Injury Prone Myths + Key Questions, Waiver Tips - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/30

It's here, the last Saturday show of the year. We're doing a live show in Los Angeles and we still got this content for you. We're answering your questions on today's show. Like the video, subscribe, smash that button, ring that bell and enjoy the show. Unless one has an affinity for looking ridiculously foolish, it is wise not to stumble aimlessly into a fantasy football draft. The ultimate draft kit from the fantasy footballers. contains all the information you need to avoid the jeers of your enemies and to snuff out any glint of hope in their souls. Imagine the gasps those trouser-wearing turnips will emit as you make yet another triumphant draft selection. Imagine their tears forming a formidable puddle as you assemble an unstoppable force. The ultimate draft kit comes bursting at the seams with fantasy goodness. When you enter the draft room,

You'll feel as if you were a monstrous beast let loose in a chicken coop. Head over to Ultimate DraftKit.com today. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the podcast. It's the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, nasty boys and girls. I am your host for today, Mike the Fantasy Hitman Wright, joined by my best friend Jason Moore. How you doing, best friend? Doing fantastic. Awesome. It's a Saturday show. Do we have anything going on tonight? We do. And so do, like, 300 people in Los Angeles. Those aren't some lucky people. You are, Jason, bringing up my spirits wearing a Muth is Luth. T-shirt. You got to get Luth. Yeah, I mean, the last time we were talking about and we're just... Yeah, we weren't... We were kind of bad mouthing the...

The situation. Yeah, the situation. The talent is there. I love Pat Fryer Muth. Yeah, we love the Muth. We are recording this a bit early because we are doing the live show, so we had to travel and everything. But, of course, we've got to get the podcast out as scheduled on Saturday, so everyone may mow their lawns and do the chores and hit the gymnasiums. But can you believe that Deshaun Watson News or what? Unbelievable. The suspension of games. I thought it would be. Yes, exactly. So, whatever, we're going to move on. But Ultimate Draft Kit, that is the only tool that you need for the draft season. Ultimate DraftKit.com updating all the time. When the Deshawn Watson News does break, that will be updated.

basically immediately, including the entire Cleveland Browns, because look, you know, we're trying to project what's going to happen over the season. And once we have further information, we update, such as Julio Jones being added on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, we put him in immediately. So it's always, always changing and morphing around there. Ultimate draftKit.com, if you do not have it. Follow us on the socials, Instagram.com slash fantasy footballers. You can find Jason at Jason FFL. I am at FFHitman. And Andy is at Andy Holloway. The quick question of the day, Jason, at what point do you start to consider someone to be injury prone? When they've hurt me personally. If I've drafted them. That's the real answer. Honestly, 100%. If you had Christian McCaffrey.

in one of these last two years. That, like, he's, he's made out of glass. Well, if you've had him, if you've had him both years, oh gosh, he's 100% injury prone, but he's made out of peanut brittle. In reality, uh, injury prone isn't, isn't necessarily a thing, you know, uh, you know, Matthew Bats, our injury expert made some notes on this when injury prone is more of a reaggravation of existing injuries. If you're a soft tissue issue guy, who constantly through a career is really dealing with hamstring issues and, you know, the quads and things like that, that becomes a little bit of an injury-prone nature. There's medical, you know, data to show that injuries have a chance of happening again. You know, a typical re-injury rate on a previous injury, like a hamstring injury, is...

30% across the same season, biggest risk being within the first two weeks. Or Dalvin Cook's shoulder injury, shoulder dislocations. Those typically are around 20% chance of having that re-injured. Now, not a worry with Dalvin Cook because he'll just wear the device. Yes. And dominate. He don't need no shoulder. The device. But, you know, there's other players like, I think my favorite example is Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen was super injury prone. And the reason he was injury prone or thought of as injury prone is because he had a myriad of different injuries, a PCL in college, a fractured clavicle, a shoulder injury. Remember the... This is the big one. The lacerated kidney. What in the world? I mean, dude could not stay healthy. But if you actually think about that, those are completely different fluke injuries that just...

