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Main show · May 30, 2019

Ultimate Draft Tips + Stunning Stats

RSSMay 30, 2019 · transcript indexed
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Ultimate Draft Tips + Stunning Stats

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Inside the episode

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0:00 ↗

This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Every football fan is different. Some won't wash their lucky mustard-stained jersey until the season's over. Some insist they can't sit down on third downs and some pick their favorite team because, I don't know, just like football fandom, nobody's life is exactly the same. And that's why State Farm gets to know you, not as a policy number, but as an actual person.

0:26 ↗

so they can help personalize a coverage plan that's just for you. Whether it's game day or just another Tuesday, State Farm has you covered.

0:35 ↗

Granger knows if you're a procurement manager at an industrial manufacturing facility, you're balancing inventory and budget while sourcing critical supplies across the operation. Too much inventory? Cost climb? Too little? Production slows. Granger's $2 billion in on-hand inventory helps you get what you need when you need it. So you can help keep budgets balanced and lines moving. Call 1-800-Grangeer. Click ranger.com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done.

1:15 ↗

It's almost that time of year. The time when I set the foundation for supreme and total dominance at my fantasy football draft. How can I be so confident? Because I used the ultimate draft hit from the fantasy footballers. Man, it updates all off-season, so I never worry about using old busted information. Consistency charts, auction values, full projections.

1:45 ↗

Oh, baby, this thing's got it all. You want to keep it 100 for your draft. Head to Ultimate DraftKit.com and get your copy today. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. All right, all right. Welcome in.

2:26 ↗

Welcome into the show. Thursday, May 30th, the fantasy footballers podcast. Back again. Mike is here. Jason present and accounted for. I am Andy Holloway. Brooks, he's twisting the knobs and pulling the levers. He's back there doing nude bongos. Really? In honor of our good friend of the show. Every year when the ultimate draft kit releases, Brooks finds a need. Mm-hmm.

2:55 ↗

Uh, finds it within himself to disrobe, play the bongos, and scream for a couple of hours. So if you hear the, that's, that's Brooks. Brooks, how are we doing? Are you able to do the bongo thing and the producer thing at the same time? Oh, yeah. Awesome. It's an exciting time. It's an exciting time. I've never heard Brooks more excited. Yeah. About anything on this show. Mm-hmm.

3:24 ↗

Except the time that we tossed him a nude bongo joke. Yeah, he was in on that. Yeah, 10 out of 10. 10 out of 10. We'll play. Welcome in. Got a great show prepared for you. A quick question. I think you guys will like my answer to it. And then... Oh, I do. In celebration of the ultimate draft kit, we've got the ultimate draft tips on the show today. Breaking down some very interesting, astute.

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insights, gleaned, pulled from some of the data inside the ultimate draft kit. Well, what's great about, we're showing how we use it. The ultimate draft kit, yes, it has our rankings, it has our full projections, but this thing is a research tool. I mean, we talk about it all the time on this show. We want you to be involved in the decision making. The game of fantasy football is not fun if we say, hey, play this player and you just, oh, sure.

4:22 ↗

Click, put him in the starting lineup. We want your brain thinking about the game thinking about the analytics, trying to find the trends and the edge. So that's part of why I am personally so proud of the ultimate draft kit. Somebody can jump in there, literally never look at my personal rankings, which you should because they're really, really good rankings. Far better than a bongo playing monkeys with rank players. But you could just, there's so much substance.

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to dive in for the research. Well, and these tips today that we're giving on the show, these aren't just from the draft kit. These are from our months and months and months of diving deep. Right. Like, this is where we've been living. We've been living in this data. Really, really cool insights, ultimate draft tips on the show today. This is your last chance to pre-order the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com. It releases on Saturday. Saturday, June 1st, is the release date. This is the last chance for the discount.

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You get five bucks off to pre-order. I mean, that's the discount. So your last chance to do it. Very excited, very proud of what our team has done. If we could get a hold of the calendar man or the calendar gal.

5:31 ↗

It's really unfortunate that it has to release on a Saturday for us trying to run a business. Could we just make sure that June 1st is always a weekday? I'm going to look at that. See, I thought you're going to different direction. I thought you were going to officially petition for June 1st to be made a national holiday, which you really should have gone. I accept that as well. So we're going to get into some of those insights, information. It is the number one question we get about.

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The ultimate draft kit each year is how do I practically use this to equip myself for the draft? So we'll address that on the show. Follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers. You can watch the show on YouTube, YouTube.com slash the fantasy.

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Footballers, fortunately for you, Brooks is behind the camera. Fortunately, for us all. For us all. Except for me, staring right towards the camera. You're welcome, Jason is the least fortunate among us. Impressive work, though, Brooks. Oh, the Baskin Robbins paying off. Here's the quick question for the day. Who have you been changing your opinion on lately? Player-wise. I mean,

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This is a long offseason. There are lots of different pieces of information, and coaches like to talk the talk about their players, and the draft has happened, and opportunities have risen for players based on injuries, you know, people going down, Isaiah Crowell. I like the use of the word opportunity. Oh, great. So you want me to start? Yes, I do. Let's be clear. Say it!

