Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - NFC South Breakdown, News, Mailbag

They invested in Jennings. And they invested in Andre Williams with a draft pick. And I think all three of those guys, I mean, in the league anymore, he's always been a guy. Coughlin's always been a guy that throws two or three running backs out there, whether it's, you know, Jacobs and Bradshaw and, you know, Andre Brown for a while and those guys. But this is good news because we didn't know what Williams was until we saw this report, whether he would even sniff the goal line. See, I feel like this is bad news. For who?

For the shot innings. For the group. Yeah. Just because there was very little value to Williams. And now it's like, well, he's going to get the touchdown. So we're just going to spread all the value around to where nobody's worth anything. Yeah. And I'm at the point where I would take the flyer, the late late flyer like my last pick on Andre Williams. I'd all try it. His rookie year, can he get any worse? They're going to be a good offense. And there have been guys like that, the Lindale Whites of the world, who actually had fantasy value.

Just playing the goal line, playing the occasional snap, and because of the Rashad Jennings factor, because there's no way Vareen's carrying a full-time load there if Jennings went down. So, all right, let's move on to the NFC. South. Let's get divisional. I am, that was nice. Thank you. I am really excited to talk about this first team because I think there are a lot of opinions out there about them, and that's the New Orleans Saints.

They were the number one offense last year with 411 yards per game, the number three passing offense, and the number nine scoring offense. And the world is now turned upside down on Drew Brees. Okay? So let's talk about this. Jimmy Graham was not the only reason that Drew Brees was the most accurate quarterback over the last five years. That's true. That's true. And Sean Payton is still there. And Kenny Stills surely was not the only reason they were the number one.

offense last year. So why, is it just fear? Nope. Okay, tell me why you, are you down on Drew Breeze? I am down on Drew Breeze. I am probably more down on Drew Breeze than anybody else that's here. I have him ranked right now as my number... I'm gonna fall over. I have him ranked at number 12. He is still a QB1. Oh, that's hot. That's hot take. But he is down. So here's the reason why I have Drew Breeze down.

Drew Breeze is, in my opinion, a Hall of Fame quarterback. I think he is, he's played for two different teams and been amazing, and I think he's great. But we are getting skewed by watching two of the greatest ever in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady play past where they should. Drew Breeze is 36, and if you look at his numbers last year, he had, what, 33 touchdowns?

I think it was 33 touchdowns last year, I believe he threw. Ten of those were to Jimmy Graham. How in the world going to a run-first offense, going to losing Jimmy Graham, your clear red zone target, losing Kenny Stills, losing a lot of the weapons that you had, how in the world is he going to put up the fantasy points that are relevant that take him up from 33? So I say I've got him slated for, I think, 4,600 yards and 30 touchdowns.

Which puts him number 12. He's 36. He's on the second half of his career. And I think from a fantasy only perspective, I still think he's a great quarterback. I think he's going to help the Saints a lot. I think he's done. I think you're not going to see him as one of those upper echelon guys anymore. And when you draft him in the fifth or sixth round, I think he's not going to serve you for what you could have got there. That's my take.

And it's a darn good one. I think you made the case as perfectly as you could in that amount of time as to why people are questioning Drew Breeze. There is still going to be value for the new receivers getting the ball from Drew Breeze. Totally agree. Mike, did you have anything to add on Breeze or should we move on to talk about some of these wide receivers? Just real quick. I'm not super concerned about Jimmy Graham.

The New Orleans Saints have proven that they can find guys who can catch the ball and late in the draft. Colston was a seventh round pick. Jimmy Graham, I believe, was a fourth round pick. They can find people. Sean Payton has a knack for finding pass catchers. So that's not what I'm concerned about at all. Okay. Let's talk about the wide receiver corca's...

Like I said, we've got a lot of emails. People wonder why we're not as high on cooks as other people are. Mike, I think you and I both have them below kind of the bar that's been set out there in a lot of the consensus rankings. So let's talk about why. I can tell you right now, part of it just has to do with the fact that I know the ball will get spread around and there are, you know, Colston is still there. When they go three wide, there's going to be the emergence of either a Nicktoon or a Josh Morgan. And those are two guys that I think.

Could be drafted late in the draft, much like Kenny Stills was last year and could have some sleeper value. So put those on your sleeper list. Nick Toon is slotted to be that starting outside receiver. That's what people don't understand. In three wide receivers, three wide receiver sets, Tune will be lined up and he'll be playing wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints and a Sean Payton offense with Drew Brees week in and week out. But Brandon Cooks is coming off an injury, burst down to the scene with a lot of targets.

What's the story with Cook's? So for Cooks, where I'm concerned is about his role in the offense. So Cooks played 10 games, 70 targets, had a decent stat line that if you extrapolated out, he would have had a pretty good year. Where it's interesting for Cooks, the first five games, he averaged eight and a half targets and just over seven and a half yards per catch. The final five games.

Everything completely turned around. He dropped to five and a half targets a game, and his yards per catch jumped to over 13.5. Generally, that's a good thing for fantasy, though. Not with the targets, though. He still caught enough balls to be fantasy relevant. To be fantasy relevant, but is he worth going in the fourth round when he's only getting five and a half targets a game? He could be, but what I think I hear there isn't so much. I think what you hear there is the transition that the team made halfway through the season.

Because you went past heavy and then you started transitioning into, you know, Ingram got hurt for a few games. And once he was back, you saw the transition from, you know, what Jason was talking about. They're becoming a more run heavy team. They brought in C.J. Spiller. They drafted Andres Pete in the first round tackle. They brought in Max Unger by trading Jamie Graham away. So their offensive lines rebuilt. Spiller's there. Kyrie Robinson's still there. Ingram's there.

