Fantasy Football - Free Agent Predictions + Monty Trade, Combine Takeaways - Podcast for 3/3

Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Do you guys hear that? The welcome? I heard it. No growl. Ah, yes. Yes, yes, yes, yes. The boys are back together for a week. Take it easy over there. Are you gone again, Jason? Yeah, sorry. Yeah, remember we have the, his, uh, his, uh, our spring brakes don't over there. Yeah, it's pretty annoying, but, uh, so your kids are off a different week and yeah, okay. Yeah, well, whatever. We're here today. He's like, I want to spend time with my kids. That is exactly what he sounds like a bad person. Yeah, I know. And so guilty. Uh, welcome into the fantasy footballers podcast Tuesday, March 3rd, also known as Mike's birthday.

Oh, hey. Happy. Happy biggest one ever. He is a regular Adam Thielen here on the show. Hate me, Mike. Well, I could never be that because I can't out age Jason. That's true. Jason's the oldest. But happy birthday, Mike. I mean, still champ. Yeah, we know. I mean, the year of Mike. Hold on. Hold on. Also still champ. Was the last birthday the birthday that was in the year of Mike, or is this birthday in the year of Mike? It's a great question. Because when did it begin? When does it end? Does it end now? Is it from birthday to birthday? It could have been both. It could be years. It's all downhill now, man. I have no idea. If it's the years of Mike, honestly, we're in deep trouble. Tell me how Christian McCaffrey does next year because I still have them everywhere. Well, yeah, it worked out okay for you. Thank you for joining us. Fun show today. We got free agency predictions on today's podcast. Oh, man.

Because free agency is right around the corner, so I am super excited about that. We went through, you know, we have our projections for, or I should say predictions for kind of like the bigger movers and shakers of free agency, obviously not George or Kyle Pitts, who at least for now will remain on their teams because they're going to get the franchise tag. I, man, it didn't feel, not all of them felt really easy, where usually you go in, you're like, I, there's this rumor mill going on. I'm bought into it. There's so many rumor mills right now that I'm not bought into. I feel like I'm throwing a dart. Really? Okay, so you are with me. Yeah, I mean, I have, I have like. A few convictions. Yeah, and the convictions are less players this year than they are teams. Like, I have some convictions around teams doing something splashy with this position. Right. But I'm taking a shot on the names. And the, like, what's extra difficult for me this year.

My convictions of how I think rationally things should go and there's always surprises. My convictions are not aligned with the recent rumor mills for many of the players. So I'm like, do I just stick with what my gut is? Do I, am I bought in that? It's a wild one this year. Well, it will be fun. Do Mike a favor on his birthday. Head over to Spotify or Apple, drop him a five-star review. That helps the podcast. So this is for Mike. It's for Mike. And then YouTube.com slash Defancy Footballers. If you want to watch the show, subscribe, click the bell. We do have an announcement. Congratulations. It's a big one. The listener league's first spot. Well, second spot. That we've given away other than the champion. The first giveaway spot. The first.

earned by luck. The first new spot. The first new spot earned by luck. Yes, as they say. Hey. Jack Halton. Jack Halton. Congratulations. You're in the listener league over the last month. Those of you that purchased and picked up the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com or enter to win. And you won, Jack. Congratulations. I assume we are reaching out to the correct Jack Alton. I hope so. What do you think we're reaching out to the wrong one? Well, I'm not as opposed to just saying, hey, Jack Halton, please contact us. I assume we've reached out. I think we've done that via email. We've gotten so good at this. So if you didn't get an email and your name is Jack Halton and you have the UDK. Who so close. You must be so disappointed. Yeah. But there you go. Congratulations. Keep refreshing that email.

Jointhefoot.com is the community bonus weekly episodes of this podcast, which is super nice in the off season here when we have two regular shows a week and then the bonus show for the foot clan over at join the foot.com. We appreciate each and every one of you over there. Our quick question of the day, any big takeaways from the NFL Combine this past weekend? Cool. Other than everyone running 4-3 something. I mean, Kyle said he looked at the dad and he's like it wasn't really an outlier. It just felt like every time I turned on the TV and watching someone sub 4-4 at running back or wide receiver and even one at tight end to, to at least help you and your thoughts, Jay. This was at least NFL was reporting like this is the fastest.

running back group that we have had. Some of that. Not necessarily all, they're all top in, but just I think the average is up. I think some of that is due to the fact that agents are wising up to like, yep, hey dude. Don't run if you're slow. Yeah, you're not going to benefit. Jonah Coleman. I really wanted to see his 40 because I think he is very fast on film, but I don't know that he has that true breakaway speed. I was so curious to see what his 40 was. That was the player I was most anticipating watching for his 40 time. And here's what I learned. He must not be super fast because he did not run it, which means he is smart and his agent is smart. Don't do it. Don't hurt yourself. And we didn't. Don't Emmett Johnson. We didn't get.