happened. We're playing a violent sport. I mean, we're not. Oh, no. We're like chilling, feet up. I am way too soft for that life. I mean, I won't even watch football like without air conditioning. Oh, I'm not going to the backyard to watch football. No. It might be uncomfortable. Yeah, and I'm not dealing with that. So, but these guys are warriors. Yes. And so, you know, these injuries can happen. But when you've got those type of things where a player has a bunch of different things that are just, Like Christian McCaffrey, totally different things. Or even Sequin last year where, you know, he goes and accidentally steps backwards rolling his ankle on another player. That's not a player being injury prone. That's, you could say like, oh, he's got terrible luck. Yes, you can say. Don't gamble. You know, things like that. But, no, I worry more about degenerative issues. You know, when Todd Gurley had an e-issue,

twice in the same knee and then, you know, those started talking about, well, it's degenerative. Yeah, that's, it's not injury prone. It's just you've got an injury that's going to continue to get worse. Correct. And we do have a full slate of analysis on all of the injuries from Matthew Betts, the injury report inside of the ultimate draft kit. News and notes from around the league. Again, we are recording a little bit early, so lighter on the news as of right now. But Gino Smith is working with the first team offense on the opening day of Seahawks training camp. I think that this is like low-key, great news that Drew Locke is playing with the second string because the way that Peach Cobbler up there just chomping around was talking about Drew Locke. He was really pumping the tires up.

Trying to convince us all that Drew Luck is fantastic. If you were in the draft, he'd be the number one quarterback in this year's draft class, yada, yada, yada of, holy crap. Is Pete Carroll really believe this and is going to start Drew Locke? Because we've seen Drew Luck enough to know that he's not that dude. He was surrounded by talents in Denver. Couldn't do anything with it. Gets beat out by Teddy Bridgewater because if you recall last year, The way that the year started of it was a camp battle with Bridgewater and Drew Locke. So if you have this kind of sense and memory of, well, Drew Locke. He finished the season. He played a lot. No, it was Teddy Bridgewater's team because he was better than Drew Locke. Yeah, Drew Locke played three games. He started three games last year. That's it. It was the last three games. Ironically, Gino Smith also started three games last year. What if I told you Gino Smith was good?

And those starts. He, well, I wouldn't believe you if you said. You're a wise man. But what we do know is D.K. Metcalf was okay with Gino Smith. I mean, one of the games, it was basically this 90-yard house call touchdown. And that was all of his production. But D.K. was okay when Gino Smith was the guy. It would, D.K. fell off when Russell Wilson. managed to get back on the field and his hand wasn't completely healthy. So if Gino is the guy for Seattle, this is great news that you don't have to be as concerned. Yeah, I have Gino Smith statted for the majority of the work this year. I mean, he was, he wasn't great, but he wasn't terrible. He had a QBR rating of 107.4 through that. In those three games, had I think four or five touchdowns, no interceptions.

It wasn't great, but he didn't play terrible. He's not Drew Luck. I would expect him to win the job. What should be a little bit concerning for D.K. Metcalfe is he is doing the hold-in. D.K. Metcalf, Debo Samuel, Deontay Johnson. At the time of this recording, no contracts for them. They are holding in. I expect that D.K. and Debo will get resolved sooner than later. Deontay. at least the way that the Steelers talked about it, that one seems a little bit sketchier. Yeah. You know, the reality is the contract situation is different with the new CBA versus, you know, if you've been playing fantasy for a while and you worry about missing games, it takes a lot more to miss games now. The hold end, they're there. They're not even missing practice. Right. They still could, but that would take.

that would take some gall and some gumption to sit there on the active roster and somehow not play. So I expect Debo's to get done. D.K. Metcalf, don't forget, I know he is back at practice holding and not practicing, but he also did have a foot issue this offseason. They say it's all gone, you know, that he's ready to go, but since he's not practicing, it's like I'd like to see him practicing after the foot issue. Yeah, I mean, really, if you look at the ultimate draft kit, and you see a higher risk rating for those players. It's just because until that situation is resolved, there is a non-zero chance that those players try to, you know, take it into the season. All right. If we have the hype train drop, go ahead and hit it for me because this one is... This one hurts me. All right, I will do it. I will do it. Nice. We didn't double hit it. News at a Buffalo. Jameson Crowder is...

He's missing some time here with General Soreness. Yeah. I get it. I wake up every day with General Soreness, my man. So I am there. I understand it. But in his absence, Isaiah McKenzie has been a standout, quote, standout almost every single day. And that's coming from an athletic beat reporter. It's not coming from one reporter. Are you sure? That's what, like this one, you know, you've got to watch Camp Speak. You've got to filter this stuff out. Most of this is all nonsense. And this is still just fluff and hype. But at the same time, the reason this one hurts is because, you know, we had a mock draft a while ago. I took James McGrath at the end. I view Isaiah McKinsey or viewed. It's starting to change. Isaiah McKinsey is a really important.

special teams player. Right. And so I did view them bringing James and Crowder in to come and play the Cole Beasley role and keeping Isaiah McKinsey in the valuable role he already had. It just wasn't valuable for fantasy. But the reason this hurts is because I've always loved Isaiah McKinsey. Last year when Cole Beasley missed the game. It was like, oh, he's got his opportunity the year before when Cole Beasley missed games. And he had the opportunity. He was great. Week 16 at New England 11 for 125 and 2. Yeah. And so I really like him. And I have not been taking a lot of shares. And so I'm a little sad. I'm thrilled that he has been dominating. I hope he wins the job. I hope he gets the opportunity. If he does, I think he's going to be very, very good. But I'm just sad because I haven't been on it when I've liked the dude.