So to me it's not talent. I mean, I think if... No, no, no. But my concern with Brandon Cooks is that he's going to become Deshaun Jackson. I think he's going to be... Hit and miss play. But isn't he lining up in the slot? He's... He's just going everywhere. What they were doing with him in the first half of the year was they were pretty much going Tavon Austin with him, like just trying to figure out... Get him the ball in space. And it wasn't working. So they switched him out.

And when he went down, that's when Kenny Stills erupted. So to me, are they playing the same role? Because here's the question that I have with the Saints for, because I don't see great value in Breeze, but I actually do see good value in those catching passes from Breeze because they've lost so many assets. I think it's going to be spread around less than it was last year and actually go to help guys. So Jimmy Graham was 125 targets.

That's gone. Kenny Stills was 83 targets. That's gone. And Pierre Thomas and Travarez Cadet were 100 targets combined. That's a lot of targets. A ton of targets. And you've got to go... I don't think it's going to change that much total target-wise anyway. Me too. But where that distribution goes, on a 16-game average, if you just extrapolate it out, and I realized that it changed first half to second half, you had 110 targets for cooks.

that can only go up, assuming no injury. So I think that he's a guy that's going to get close to 150 targets this year personally. That's a lot. And so if that happens, I think that there is an opportunity there. And I think the other guy that's going to soak these up is C.J. Spiller. If you think Brandon Cooks is getting 150 targets from the most accurate quarterback in the league, he should be your... I've got him at 140 is what I've got. So he should be in your top.

He's outside of it. In a PPR. And that's another thing. I think that he is a guy that should be getting, personally, I think that he should be getting more looks from as a PPR changer rather than, you know, we're always talking about, you know, Landry and these guys. But I don't see him getting a ton of touchdowns. So. He scored last year, didn't he? Yeah. I think he only got three touchdowns. So, wait, how many targets do you have him for? 140. That would put him top 10 targets. Yeah, that's exactly what I think.

It could happen. CJ Spiller's in the mix now. Let me ask you this, guys. Mike, in a PPR league, I'm drafting who first, Mark Ingram or C.J. Spiller? Jason. Absolutely. Half-point PPR league. Mark Ingram or C.J. Spiller? I would draft C.J. Spiller because he's still going behind Mark Ingram, and the value is better. I see them as identical and a half. Planned a flag. I can't plan it right now because I've been quite high on Ingram.

And I'm pulling back a little bit after today's show. So I, in a half point, it's either way, but I would probably still lean Ingram because of the touchdowns. All right, I got one more, one more diatribe to bring you from the New Orleans Saints. And it was a short run for you, Josh. Josh Hill, the hype train. I got on, I got off, as did many others that may still be on. But the reality is,

Josh Hill is not going to replace Jimmy Graham. He is not Jimmy Graham, and he is currently number two on the depth chart behind Ben Watson. Right. And so while you may have Kyle Rudolph goal line production from him occasionally, I really do think Ben Watson's going to. This is, this is, Jeremiah Finley leaving the Packers and a couple guys filling in for Jimmy Graham. I think that's really what it's going to come down to. And I don't really see any compelling arguments against that. I mean, do you guys, are you all over the Josh Hill train?

I was never really on it. Yeah. But yeah, you can't be now with the news on Ben Watson playing in front of him. Jason, you mentioned a while back to ignore the good news. Yeah. Ignore the coaches. Pay more attention to the bad news that comes out of camp. Everything coming out of camp is roses. When you hear negative reports, that's when it's like, ooh, that's got to be real.

All right, let's talk about the Carolina Panthers. They were the middle of the road offense. That was good. Did Alan Robinson show up? Is that him? He's far more monstrous than that. They were the seventh best rushing offense last year. They were the number 19 passing offense. They added a whole lot of players to the offensive side of the ball. They drafted Devin Funches. They drafted a couple of tackles.

Or I'm sorry, they drafted one tackle and they brought in Michael Ower, which might not be, might not qualify. You know what, Mike? I think you might get blindsided this year. You know who's going to get blindsided? Cal Newton, he's going to die. They drafted Cameron Artist Payne. You're going to need three tight ends on that side. There's only three words I need to say on the Carolina Panthers guys. That's Cameron Artis Pain. Oof.

Sorry. It's all right. You made your case. You wanted him last year. And let me go on record as saying I was opposed to drafting him in our PPR mock draft. But I had forgotten we had Jonathan Stewart. So in that situation, I think you're right on the money. And what better backup can you get on a run first offense than a rookie behind Jonathan Stewart? Than Major Payne? Yeah. Ooh, is that an official new nickname here? I just threw it out. All right. All right.

inaccuracy monster. That is Cam Newton. I actually looked up accuracy ratings, and, yeah, he wasn't good. Oh, really? He was down there. Wait, wait, what? I think he was 27th, 28th in the league. Hmm. Hmm. I would love to tell you that's because he had no one to throw to. I'm going to give that about 3% on his accuracy rating, which probably only brings him up to about a 58%. Hmm. Because...

Cam Newton, if you watch him on the field, he leaves so many plays on the field. Now, he's still a fantasy producer because he runs the ball and he does make plays. But, man, it's really hard to own him and watch him backfoot throw down the field and miss a guy that's wide open by four feet over the top of his head. You can't blame it on the receivers because Derek Anderson threw for a 67% completion percentage. Wait, wait, what? And Cam Newton threw for a...

58%. No, no, no. I had no idea any of these stats. Yeah. I know we had our little off. Cam Newton's still putting up fantasy points. I don't think he's a very good accurate, you know, quarterback. But he's definitely going to run. And I think he's going to run even more this year. I think with DeAngelo Williams out, I think he's going to run. I know you're worried about the big contract, right, that the coaches are going to pull him back.