Nicholas Singleton who said he was going to try and run a 4-3 because he has the injury. Do they normally try to run like a 4-5? And this time he's like, I'm going to try to run. I asked. I tried to run a 4-5. I was, I was a few seconds off to take it. It seems like within a couple seconds, man. I believe we're going to be in a permanent state of. some tight end, if not more than one, just being the bell of the ball at these. This was magical. And in the draft and in fantasy football. Yeah, Kenyon Sadiq. At the combine first stores. Yeah, yeah, but both of them. Yeah, I mean. But like we're going like if the here's the thing. If you perform like this at the combine like Sadiq did, you mentioned Stowers, you're going to be drafted very highly. Yes, you will. The value of a tight end in the modern game.

We have seen it year after year after year. We had Laporta. We had Bowers this past year. We had three guys in Fanon, in Warren and Loveland. And you're going to have a couple, at least, in this draft that are drafted with such draft capital that we can't ignore them again. Yeah. You watch me. Oh, I will watch you. It's tough because I'm very difficult. I'm completely in on the fact that in today's NFL, you don't need to have multiple years for a tight end to come in and break out. That's fine. Sadiq specifically is very interesting because his athletic profile off the charts. He was already projected to be a mid first round pick. And now with the combine measurables, I mean, he ran a four three nine. He ran the same.

40 as Jamir Gibbs and he has an extra Jamir Gibbs on him like that it's like that's crazy but his production profile mm-hmm it wasn't like okay why didn't you do all the special stuff you're gonna do in the NFL when you were in college why didn't you do that because I call me a little skeptical we're still where do you think he's drafted oh definitely in the top yeah I think he's a top 10 top 10 top 15 pick yeah And so, yeah, you are welcome to doubt how he performs at the NFL level. I think that's fair. We have not had, I mean, not every tight end has worked out, but we are on a recent streak of multiple rookie tight ends contributing immediately or contributing even more over time. Athleticism matters for our game, for fantasy football, trying to find the guys who can become standout tight ends.

athleticism matters more for the tight-end position than it matters for everybody else, as long as you're, as long as it's not just a complete disaster athletically. No, I feel like it's, I think tight-in's the biggest. It definitely is. However, so is production and especially touchdowns and like your dominator rating, which is a combination of the team's yards and the team's touchdowns. What percentage of them did you have? And Sadeeks is very low. at least for okay very not very low but but too low for us to be like i'm gonna all my chips are gonna go in like if he if he had a monster production profile with that athletic prototype we i would be losing my mind right now but it where it stands i think he's gonna be a a very difficult decision for a lot of people because we're working on the dynasty pass right the combine happened

The second drop of the dynasty pass is being worked on right now. We're tweaking some rankings, adding some guys. Looking at the trade targets, making sure those are still good, which, by the way, Woody Marks was in the tradeaway target. Hope you did that. But in that is another mock draft, a three-round rookie mock, and I was at the fifth pick, and I'll just share it. I took Sadiq because after the four. big players, it was like, we still have so many questions that I guess I'll just take the shot on the onesie position of this dude is just a freak. Yeah, the production, it's tough. You want to see it. I think he was probably, I don't have the exact number, probably at around 40 to 45 yards a game this past season. For Oregon, one of the best teams in the country. He had 560 yards and 14 games. Yeah, that's got to be like 41 or 42.

