Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - 10 Things to Remember from 2016

Arizona, Kansas City, and Denver were all in the top five in consecutive years. So if you need to make a pick, what I'm saying is grab that D, then grab that kicker. Oh, I wouldn't use your last two picks. Yeah, and I would still highly recommend not going in early because every defense comes up against bad matchups and you don't want to play them. You don't want to be locked in. You go to the waiver wire and it's just you can live there. You can live on the waiver wire for your defenses. Now to continue what I was talking about a little bit earlier, this is.

Number six. Number six. Jason. Number six? Thank you. I didn't know we needed, we needed the mark of the beast here? What's going on? I'm Ron Burgundy. I didn't know you were waiting on me. I said you're going, I'm not number six. No, I am. I wanted, I just wanted you to be involved. Yeah, that is weird, Mike. You should have skipped six. All right, all right. So number six here. Well, speaking of Mark of the Beast.

We're talking about busted data here. So I guess maybe there is a correlation. And I want to, so I've done, I always keep up my bust chart here as keeping track of, you know, what's happening for each of the top positions. And this was a little bit different this year, as you may have noticed, because it was kind of the year of the running back. Four, only four of the top 12 drafted running backs busted.

compared to six of the top 12 wide receivers busted. This is the first year in, I've got data all the way back to 2012. This is the first time that the wide receivers have ever out busted. Oh, no. But Mike, what about ZeroRB? Wow, that was the tiniest little voice of public opinion. I'm not here to debunk or fight against the ZeroRB.

Truthers, I know that there is value in seeking anti-fragility and that kind of stuff. I get the argument. I totally get the argument. But I just think that, as I talked about, that the top-end running backs are where I want to be. But my point for this is, I don't want you to swing the pendulum too far. Now, when I'm saying, I take the running backs early in the first round, right? When it's the back of the first and...

Eight running backs have been selected. I'm not going to be a dummy and just say, well, I got to take a running back here. It's the rule when Antonio Brown is still on the board because he's still the best player available. So I guess you could say I'm just don't lock yourself in because of last year's results, right? You have to be smart about these things. You have to be water. You have to roll with the situation and understand that.

Just because the running backs provide such a value to your team, if they've already been depleted, if that top tier has already been depleted, don't abandon the wide receivers just because you had more busting on that side. It's a healthy reminder, right? Because this happened last year. Right. Wouldn't you say? I mean, wouldn't you say this happened? Yes, and that's why I'm bringing it up right now. And if you had followed this advice last year, you probably would have had a top tier running back.

Right. That would have been your, you wouldn't have had two. You wouldn't have, yeah, you could have had two. I mean, like there were several leagues where I ended up with Shady and Lev Bell or something like that. Yes. Where last year the overreaction was because of the bus data at the position. But you've got to look long term and you can't swing the pendulum too far. You miss out on value. So Jason, number seven. Number seven, this is for me personally and for many listeners out there who have made trades in the year. Some of them work.

Some of them don't. I want to go back and remember the reasons and why things worked and why things didn't. You've got to analyze those because sometimes a trade doesn't work out. A guy gets injured or whatever. Sometimes, though, you go back and you look and you can see why you made a mistake in one of your trades and you can avoid that. So for me, I could tell you, one of the things I want to remember for next year is to never be in a position where I think I need.

to make a trait. If you are in the position where you... Would you call that desperation? Yeah, basically. Or boxing yourself into. Yeah, you're boxing yourself into something. So here's what happened with one, you know, in our league of record. I was five and two. I had a really good team, but I looked at some of the other teams in the league. I looked at like two other teams and I got, man, those are like powerhouse teams. You got scared.

And I thought, I know I'm good. Even though your team was great. I know, yeah, my team is great. But I'm going to go to the playoffs and I'm going to match up against these. I need more firepower. And it became this like need obsession where I thought I have to do it. Couldn't sleep. Couldn't eat. Couldn't eat. Well, well. I could always eat. I mean, let's be honest. Oh, yeah. Couldn't sleep though. Speaking of that, I'm starving. But.

So what I did is I ended up making some moves where, you know, I traded Larry Fitzgerald for Brandon Marshall and gave up more pieces as well. And because at the point in the year, I thought Larry couldn't get it done for me. And I went after Greg Olson. I made my team great, but I ended up doing these trades that actually hurt my team. And I think I did that because I was so focused on I got to get a deal done. Instead of finding the right deal.

I just was like, I need it. I need it today. Let me expand on that too, because I think one thing you can do in your league is if you made a handful of trades this year, go look at how those trades broke down. Did you make a lot of two-for-one deals, either with you getting the two or them getting the two? Look at those deals. Did all the trades that were two-for-ones actually end up in your favor or not in your favor? Break down how, because individual leagues, the people in your leagues, who you trade with, they do affect, you know.

the value that you get back so it's it's good to look back and say hey look i look i did two for one trades three times last year where i or i sent away a good player and got two back and all three times it actually didn't end up in my favor you won't make that mistake again if you can go back and identify the pattern of why you made that mistake because sometimes you get those trade offers and they send those two juicy names

And you're like, oh, I'm going to give up my star because I need to be more well-rounded. And it doesn't work out. But so learn from that is what Jason said. Yep. It's the stock market, right? You got burned because you bought high. Right. You bought the ultimate high of Greg Olson. And so it can work out. This is not something that experts avoid, by the way. Right. It is high. It is super tempting to go buy a guy very high. You want that production on your team.

but learn from it. And there's the danger of buying high is we talked about, this is like when you draft a quarterback early, you're committed to that guy. If you listen to the show through the season, every single week, Greg Olson was in my lineup. Do I, do I start Greg Olson? Well, I have to start Greg Olson, not only because he's still the number one tight end, but you paid so much for him and you know what he can do. You just, that fruit, that juicy fruit is always in front of your face. It's going to move you. Oh, it's going to get right to you.

