2019 Rookie Review Show + MAN LUNGS - Fantasy Football Podcast

ongoing year-long fantasy football news cycle discussion topics is that you can talk about a player for a really long period of time, establish the value that has not been proved on the field, and then be trapped by that value for years to come. Right. When you should just move forward. You should just move on. I'm not saying you should do that with David Montgomery.

I'm just kind of asking that question because before the season and in the preseason, he made such a splash for people. There was such an expectation with Matt Nagy and what Jordan Howard had done and why they were drafting this guy in the third round. And then you didn't see the fantasy production or really the NFL production on a consistent basis that gave you confidence moving forward. In games where he didn't score a touchdown, he averaged 5.7 fantasy points per game. That's...

About as touchdown dependent as they come for a starting running back. I don't. Same rushing attempts as Josh Jacobs. One more rushing attempt than Aaron Jones. Did nothing with them. Where are you putting your odds on it not happening for Montgomery? 50%. Okay. So just right down the middle. Right down the middle. Would you try and offload him in Dynasty? Yeah.

Yeah, I would probably try to offload him because the risk is very high. Now, I will say this. I thought your question was going to be, what are the odds that he has the opportunity to be the guy next year? I think he'll have the opportunity. That question is pretty much near certain. So.

he will have the opportunity. And that in and of itself at running back, like if you've got the chance for 250 carries. That's why he's called David Ma Opportunity. Exactly. But that is a lot of carries to have not seen a consistent production. There's a lot wrong in that offense. You could be dealing with a quarterback change now or halfway through the season. Right. You could be dealing with a very unhealthy kind of mood around the offense halfway through the year.

I do think he'll have the chance. I did see plays that I thought were special from time to time. His balance is ridiculous. He is a good pass catcher. The change of quarterback does need to be factored in, factored into your value. Look at Tannehill. Yeah, that's exactly where I was going to go. Look at Derek Henry. I mean, now Henry was having fantasy success at the beginning of the year, but he hit the Nitro button as soon as.

defenses had to actually worry about the quarterback. And Jason's not here, so I guess I'll be the one to say it. Defenses are not worried about Mitch Trubisky. He's not good. You are not wrong. Sorry. Alan Robinson is good. Yes. And if for some reason, there's so many things that could be unleashed from the bears if they weren't being held down by a 500 pound weight.

Well, that's true, Mike. Or however. Quarterbacks make, I don't think Mitcherbisky weighs 500. Probably not. That's probably you're rounding upwards. I think I overshot by it. You overshot by a couple hundred pounds. Yeah. That's fine. I just wanted to illustrate how much he is dragging this team down. Anthony Miller, Alan Robinson, and David Montgomery on this team. This offense should. Well, what if it's Cam Newton?

What if all of a sudden you've got an opportunity for Cam Newton to run some of these, you know, option plays and involve, we saw Cam and what he did for McCaffrey when he had a weapon out of the backfield. So I think that there is a chance that we end up on the opportunity hype train again if some things change. Yeah, we'll see how devoted Chicago is with Ms. Trubisky. But if he's not effective, I don't think Matt Nagy is going to hesitate.

to utilize other players. And we've seen this. And it was frustrating to have Montgomery off the field in leverage situations or two minute drills. Things like that that went to Rick Cohen, despite Cohen not having any efficiency last year. You remember the Mike Davis week one? Yes. Yeah. That says a lot. I mean, I highlighted that rookies drafted in the first three rounds. Those are the type of guys that could produce. He was a third round pick.

and he couldn't pass Mike Davis by week one. Yeah. All right, a player I'm more excited about Devin Singletary. We talked about him quite a bit. He missed some time from weeks three through six. He never put up one of those great fantasy week-winning type of weeks, but he was good 50% of the time, which you love seeing. You also just highly efficient player. I mean, you're talking about somebody who on basically...

100 fewer carries. Competed yards-wise with David Montgomery? I mean, wasn't touchdown dependent at all. Only four touchdowns on the year, but still put up a good fantasy game 50% of the time. I just think that Devon Singletary has a great opportunity to step up, to level up for fantasy owners. He was dynamic. He was RB 16 from week 7 through 16. Yeah, and from week 9 on,

basically said, okay, Devin Singleton, you're the guy. He was averaging 16 carries, 75 yards on the ground and two and a half receptions per game. The problem were it was touchdowns. He had a touchdown for every 75 and a half carries. That's absolutely ridiculous, but the big plays are there. 20 or more rushing yards on 4.6% of his runs. That's number one in terms of percent for big runs.

He had seven total runs of over 20 yards. That's only one fewer than Sequin Barclay. You can just see it. And I've talked about he doesn't make sense. He's small. He's smaller than a prototypical running back. His athletic profile is close to mine. Oh, come on. Not true. I've just improved mine.

You've improved your athletic profile. I mean, his athletic testing at the combine was, it felt like a death sentence. But here he is, just being awesome. And the Devon Singletary feels like an outlier at this point. Well, this was in some way similar to, you know, Kareem Hunt going in the, was a third round pick, right? Right. So didn't necessarily jump off the page at the combine, but in pads, instinct.

lateral movement, the ability to find a hole, fit with the offense, all those things matter. Singletary, how would you, let me put it to you this way. Okay. He finished as the RB 16, if you look at week 7 through 16, when he was basically back from injury. Yeah, got the starter position. Is he a top 15 running back for you next year? Oh, man. I know we're sitting here in February, but do you think he's in that top 15?