If you did the math on that. I'm not a nerd. Are you going to pull out a calculator? Yeah. Okay, so give me the number. What do you want me to do? 560 divided by 14. By 14. You got it. 40. Okay. So 40 a game. Price is right. Very, very talented team. But you would also like, you know, you'd love it to be Brock Bowers, Georgia production, right? Yes. Exactly. Like, if he had anything like Brock, it would just be. Number one pick. Goodness gracious. It could be. He could legit be a number one pick if that was the case after that combine. Jason, any other takeaways from you have a Mike Washington note here? Yeah. I mean, Mike Washington is the, he was the, I mean, there's several, but one of the big like, whoa moments was Mike Washington, a 223 pound running back who was already, I feel like he's six two, I think. I feel like he was everyone, myself included, but like everyone.

looked at Mike Washington as like this, oh, I think he's better than we think he's a sleeper like, ah, he's keep your eye on him. And now it's like cats out of the bag. You know, he ran four three three. He ran four three. And I've always said this. I said this literally the last dynasty show. And I've said it forever. If you're over 215 pounds at running back and you run sub four four, I'm in. Because historically, that's a really good bet. That that's that speed score that. translates to the NFL. He's 223 pounds, runs a 433. So it's exciting. It's good. But now I'm actually, it's, the pendulum is going to swing too far. This is not a prospect that is looking like a first round pick. And I do not doubt that he will go at the back of rookie first round draft. Like, like when it comes time to do your dynasty leagues. After the NFL draft? After the NFL draft. Because they'll be early day two pick? No.

because people are too excited and they just are, I worry that his rocket ship might take him too close to the sun. I don't think that'll happen unless the draft capital backs it up. I mean, if you're coming after the NFL draft and he's a fifth, sixth, seventh round pick, that's a problem. If he's an early day two pick, if he's a third round draft pick, if he's a Trevion Judkins area. My biggest worry, here's the worry. He's a fourth round pick. Now that's that could be the danger bill. That's a trap. Yeah, that's where everyone's going to be like the draft capital is going to get kind of put out of, you know, it's, it's one of those where here's what's going to happen. It's going to be a day three pick that is a trade up to get him. Right. And then all of the narrative is going to be like, ah, it's worth more capital. So anyways, I like my Washington Jr. I was so excited with his combine time. I am worried that it.

overhypes him now. What if he's the second round pick? I'm in. Yeah, as you see, I'd be in then too. He'll be the man. I think an interesting part of the process at this point, you know, there were some other guys who were kind of in the consideration to be, maybe they're the RB2 in terms of the NFL draft. And those, you know, like price didn't have a great. combine. Like there's, there's the guys who were in contention to be, oh, this is the second. This is the RB two. They kind of faltered. And so I don't think there is really anything close to a consensus on, on who should the running back to be right now. And I'm not, not just us, but, you know, other dynasty players out there. So it's, I don't know if that's good or more fun at this point. I mean, if you have those rookie picks, you'd be, you wish there was a two.

I mean, we had ambiguity last year, too. Because, I mean, we had some of us here that really liked Hampton. You had people that liked Trayvion. Right, but we knew they were all going to be drafted real high. Yeah, we had like four good ones. Yeah, we didn't know what order it would be in. Let's move on, talk some news. News and notes from around the league. All right, let's start here. ESPN's Rich Semini reporting. If the Jets can't sign Breeze Hall by Tuesday, they will use a tag. By the time you're listening to this, they might have used a tag. It's such a skin tag. Those are disgusting. Skin tags are gross. And that's what they're doing. Sorry, Brees. We thought you were going to get away. Which one of the three of us has Brees all in their dynasty team. I wonder. David Montgomery traded to the Texans for fourth rounder, offensive linemen. And a seventh rounder. The Texans traded two linemen.

Like, what could go wrong? What are we doing? Well, I mean, it's funny because- Listen to this show, Houston. They did this last year. Going into, so two years ago, they had the worst offensive line. I think it was the worst in the league. It might have been like 31st, but it was awful. And then they got rid of a lot of their line. And it was like, how are you, their starters, they're losing starters. They're getting worse. Then they were terrible this last year. And now they're getting rid of more. They're like, let's do it again. But what's interesting about this is that it was originally reported that the compensation was a fifth round pick. And then it changed to more, a fourth rounder, offense of linemen, a seventh rounder. And there were, I think right now it's unconfirmed but pretty substantiated rumors that after it was reported that this trade had been made, another team tried to.

scoop in and pretty much all but confirmed by Benjamin Albright. Right. He's saying that it was the Broncos that came in to try to get David Montgomery for that price or for better and then the Texans paid more. Regardless. Yeah, it turned into a player and a fourth and a seventh. Yeah, it's an interesting deal. It obviously has a lot of ramifications for David Montgomery, for Woody Marks, for Jemir Gibbs. Yeah, I've gone I've gone full circle. So you're back to where you began. I've gone one half of a circle. I don't know, man. I've gone oval. Tell me where you started and where you are now. I started with a reaction of, oh, great, this good running back is free to be what he is capable of being. And then I moved all the way around to where I don't think it's going to be great.

