Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - NFC South Breakdown, News, Mailbag

But I just look at the way that he trended during the second half of last year. He ran more. He ran more by the Red Zone. DeAngelo Williams, when you get down near the goal line, won't be there. And so I think he's going to vulture even more touchdown. So I do like Cam this year. But I don't agree with the comment about the investment with Newton, giving him a big contract and pulling him back. That's like paying money for an investment that you don't use at all.

I mean, it's like he is that guy. You're paying... It's a little worse investment to pay him to stand in the pocket if you've ever seen him, just throw the ball. Well, you've seen it before. You've seen people get paid and... Cabernet got paid. He's going to run all up and down the field this year. They're saying that. They're saying they want him to run more, which is smart. And hopefully that's the new trend of the NFL. But like Donovan McNabb, you know, back in the day, he was...

You know, they tried to force him to stay in the pocket more. And so I can see the aspect of that. But I agree with myself and you, Andy, that he's going to be running more this year. I know that I'm trying to cut Mike off repeatedly so that he can never get into whatever he's going to say about Cam Newton. I just have one thing I want to say. Let me say this before you go. Cam Newton is number 11 on your board and he's number eight on my board. Just throwing it out there.

And I don't know where he is on yours, Jay. I'll pull it up. I think he might be a little higher. So clearly, I don't think he's a terrible fantasy quarterback. My problem, my biggest problem with Cam Newton is that he booms. Yep. He was a quarterback won only five times last year. In 2013, he was a top three overall quarterback, but only six times was he in the top 12. That is not the kind of consistency that I need from my quarterback position. We need to, that metric is so important.

And you bring it up over and over again because this happened with Andy Dalton a few years back. He was number three overall at the end of the season. And he didn't win people fantasy leagues. No. He won people games here and there. Right. But this consistency factor, what did you say, Cam Newton? How many times did he finish as a top 12 quarterback last year? Five times last year. Out of...

16 games. No, he didn't play the full season. 14. So I went back to when he was an actual top three quarterback, and only six times was he in the top 12. Yeah, he's a good best ball guy if you're playing in a best ball league. Oh, yeah. I'd be all over that. Yeah. And to answer the question, I've got him seven. Okay. I actually have Breeze right ahead of Newton, seven and eight is the two guys that we've talked about so far. So let's talk about the wide receiver core. They do have...

question marks there. None of us are very high on Calvin Benjamin. He was the only game in town last year, and he really, you know, he performed fantasy-wise, but he wasn't efficient. He wasn't productive from a real wide receiver standpoint, and so now you bring in a Devin Funches. You have Jericho Kotry there. You brought Ted Gin back in, and you have a couple other guys. You got Boykin coming over from Green Bay. Olson's still there. And Olson's still there, and, you know, Mike Tolbert is there.

So, I mean, how do you lay out these guys? Is Cotry still there? Yes. And he is still playing in the NFL? Mm-hmm. Yeah. He was my man. I know when he was with the Jets. Cotry was like, I had like a five-year period where he was on my team every year, but that was about 50 years ago. I didn't even know what fantasy football was. I think I was just, I just got out of preschool and Cotry had started his first year. So here's the problem with the efficiency that is Calvin Benjamin.

Last year, he had 145 targets. That puts him in the top five. Top five of targets, his final stat line, he had just over 1,000 yards. The problem with that, all the other top five guys, top five target guys, had over 1,500 yards. That is a 500-yard difference. 11 drops, a 51% catch rate. He averages 2.4 yards after the catch. So he catches it and does nothing.

That he, where he has caught the ball. He's a big boy. Is where he is going to lie. So, and we're talking to, I just, I just really enjoyed that statement. Where he catches the ball, that is where he shall lie. He will lie there. So 2.4 yards after catch, of the top five target guys, Antonio Brown was the second lowest with 4.8 after the catch. So the guys who are getting the top targets are elite fantasy, elite.

real-life receivers, and Kelvin Benjamin is just not there. That's the entire reason Kelvin Benjamin had value was because there was no one else to throw the ball. Garbage time. And that's why I think Devin Funches... He'll still score touchdowns. I think Devin Funches matters. I think he matters because it shows that you got Greg Olson and Kelvin Benjamin. That's really it. I know we named a lot of the other guys, but as far as who you're looking to... I mean, you have to put targets somewhere else, but I think...

