Starts of the Week + Week 7 Breakdown, Hot Potato - Fantasy Football Podcast for 10/20

You do not want to miss a minute of today's episode. We've got tons of news to talk about. We're never not working. We're going to be into the starts of the week. We got matchups. And of course, Jason surprises us with some eloquence in the boom boom kicker segment. Make sure you like this video. Yes, like this video. Subscribe and enjoy. The fantasy footballer studio is brought to you by Samsung Galaxy. Visit Samsung.com to learn more. This is Austin Eckler, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, come in. It's for about time. I think we hope and we pray. Oh, you can't get worse, right?

Thursday night? Oh, no, no, don't tempt fate. We thought that two weeks ago. And then I think it did get worse. It got worse. Absolutely. Last week was worse than two weeks ago. And tonight. Can we pray? Come on, Cardinals. Please, please do something. Yeah, well, we have injuries that are marking up tonight's game that we'll talk about. Classic Thursday. Yeah, I mean. I think the offense on the New Orleans side will be the most interesting thing to watch because they just don't have a lot of... We don't even know who the quarterback is. The last quote I got from Dennis Allen was, I think we'll let you know right before kickoff. That's what his actual... I mean, that's what the quote was. Yeah, I mean, they know who it is, and it's going to be Andy Dalton. I think it is. Yeah, but based on how the teams were practicing... Andy Andy. I think it's going to be Andy Dalton. Yeah, I mean...

Not a guarantee, but I believe it will be Andy Dalton. So stupid. I, it's stupid. Look, if you're talking about Jimmy Garoppolo versus Trey Lance and you're not going to, okay, there is an advantage. You prepare, are you going to have a spy? Are you going to, the difference between Andy Dalton and James Winston, whichever quarterback is going to be starting, all you're doing at practice is having your cornerbacks on the jugs machines practicing catching because it's coming your way. I see what you're saying. Yeah. You prep the same. I mean, so stupid. What would be the advantage of telling people? What is that it's just, it's the endorsement of your guy like publicly saying, Andy, you're the guy. We believe in you. We're telling everybody. But if they did that privately, does it matter publicly? No, it, it doesn't really matter either way. But that's why it's more stupid.

To play this dumb game thinking you get an advantage. Well, we don't have time for this debate today. The debate's done. It's stupid. Okay. It's been settled. There is no debate. Thursday, October 20th, the fantasy football is never not working. News and notes, the fantasy forecast, the starts of the week, the boom boom kicker. Lots going on. So we better get it started. Never not working. Presented by Head and Shoulders, Scamp Shield Technology, available at Walmart. It is time for never not working this week. And we've had a lot of discussion over the past week in particular about what NFL offenses are doing, why we have a reduction in total points scored, why people are leaving the week with disappointment on the whole, even if you sneak out a win. I mean, we've had discussions about total points scored in our leagues.

And there's this kind of like overarching feeling of like this amount of points scored per week equals you deserve to win. Whereas if you win with less than that, you didn't deserve it. Well, scoring is down. And so why? Why is that happening? And so we wanted to take a little look at what's actually going on and maybe a few things that we can bank on in terms of. teams that may recover from this slow start to the 2022 season. Right now, according to Pro Football Focus, we have the lowest yards per dropback since 2007. Gross. So there's not a lot happening consistently right now. Thanks, Russell. It's all Russell's fault. That's true. So we wanted to look at two different metrics. One is dangerous. First, let's not, Mike.

It's not. He needs a more stringent PR team to clamp down on some of these. Sorry. That PR team better be like Clorox's PR team. It's getting close to the point where like, remember Baker was in every commercial, but then it was embarrassing that Baker was in every commercial. Yeah. But anyway, we're looking at two metrics. First downs per game and then red zone touchdown rate. First downs per game gives us an indicator of which teams can move the football. You know, the number of offensive teams that are getting, you know, the number of team offensive first downs per game is similar to last year. Okay. But the teams that are improving in first downs per game are throwing fantasy football for a loop. These are the teams that have improved the most. Jacksonville is one of them. And you have Philly. Okay, that makes sense. You have Cleveland. You have the Giants. You have the Vikings. You have the Falcons.

Saints and the Detroit Lions, believe it or not. These are teams that are improving their first down efficiency, but a lot of these teams, they prefer to run the football, slow the game down, win the game in an ugly fashion, and even the Eagles, who you see on that list, and you're like, oh, they're great. Well, there's second halves, Jason. How many times have you gone into halftime with a certain amount of points from Jalen Hertz? And that's what you end with. Yeah, it feels like about half the games. And the first halves are great. Don't get me wrong. But Jalen, let's keep it up. Keep the pedal on the metal. Set some records, man. Well, the ad or like your defense needs to get worse. That would help as well. The passing offenses that we bought into in fantasy are the ones that have actually slipped in efficiency in terms of first downs.

