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Main show · February 6, 2020

2019 Rookie Review Show + MAN LUNGS - Fantasy Football Podcast

RSSFeb 6, 2020 · transcript indexed
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2019 Rookie Review Show + MAN LUNGS - Fantasy Football Podcast

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Inside the episode

141 passages
14:44 ↗

For fantasy owners, up and down year, you know, from an NFL perspective, but over 500 rushing yards, it was a good season. I mean, do you see a very bright fantasy future for Kyler? I 100% see a bright future for Kyler. I mean, it's going to be just the natural pick of next year, everyone's saying, who's the new Lamar Jackson? And, I mean, Kyler Murray will...

15:13 ↗

clearly be the pick that the industry goes with. I mean, similar profiles of very mobile quarterbacks. Very few guys have done what Kyler has done of throwing for over 3,500 yards and rushing for 500 yards and did it in year one. So yes, I see an absolute bright future for Kyler Murray. When I was looking up, you know, just kind of historical stats of the rookie quarterbacks, it's...

15:41 ↗

Not really surprising when that 12 of the 15 quarterbacks who put up a top, 12 of the 15 top rookie quarterback fantasy seasons. Man, that was a struggle. The struggle is real getting there for that one. That 12 of 15, that they're first or second round picks. And eight of the 15 are the first or second pick overall. So basically when you're watching the draft.

16:10 ↗

probability-wise, if your quarterback is not the first or second pick off the board, you're not going to get a good rookie season. When I'm thinking about that division in the Cardinals quarterback situation before Kyler, which was Josh Rosen and a dangerous future. Right. I mean, this is a buzzsaw division. This is tough. You're going to deal with Bosa. You're going to deal with Donald. You're going to deal with Clownie, possibly.

16:40 ↗

six games a year. You need a quarterback that can run away from them as fast as possible. And, you know, Murray fits the mold of somebody that you're going to get more weapons around him, like you said, the draft pedigree. And we don't have to speculate as fantasy owners as to the potential because from Weeks 1 through 11, he was the QB5. We already saw the value. I mean, I made a trade in a league where I unloaded Murray to get my homes. Right.

17:08 ↗

and spent six weeks regretting the decision because I had to pay a lot more than Kyla Murray, and Murray outperform Mahomes during those weeks. He's had some stretches that were really good. Certainly an exciting future for Kyler. Gardner, Menshoe, Daniel Jones, the other two quarterbacks, rookies coming in that had opportunities this past year. Gardner is very difficult. You can't even say for sure if Gardner is going to be the starter. I would assume he is going to be.

17:37 ↗

But you have a really tricky situation in Jacksonville of, you guaranteed Nick Foles a lot of money. Are you really willing to already move away from that when he, I mean, Fools has lost the entire season really to the collarbone. I know he struggled when he came back, but he was coming off of a collarbone injury. Like Nick Foles might be the better option next year. It's very interesting too because, you know, Tom Coughlin's gone. Now you bring in J. Gruden to run the offense.

18:07 ↗

How committed will they be to Foles? Right. What do they see from Gardner in training camp? Does your fantasy league score bonus points for Jorts? Yeah. Jorts and swag. Jords and Swag he's going to score more than what he actually did last year. He finished it. He was a 15th most consistent quarterback. So that's nothing to be ashamed of as a rookie on a losing team. Especially a sixth round pick who wasn't supposed to be the starter. Outscoring Baker. Oh, gosh.

18:36 ↗

Despite starting 12 games, outscored Baker, fifth most rushing yards at the quarterback position so he could get out of the pocket and do some things with his legs. It was very mobile, fumbled a lot. Yeah. But so here's Nick Foll's contract situation. He's going to be, he's going to count $22 million against the salary, the cap. But if they want to get rid of him, then the dead cap would be $33.8 million. So Nick Foles will not be going anywhere in terms of being cut. And you can't.

19:06 ↗

trade that contract either. What I know about Jay Gruden, and again, it will be determined, right, with how Gardner progresses and what Foles does in preseason training camp. Gruden did make the tough decision of Cousins over Robert Griffin. Yeah, he did. But I'm afraid that that tough decision is that Foles is a more complete quarterback. Yeah, could be. As opposed to giving into the narrative potential, the...