And it's not just the offensive line. That's part of the problem. But, I mean, we've seen David Montgomery when he's had the reins with a bad offensive line in Chicago, and he was the dude there for a while. The system is so perfect in Detroit, obviously. Great offense, high efficiency offense. That's not what we've seen from Houston. Now, you could find some hope, I think, in the success that Joe Mixon had. Yes. Which I think you can go that direction. I don't think it'll be as good as that because I do think, look, where does Woody Marks fit into an offense?

exactly where he's going to fit in here. Not the dude, but a dude that will get work that the team respects. He can now go out for a few plays injured every day because David Montgomery can come in and play, and who knows what else they have in the works. So to me, I feel like he will be the leader of a committee behind a bad offensive line with a quarterback that has shown. He's not exactly capable of putting up top half numbers in this league with a defense first team. All that to say, like, what is Monty? Is he better in Houston than he was in Detroit this past year? Yes. He will be a dead zone running back. He just, I'm more on the nervous side now than I think I would have been before because I think when he was in Detroit, he was an easy pass in most drafts until late. But in Houston, I think there will be a percentage of us that are like, yeah, it's going to work great. It will be very interesting. And he's almost 29. It's so.

crazy the parallels here with the same team from a few years ago like you had damien pierce who was this right later round rookie who came out and was like hey he's a stud you've got your running back on lockdown he's not gonna he's not gonna go away but then the team was like you know what go away go away we want to trade for a 29 year old running back and they brought in joe mixon and then it's like well joe mixon's gonna have to split with damien pierce and i don't know will it work and it's not a great offensive lines and then joe mixon was outstanding and he got all the work and damian pierce vanished and now it's like a couple years later with the same team they had woody marks look pretty good and then they're like go you know let me trade quite a bit here for a 29 year old running back who's proven and i think they're going to give him

the work. I really do think that they are making this move because they think it's important for the style of football they want to play. However, that doesn't mean it's going to be easy to work out if the offensive line isn't good. I mean, we saw Jamal Williams be awesome with the Detroit Lions, lead the league in rushing touchdowns, go out and get a bag of money. That's a good one to bring out. Turns out the lions were part of that recipe that mattered. But I do think we have seen success. And we know that Stroud can throw to the running back. You know, it'll be interesting when we stat everybody out for the ultimate draft kit to see how high or how low Montgomery goes. But as far as team volume share, rushing share, target share out of the backfield, I'm going to believe that David Montgomery is very involved. The last two times who's in Chicago, I just wanted to look at these numbers and throw them out there, no conclusions.

The last two years in Chicago where he had 276 and 241 opportunities, he was the running back 21 and running back 23. I could see him at RB 20 this year, RV 18 to 20. Mike, are you more optimistic than that? No, I'm on Jason's side of. I think he gets all the work, but I'm not, I'm less confident how successful it will be. I mean, we didn't even talk about the other side of it. I wanted to talk about that because the. The reaction, the reaction on in the Twitter streets, as they should be is like, holy crap, Jemir Gibbs 101 in redraft. They're like, you throw out all the numbers. Jamir Gibbs games where David Montgomery is not there is like, he is an unstoppable force. And you could do it now. He could. You could take him 101 now. The, where I did, it's just a, we're on it. This is just a full speculation show because we're talking about free agency where we think guys are going to go.