Cowboys, Bucks, Chargers, and Rams, they've all regressed in first downs per game, and there are a ton of fantasy draft picks on those rosters. And the second metric, the red zone touchdown rate, which is how often does a red zone trip turn into six points? Through six weeks last year, teams averaged a touchdown on 63% of the red zone trips. There's only nine teams doing that this year. Gross. So red zone efficiency has become a major problem. And so what do we actually want in fantasy? We want teams that do both of these things. They get first downs. They sustain the drive, but then they actually are efficient and get it done in the red zone. We want bend, then break. Bend, then break. Come on. And there are only seven teams that rank in top 12 in both of those metrics, the top, the first downs per game and the red zone touchdown rate. Chiefs, bills. Yeah. Okay, that's what we thought. Carry on. Keep playing those players. Continue. Minnesota.

Philadelphia, Cleveland. And, you know, I think we believe in those offenses, right, that they can sustain production. But those are three teams that want to run when the game is neutral. So bear that in mind. But the two big bounce back teams that I think are the headline of this never not working, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Because you can believe in the bounce back in these passing games. They throw, they're efficient, they sustain drives, they need to stay healthy. First week that Justin Herbert's off the entry report for his ribs is this week. Chris Godwin just got back. Mike Evans and company, those are two offenses that I think you can target for by low opportunities. You know, we've been waiting for Keenan Allen to get back, but it's more than that. It's the health of Justin Herbert. Mike, you said they were both unstoppable and completely stoppable in the Monday night game because they had these long sustained first down drives. They just didn't get that little touchdown efficiency at the end. Well, they had their folk hero of the week.

Yeah. They're a kicker. They had this, you know, keep pushing that narrative on us. And Mike said yesterday, look, the Chargers are on by next week. Keenan may or may not play this week. He may take the extra week. You know, you need extra leverage in trades. If Justin Herbert doesn't have a monster game this week, which, look, it could happen at Seattle. And it could limit your opportunity to buy low. That might be now versus next week. But if he has just a normal, mediocre kind of middle of the road week and you go into the buy, you're going to have somebody that's pretty dissatisfied in Justin Herbert over seven weeks, and you may be able to pick him up with a much stronger Keenan Allen on the roster, a team going into the future. So any other takeaways you guys want to throw in there? No, I think the takeaways are right. And those two teams, what an episode to have it on, because we're going to be talking starts the week later at the end of this episode, and we're going to be talking about both those teams. Do you feel similar about Justin Herbert?

So we like Justin Herbert. About Brady? Yeah, about Tom Brady, who's been massively underperforming from what you are used to from Tom Brady. I think the only thing holding you back is that narrative of like will the decline in ability happen at some point. Whereas you know that's not happening for Justin Herbert, but. I think that there's probably a more compelling case that, yeah, the bounce back is going to happen. You're going to have bigger games from Brady than you've had at the beginning of the year. Yeah, I mean, you know, the week before last, Tom Brady only had one touchdown and it was super disappointing against Atlanta. But he was 67% completion and threw for 351 yards. He didn't look bad. It just didn't score in the, you know, didn't convert to touchdowns. And that's what this never not working is talking about. So I think that those will come. Yeah. Carolina.

Baltimore, the Rams, and Seattle all at home for the next four weeks for Tampa. So, you know, you get through those four weeks and he's struggling, then we've got a different concern. Might want to trade for. Yeah. All right. Get up to 100% dandruff protection that is never not working with head and shoulder, scalp shield technology available at Walmart.com. Use it every time you shampoo and see the difference. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Speaking of the Chargers, Keenan Allen, he was asked if he might want to take one more game to let the hamstring heal. He's got the buy week. He said, yeah, most definitely. It's going to be a thought process going into it. Definitely want to play in the smartest way. That's the best thing. And if it's the best thing, that's what it will be. But Josh Palmer didn't practice due to a concussion. Yeah, TBD, just monitor it. I mean, obviously last time Keenan said, hey, put me in your lineups. He didn't do anything. This time he's saying,

Oh, absolutely. I'll take the extra week off. Liar, liar. Oh, no. But I actually don't think he plays this week. Well, Gerald Everett's going to be very interesting start this week. They're going to throw the football. And their defense hasn't been very good. Seattle, they can score. So I think Gerald Everett could take advantage of the opportunity. And then you're looking at like Deep League, DFS, DeAndre Carter. Sure. because you're out of options. If Keenan and Josh Palmer don't play is what I'm saying. Speaking of former Chargers, Melvin Gordon, Nathaniel Hackett came out and said he will start at running back in week seven. I would, I mean, if you put him in your lineup, you know, take four to six tons and then do some of the praying Mike talked about at the beginning of the show because look, it could work out. I'm not going to say it can't work out with Melvin Gordon, but.

