Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Fantasy Fallers, Questions & Answers

fully healthy yet. And he didn't, his difference in yard per carry and success in the full-time role was hugely different. I mean, you have some of those stats in front of you, I'm sure, where his yards per carry plummeted, struggled with injury. So he is better suited for a complimentary committee type role. Agreed? Oh, it absolutely agreed. And where last year he had 201 carries for only 660 yards, which he...

I don't have that particular stat of the, he got an insane amount more carries, but only had six more yards. So the workload of the volume did not translate into production. And just something I wanted to point out for people who don't remember, Richard Mendenhall was the big back when Ellington was a rookie. Two years ago. Two years ago when Ariens took over the Cardinals. Now, Mendenhall.

had a horrific average. And Mendenhall ended 2.17, 687, and 8. That 8 is the important number. Eight touchdowns. Mendenhall got the red zone looks, and he got the goal line work. Even after week 8, that's when Ellington really got going. It was after week 8. He was still getting 14 carries a game. So that's the kind of work you want from a running back. Now, David Johnson's coming in.

The ESPN Cardinal reporter. Have you started your David Johnson tattoo yet? Are you putting him right next to Jeremy Hill on your chest? I've got my artist sketching out some concepts for me. I know you're trying so hard to not be a homer with David Johnson, but unbiased, you love him. Yeah, I just, I think the opportunity is there. And because I'm here in Arizona and I see just all the news and see what Andre Ellington is and what he.

should be. I just think David Johnson's going to take the role of the big back where most of the stuff I'm reading is David Johnson's not a great inside runner, all this stuff. I mean, he has the measurables. I feel like there's some coaching things that can improve him where what I was saying, the ESPN Cardinal reporter already says he's probably going to get the red zone work. And I said, yeah, no, no duh. Mendenhall got the red zone work.

A funny little thing for me is it's really, really slight, really small steps. But if you notice Roto World, which we love Roto World, is great source for news. Whenever they have a blurb on him, it's slightly getting more favorable. For David Johnson? Yeah. Yeah. When he got drafted, it said, oh, Ellington's still the guy. Then the Cardinals are speaking up, well.

Maybe David Johnson will be okay, but Ellington's still the guy, the Red Zone news, and more news, they're like, okay, David Johnson might have some fantasy value. Yeah, it's starting to change. Right now, Ellington's being drafted as a top 24 guy. He definitely could finish at the back half of the RB2, but I'm not projecting in there. Let me ask you a couple of questions here. Isaiah Crowell or Andre Ellington? Oh, Crowell?

All right. I suppose. CJ Spiller or Andre Ellington. Are those pretty much the same category there? Yeah, that's the same type. Rashad Jennings or Andre Ellington. Are we all in the same, kind of the same category of guys? Yeah, yeah, we're at the same level. Geo Bernard. Do you like Geo more than Ellington? I think, uh, I might go Ellington. What about T.J. Yeldon. T.J. Yelden, yeah. Yeah. So right now, obviously this is going to change. Yeldon's going to move up. Right now, Yelden is...

Three rounds behind Ellington. Yeah, he'll move up. And the last thing I wanted to say on that was 2012, Arian's back, because he was the temporary coach for the Colts, his back, who he had to use, Vic Ballard. I don't know what the news on Vic Ballard was when he was coming out, but he finished as the 25th RB in fantasy. So Bruce Ariens can still get production out of guys who we think are not.

who shouldn't produce. Yeah. Where David Johnson should produce. He's an offensive coach that has made, I mean, he turned John Brown into fantasy relevance last year. There's a lot of guys that are going to contribute in that offense, but not at a, probably not at a running back one pace, anybody on that team. Right. So let's talk about Tom Brady a little bit. Oh, tomorrow. He's on our follower list because when a guy suspended for four games of your 12 games season, that's a third of the season.

