Ultimate Draft Tips + Stunning Stats

And that doesn't even then take into account the ebbs and flows of, well, Garrett Blunt was the primary running back for the first few weeks of the season. He was really splitting time. So that number can even go up. I certainly don't expect it to go down. But if it's just four targets a game, that's 62 targets. I mean, that's sensational for a full-time leader of that running back core.

which I fully expect Caryon Johnson to be that. So just adding in the fact of I've, you know, even though we're in this every day, you forget things like how involved in the past game Caryon Johnson truly was. And he's a special player. It certainly doesn't help that the team is coming out and saying, ah, we're a running team. We're a bunch of strong dudes. I don't necessarily agree with going with that for your offense in the year 2019.

That's where they're going. That's what they want to be. And the leader of that will be Carion Johnson. Then add in Stafford always dumps the ball off. I just, I'm coming to the place where the upside of Carion Johnson is going to be well worth his average draft price. I'll take you by the hand, Mike, and I will welcome you aboard. What's funny about it is to come out and say, this is a running football team. You have to understand the context of the Detroit Lions. This is.

probably the worst running football team in the last 20 years. They were even, they were, they were dead last in rushing two of the last four years. Now, last year, I think there were 23rd. Yeah, which is like a huge improvement for Detroit. What year to Barry Sanders retire? I mean, this has been, so to say you're a rushing football team, the statistical evidence, look, it's one thing to say it, right? Like Seattle said it, and then Seattle did it. Right.

Detroit needs to say it and then do it, and it has to move the chains. If they can move the chains, then Carillon will be able to sustain that level of expectation due to touchdowns. You're also going to need – you don't have concerns over Theoretic? No, I don't. Riddick will be there. He'll do his thing, but carry-on is going to be on the field so much. It would be nice to see a healthy season out of Carion, establish himself. To your point of you've got to be able to do it.

I mean, with that offensive line and Kerry on Johnson's skill set, I think they could have success being that type of a team. Yeah. All right. We are going to skip news today. We don't have a big bunch of stuff to say. You don't want to talk about Buck Allen. Buck Allen signed with the Saints. Why? Because that's what people do, Mike. In the off season, they sign with different teams. I'm not asking Buck Allen why he signed with the Saints. I would love to sign with the Saints. I'm asking the Saints. What are they doing?

Pass protection experience. That's what I believe. I believe he will not be on this team. Okay, well, that is a different take. He's there for now. A little bit of high train news about James Washington dropping 15 pounds. Okay, there you go. I wish I was so long. And people ask me like, so is, wait, is it, you like that? And I've, because I've been a vocal proponent on the show of I like when my wide receivers gain weight.

I like when running backs lose weight. I don't like when a wide receiver loses weight. Generically, that's true, but I, you know, I pointed to the side. He's played pretty big. He's built like a running back, and he looked like he needed, you know, his size. Sure. I think, I genuinely think this could be good for James Washington. If, uh, it's good for his abdominals. Yeah, it's good. They're very protrusive now. He's down a belt size. He says he's very happy. Um,

If you haven't, checked it out, check out the Sleeper app. Great platform for redraft, for Dynasty, for Keeper leagues, always improving. We're going to be doing our listener league on Sleeper this year. It's going to be great. And without further ado. Tips and Tricks. All right, it's time for some ultimate draft tips. Tangible, practical, real insight. Pulled straight out of the Ultimate Draft Kit, which releases on Saturday. Get in there now.

or tomorrow if you want to get it at the lowest possible price this is the final push before it's out it's available and mind you if you if you've used it in the past we listen like the number one thing we do as a company is we want to improve this core product and make your draft experience better the two things you really wanted which we really wanted but hadn't been able to get in until this season

We're custom scoring. So now you can modify scoring settings. You will get tiers and rankings specific to your scoring settings and be able to save them in there. And the other one is a mobile app for both iOS and Android. So you will have a better mobile experience. You will be able to bring it on the go and enjoy it, you know, in your pocket. Yes. And putting a UDK in your pocket, nothing better. Nothing better. All right.

I'm going to kick it off, guys, and I'm going to pull some insight straight out of the market share reports. Now, Mike, this is one of your babies inside the Ultimate Draft Kit, breaking down all the market share numbers for running backs, for wide receivers. It's very interesting when you look at data and you look at the percentage of carries or receptions a player gets in proportion to their team totals. Three names I want to bring up out of this.

The first one is Kenyon Drake. Last season, Kenyon Drake had 34%, just 34% of his teams running back yardage. It's like he was behind an Infinity Stone or something. Correct. Frank Gore was impeding Kenyon Drake's rushing yardage last year, just 34%. 78% of the teams receiving yards. Yeah, he was a monster through the air.

What this means to me is that there is not just a big opportunity for Drake on the ground. That's evident, right? When you look at that evidence and see what Frank Gore did, but it is a great opportunity for Kalin Belage as well. That is a large percentage of running backyards available. Now, there has been turnover at the head coaching position. But what I don't believe, and I know you guys do, you're all on board the Kenyon Drake train, and I think that there is great opportunity for him.

But I also believe that in the NFL, more often than not, what you are is what you are. And just because a new head coach is coming in and Mr. B. hole is not there, I don't expect Kenyon Drake. I don't expect Kenyon Drake. And I am laughing because apparently you don't want to talk about Infinity Stones and Mr. Bhole at a high rate of speed. So apparently there was, Jason was enjoying himself over here, and I couldn't help but laugh because he had to share it with me.