Because I think he is. I think he's right on the, I mean, right on the edge there. 15 is a really good over under. I think I would lean the under right now. If he said he's a top 20 guy, yes, he'll be a top 20 running back. Those touchdowns that I was talking about, it's going to be a problem. In his career, Josh Allen, for all the improvements he made, the Buffalo Bills are never going to be a B.

really high-powered offense who are putting up super gaudy touchdown numbers. It's just not going to happen. Even if they do, he's going to steal some of them. And then on top of that, Josh Allen is going to rip off six rushing touchdowns or so every single year, cannibalizing from Devin Singletary's ceiling. So top 15, I think that's tough. Because his percentage of great games next year, as the full-time starter, it's still not going to be.

a wow number, but he'll be very good. He'll be a rock solid running back too. Do you think he'll be drafted in a position where you'll be interested? I think Devin Singletary will be a third round pick, probably. Other rookie running backs, is there anybody you want to bring up? I mean, we saw, we didn't get to see much of Darnell Anderson. Oh, I'm sorry, Daryl Henderson. Damien Harris. We didn't get to see much of. Didn't Jason really like that Damien Harris, fella?

Yes, he may still have an opportunity. He might, but the numbers that were highlighted by a good friend of the show, J.J. Zacharison, of players with his draft capital that don't produce in Year 1 is not good. No, what about Darwin Thompson? I think we have seen what we need to see from Darwin Thompson. Really? Yeah. You're closing the book. I'm closing the book on him having actual real fantasy value. Tony Poller? Pollard's a backup. He's stuck.

Yeah, he's an awesome handcuff to have for, if you have Zeke, but... My name is Alexander Madison? He's all, same thing. I think Alexander Madison's an incredibly talented running back, but Dalvin Cook's in the way. If you had to handicap any of the kind of irrelevant rookies from this past class that could step into a role that makes sense next year, is it like a Daryl Henderson? Yeah, it would, honestly, it might be, it might be Justice Hill.

That's fair. Of what's going on. He was a fourth round pick. I don't love that. But Justice Hill, super duper athlete. And he's on a team that actually it will be a high-powered offense, even though we've talked about the regression that will hit the Ravens naturally. There's still going to be one of the better offenses than the league. And in front of Justice Hill, it's Mark Ingram, who's like 50,000 years old.

I think you exaggerated that one like you did Mitch Tribisky. I did it again. I think you were close. I was off by like 49,000 years. But I mean the point like Mark Ingram is old for a running back. I'm not going to bet against Mark Ingram because he keeps defying the odds. Ingram was an efficiency master though. He wasn't just like a volume play. And Justice Hill worked his way into the rotation. He's not a big guy.

So it's going to be a compliment on a team that scores a lot of points. And Gus Edwards, not currently under contract. I mean, maybe Baltimore brings him back. You think the bus may be heading down the road somewhere else? It might. I mean, Gus Bus, I hope he gets a contract. I think he's played well enough that he should get paid. Doesn't just drive out of the league? Yeah. He's a good player. Yeah. I bet you they bring him back. That's what I mean. That's something we don't know yet. He's just good enough.

to where they'd like him back, but nobody else is going to come steal him. Give him a couple million dollars, Baltimore. He's earned it. All right, you brought up rookie-wide receiver stats for no reason earlier. So this is the time to do it. 2019 rookie-wide receivers. It was a big year for rookie-wide receivers. You know, the number of rookie-wide receivers who finished in the top 36 over the past five years. Let me give this to you. In 2015, just won.

Then it was in 2016, there were three rookie wide receivers in that top 36. Then it was two. Last year, or in 2018, it was one. This past year, five of them. A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Debo Samuel, D.K. McCaff, Darius Slayton, all in the top 36. And somewhat comically, I think, you know, you look at...

Bad situation. And so we're not even talking about Hollywood Brown. And I think nobody doubts that Hollywood Brown was relevant for fantasy this past year. It wasn't consistency for fantasy. It was splotchy. Yeah. It was splotchy. Yeah. Like if it was on your skin, you might want to have a doctor check it out. Correct. Correct. It is not necessarily healthy for you. Right. But you saw the potential. So I think we all consider Hollywood to be in that group of rookie wide receivers this past year that will continue to have relevance on into the future.

But we talked about he was in a non-passing offense. A.J. Brown thought you were stuck with Marietta. Terry McClureen. Those were situations. Darius Slayton. It was either Eli or a rookie. Yet you had relevance there. Let me ask you this. When you go into 2020 and we're looking at the rookie wide receiver class, which should be strong. Right. And you look at situations. Does this serve as a.

a lesson in terms of not, you know, underestimating a player simply because of that quarterback or offense situation, knowing that things do change. AJ Brown, very relevant. McLaurin, when he was healthy, made it happen. Right. Or could this be a trap for us? We've done this ping pong thing in fantasy. You go from, oh my, rookie wide receivers to, oh, no. Yeah, yeah, the 2014 class.

kind of threw everything upside down. We had more productive rookies at the wide receiver position, but honestly, it followed what we had talked about and what we continued to talk about. A.J. Brown, when was he good? The second half of the season. You have Debo Samuel. When was CX? When was he good? The second half of the year. Even D.K. Yeah, D.K. Metcalfe. So Terry McLoren is kind of the outlier.