Unless is that correct math there? Third of the fantasy season. Yeah, third of the fantasy season. So I want to talk a little bit about what that does to Brady's rank. Who do you take ahead of Brady now? Nearly everybody. Everybody? No. Do you take Romo ahead of Brady? Yes. Do you take Stafford? Yeah. Eli Manning? Yeah. Do you take Rivers? Yeah. Do you take Jimmy Garapolo? That was a joke.

He's only playing four games. You don't take Jimmy Grappolo ahead of Brady. But yeah, Brady's dropping down a little bit. And a lot of bit for me. So is he a value? Does he turn into a value? Maybe. Here's some interesting stats. Because you have, okay, here's one thing real quick. You have to take two quarterbacks if you draft Tom Brady. Because he's not going to play. Yeah, that's true. You know, I think his suspension is going to cut down. But either way, if you are drafting him, you're taking another spot for a quarterback, right?

Yeah, you have to play quarterback the first week. Unless you're just punting the entire week one, which I do not recommend. I'm going to play a kicker in that spot. But, so here's some strange things about Thomas Brady last year. It was a wild roller coaster of events for his fantasy production. And people seem to remember just the middle of it. When his stats were inflated? Yes. I don't. Yeah.

Week 1 through 4, weeks 1 through 4, I should say. We thought he was going to get benched. 9.32 points is what he averaged. Weeks 5 through 9, the light came through the clouds, the choir's saying. There's Tom! And Tom Brady averaged 27.2 points a week. A disparity. Now, how did he close the year? Weeks 10 through 16, he averaged just under 17.

So way back down. That's what you call a tricky sandwich. That's who I think Brady is. The 17. He's closer to that than the 27 to me. Now, people might ask, well, game flow, you know, that changes things. Maybe his attempts were way different. The first portion I talked about, weeks 1 through 4, 35 attempts per game. Weeks 5 through 9, 39 attempts per game.

Weeks 10 through 16, 39 attempts per game. So it's really hard to quantify what exactly changed for him. Part of that is, I'll tell you. I mean, I'm going to pull it out. I didn't think about this before I saying it, but Legerat Blunt was signed. Okay, he was brought in. That offense, that's the one thing that happens in New England in general is you go from one game where they're, you know, he's throwing it a bunch.

to another game where the game playing is short passes and running game, and it gets mixed up. And so you have that variable with him, and now you've got four games off the schedule. Yeah, and Brandon LaFelle started emerging later in the season. And Granckev got healthy and played better. But how do you explain the end of the year then? I mean, LaGarrett Blunt wasn't taking everything. No. There was the Jonas Gray game where he ran. He ran it's 60 times. 17's not bad. But it's pedestrian. It's, that's, you can find 17 points on.

Under your couch cushion for the quarterback position. Tom Brady is a guy who... Yeah, Cutler was under there. I found... I just found... Cutler was under... Hey, guys. Watch his throw. Let's go to the bleachers. So, Tom Brady... But Tom Brady is usually a guy who people have to draft really early because they're still in love with the name of Tom Brady. Yep. Where the past two years, last year he finished 11th, 2013, he finished 17th. I mean...

Is that a trend? I think the best fantasy years are behind Brady. Maybe I'm alone in that, but I don't really want to take him for fantasy. Yeah, yeah. So that's why he's dropping a little bit. Obviously, the four-game suspension hurts, but he's a little inconsistent. He has a little bit of that. I hate to compare it, but where the end-of-the-year numbers are high, like Dalton was or Stafford, but you get those dud games.

Or the games that were, you know, the beginning of the season, literally people asked Bill Belichick, mind you, they won the Super Bowl. They asked him, oh, well, do you have to think about benching Tom? Yeah. Remember he came out and just laid an egg against Kansas City on that Monday night? Oh, that was amazing. I know, why is it that watching New England lose is satisfying a lot? Like very... Because they win. That is... Yeah, they're the Yankees. So...