The leftovers, and I think that some of those that went his way, actually go to Funchus and where he's being drafted, which is just a throwaway. I mean, you might be able to get him off of waivers in certain leagues. Probably will. I think he's possibly worth it. All right, we can't linger too long on Carolina, but I do want to take a couple minutes and talk about Jonathan Stewart because he's a guy that I actually have at number 12, and Mike, you have him at number 15, so we both think he could be. You're higher on Joe.

In a standard league. In a standard league, I'm higher. That's good stuff. I didn't realize that. You have Mark Ingram ahead of him right now. Oh, that's changing. I know. I was going to say, that's got to be updated. Yours haven't changed since. You're about a week old. About. About. Sorry. All right. So let's talk about Jonathan Stewart. Is he, if he's healthy, what is he? A monster. A total monster. Jonathan Stewart.

While it is a long time ago back in 2009 when dinosaurs roamed the earth, he had over 1,000 yards, 10 touchdowns. The hindrance for the Carolina run game has been that there's two guys there, for fantasy purposes, that there's been two guys there, two lead dogs. DeAngelo Williams is gone. So when you take a look at Jonathan Stewart, when DeAngelo Williams went out last year, completely out.

The final four games, he averaged 23 carries and 100 yards, and that includes the Atlanta blowout where they didn't need him to do anything at all. In the playoffs, he had 37 carries for almost 200 yards, 5.2 yards per carry. That includes a game against the Seahawks, where he had a great game. So I see humongous things coming for Jonathan Stewart, pending health. So if that's...

If that's the case, and they obviously ran the ball a lot, seventh in the league last year, with who they had. If that's the case, do you draft him and just draft major pain later? Major pain. Cameron artist pain later, and just go for the glory with him because, you know, somebody emailed me and asked about players like him, and I said, you know, you basically need to presume health. I mean, that's what I do. I guess I shouldn't say you have to. You play how you want to play. If you're afraid of a guy getting hurt, don't draft Aryan Foster, don't draft.

Jonathan Stewart. But for me, I presume health because I'm looking for best possible upside. And I think that's what NFL teams do when they're drafting these guys out of the draft too. They, you know, okay, this guy was hurt for the second half of his year. And so they get him at a value. So Jonathan Stewart's a value right now if he can be a monster. And they didn't, though you like Cameron Artis Payne, he wasn't a high draft pick. They didn't add anybody of note. Right. The problem with Jonathan Stewart's

upside. Let's say he's healthy and he plays 14, 15, 16 games. He's not good at scoring touchdowns in Carolina's offense because Mike Tolbert and more so, Cam Newton vulture the touchdowns. So if I knew he was going to play 16 games, I'm not sure he would crack into my top 12, but he would be close. And right now he's being drafted, what, probably in the 21st or so running back? I can look that up.

The only thing I have to say of Jonathan Stewart is Cameron Artis Payne. All right, let's move on to Tampa Bay. Pretty much the worst offensive team in the league last year. They were 30th in total yards. They were in the bottom everywhere else. 29th in scoring, 29th in rushing, 25th in passing. But obviously they've been overhauled on the offensive side to a degree. They brought in James Winston. He's...

going to have the reins. He's going to be handed the opportunity. They have two outstanding wide receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. And they have a running back court that I don't know what to do with. Oh, man. I could not agree more. Other than want to just, you know, kind of push him off to the corner with a stick and just ignore them because I don't want to think about them at all. One, because I don't know who's doing what. And two, because whoever does what.

is probably going to stink at what they're doing? Yes. That is accurate. Thoughts on Tampa. Where do you want to go with Tampa Bay? Well, we can start with the running backs. Good. Teach us, the hit man. Stay away. Okay. You heard it here first. So Doug Martin last year only played 11 games under 500 yards, 3.7. We found somebody worse than Joyne Bell. And his name is Doug Martin. Charles Sims. We found somebody worse than Doug Martin.

