Fantasy Football - Stat Surprises + Sneaky Trades, Rice Reactions - Podcast for 5/21

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thanks, boys. Back again, the Fantasy Footballers. Jason Moore is here. Yes, I am. Mike Wright, present, accounted for, the Fantasy Hitman himself. Yes. Far less tired than Jason because he didn't play golf this morning. That is also correct. I'm Andy Holloway. Welcome in. It's every morning now.

It has been. You really did. Like, Mike is on the outside looking in. Yeah, and he can give the best commentary on what's happened. I mean. In the golf obsession. You did say it was your total and complete identity now. It's just who I am. I mean, normal people. You're a golfer. On the outside would call it a psychotic transformation. From never. Like, occasionally we'll mention golf, and we'll talk about it for a little bit. To playing. Every day. It is literally every single day. And if you don't play, then all of a sudden we get a message. Stopped at the range on my way home.

And you're like, okay. He's like, it's 8 p.m. I'm at the simulator place, guys. You're like, where is your family? I'm taking my son to lessons on Saturday. What are you talking about? I'm bringing him along. My daughter went golfing this morning. That's the way you do it. This is insanity. That's what we did with fantasy football. I was like. Jason went golfing. I've got to find a way to make money on this. It's just too good. Jason went golfing on Mother's Day with his wife. Yeah. I don't know how I got that one to work. But I did. Psychotic might be the right word.

Listen, the best advice we can give the football plan is if you have something you like, find a way to make it something you have to do. You're living. Something your family is required to participate in. I don't think you're quite ready to make a living on golf. I'm close, man. PGA. You know what? You're making the living of others. Yeah. I am supporting. The manufacturers. The entire industry, especially the putting industry. And when you get into golf, all of a sudden your reels and the ads you get served. Oh, my gosh. It's a big market. My algorithm knows who I am.

Yeah, your identity. To my core. We have a great show for you today. We are jumping into, well, a good quick question. We're looking at stat surprises from our individual projections for the 2026 fantasy season. We've all gone through and made our first draft heading into the, you know, soon to be released UDK here in less than two weeks. And so we're going to mention a few of the names that popped out in terms of, hey, I didn't realize, you know, we go out and we project every player individually. They're lined for the season. The game's played. Every bit of their projection.

And then we go look at the rankings. And sometimes we're really surprised. In both good ways and bad ways. Like, sometimes it's like, oh, wow, I didn't realize I was so bullish here. I know there's one I'm going to bring up here in a second. Sometimes you go, uh-oh. I go, yeah, I don't like this. This is not good. So, yeah, we have some of those names we're going to bring up. Real quick, we're going to give away the signed James Cook jersey. A winner has been selected. His name is Brad Davis. Brad Davis. Oh, Bradley Davis. Chris. Congratulations. I think the team has already emailed you or will momentarily.

And you've won a signed James Cook jersey. James Cook. Congratulations. The NFL's rushing. You got to do the cooking by the book. Yeah. You know you can't be lazy. The rushing leader. I forgot about that draft. Yeah. That was a little frightening. Oh, man. But, yeah, the UDK is just a couple weeks away. Less than that. You can check it out, ultimatedraftkit.com. Pre-order pricing will end when it's no longer a pre-order. You know? Because then it's just order price. It's just ordering. Yeah. So, quick question of the day, though. Let's start with Jason. Stat surprises in the UDK. You went through.

You looked at all the names and numbers. Yeah. So, three names that stood out to me. Basically different than, I think, what consensus is, for better or worse. Mike Evans, Derek Henry, and Luther Burden III. Mike Evans was high. He was my- Luther Burden III. He was my wide receiver, Jason. I know, man. This is the one. This is the one where I see it and I go, I do. So, here's the truth. I am terrified of it. I just literally yesterday watched more Luther Burden film. The way he moves is incredible. I love the guy. And then I go and I look at the Chicago Bears and I stat them out.

And Rome is going to be involved. And I don't think this is a world where you've got Caleb Williams throwing for 4,600 yards. I just don't think that's the identity of the team. I don't think that that is the Bears' normal method. I don't know if that's in Caleb Williams' cup of tricks this year. The cup of tricks? Yeah. Well, it's not a bag. He's got this cup right now. Or a bowl. Because those are for kids. I have him over 100 targets. You know, six and a half touchdowns. It's not a bad line, but it's certainly, if the Bears turn out the way that I view the Bears turning out,

it's going to be very difficult for him to capitalize on. You're drafting him way ahead of that. So, your three numbers, I don't think you said them all. So, Mike Evans, I've got at 21. That's above where people are drafting him, where most consensus rankings are. I believe he pairs perfect with Brock Purdy. ADP, I'm seeing 24 right now. So, you're above ADP. Brock Purdy throws a good deep ball and throws touchdowns. And Mike Evans can do those two things as good as anyone. He took the money. He doesn't throw them. Okay. I mean, I just want to be factored.

