Tier Drop Candidates + 2018 Rookie Review: QB & WR

But yeah, John Dorsey was the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs when they drafted Cream Hunt. And he talked to him. Like part of the reason for Cream Hunt's when the draft season was happening in that rookie period, why I liked Cream Hunt was because Dorsey was so madly in love with Karim Hunt and his ability. I mean, they traded up significantly to get Cream Hunt in the third round it was. So this.

It was shocking to see what the Cleveland Browns have picked up Cream Hunt. You thought, well, they don't need him. They got Nick Chubb. They got Duke Johnson. But then when you start thinking through it, connecting Dorsey to Cream Hunt, then it absolutely made sense. And you can see a backfield of the future here that is reminiscent of Alvin Camara and Mark Ingraham, where you've got the great pass catching back in Alvin Camara and in Cream Hunt. And then you have...

Chubb, who's just a great bruiser a la, you know, Ingram, but they can all do everything on the field. The thing that I think a lot of people are concerned about, as soon as the news broke, Twitter, my timeline was full of you got to move Chubb down. And I think that's going to be a mistake in 2019 as far as people will move him down because they're worried. And by the time drafts come, we'll know what Kareem Hunt's fate will be.

But I expect Cream Hunt to be suspended for the majority of this upcoming season. Agreed. And if, let's say he's gone eight games. So half. If he's gone eight games and you can get Chubb at a discount for the first half of the year as a star, I'm doing that because halfway through the season, which is more than halfway through the fantasy football regular season, if I've got a star running back, I'm going to be able to figure things out by week nine, you know, make some moves.

One of the things that happens a lot of the time in fantasy football is we want the clear path to glory. And that clear path that was present for Nick Chubb to win you your league next year, it's not as clear anymore. Now, a source told ESPN's Dan Graziano that the discipline process is still ongoing, nowhere near done for Kareem Hunt. Like you said, he's going to get a significant suspension for shoving and kicking a young woman in Cleveland last year.

It could be anywhere from probably six to ten games. I would put it at about a, I don't know, 90% chances in that range. Eight to ten is the range I'm expecting. I'll say six to twelve. But the thing is, if Cleveland remains a team ascending, they have great pieces, Baker was wonderful, opportunity in that division potentially. If they're having great success,

There's no world where Kareem Hunt just walks in the door in week 10 or week 11 and takes over the backfield from a successful Nick Chub. So I think a lot of your confidence in Nick Chub can remain there if it was confidence in his talent. Sure. And for Kreme Hunt, it's a one-year deal. He is a restricted free agent afterwards. So if Cleveland likes where things are trending, if Kreme has been able to.

atone and kind of get his life turned around, then they will have first crack to bring him back. But it's, as far as an NFL contract, this is a very, very low risk for Cleveland. All right. The other huge news for fantasy football owners, NFL draft watchers, Kyler Murray, Oklahoma Sooner, Heisman Trophy winner, Oakland A's.

Draft pick has declared his passion and love and dedication to the game of football and we'll be entering the NFL draft. When we heard this this morning, Mike, you said, oh, Kyler Murray says he's dedicated to, you know, to football. And Andy and I both had the same reaction. It's like, okay, what's the source? Who said that? Who's saying this. Okay, he's dedicated. And it's like, no, this is Kyler Murray's Twitter page. He is the source. Who made a graphic saying.

This I am fully 100% dedicated to football to being an NFL quarterback. That's what I'm doing with my career, which is what he had to do if he wants to be in the top 15 picks of the NFL draft. He forfeited $3.16 million that was due to him March 1st from the A's and has to pay back $1.29 million of the $1.5 million signing bonus. At that point, they retain his rights. But he has to pay back $1.29 of $1.5.

Yeah. That sounds like a good deal for Carla. So, you know, where he ends up, I don't know, but his makeup, his ability, what he did in college, we know he's small. We'll talk so much about the rookies coming out. Where do you want him to end up, Andy? I may or may not have tagged Cliff Kingsbury right after this. You guys know I'm not the biggest Josh Rosen fan. And I know we'll talk about him on the show today as well, and I'll tell you why. But.

At the end of the day, Carla Murray has a good chance of being a high-impact fantasy player because of his dual threat ability, and there'll be other players in that category. But very interesting news, a couple big pieces of news today. And be sure that you grab the Sleeper app where you not only get news, but you can switch your Dynasty League over there to Sleeper. You can download it today. Sponsors of the News and Notes. You guys ready to talk a little rookie review? Yes. Rookie review.

That's very nice. Concise. Right to the point, Mike. Yep. All right. This is a very interesting, as we dive into fantasy rookie quarterback production and what they're capable of doing, this was a very interesting stat to me. The question being, can rookie quarterback sustain wide receiver production? Okay. So since 2004, so that's a big run, right? You've got a ton of years there. Rookie quarterbacks who play in 10 plus games.

They've sustained a top 12 wide receiver just 16% of the time. They've sustained a top 24 whiteout 22% of the time. They've sustained a top 36 wide out 32% of the time. What is the takeaway when you read that? I mean, we just talked about Kyla Murray, and there'll be other rookie quarterbacks getting a shot this year. Yeah, well, you take a look at the wide receivers that they had this year and see if they buck the trend, if they keep the trend. I mean, they're obviously...

part of the trend. Josh Rosen single-handedly has tried to bring that down as far as possible. Jarvis Landry finished it, wide receiver 18. Exactly. For Baker Mayfield, right? A wide receiver 2. I would say, I mean, we got a chicken and egg situation as well because if there is a rookie quarterback starting 10 plus games for a team, that seems probably not very good to start with. But it does help us when we look at play. I mean, I think this past year, you know, you wanted to see.