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My opinion on this player has changed, not on his nickname. Say it. David Mopportunity. Yes, there it is. David Montgomery running back. Rookie. Rookie running back from the Chicago Bears. I have been the lowest on him on the show. Not because I dislike David Montgomery. It's simply the fact that I had a belief, have a belief that, you know, it's going to be a...

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a multitude of running backs used in the system. That being said, when you look at the landscape of NFL teams and opportunities, as you would call them opportunities, this is why he got the nickname. There's just a lot of available carries for David Montgomery in Chicago, and that's not the case for every player. Now, someone like Miles Sanders, I think there's only 30, 40 carries available when you look at...

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who got carries last year and who's still on the team. Now, someone like Miles Sanders will take a bunch of opportunity because the players that took those carries, they're not good. You know, it was a matter of, and one of the insights that I'll bring up later in the show focuses on this component of market share, right? How much market share did different players take out of the backfield? But David Montgomery just has an enormous opportunity because...

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of Jordan Howard's absence and because of what skill sets Tariq Cohen and, you know, the incumbents there have. And they brought in Mike Davis, and I've brought that up. And I don't know if consistency will be the name of the game for David Montgomery in the first half of the year. But everything presenting in Chicago says that the second half of the season looks like it's David Montgomery's for the taking. He has to do something with it.

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But it's his for the taking. And the fact that he can catch the ball, the fact that there are so many carries available to him, my opinion is changing. I have warmed. He has moved up my rankings a little bit. So David Montgomery is my choice. I'll step to the plate next since I'm going the other direction. To the plate, huh? When I saw his name in there, I was so confused. It's like, how could you possibly?

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rise this guy up even more in your rankings. No, no, no. It is, in fact, the opposite. It's a player I've been cooling on someone that coming into the offseason reading and researching everything I can from Tennessee beatwriters, from the general manager and the head coach and the offensive line coach and the running back coach. It's going to, and I believe it will be the Derek Henry show. And so I was very high and bullish that.

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What we saw last year, and really if you look at the career of Derek Henry, it's been subpar for 90% of it. And then the last portion of last year, he was dominant. He was a fantasy champion winner for people. And so I came into this offseason pretty bullish on him. I still believe he will get the role. But as I...

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Statted every player out, every team, looked at play rate, which is so important for fantasy football. It's like how many plays are each team going to get? What's their speed of play? Look, the more you want to run the ball, the more the clock will run and the slower your pace of play, and they're going to give him a lot of carries. But Derek Henry's not going to be as involved in the passing game as any other back with, you know, those high level of carry counts other than maybe Sony Michelle.

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And this is not a team that I expect to score a ton of points. This is not a team I expect to have a fast pace of play. So if they're a slow down, try to, you know, Mike Vrable is a defensive-minded head coach. They want to run the ball, have good defense. They don't have a great quarterback in Marcus Mariotta. He's going to get 270 plus carries. That's what I've got him down for. I think that Tennessee fans right now would be very.

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disappointed in the way that you're talking about that team? Of course. Saying that their quarterbacks no good, saying that their offense isn't going to score a lot of points. Mario's fine. It's just not great. But I think that the bigger point of what fantasy owners need from running backs is interesting here because very few running backs in football had a higher percentage of their team's receptions than Dionne Lewis did last year. He is the past catcher on that offense.

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they're not going to scheme Derek Henry to catch the ball. That's not going to change when you give 80%, 78, 79% of all receptions from the running back position goes to one guy. So he's capped in that regard. He has to score. Yeah, and look, I've got him down for nine touchdowns, 270 carries. When I put these numbers down, I was feeling really good about Derek Henry. He just didn't end up as high as you thought. And then I look in a PPR or a half PPR. I mean, look, if you're in a standard league, great. But keep in mind, you still.

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you know, look, if you don't get receptions, you don't get receiving yards. So it still matters in a standard league. That's how that works. That is. But yeah, he's been falling down my, you know, in my opinion, I was bullish on him. Now I'm like, okay, I'll take Henry. I think he'll get work. But I don't think he can be a top 10 back this year. That was going to be my next question. So not in the top 10. Mike, so the player I am rising on it. And this is not a idea.

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Jason Jason. Just breathing. Calm down. Will this help, Jay? Carry on. It helps a lot. Doesn't help my cool setup that I had prepared. Whoopsies. It's all right. It's carry on Johnson. Oh, really? And this is, it's not like we were, I disliked him. He was a great player, a strong running back too. I'm just coming more and more to terms with and.

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being okay with the idea that Kerry on Johnson could end up as a top 10 running back. And it's precisely for the exact opposite of what you were talking about with with Derek Henry is you forget how involved Carrie on Johnson actually was in the passing game. And how good. And how good he was. He was averaging four targets a game. And that's just across the entire season.

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