You're on fire, Mike. And, you know, I think it's a perfect pairing. They really need him, especially with George Kittle, Juwan Jennings being gone. Like, there is huge opportunity there. And he turned down a contract to go take it. So, I believe in Mike Evans this year. And then the other one was. I believe it's a perfect pairing between their injury staff and Mike Evans. Yeah. He's like, oh. So, no. If I go over there, no one's going to be mad if I miss four games. Yeah. That'll be the least amount missed by the team. And then the other one, we talked about this on the mock draft.

But I've got Derrick Henry at six, which is not outrageous at all, where he is being currently drafted, you know, dropping into the third round in a lot of leagues. I get it. He's old. But it's a very light depth chart there. Whoa. Not a depth chart. Yeah. Where did you? Yes. And they're going to be a team that wins a lot of games. We've been here before when you have made weird things with your throat. Yeah. Let's keep the depth charts away. All right. So, those were three guys that stood out to me as like, okay, I guess I'm really high

on Evans and Henry and I'm scared about Luther Burton. Yeah. I mean, the stats are the stats, even if that means you hate somebody now. A couple names that jumped out. I have Bo Nix at eight, which is six spots ahead of ADP. Belief in the bounce back. But I just think the amount – Waddle helps. Yeah. Waddle helps a lot. Last year was weird. I get it. I feel like it's make or break to some degree for Bo Nix to take a step forward. Just the way I started it out, he ended up at eight. I was a little shocked.

I'm not like the biggest Bo Nix fan, but just – It's so crazy. He finished last year as the quarterback six. Yeah. And it just feels like, no, he didn't because it was all so – Yeah. I mean, he's being drafted way – I mean, there were a lot of injuries last year at the quarterback position too. The players that were – Jaden Daniels never was out there. These guys that, like – Joe Burrow didn't play a full season. So, I think he wouldn't have finished at six, right? Right, right. With the points per game. On the same team, I've got R.J. Harvey, 14 spots behind ADP.

Yeah, take that. R.J. Harvey, really low. We just recorded – So, we're in the middle of recording the 100-player profile videos for the Ultimate Draft Kit, which those are exhausting but worth it. If you have the UDK, make sure you watch through these. They are very educational for all the relevant players. And visually upgraded. And visually amazing. Magic Mike's wall back here. We were not kind to R.J. Harvey as a group. No. No, I mean, the team – Oh, gosh. I knew if I said it, you would put it up. Yeah. I need – Those listening at home have no idea what's going on.

We need one when I can say you can throw it up real quick. R.J. Harvey had so much opportunity to secure the leading role last year. And then we came into the offseason, and I understand the numbers. Enough volume equals numbers, no matter who you are. But the efficiency, the advanced metrics, bad for R.J. Harvey. They spend the offseason flirting with every free agent running back. They draft Jonah Coleman. They signed J.K. Dobbins. The patience of Sean Payton is – it's not long. So I think that was a surprise to see how low I had him. I've got my homes at 20.

That feels weird. I'm not sure exactly where his ADP is. I think it's 12. So well below ADP there. And then Jamison Williams. I have him at 11. No one is surprised about that. I know you're not surprised. That's way above – Look, from I think week seven on, 81 for 1,408 was the pace. I know Laporta wasn't there. Jamo's a special player. He did a lot with a little – the volume increase that happened once they changed offensive coordinator play calling from Morton to Campbell. Campbell has such a heavy hand in this offense. We'll see what happens. But I like it.

I like the opportunity for Jamison Williams. I think he's still going to be of value. I think people are too down on him. And the rankings I'm about to talk about, this is how you know when we go in our – we do our projections of how we see a team shaking out that we aren't just saying, hey, I like that guy, and then I'm going to move him up, or I don't like that guy, I'm going to move him down. Because I currently live in the upside down where I have – look, I've projected Travion Henderson, player I love.

I've projected DeAndre Swift, player I have not said very kind things about. And Swift is so much higher than Travion Henderson. I have him as a mid-RB2. I don't see any way it doesn't happen. Meanwhile, Henderson's – And it makes you – This graphic is great. It makes you miserable. I hate that they're there. And I went – like I've double – I've triple-checked. I've gone into Henderson. And you're like, how – Is there anything that where I'm like – It's like the accountant with the – Yes. I'm like, well, I have – Let me double-check the map. Half a target share here, half a rush percent here.

It doesn't change that I have Swift projected for a much stronger fantasy football play than Henderson. Henderson is like Luther Burden. Things could go so right for that player, and then they're just going to be top-tier options. But the way I see the Patriots shaking out and the Chicago Bears, who – the Bears offense is going to be even – They're going to be even better this year. Imagine that offense and Caleb Williams completes, I don't know, 63% of his passes. What is that? You're asking a little too much. But how good is that team then? That team would be good.