Okay, so let's move on. This last guy, you had to talk me into putting on this list. Yeah. Which I'm, I was telling Jason today, I feel like I'm the advocate for, I'm like the hero to the old guy. I'm the hero to the productive. Last year it was Marshall Lynch, right? Oh, March on Lynch, he's going to break down. Look at those, that old man out there. And I came, and what did I say? I said, no, stop. And now I'm doing that this year with three guys.

Frank Gore? Okay? Mm-hmm. You know? But Frank Gore has been... 64 straight starts, 1,100 plus. Frank Gore has been great. Yeah, and guess where he's getting drafted? Not in the great range. I'm just saying, as we go through these guys. Okay, Frank Gore is great. Marshall Lynch was last year. Great. He's been great for four years. I got you. I know what you're setting up here. Jeremy Macklin's another guy that... I do need to go out there and let everybody know, because somebody wrote on Twitter, they're like, I can't believe Andy's man-crushed with Jeremy Maclin. No, no, no, no.

I'm not in love with Jeremy Macklin, okay? Just because I think he can catch a thousand yards at the wide receiver position does not mean I'm in love with him. I just like him more than Alan Robinson, Mike Wright here, who puts Macklin at the 47 position like a crazy person. And so I have to bet that. I have to come to the defense of Jeremy Macklin. And so now he's my like, now I've got to buy a jersey or something. And so another guy on that list for me is Joach Bell.

Because you are on the Abdullah Express, as you said. Hashtag we're leaving the station. You're all aboard. Absolutely. Amir Abdullah. So I don't even know how to start this discussion on Joach Bell. First of all, the first thing we can say is what, let's see if a child could spot the difference between those three examples. Frank Gore, great. Marshaun Lynch, great art. Joyick Bell. He's okay. All right.

I don't agree. I think he's really good. How can you think 3.9 is really good? What's a yard per carry for a guy that runs it from the one yard line into the end zone? What does he get on that? Carry? I believe one. Okay. What's his yards per carry on all of his touchdown runs from the one? So if he only gets carries from the one yard line, then I'm okay with that. His value is not just his yards per carry. He's meant to be, they like him as that, grind him down. He's got hands.

He gets into the end zone. And guess what? You say he's not great. Well, he outperformed Frank Gore last year. Gore was the 16th rank running back, and Joyick Bell was the 14th rank running back last year. And he's always had competition. Okay, I'm making my argument, and he's in our fallers, right? And the reason he is is because right now he's getting drafted around the 18th range. And I see him more in the 2021 range, but I'm still defending him. Okay.

Because I don't think you bring a rookie in like Abdullah who has skills that are more like Reggie Bush's than they are Joyke Bells, and he takes over. Now, your opinion is that halfway through the year, Joyc Bell's relevance is going to go away. It will go greatly down, where you have Amir Abdullah, who these things interest me where of running backs in the draft this year, he had the highest spark score, which is SPARQ, which is a...

formula that they use of speed, power, agility, reaction, quickness, and then weight is factored into it. Oh, no, no, go. Sorry, that was disrespectful. So you don't like extreme athletes on your team? You like George Bell. No, no, no, I just like giving guys fantasy stats. I haven't proven it. Go ahead. So, and he ranked in the top 95 percentile. Now, I will absolutely admit that that's not everything.

The spark score is not everything. However, there was a team last year that had a running back who they said, he's the guy, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Then they went and drafted a running back in the second round. That running back's name was Jeremy Hill. So you're comparing Jake Bell to Geo? I'm comparing the situation.

Right, I understand that. And it's possible. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm not going to go out and say Joyc Bell's guaranteed. But I think he has a role to fill. And if they had gone out, I told Jason this earlier, if they had gone out and drafted, even Jay Ajay, okay, Matt Jones from Washington, one of the more between-the-tackle-oriented runners, I'd been more concerned. But Joyce skit in the goal line. Joyke was the 14th ranked running back with 860 yards, with 223 carries with 34 receptions last year. That doesn't seem that hard to me.