All right. Number eight. Number eight. Number eight. I think this is one of the most important ones. Remember the fallen. Oh, man. Oh, I do have it. Remember the fallen. Guys coming back from injury are perennially underdrafted and doubted. Okay? This is one of the most important things for you to find value in the upcoming draft. Yes, the risk may be a little bit higher.

because they're coming off an injury. But their bargain price presents upside that you do not want to forget. Who am I talking about? I'm talking about everybody from Eric Decker, Keenan Allen in the early injury, John Brown and the sickle cell problem, Tony Romo went down, may land somewhere else. Eddie Lacey played very little this season. Jeremy Hill. We don't know how banged up he was throughout the season. We know he was banged up. He looked to not be healthy. Gio Bernard.

Jill Bernard missed a huge part of the season. And then guys that got hurt at the end of the year, right? Derek Carr, Melvin Gordon, even some of these other guys that are maybe smaller that you're not thinking about. Randall Cobb seemed like he was actually hurt for the majority of the year, came on towards the playoffs. Ben Watson went out. If you looked at the numbers for Dennis Pitta, the target at the tight-in position in Baltimore was insane. Like his targets were insane, yet Pitta's efficiency and fantasy production were awful. And Ben Watson's coming back, one and a half hips.

Yeah. So there is value to be found in the forgotten, injured, fallen guy. It is a great point. In fact, it's so great that I actually, when we were making ours, I had essentially this point with four guys because to me, Andrew Luck, Melvin Gordon, Levion Bell, and Zach Ertz. I want to remember next year how good those guys were because here's what happens. Next year we're going to look at the lists.

And we're going to forget the nuance of the season. And we're going to see that Melvin Gordon was, you know, he was a top 10 back. And that's pretty good. So he had a good season. But you're going to forget that he was a top 10 back while he played, what, like 13 games. And Andrew Luck was a top five quarterback. It's pretty good. He was the only guy up there who didn't play a full 16 games. They were better than they, you know, same was Zachert. Zachert's, you know, oh, he was like the eighth best tight end.

He missed three games. If you drafted Steve Smith, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Nelson last year, you got value. They outproduced their draft position because they were falling from the year before. Nobody wants to take that risk. And I'm not saying you fill your roster with these players. I'm saying you find the best value from the... They can Jamal Charles on you. Sure. They can't. They can do that. Mike, number nine. Number nine. Number nine, Mike. Welcome to the conversation. Noing. Jason. No.

Noin. What is happening? Are you going to finding Nemo on me? Yes. Go on, Mike. Number nine. This one, this is a personal reminder from me to yourself, to myself and the Foot Clan out there where this is not necessarily a strategy thing. This is we talk about, we always take an overarching look at the game of fantasy football. And there's also some fun to be had with.

combined with the winning. But my point is this, there's not much worse than losing with a guy that you don't like, that you did not believe in. Illustrate that point for us. My point would be, relive this point for us. My point would be this season. If you followed the show through the off season, there would be very contentious and heated debates between, I believe mostly me and Andy. I think Jason was very on board with. I was in the middle.

You're in the middle? But Andy loved Doug Martin, and I did not. Oh, you hated Doug Martin. I wanted nothing to do with Doug Martin. The season rolls around. He gets hurt right away. He gets hurt right. What? Oh, what are you remembering? I just remembered what I asked you to remind me for this show. So now we're going to have 11. Oh, we got a bonus. Write it down so you don't forget. 9B. So here's as you follow. Doug Martin got hurt. But we talked about all season.

The juicy playoff schedule, and not even just the playoff schedule, but after week seven or whatever was, everything opened up for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their schedule became unbelievably good. So I went and bought Doug Martin. I paid pretty hefty for Doug Martin, despite not believing in him personally, not really wanting him on my team, but seeing an opportunity here that I thought was just too good to pass up to get what could be a high-level running back. One.

Well, as the year went on, Doug Martin buried me. He buried me because I had traded away my assets. I couldn't do anything else. I was hamstrung. I bought, as was he. Yeah. Very nice. But I had no choice. I had to play him. Meanwhile, waiver wire pick of Joaquiz Rogers on my team was much better for me. And it's just, I just want to remind you saying the burn is stronger when it's when you have a bad. When you don't like the guy.

It's just far worse. Go down with your best. So I'm reminding myself next year. If there's a guy I just don't like, I'm going to accept the, and I talk about this, accepting the miss. If there's a guy that you don't want on your team, you just, you have to be willing to be wrong. And generally I follow that theory of thinking, but.

I let it get the best of me this year with Doug Martin, and it ruined me, and it really, really sucked that I went down with Doug Martin. Right, right. Jason, you said you remembered an extra one here. Yeah. So we're going to squeeze it in before number 10. I appreciate that. So this was 9B. 9B. This was something I asked Mike to remind me when we do this show. You're welcome. I just remind you. And he couldn't remember and I couldn't remember. But this, you'll clearly understand why I remembered now.

This is dangerous because it's not been vetted, so this might be a terrible advice. No, don't overreact to playoff schedules. Oh, that's right. This is the second year in a row that I feel like there has been too much overreaction. And when I look at myself as an analyst and I want to get better, you know, look, there's players you hit on, there's players you miss on every single analyst. But there's two genres I feel like.