You know, the question of can you trust Melvin Gordon in your lineup this week? It is a very scary proposition to trust him. They interviewed him in the locker room. He kind of looked. I mean, he was a funny interview. He looked at the reporters and he was like, they're like, hey, are you happy you're starting this week? He's like, how's the starter last week? Like, I think things are going to be okay. So then on the other side here. people you know we were latavius murray was kind of the de facto big running back pickup him him and kenyon drake and it was we talked about i mean who knows if latavius murray is actually the guy be cautious when you're going after him but let's say that you were pushed into your you're back to no corner you had to go hard after latavius murray what do you do with this news are you

Are you putting Latavius Murray in? Are you looking for a different option? You're looking for a different option. Obviously, if you had to go hard at Latavius Murray, you probably don't have another option. Brian Robinson or those two guys? Brian Robinson for sure. Rahim Moster to those two guys. Rahim Moster without a shadow of a doubt. Okay, trick question. Devon Singletary if he was playing, but he's on by. What if you picked up both of the waiver wire guys, Kenyon Drake? I would play Kenyon Drake. Okay. I would too. Yeah, I think that makes three of us. Ravens updates. Lamar Jackson was limited. Mark Andrews didn't practice. This is a rest day, according to John Harbaugh. One of the bigger questions, Rashad Bateman, he did return to a limited practice. Okay. Mike is pumping his fist never for the production of Rashad Bateman, but always for the success of Lamar Jackson. Jason, you had.

Some numbers. I don't know if you have them in front of you. I don't have them in front of me, nor do I remember the person who tweeted. Nor do I remember. Nor was it me you speak up. I would love to give credit to the person on Twitter who had the numbers. But it showed that Lamar Jackson against the blitz this year is almost identical in total snaps that he has been blitzed with Rashad Bateman and without Rashad Bateman. With him, he had like 350 yards, seven touchdowns was just out. standing and in games where he doesn't have Bateman on the field. It was one touchdown, 100 and something yards. It was night and day difference. Kyle did find that if you want to shout it out. Yes, Kyle, give credit where credit do. Jordan Vanek on Twitter, seven TDs with Rashad Bateman, only one without him. And I think the extra takeaway in that is that the matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns, they blitzed on 50% of their dropbacks last week.

I have been monitoring Bateman very closely. I'll just be honest for our Draft King's lineup. I'm looking at Lamar Jackson. He costs a lot. If Bateman is out there, I'm confident to play him. If Bateman isn't, I don't want to spend up. And so this isn't about just, can I play Bateman? But what he does for Lamar Jackson, today will be the day of importance because limited on a Wednesday is whatever. It's a matter of, does he get a full practice in on Thursday? If he does, I'm in on Lamar. If he doesn't, I'm going to assume that he's not ready for full go this week. Lamar Jackson did come out and say, you're my number one guy. He did. He came out and said, that's our number one guy. Rashad Bateman back at practice. Now you put him right back in your lineup. If he's full today. I mean, if he's starting on Sunday. Yeah. Okay. Darren Waller didn't practice injured on Monday night football. This is a real.

Not practicing off of the buy, so he is not fully back to full strength. Obviously, it is still a Wednesday because he was dealing with a hamstring. It could just be, hey, let's let's let him have as much time as possible. But as all Wednesday practice reports, you really can't learn very much. Medically cleared, Dak Prescott, set to play in week seven. Let's go. For Pittsburgh, both the Muth and Kenny Pickett practiced in full on Wednesday. Wow. So Pickett. A full practice on Wednesday, that must have been a very minor concussion situation. I suppose so. Well, you did have the passing of concussion protocol from Teddy Bridgewater in a timely enough fashion to play. They chose to not make him the starter. So I think you could see Kenny Pickett out there this week. Seems like it. And then for Thursday night football tonight, official word, no Michael Thomas, no Jarvis Landry, no Adam Troutman, no Marshaun Lattimore for the Saints.