It is ironic because I think the team, the Bears, if people are hearing me down on Luther Burden, I think the Bears offense is going to be outstanding. Luther Burden, a big part of that. But there's so many talented players there, and Swift will be a huge beneficiary. Yeah, Mike is – he's really in it with this whole situation. I hate it, but this is what it is, man. So, yeah. Play the market. You're high on Swift, lower on Travion than you'd like to be. Yes. And, you know, that's another one of the – we did Travion's video for the UDK.

You know, there's 100-plus player profile videos. We did Travion's, and it was like we have to acknowledge the real situation for each of these players. How many people are they sharing the backfield with? What's the true upside based on their offensive line, the chance these teams are around the goal line? I mean, there are a lot of discussions. We did Quinchon Judkins as well, who, you know, we had some video come out. He's looking pretty good in his recovery right now, but talking through the Browns and that offense. So, definitely check them out in the UDK. Let's talk news. News and notes from around the league.

Guess who's back? Rashi. Back again. Rashi Rice violated his probation by testing positive for marijuana. He has been ordered to serve 30 days in jail, which he was already going to have to serve. So, it – That is a point of clarification that we can share for people that we have – That wasn't new. Like, he – basically what happened was is he had been ordered through his last legal trouble situation. The freeway incident. He was ordered to serve 30 days in jail, but he had the – he had optionality as to when he would serve those 30 days by violating his probation.

Because his probation stipulated no illegal substances. And in Texas. And in Texas, it's an illegal substance. So, he had to follow one rule. He couldn't do it. And so, the judge basically said, well, guess what? You go – Right to jail. You go serve your 30 days right now. We also found out he is recovering from a cleanup surgery on his right knee that he just had. Yeah. So, he'll be recovering in jail. Yeah. He'll be rehabbing in jail and missing all the practice time with the team. Does he get, like, conjugals from doctors? Okay. What? He's got to be rehabbing.

I wouldn't – that's not what they'd call them, Mike. And I don't know if you know what that means. Oh, man. I sure hope not. I hope you don't know what that means. Oh. And no. Woo! It's going to be a good show. Maybe he's close with some PTs. That's too close. Matthew Betts, our injury expert, talked about the fact – we knew that in 2024 he had the season-ending knee injury, the LCL hamstring and PCL, right? And this surgery, I guess, is to remove loose debris. It's a concern for, according to Betts, a cartilage injury, which can be common with the previous one he suffered.

So, legal, medical, and really – And mental. And decision-making. Yeah. I mean, it's just – he is – he's not someone that you want to rely on. Also, contract. Now, for this season, we'll find out if a suspension comes from this. The NFL already looked in, said they weren't going to previously suspend him, but now there is new information, violating the parole. He could end up missing games. We'll find out as we come along. However, I think that he will still be good for fantasy this year. I have him on our main dynasty league. And I can't wait – Is that why you think that?

No, no, no, no, no, no. I cannot wait until he is scoring a lot of fantasy points in week five or week six, and I am going to do everything in my power to move on. I don't want – Because you want the next shoe to drop? Exactly. You know, it's not like he can't get out of jail and make another decision that is worse, you know, and then they go – and then he has a longer stint. He is so fragile, has no contract for next year, is team dependent. I think if he goes and signs somewhere else and isn't with the Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes thing,

I don't know that his skill set just applies to every team. So, from a dynasty perspective, I'm terrified. From a redraft perspective, this is not good, but I still think he'll be very valuable. We'll see, because the Shield, they just – they don't like when players show up in the news like this. Even though it was not an additional punishment for Rice, this is now, like, just flaring it up again. What is this, four different incidents? I mean, even though he didn't get punished for the last one that got, like, dropped or whatever, he's still in the news for something off the field, and it's disappointing and frustrating.

And, yeah, I mean, I was – like, he was ranked very high. I took a couple games off just as a kind of a hedge against the risk of the next decision and the fact he could get a suspension for a game. He could get it for two games. He could be dealing with this medical injury, you know, where it slows him down. I had been trying to trade for him in redraft in our League of Records. And thank goodness – Oh, boy. These two gentlemen to the left of me weren't willing to take a tradeoff or even send a counter

because they could have been out of Rasheed Rice for big money that I would never pay now. But, yeah, there's your Rasheed Rice update of the day, and I hope we don't have to keep giving them. Well, yeah, I mean, just, like, touchdowns only would be great. Cam Scadaboo. Yeah. He'll be ready to play in week one according to Cam Scadaboo. I mean, he's funny. I mean, Jackson Dart did come out and make a comment about the offense being run first. That's one of the things we talk about in the UDK about Jackson Dart when we were debating the merits of him as a breakout candidate.