19:34 ↗

potential narrative in Jacksonville. That's what I mean. That's what I don't think will distort Jay Gruden's mindset. He won't pick for fun? He will not pick for fun. Robert Griffin is more fun. Than Cunds? Than Cuck? Oh, heck yes. Kirk Cousins is not as fun as Robert Griffin. But he's a better quarterback. And I think that that's going to Lynn. It's like if I had to handicap it, I'm taking Nick Foles as the starter, making Gardner a very, you know, difficult proposition for fantasy owners.

20:03 ↗

certainly a hold in dynasty leagues. Daniel Jones, six pick of the draft, ridiculed by many, finished at 24, consistency rank was 29th, had these four blow-up weeks, basically. It was kind of like last year with Josh Rosen in Arizona, where one of the reasons I absolutely despised Josh Rosen is that with the amount of playing time he got, you had to have a game you'd see something, and you never saw anything.

20:31 ↗

Daniel Jones wasn't that. Daniel Jones in week three, second overall quarterback fantasy wise. In week eight, number one. In week 10, number two. In week 16, number one. Now, you didn't want to start them all the rest of the weeks of the year. No, it didn't work out. But you saw flashes. And, you know, you go into year two and do those four games of relevance for fantasy owners become, does that become eight? Does he become somebody that you're looking at as a streaming option? Yeah.

20:58 ↗

Daniel Jones is not going to be a late-round target for me, but for context of what he did, I mean, really in four games, because we just highlighted that he was very inconsistent. But he had the 10th best fantasy rookie season for a quarterback since 2011. So it's not like, I mean, he did something of significance. And he will go out there and he will air the ball out, get the team healthy, get Evan Engram.

21:27 ↗

actually working and Saquan Barkley functioning again. He's going to be a waiver wire is interesting. He's one of those guys where I'm not going to target him late to take my shot, so to speak. I would much rather take my shot on Matthew Stafford. Stafford's going to go late. Daniel Jones will probably be undrafted. But by the end of the year, if Daniel Jones improves enough and ends up as a top 12 quarterback on the season, it won't be shocking to me.

21:57 ↗

Yeah, yeah. And then you did have the variable this year, too, of Sequin's injury and coming back from it. So whether that's good or bad for him, whether he targets Sequin, which if he wants to boost his stats, he probably should, the way it worked out for Kyle Allen at times with Christian McCaffrey. You know, you had other quarterbacks potential-wise, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Locke, Will Greer. I don't think you need to talk about him.

22:24 ↗

Although Drewlock wants to use his legs more. If you promised me I never have to talk about Dwayne Haskins again. He looked better towards the end. I know he did and I hate that. Why? Give the guy a chance. Don't you at some point? We need him to be good for the sake of Terry McLaurant. Okay. All right. I'm behind it. Yeah. We need it. Scary Terry. And there's rumors that Jordan Reed will be. Dwayne the pain.

22:53 ↗

Jordan Reed will be cleared for 2020. Oh, come on. Come on. That's not being talked about, right? Yes, it is. No, it's not. Rule 86 has been completely taken off the books. You take it easy over there. Anybody who follows that rule ends up in pure misery. All right. Let's look at some running backs. How's that sound? Here's a stat for you since 2012. There have been at least two rookie running backs.

23:24 ↗

in the top 24 every single year. So that'll be a fun thing to keep in mind around draft time. Where these running backs end up, this past year it was Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs. And since 2011, the top 20 rookie seasons, 19 out of those 20 are from guys drafted in the first three rounds. Oh, I'm sorry, I'm looking at wide receiver. Let me pull up the running back numbers. The running back numbers are 17 of 20. We're drafted in the first three rounds.

23:54 ↗

Of those that fit that top 24 mold? Yes. That's impressive. And this past year was the first time we hadn't had a rookie since 2015 end up in the top 10. I mean, last year you had Sequin, obviously, is the running back two overall. The year before, you had four rookies in the top 12 with Camara, Hunt, Fournette, and McCaffrey.

