Ultimate Draft Tips + Stunning Stats

A couple of shocking stats. I'll start with this one. Alvin Camara, he owned the 10 zone. Now, the red zone's inside the 20, but we've got data in there on inside the 10 carries. I love it. I love being able to see how sticky these touchdown numbers really are. And it's so much more valuable than Red Zone. Red Zone is such a...

dumb stat. Red zone to me works for wide receivers, but red zone does not work for running backs. I mean, there's huge amounts of evidence. If you're running from the 11 to the 19 yard line, it's like, oh, okay, but from the 10 and in is unbelievably valuable. And Alvin Camara, he owned it. He owned the 10 zone. 33 10 zone attempts last year, second most in the league behind Todd Gurley, by the way. 10.

10 zone touchdowns. That's second in the league. So his touchdowns were coming from a more reliable, predictable depth. It's why I have him. The Saints is the number one rushing team again this year in terms of touchdowns. 71% of Camara's touchdowns came inside the 10. That is repeatable. That is something that was, I think, a little bit surprising because people expected, you know, them to go right back to the well with Mark Ingram and giving him those opportunities. No, they said.

Alvin Camer is just too good. He just gets in. He's just too good. And I don't think that Latavius Murray, while he will supplement, is going to do anything different by way of inside the tin work than Mark Ingram would do. So that was insight number one. Alvin Camer's sticky touchdown rate. This one was even more shocking. And part of this, I'm not even going to draw a conclusion here. I'm going to let you guys draw the conclusion. Oh, okay. Because that's a lot of what the ultimate draft gets about. Listen to this.

Devante Adams had more than twice the amount of red zone targets than Mike Evans had last year. So Devante Adams had 31. Makes sense. Mike Evans had 14. But get this. Mike Evans had only six total red zone receptions last season. Michael Thomas had 24. Josh Reynolds had seven. That is more than Mike Evans had. Mike Evans had.

did not have a lot of opportunity in the red zone last year whatsoever. When you can turn in a season like he had with six red zone receptions, what do you make of that data? What do you make of that observation? Two things. It says room to go up for red zone work because Mike Evans is a great red zone player. He's had years where he's dominated in that area of the field. It also speaks a little bit to...

some of the deep plays that were happening. I mean, you don't get in the red zone when you're scoring Ryan Fitzpatrick Magic from the 50-yard line. That's true. That's true. I just think it's very interesting when you look at what makes variance at the touchdown position. You look at Devante Adams and you say 31 targets inside the red zone. Oh, that's why every single year, Devante Adams leads or is near the lead of the NFL in touchdowns. The opportunity's success in that space.

Even Michael Thomas, that's a good number to know that, you know, 24 red zone receptions. Right. Someone else is going to end up in the end zone. Someone like Mike Evans, it just seems like there is nowhere to go but up in terms of red zone targets. I feel like this team is going to be more successful through Bruce Ariens' offense, even if it's not, you know, exponential. How do you not throw it to the big guy? I feel like this is data that we just need to get over to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Oh, yeah. Well, Brooks, because I'm looking through. Put your clothes on.

through Mike Evans. Send an email out to Bruce. I mean, just historically speaking, his red zone reception numbers, they're just not where they should be at all. I mean, Tampa Bay, get together. He is humongous. Yeah, O.J. Howard's looking over and winking at you, though, going, uh, maybe, maybe not. O.J. Howard looks at Mike Evans. He goes, humongous. Who you talking to? That baby guy. All right. Brooks. Interesting. Brooks, do me a favor.

Hold off on putting those clothes on because I got to give you huge credit here, Bongo Player. What I'm going to bring up now is one of my favorite things that we have on our website at all. I absolutely love them. It's our consistency charts. This is a Brooks...

creation years ago brooks was doing this on his own and a google doc and uh you know we we started looking at this data and using it being like wow this is really valuable data we should give it to the people so we made that if you're in the joy in the foot you see the week by week consistency charts through the year and what these are is these are charts where you can see how a player finished at the position

Not just how many points they scored, but how often... Fantasy finish. Fantasy finish. Are they a top 12? Are they a top 24? Are they a bust? And it's this color-coded grid that just makes it really quick and easy to scroll through and look for anomalies. Look for things that stand out. Then we also take it and we look at percentages. Like Corey Davis, never being green. Right. You'd be like, oh, man, why there are only two green boxes here? So here's two...

quick little things that stood out to me. Tom Brady's a goat, right? Tom Brady is great. He's fantastic, you know, going to go down as the best quarterback of all time. And he has been a very successful fantasy football quarterback in the past. That's why people still draft him and use him high and all that. Last year, he's still finished, you know, as a decent quarterback. But if you actually look at how it happened on a weekly basis,

You start to see a trend here because in the last 10 weeks of the season, Tom Brady only had a top 12 quarterback two times. Now, keep in mind, you're in a 12-man league. Pretty much you need a top 12 performance every week. Either you spin a high draft capital on a quarterback who you think almost every week's going to get a top 12 so you could compete with the other 11 teams in the league. Or.

you're streaming the positions or you're playing the matchups to get, you know, well north of 50% in that top 12. That means eight of the last 10 weeks. He wasn't a top 12, which killed you in fantasy. Right. So like when I look at that and that's kind of the trend, I'm going, okay, I'm off of Tom Brady. I'm not drafting Tom Brady. They're going even more run heavy. They lost gronk. So that's where I'm at on Tom Brady. The other one that stood out to me. And this was just.

