would have thought there were teams like Denver or, you know, with opportunities to, to strengthen their back fields that are, that are bringing back injured players. I think he will find a team by August. Hayden Hurst, absent from OTAs, hernia surgery. No concerns should be back soon. Mitch Trubisky, two-year extension. With the Steelers, if you didn't remember where he is at. He started quite a few games last year, didn't he? A handful, I think, like three. Maybe he came in during the injury later in the year. Does he start any games this year? Not without injury to Pickett. I don't think Pickett plays himself off the field. I was talking to some Steeler fans over the weekend.

Uh-oh. Very enthusiastic about Kenny Pickett. You don't say. Yeah. The fans of the franchise were optimistic? Well, I mean, they did it ask my opinion? And what was it? I don't know. I don't know if he's got what it takes. But they were convinced. I do not believe he has what it takes to be a great quarterback. And I believe he is in a situation around him to be forced into being a good enough quarterback to succeed long enough to have. an average NFL career. Like, I think if he went to a bad franchise, he would just flame out. But he's going to win games. He's going to be well coached. He's going to do enough because of...

Tomlin and the organization, their draft pedigree, the talent around him where he's going to, he'll make a playoffs. I think he will make the playoffs in his career. Did you say a playoff? A playoff. He will make a playoff. I heard it. And I didn't know if that meant this year or not. I mean, unfortunately, you're right. I mean, when you look at the division and the quarterback strength and the teams and you're like, okay, they should be last and they won't. The Steelers will not end up lasting that division. Something will happen. Somebody will fold and it won't be the Steelers. Don't bet against blue collar. That's Pittsburgh. He makes the playoffs. They're hard working down there. They make a lot of playoffs. You know a lot about Pittsburgh. So much. Yeah. Steel and stuff. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Any other news, Bruxie? No, sir. Let's take a quick break here and come back with some mail bank.

Well, the steelers are, is it steel mill? Is that what it is? All the steel mills in Pittsburgh? I believe so. And what do those do, Jason? Well, those produce steel, I would imagine. They mill it. Yeah, they're going to mill about. What do they make it from? Oh, they mine it? Do you mine steel? I genuinely have no idea how steel is made. It's got to be mined, right? No, no. For real? I mean, not the steel itself. Well, yeah, I mean, some. Is it steel iron that's been, something's been done to it? Steel should be, it's a metal that's a, what do they call that when they put two metals together or whatever? Isn't that what it is? Forged? We are really smart. Oh, man. An alloy. That's what I miss. Is steel an alloy? Al, we are staring at you. We need your help. We are staring at you needing this metallurgy help. It's made from iron or compound of iron, oxygen, and other minerals that occur in nature.

Sorry, I had put it in the Slack channel. I wasn't chiming in, but yes. It's just ironed? Well, there's a process that is done to make it stronger. Is it an alloy or is it not an alloy? I don't believe it's an alloy. Okay, what is an alloy? I don't know. That's a whole other subject. Blue collar. Chips alloy. They're delicious cookie. That's what it is. There is alloy steel, which is. Yeah, there is. Several different elements, magnesium, nickel, chromium. Bruks, I didn't want to leave you out of this. If you have a lot of steel expertise, will you feel free to chime in in the future? Yeah, you guys got it all. So an alloy is a metal made by combining two or more metallic elements. You went to chips. It was bad. I respected it. Thank you. No, you're, uh,