Andy Dalton is expected to start. Do we have any, I mean, is that official or just the expectation from us saying it like 20 minutes ago? Yeah, I believe the report is from Jason Moore of the famous football. I expect Andy Dalton to start. And then James Connor questionable despite not practicing. I lean the bad side of questionable because you get 10 more days to get better. Do you guys agree, disagree? Would you play him, I guess? It's the question if he's active. I would not play him. The Saints defensive line is great. The Cardinals' offensive line is extra injured. They already were poor. Right. But now they are injured on top of that. So no, I'm honestly, if James Connor is out, Eno, I don't think is a great play either. He's fine enough from a volume standpoint. Should get plenty of the work to, you know, maybe scratch his way up to 10 fantasy points. But I don't think I want to start either.

I'll remind people the start-set tools available at the website, the fantasy footballers.com, because I know a lot of people are struggling with Rondale more or tonight. I think Rondale's going to have a great game. I do. I think he's going to have a lot of targets in this game, and especially if James Conner's out and we are struggling with the offensive line and we need those short area targets. I think Rondale will be involved enough to start them over those mediocre, like over Garrett Wilson. Yeah, my projections have him with 10 receptions for 12 yards. So if you're a full PPR, all those, all those catches behind the line of scrimmage. Oh, man. Yeah, PJ Tucker would love throwing to Rondale Moore. All right, that was today's news and notes brought to you by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Quick break. And then we're back with the matchups for week seven. Oh, Rondale Moore. Is he good? Yeah.

I don't think I don't think anyone can find out until Cliff Kingsbury's out of the way. Yeah, I mean, what if he gives up play calling duties? Then he's left to his real strength, time management. Oh, gosh. Maybe it was just a lack of focus. He needs to focus on how many timeouts he has, when to call him. He was brought in to be an offensive solution. That was going to be the calling card. He's bringing the air raid. college offense to Kyler Murray. That's the solution. And we're like, hey, Cliff, would you give up play calling? Oh, gosh. What's weird is that from a, from a metric standpoint, he's been upper half since he got here with Kyler. Yeah, he's got Kyler Murray. But once Hopkins left, and they were seven and no last year, and then you lose Hopkins and they couldn't function, which that is part of genius. You need to be able to adjust off of, uh, it's not like they didn't know Hopkins wasn't going to be here this past six weeks.

Correct. They knew that early. All right. Into the forecast, we go. Fantasy forecast. All right, the Atlanta Falcons at three and three, taking on the Cincinnati Bengals, who are three and three. It's a battle of heavyweights here. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Cincinnati minus six and a half. The overrunners 47. It's at a home in Cincinnati. You know, you guys have spent a decent amount of time in your lives. making fun of Arthur Smith and also making fun of Zach Taylor. Yes. Pick one. To make fun of? Well, no. No, pick one to be your coach. Oh, pick one to me, my coach, Zach Taylor. And I probably mock him more, but I just don't like the methodology of how you want to win in a perfect world for Arthur Smith. In a perfect world for him, it is.

the glory days of the Tennessee Titans where I could just run the ball, you know, 40 times a game. What we have seen over the last month or so is very, very interesting for the Cincinnati Bengals. Over the last month, they are number one in neutral pass rate and fourth in EPA per passing play. This is in the off season. Everything I talked about and we talked about for the Cincinnati Bengals is will they let Joe Burrow. Be the dude. Will they let him drop back and pass? If it's first down, if the game is close, are you just going to keep trying to hand the ball off to Joe Mixen a bunch? And we need to recognize this change because the first couple weeks, it was same old Cincinnati, give the ball a hundred times, neutral game, slow it down. And very similar to what we saw in the reverse last year with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles came out and they were throwing the ball like crazy and then something happened and they go, you know what, we're better off.

running the ball. And so they changed. Well, the changes happened here for Cincinnati. I do think that they are handing the reins to Joe Burrow, who's been very good lately, and they're going to say, you win the game. We've got the weapons to do it. You've proven you can get it done. And in this matchup, you know, the strength of the Falcons defense is against the run, not that they are, you know, a lockdown rushing defense, but. they can be thrown on very, very easily. So this matchup, based on what we've been seeing over the last month for the Bengals and how it specifically coalesces with the Falcons, I believe good things for the Bengals passing game. What's the temperature on Joe Mixon right now? 14th at the running back position through six weeks, which is, you know, that's not terrible. You know, you're going to hope for some bigger games. Like you got week one, he was a top 10 running back. Hasn't been a top 10 running back since then.