The Lions will do something at the running back position. They will do something. They're not going to go in with, like, I mean, what if, let me, let me ask you this. According to our lads is their current RB2. What if they signed Algier? Well, that's what I mean of could someone sneaky like Algier come in where you're like, oh boy, that is like, that's young David Montgomery. That's a hammer. The difference to me is that. Gibbs arrived with an incumbent starter who lost his starter job. Yes. This at least, whatever free agent move they make, is it's in the right order, right? Like, you know your number one back is. Yes, it will be understood. Like, I feel, I finally feel like we can put Gibbs in that place where you know the workloads guaranteed enough. Now, yes, the variables are there. I mean, they could bring in the Jamal Williams type. They could bring in those guys that get goal line. I just want to know how Mike.

will feel how he will handle emotionally and practically. Ken Walker. The signing of Rico Dowdle. Doubtle is a strong, doubtle makes so much sense. It's a perfect signing for them. Yeah. And because like they're going to have to pay Gibbs. Like that is, that time is approaching. Where, where are we with that? With Monty and Detroit while you look at that. So he's in Joe Gibbs is going into year four. This is a first rounder. This is where. he will probably be like, come on now. Give me back time. Give me some more of that cash. So you can't, I'm not saying they can give Gibbs the cash and then go get a superstar running back, but someone like Doubtle where it can be a contract large enough to make you like your eyebrows start to wrinkle at the situation. I think he belongs in conversation for number one. Yeah, I agree. I think if you took him at number one,

There's plenty of arguments as to why to take them over CMC at this point. Oh, it's, it's, we be jeaner. The, the one-on-one right now is in the hands of Tyler Algier. That is sure. Where do you go, sir? Does he go back to Atlanta? Yeah, because that's going to change. Does he go to. Does he go to the Lions? Because that, you know, it's like Tyler Alger gets to decide fantasy football is one-on-one. I want to go to Detroit. I want it to be somebody like Dobbins. I want it to be somebody that is older. It's not the contract of the first, you know, Alger, this is his first contract he's going to get. I want it to be, you know, Dowdle. Right. He said, Dowdle doesn't want to go. I don't think Dowell wants to go to Detroit. That's the only comforting fact I have there. He may not have a choice, but he said he wants somebody to give him the rock. And goodness, Montgomery left because he wasn't getting the rock. So to me, what is this, Kyle just throughout? Gibbs has the most total touchdowns in NFL history by any running back through the first three years of his career. Oh, yeah.

Which is crazy for an undersized, like running back. That's just an insane stat. Yeah, we better move on. ESPN on the other side of the coin here. They decided Adam Schifter reporting the Vikings will release Aaron Jones if they can't trade him. This just in. The Vikings will release Aaron Jones. Yeah, no one's going to trade for Aaron Jones and they need cap space and so bye. Emmanuel Wilson. Jordan Mason guys. Yeah, you know, I watched Jordan Mason. Yeah, he wasn't very good this year. He had his moments, but that is everything I watched about him said, man, you need another dude in that backfield. The, and they, but they don't have money. Like getting rid of Aaron Jones that is purely a financial thing. Like all reports are he's one of the leaders in the locker room. So it's like this will affect and shake up the vibes of the team that they don't necessarily want to do, but they have to make a move. So I just meet Jordan Mason will still be under contract with an okay amount of money.

So he will be the leader, and there will certainly be someone else. And it'll come down to just, can they fix the line enough to get Jordan Mason going? All right, quick break, and then we'll talk some more news. Packers did not tender restricted free agent Emmanuel Wilson. He will be a free agent. Okay. Go to Detroit. Sure. I will let you know which players I would approve in Detroit. Emmanuel Wilson is now one of them. What about Aaron Jones? Fine with me. Perfect. Just having to tour the entire division. That's fine. Oh, man, that's funny. This is, this is a conversation. Yeah. Are we even going to get into predictions? I, who cares? This is, we're so much news. I tried to warn you. This is scary. This is legit. I love, I love it. It's not, it's not just teasing it. It's not just a quote, like watching it. What I'm about to say right now. Yeah. I mean, it was, it was scary. Say is unbelievable that I'm about to tell you.

Raiders head coach. Clint Kubiak says they, quote, definitely want to have a two-man show at running back this season. Last year, Ashen Genti saw 39% of the team's total rush attempts and targets. Only Jonathan Taylor, CMC, and Bejan had a higher percentage. They'll be drafting Mendoza. They've got Bowers. They've got Genti, and that'll be part of the... And we've got free agency predictions, and I have the Raiders with at least one of them. But we'll have some... This is not... Discussions here. The staff... You know, it's like even though Ashton Genti was drafted last year, it's a new regime. And so this is like the pot committed. That part I don't care. The thing is, is when you spend capital like they did, a top 10 pick on a player, you are guaranteed to give him all of the work. Now, his talent will still retain the majority of the work. He's too good. But that's.