Quincy of Noonaw, Robbie Anderson and what Sam Darnold had to work with there as he learned the ropes. Baker Mayfield, it took him a while. He broke records. Still couldn't sustain a top 12 wide receiver. So we may have high expectations for the fit where these players are drafted, but you've got to bear in mind, you will be bucking the trend if somebody walks into Washington, okay, and takes over the quarterback position in year one.

And you end up with a wide receiver one. Well, to be fair, that they would be bucking the trend for all wide receivers in Washington. Yeah. Well, and like you said, a bit of a chicken or egg thing. But let's start with Baker. Obviously, the first overall pick in the draft, we did not talk about him in the quarterback truth episodes. He finished at QB 16. 19. Oh, yes, you're right. Yeah, 19. 19 was his consistency rank.

Pass for 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. Always difficult to evaluate rookies because there's a learning curve, a portion of the season where they are either, you know, for him, he had a different offensive coordinator or a different head coach. He busted half the time when he played. He was good 50% of the time. And then he was great just 14% of the time. But, you know, the sky's the limit for Baker and what he has the ability to do. Do we expect him to get there?

as soon as next year. Yeah, I really, really do. I think that what the Browns have done offensively, I mean, look, they're bringing in Kareem Hunt. They're not standing pat. They've, they took the offensive coordinator, promoted him to the head coach because they said, look, this is going to be an offense. This is going to be an offensive led team. And when you have the rookie first pick in the draft who comes in and breaks the NFL record for rookie passing touchdowns, and he did it without starting until week four.

You've got something special on your hands. And so going forward into next year, I will, you know, depending on where Baker's ADP will be, I don't think he can possibly leap most of the guys that go in the single digits. Because there's not that many quarterbacks that get drafted in the single digits anymore. You know, the late round quarterback thing is more and more common in all of your home leagues. And so there's going to be four or five, six quarterbacks drafted in those single digit rounds. I don't see Baker.

jumping ahead of them this season on draft price. But I could see Baker finishing, I mean, I think sky's the limit. If you told me that Baker's a top five quarterback next year, I can see that. I think he has the potential. That's the type of guy I want to draft. I want to draft a guy in the double-digit rounds who's like, maybe he doesn't take that leap yet. But he has the potential, the team, the offense, the coaching staff to really take over.

Baker will be top 12 next year. I agree with that, but he'll be drafted in the top 12 as well. Yeah, I mean, I'm not as bullish as you, Jay. I don't see top five as a potential outcome for Baker Mayfield next year. I don't disagree with you, Mike. I think 10, 11, 12, that's about where I'd have them. I'd still take a guy like Matt Ryan ahead of Baker Mayfield. Last year, third most passing yards per game ever by a rookie.

And it's great. It's great that he's breaking all these records for rookies, but they're still not putting him in the category of the upper echelon passers yet. And you saw that. Up and down games throughout the season, didn't have a game where he broke 30 fantasy points. Great player. Didn't really see a difference when he played top or bottom defenses. Didn't see a difference at home on the road. But I think, as it is with many of these guys, you have to leapfrog a Matt Ryan. You're going to have to leapfrog of Cam Newton.

You know, do you draft them ahead of a Matthew Stafford, probably? Yeah, 100%. You know, the ceiling is so much better for Baker. Yeah, the harder guys, like, will be DAC, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins. Who would you be taking Baker over those guys? I would take all three of those over Baker, I think. I think I would take Baker over all three of those. Whoa. Maybe not Kurt. Hey now. Yeah. Maybe not Kirk?

So Kirk would be the one that you might consider putting ahead of them? I feel like Kirk is falling because of the head coach or the office of coordinator changes. Mike, can you take your shirt off? I could. He wants to give it to me. I think Jason needs the Baker. Oh, you need the Baker. Oh, I mean, where are you with those? So you wanted some hot peck action. No, nobody needs those pepperoni. It's not a Super Bowl halftime show. Oh, goodness. You got the tats to support that, Mike. Now.

Where are you with Baker? The tats and the flaps. That's Mike. Those three names. Break it down for me, Baker Mania. Of those, man, that will be a really tough. Brooks is making a little show highlight note. Tats and flaps. That'll be a really, really tough one because of just trying to project the ceiling for Baker as opposed to those other players. I think Baker would, let's see, I would take.

Cousins over him. I would take Baker over Phillip Rivers just because of going for absolute ceiling. And Dak is going to be, I have to evaluate Dak more before I can make that call. I'm worried that we'll confuse on the field success with fantasy success for Baker because he's going to be a very good NFL quarterback. But I still think a lot of this offense is going to be predicated on the success of Nick Chubb. They just made another investment into the running game.

We'll see what happens. Yeah, I mean, I guess the reason I'm willing to take the leap is because let's say he turns into Hall of Fame caliber. You know, he was drafted as the number one pick. If he takes that leap, I want to be in before the draft price also takes that way. Because I'm fine. I'm fine pivoting off. He's not that great. Great. I'll stream the position. I stream the position most years. But I want to get in before everyone. I get that ceiling. A low cost opinion.

It was Pat Mahomes this last year. Yeah, if you believe that, the cost of believing that is nothing. I mean, if you if you're all in on Baker, you don't pay the price. I mean, you're going to pay a 10th round pick for it. Doing a low cost opinion draft big. That's one of my. That's one of my favorite strategy. One of your favorites. Yeah. By the way, we'll talk about Sam Darnold here. I didn't want to pause for a second because I forgot to remind the listeners out there.

If you are hungry for more episodes of the three of us, which is just very unlikely. But if you would like an extra show that entertains, and that's all it does, there's really nothing else, you should check out the Spitballers podcast because we drop a Spitballers podcast episode every Monday. Yep. It is replete with dad jokes, nonsense. Bad jokes. Bad jokes.