24:17 ↗

This is an area where you can make a monster impact right away. We've talked about how hard it is to be a running back in the NFL and get that big next contract, unless your name's Derek Henry and you're some sort of outlier that deserves that big contract. But you can go draft a guy like Miles Sanders. In the second, third round, you can pick up a cream hunt and then have a huge impact for fantasy purposes. Josh Jacobs, to me, certainly would have ended up in the top 12 had he not had the injury and he missed.

24:48 ↗

three games. He officially missed three, missed, you know, more time than that because of the injury. He was, Josh Jacobs had a very, very solid season. Some were in fact upset that Josh Jacobs was not the offensive rookie of the year. He lost to Kyler Murray. But in those, in his 13 games, I mean, he was averaging 19 attempts and 88 rushing yards per game. And now moving forward for Josh Jacobs, what's?

25:17 ↗

Oh, I almost called him Oakland. What's Las Vegas? Oh, gosh. We've got to get used to that. What's Las Vegas? Oh, that feels. Are they going to? That feels really weird. I think they're going to roll the dice. Oh, get them out there in the passing game more often. Oh, goodness. But Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, neither of them are under contract. What are they going to do? And the big disappointment for Josh Jacobs was no targets. 27 targets. 20 catches on the year. For a player that.

25:47 ↗

shows out. Like his past catching profile in college is last year. I think he had 20 receptions. His final year in college. Like that's a huge number for the running back position. You should be utilizing Jacobs more in that role. The future is bright. And Josh Jacobs is one of my top dynasty running backs at the moment. He is certainly. He's really good as well. The running back of choice from this rookie class moving forward.

26:16 ↗

Some might really like Miles Sanders. It's very clearly Josh Jacobs to me. Like Miles Sanders, I think he's very good, but it won't be surprising to see three running backs in this year's draft class just automatically jump ahead of him in my dynasty rankings. Yeah, I don't disagree. There is a situation there in Philadelphia where I don't think.

26:43 ↗

you can bank on consistency at the running back position. Right. It doesn't make Miles Sanders any less talented, but situation matters quite a bit. It's going to matter for Josh Jacobs moving forward, and Miles Sanders is not going to give you consistency. He's 29th inconsistency on the year, even from Weeks 11 on where he kind of stepped up for the team. He was still 20th in consistency. He's going to touch the ball, but there is going to be...

27:11 ↗

You know, there are going to be more pass-catching weapons there than we saw this past year, and whether they want to give Miles Sanders the ball a lot compared to what we know Josh Jacobs will get. I mean, this was a heavy workload for Josh Jacobs in an injury-riddled year 242 carries. Right. Something we hadn't seen in college. Something that made people doubt whether Jacobs would get all of that first and second down work and whether that was really the intention of the team. But he is definitely the better player moving forward. I mean, he was the intention. I mean, his pace.

27:41 ↗

for 16 games was almost 300 carries. They were using him as a workhorse. But forgive me if I'm blotting this from my memory, but wasn't it last offseason that they signed Isaiah Crowell and then Crowell was injured for the year? They had to have been leading into the season. I think you're correct. I think you are correct, yes. So what we saw from Jacobs. Now, the reason for an Isaiah Crowell in that offense was,

28:09 ↗

to acclimate Jacobs to a big workload. He got backed into it. I don't think they're going to be positioning themselves to share that workload once you've seen what Jacobs can do in the future. So I'm not worried about them bringing in another high-profile guy, but they will bring in. Look, you said those two guys are leaving. They're not under contract currently. I don't know if the Raiders are going to resign them. Yeah. And the likelihood is that if they don't, they'll bring somebody else into compliment Jacobs, obviously. You don't run.

28:39 ↗

one running back active on game day. We're good. Especially a guy that's been hurt and missed three of the last four weeks. So Jacobs definitely like him more. We talked about both those guys on truth. What about some players we didn't talk about as much? David Montgomery, let's talk about him. Yeah. Fantasy owners need to make a decision. They need to figure out what to do with David Montgomery. Like do bail out? Right. One of the trappings of the...

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