The Infinity Starved was put somewhere, and I don't. We do not condone this, Jason. It's Jason at his best. But my point is that I think there's great opportunity for Caleb Lash. That's the real huge takeaway for me. I think Kenyon Drake will get more opportunity in the running game than he had last year. But Kaila Blage is capable in the running game and the passing game. There is a lot of opportunity on that offense. So that's takeaway number one. Here's one that I thought was, and do you want to respond to that at all?

I see the opportunity as, I mean, what you've found is obviously a huge opportunity, but I think it goes to Kenyon Drake. When you've got someone who already has a good percentage of the target share at running back, who now has the opportunity to possibly, now maybe it is Kalen Blige. But if Kenyon Drake comes in and grabs more of the running back rushing share, that's how you get a top 12 back. It's true. Is a back that has both. Well, and I think that makes Kalam Blage a very valuable sleeper.

opportunity there too. Peyton Barber, here's a very interesting takeaway from the market share. He was 100% of workhorse last year. Yes, he was. He accounted for 61% of his team's running back fantasy points, which is ninth most in football. But even more impressive, 83% of the running back yards. That is fourth in the NFL. Peyton Barber. When you read the names, Peyton Barber doesn't belong in your mind.

That's just so funny because he didn't have a lot of yards. No, he didn't. Like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could not run the ball. You know who didn't have a lot of yards? Ronald Jones. Which a bit of a hype piece came out today on Ronald Jones, by the way. Peyton Barber was also fourth in attempt percentage. So 79% of total attempts. Did they really want to do that to him? One of my points is I don't think they wanted.

I don't think they sat out and said, you know what, we've got our Sequin. We've got our Todd Gurley on this team. His name is Peyton Barber. We want to give them 80% of the running back work. That is a product of not having options. So I think what it says to me is that those numbers aren't going to sustain percentage-wise for Peyton Barber this year, and there's an opportunity for Ronald Jones. Yeah, and if he already had it. They might. He had it?

And he didn't do much with it. Exactly. And so you got best case scenario for Peyton Barber last year from a percentage of Kerry standpoint. He can't possibly go up and statistically as far as market share goes, he is going to regress in a market share. Maybe the offense is better and so it works out. Very positive news out of camp on Ronald Jones from coaches. Very positive news today from James Winston. Which coach?

Because I did not see the... The news... Was it Bruce? Okay. And the news today was about Winston and talking about Rojo's confidence level and not looking over his shoulder and playing fast because they didn't invest draft capital. Well, if he looks over his shoulder, there's no one back. He needs to look forward because that's where Peyton Barber is on the depth chart. That is true. But the point being... There's no one behind me, guys. They didn't invest draft capital. Well, that's the point. The point is there's no one behind him. If they had spent a third round pick on another running back...

Rojo's confidence is sap because he was drafted high, didn't perform, and then is looking over his shoulder. Instead, he's got Andre Ellington, who didn't even play last year as the backup at that position. Great opportunity for Rojo. Yeah. The last one I want to bring up is Corey Davis, because when you look at his market share in the passing game, it's very similar to Peyton Barber. When I put in his numbers, I was like, well, no, this is.

This doesn't make any sense. I remember you pointing this out. It was... Until you break down the actual passing production of the team. Seventh highest target percentage in football. It doesn't make sense. Ninth highest number for percentage of teams total wide receiver yards. Yet he only had four top 24 weeks. So he was near the top of the league in terms of basically metrics that say...

Corey Davis dominates the wide receiver position for his team. He is, for all intents and purposes, a number one, except for he was not good for fantasy purposes. So you look at that and you say to yourself, am I going to buy the lie? And the lie is that Corey Davis can get better. And it's a lie. Because Corey Davis had four top 24 weeks with numbers that would have put him in the upper echelon of target percentage and receiving yards. You add AJ Brown.

You add Adam Humphreys. You built this team around Derek Henry at the end of the year when Corey Davis wasn't good at all. Not that he was good much of the other time, but he was really not good when Derek Henry was getting 4,000 carries a game. Corey Davis is a unmitigated bus this year. Here's the thing.

Titan fans so far, you're not enjoying this at all. I think you're going to be good as a team, though. That's what I was going to point out. You're not going to be good for fantasy. You're not going to want these players. Derek Henry is going to be all right, but you're not going to be good for fantasy. But you could make the playoffs. You're a solid team. And you got the NFL draft. So I hope you went and had a good time. The city of Tennessee. People often ask, you know, like how do I go about making a trade offer?

Well, if you're trying to trade Corey Davis, I suggest using his market share numbers. That is true. You can craft the trade narrative very well. You could. But, I mean, look, this is a team that has been 9 and 7 for three straight years. They're a good team. Their defense got better. I think that they are a very good team, but fantasy-wise, you're grasping at, you're saying this team might make the playoffs, so they must have great players.

Right. For my fantasy. The slow pace of play really matters for fantasy. And I think that you're going to see that again in 2019. So those are my three takeaways from the market share reports. There are many more to be had. It's just very interesting when you get into the numbers and say, wow. Corey Davis had that percentage. Yeah. So for me, one of the one of the things that I feel like.

It either gets overhyped or underhyped, you know, strength of schedule. We've got a strength of schedule in the ultimate draft kit, and we don't just go, was it a good team or a bad team and how are they facing? We take a look at last year's schedule, this year's schedule specific to the teams of the divisions that they happen to play. We look on a positional level and try to project things forward to have a good strength of schedule. But we've often said strength of schedule is not the most sticky stat.