His name is Charles Sims. Was it like 2.8 yards? 2.8 yards per carry. The only interesting guy to me was Bobby Rainey. Bobby Rainey. He fumbled too much. Yes. Bobby Rainier came in in week two and put up 144 yards against the Rams. The Rams who had just held Peterson to a very quiet game. And he was electric, three for 30 in the air. And then week three, he completely fumbled his way out of the job.

And by that, I mean, the old school ridiculous. The guy fumbles once, so you throw him to the bench, you completely destroy his confidence. You're a big fan of that. No. That's your coaching style, right? Because it's absolutely ludicrous to crush a man for one mistake. And then when he come to win, he had no choice. Lovie Smith had no choice but to bring him back in. And he fumbled again. You go, oh, that's strange. The guy whose confidence I just destroyed wasn't ready to play in.

Another game. Wasn't ready to get back in the game because I had destroyed him mentally. No coach is going to say after his quarterback throws an interception. Yeah, you're off the field. Get out of here, you bum. He's going to say you keep throwing that ball, man. Yeah, I do not understand that mentality at all. Let me talk about James Winston for a second. Speaking of interceptions. Well, it's still hard to project that. I'm going to say right now, it's hard to project to the NFL perfectly because of the fact that he did everything.

for Florida State. Yeah, I guess the only thing I'm projecting is he had to win the game. Rookie quarterbacks throw a lot of interceptions. Yeah, you want to give me Jamie Smithston versus Marietta. Go ahead. Winston's going to throw more. But he does have a better wide receivers to throw to. And guys that are big and can go get it. Winston can stay alive in the pocket. He's got a very strong arm. He has some opportunities. In a Dynasty League, I'm drafting who?

Who do you think? Or Winston or Marriota? Oh, I'm actually really curious about this. I think you're drafting Marietta. I am. And I want a water bet. How do we water bet that? What is this like a five year? What? We might be dead in five years. Oh, year one? No, year one. Oh, absolutely. You want to do? Just fantasy points? Head up. Just fantasy points. Yep. Wait, wait, wait. Two for one. I got to get in on this. Oh, who side are you on? I'm on the Mariotta, man. Oh, man. You want it? Three-way water bet. Whoa. Let's do it.

Waterbet. We got two over here just to put it on the air. Monaget Splash. Mike and myself have Marcus Marriota and Fantasy Points over James Winston. Yep. So you're banking on Mike Evans. I am banking on Vincent Jackson, actually. Okay. It's not a bad bet. Well, they put some offensive line talent around Winston. They're obviously building around him. Vincent Jackson's a big bounceback candidate.

In terms of fantasy relevance, those wide receivers are probably the guys that you want to pay attention to out of Tampa, no one else. I saw a stat and I forget where I saw it or I would give credit to it. Maybe one of you guys saw it. I just saw it today. But it was that Vincent Jackson led the league in poor targets. Uncatchable targets, he had a wide margin the most. That's not surprising.

Yeah, and one of the things about him, too, is he had a really low touchdown total, which is just abnormal for him. Abnormal. That happens to guys from time to time where they, you know, touchdowns are hard to predict. Like the Calvin-Jonson, yeah, he got dragged down in the one, eight times or something like that. You just can't control that type of thing. Yeah, Vincent Jackson was still in the top 10 for targets, even if...

So a lot of targets were bad. Maybe they get better. I took them in a bunch. I took Vincent Jackson and two of my NFL tens because of the value on him. Yeah, and I've said to where Evans is going. I've said this a lot in way early off season right after the draft. But the fact that rookie quarterbacks, real good rookie quarterbacks over the last six, seven, eight years, they come in and they target the veteran over the young stud. And that's what he's got there. He's got a veteran and a young stud. Do you hear what he said there? He said real good rookie quarterbacks.