I like... Yeah, you actually exclaimed aloud in the office when you discovered this. I did. Very distracting. Well, because I love distracting people. Yeah. That's why. But so I really like... You're so good at it. Thank you. I really like the consistency percentages as well because sometimes we forget when a player misses games how good they were or bad they were when they...

were on the field. And as I looked at the 2018 consistency percentages, O.J. Howard, the aforementioned gigantic man from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he had a higher consistency percentage of finishing in the top 12 on a weekly basis than Zacherts, George Kittle, or Eric Ebron last year. So when we're talking about the potential breakout here for O.J. Howard.

Now that Adam Humphreys is gone and Deshaunge. He kind of already broke out percentage wise. I mean, most of his weeks, 80% of his weeks last year, he was a top 12 tight in. That's great. And so he just needs more weeks. Right. I mean, you know, stay healthy your knees. That's interesting. It is interesting. More weeks. I'm a big fan of O.J. Howard this year. I think he's going to have a great breakout. He'll be one of those, you know.

Top five drafted tight ends for the next five or six years. That's my opinion. Interesting. Mike, you can close out the ultimate draft tips here. Sure. So the people ask us very frequently how to use the kit. I feel like we've done a pretty good job here of highlighting some of the ways we use it. And then, but how do you use it to actually draft? And that's when you talk about tears, baby. Tears. If you go look at our.

rankings. You will find the projection score that we think that person will hit with their stats. Their risk rating, you know, which is the risk rating is how confident are you in that projection because this person may have a lot of variables happening around them. Injury, depth charge, history. So that's what the risk rating is all about. And then you will see these players are grouped into.

Tears. Now, if you're not familiar with this, this is how we think about players when we're drafting them. We put them in a bucket. And inside of this bucket are players who we believe will score very similar. End of season, their points will be very similar to one another. That helps you separate yourself from the name where you freak out. You're like, I got to get.

Andrew Luck. Or even the rank. Oh, he's three spots behind this other player. You're like, I've got to get this player. I've got to get Andrew Luck. And then you realize that we have Deshaun Watson, who's ranked behind Andrew Luck, but scoring a very similar amount of points. He's in the same tier. But Deshaun Watson's going a full round behind Andrew Luck. So you're looking at, well, I can get similar point production going later in the draft. So that's...

I feel like that's a snapshot. Have I missed anything explaining tears? No, I think that you covered it. And it's just a philosophical way of approaching the draft that gives you an advantage over other players. You never put yourself in a position of desperation.

When you were drafting strategically using tiers. It helps you not draft afraid. And then I look through. Which you always make the worst picks when you're afraid. You do. When you draft tilts. It's the worst. We've all done it. Oh, everyone has. I'll just say this. We all have. And when you make one bad draft pick, it's like it's required by law to make the next two really bad two. It's like you've tilted on that one. Then you realize you made it. And then you try to make up for it. And you get out of hand. So there was a couple players that I just wanted to point out real quick that.

along with we have guys who we have designated as these are values that all three of us believe in. You can look at the projections and find your own values based off of these tiers like Julian Edelman. For us, he is a tier three wide receiver and you can see the ADP data in here that he's going a full round behind all the other, at least a full round behind all these other wide receivers who are in that same tier. Sammy Watkins.

Much to Andy's chagrin. So this is more of a Jason Moore Mike Wright special. We got him in our tier five. And he's going at the back of the seventh round. I call him Sammy Sadness. But go on. Sammy's sadness? Yeah. Yeah. Go on. All right. And then the affirmation because I can't stop talking about Robbie Anderson. Oh, I love that man. But he's in, he's at the top of tier six. And he is going in the eighth round. Meanwhile, Robbie happiness. Is that how you're talking about?

Wow, you are crushing right now. You're on fire. But so he's at the top of that tier going in the eighth round. Meanwhile, all the other players in that tier are in the fifth or the sixth round. So this is helping you strategize how you're going to attack your draft. Put these guys into tiers. It's extremely helpful. A couple of points to add to that. We do have a brand new cheat sheet sheet creator that features tiers.

and your tiers are dynamically updated based on your scoring system. So when you plug in whatever idiosyncrasies your league scoring has, the tiers are dynamically and algorithmically adjusted, and you will have a very up-to-date, perfect draft-day cheat sheet for those of you, like myself.

who likes to print out a piece of paper, who likes to reference his cheat sheet. And I like, I get the Sharpie out. So that's the way Dad did it? Look, the way. The way that draft day smells like a Sharpie. That's all I'm saying. I'm actually right. And Hot Wing. It smells like wings. Yeah, and Hot Wing. I'm actually so there with you. I feel like I draft best with a printed cheat sheet where I can look at everyone at once, cross players off. And last year, they were not.

nearly what they are this year. This year it's a one sheet. We make it easy. Yep. So very excited. Again, tomorrow today, last two days that you can get the Ultimate Draft Kit at pre-order pricing. We want you in there. We want you to enjoy it. It's updated all offseason. And that is Ultimate DraftKit.com. And if you do play DFS, there is a combo available to get the DFS pass, which is our in-season DFS helper. I'm so excited for this year. Yeah, we got a lineup generator coming.