Is this a player that you are buying, selling, holding? What's your view of mixing right now? If I had mixing, I would be holding. I'm fine going to trade for him. The last couple weeks, things have been way better. Could this be just the natural pickup of the running game? Because now, like Jason was saying, they're kind of flipping it. They're going to a more pass-heavy approach. So teams are, that's what they're trying to adjust to. They're scared of the pass. You can't just... clamp down and say, let's stop Joe Mixing because we know he's going to get the ball 25 times. So 2.7 yards per carry for the first month. That has skyrocketed to 5.6 the past couple of weeks. So I would be, if you've weathered the storm with Joe Mixon, I think that the points are about to start coming. Now, one of the interesting storylines here, T. Higgins has been banged up. Despite being banged up, he had, I think, 10 targets last week. Yeah. In games where T. Higgins played a full.

matchup. He's got a higher target share by a little less than a percent than Jamar Chase. Yeah, T. Higgins is an every week start. We, I think we were, Jason, we were answering a question about who to go after at the wide receiver position. And I threw out T. Higgins. Target and a trade. Yeah. Yeah. And I threw out T. Higgins because of the, the Bengals schedule is just delightful. I believe it is like the softest remaining wide receiver schedule. And. Getting Jamar Chase is going to be very, very difficult, especially since fantasy players that have him. They've been waiting, waiting, waiting. He finally explodes last week. I think that locks in that getting Jamar Chase is going to be very difficult. But getting T. Higgins is, you could probably do that. And over, I mean, on the season, T. Higgins has been fantastic. Like a lot of times better than Jamar Chase. So I would be actively going after him if you could.

Yeah, the total target numbers for both of those players have been out of this world, the stuff you love to see because they're too talented where you give them that many targets, something good is going to happen for your fantasy team. Yep. On the other side of, so they're both in your lineup this week. Yes, on the other side of the ball, you know, just grab the dice and chuck them across the room because on the road against Cincinnati, you know. If you want to find a place to start someone, they're not great against tight ends. They're not the worst, but they're not great against him. Kyle Pitts, you know, would you play him over Tason Hill tonight? Probably not. Probably not. I don't think so. You play him over Everett? Probably no way. I love the matchup for Everett this week. I think Everett is a great play. I would play Everett. Would you play him over Hurst in the same game?

I think I'd do that. Yes, I would play him over Haydenhurst. Are we just waiting on, like, is Drake, what is Drake London for your fantasy team right now? Because it doesn't seem like an auto start or an auto flex. So then, but we don't expect the office to change, right? Like, what could happen in the, in the, the sands of time over the next 10 weeks that would change our view of the, of the Falcons offense? Because, you know, Desmond Ritter's not a. a savior. It's not like Arthur Smith's going to want to make him... expose him to a bunch of turnovers when you're winning games running the football. I think it really is more a matter of what happens on the defensive side of the ball for the Falcons. If they are in these games, if they're close, if they're down one score, or if they're up, this is a team that wants to run the ball. They do not want to throw the ball and they're going to be happy to even take a loss with 22 passing attempts in a game. However, if they're getting smoked, if the Bengals.

you know, which I think the Bengals are going to be able to put up points in the passing game against them, then they'll have to throw the ball more. If they're throwing the ball more, Drake London, Drake London has been good on a per target basis, you know, on a per route run basis. They're just not running and throwing enough. Here's an embarrassing stat, though, to that point. There's still number two in rest rate when trailing. Yeah, I mean, they, that's, this is why I chose Zach Taylor over Arthur Smith. The, the story for me on Drake London is, This week, he's still on your bench. But then from week eight through week 17, they have plus matchups every single week except for two. So he's interesting. The thing that can change is just a weaker defense against the pass against wide receivers. And the target share, if it holds, you just become more efficient and catch more of the targets. That's the hope for Drake London. Okay. But until then, he's just on your bench.

Yeah, target share is one of those metrics I don't give a fart about on a team like that. Yep, on a team. This is why I'm not looking for plus matchups against wide receivers. I'm looking for against great offenses. You have to force the Falcons to throw the ball and then Drake London will be good. Detroit, one and four, taking on the Dallas Cowboys who are four and two. These games in Dallas, the Cowboys are seven point home favorites. The O'Runders 49 points. And, you know, Dallas escapes the DAC injury at 4-2 with an elite defense. And interesting fact here, Dallas and Pittsburgh are the only... Is this true, Kyle? Read that for me. Yeah, Jason and I looked it up yesterday. Only teams without an offensive player to score 20 fantasy points in a game. That's kind of wild. But it also, like, makes sense. I guess I would have thought CD got there. Close. He's like 19...