All right. Let's get into your questions. Mailbag. Mailbag. Ooh, yeah. Jason. Really sounded like they were my questions. You really emphasize that they were my questions. I was going, this is the universal. Okay. So what is the... Do you have a question for the podcast, Jay? Maybe by the end, maybe by the end. All right. Producers, do you have a question for the show? Oh, here's my, okay, here's a question from. I was talking to the producers. Oh, well, I don't care about them. All right. This question is from Jason Moore. Yeah. With the recent injury to Ryan Jensen, center for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, having also lost other offensive pieces, what is your view of the impact this could make on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? So, it, we didn't bring it up because we don't have.

full we don't have the full news yet we know what we do know about the injury is the helmet slam he went down apparently the team kind of gathered around him which heart came out when the team comes around like these players they know i mean like they know each other and they can kind of sense a bad injury so hopefully they're wrong and they're just being cautious but i mean that hit to an offensive line like that level of a player, that certainly impacts thing. I mean, they have enough time to try to figure something out before the season starts. As of right now, I'm not modifying like my Brady stats, my Fournette stats, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. Okay. This question, not from Jason, comes from off the website Nick in Milwaukee. Will George Kittles value go up or down with Trey Lance at quarterback?

His average draft price will go down. I believe that he will be less desired, and we've seen that. He's dropping into the fifth, six round sometimes in best ball leagues, where his actual value go up. I mean, value is based on where you're drafting him, so I think it kind of will. If he falls from the, you know, the third round where he's lived over the last few years to the fifth round, I don't see him taking a major step backwards. He can stretch the field at the tight end position and Trey Lance is willing to throw the ball deep. So I think it fits what Kittle does. And if he drops an average draft position, then that means his value goes up. We do have some numbers. We have 35 games George Kittle has played with Jimmy Garoppolo.

and 17 games he has not played with Jimmy Garoppolo. His numbers in those 17 games without Jimmy are actually up. Pretty significantly. Yeah, we're talking like he's playing with C.J. Bethard and Nick Mullins. We're talking about. Entre Lance. Three points a game better, a half a reception better, and just, and nearly 20 yards better per game. I mean, 17 games is not. Nothing. No, no, no. That's a large sample. And we, we, George Kittle is a dominant physical force. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is. He's going to dominate on the field for whoever is throwing the ball. It's like, oh, who should I get the ball to? Maybe the dominant guy. That makes sense. I would be curious because I know that these are simple splits just in and out with Gropolo. But.

Debo's been known to miss some time over the last few years. Sure. So I wonder how much the missing quarterback correlates with that because I do know when Debo is gone, Kittle has much more inflated numbers. That being said, I don't think Trey Lance takes a big hit to his production, which I think that's the heart of the question. Does his production go up or down? I think his production stays doing what George Kittle's been doing. Instagram, Tim wants to know, well, first, bonjour from Germany. Oh, bonjour. Bonjour. Keep Justin Herbert in the 8th or Trey Lance in the 13th. This is a fun one because we love Trey Lance. Yes. But this is Justin Herbert. Even my desire for Trey Lance on every single one of my teams, I don't think I would pass on Justin Herbert in the 8th. This isn't close. I mean, Trey Lance could be a top five guy. Right.

Justin Herbert is guaranteed to be a top five guy. Justin Herbert is my quarterback two right now, and it could be the quarterback one very easily. On the sleeper app, his current ADP is the back of the third round. So, I mean, a substantial discount for Justin Herbert. I mean, quarterback's going in the eighth. You know, Brady Rogers. So, you know. What matters to me is not the quarterbacks that are going there, but what are the other positions going there? When you get to the eighth round, you're taking flyers on your running backs, on your wide receivers. You're not, you know, we talk a lot about the opportunity cost. The reason we don't draft Justin Herbert, you know, or even Josh Allen in the third round is because there's great players there. You're missing out on something awesome. In the eighth round, there's some good shots you could take, but they're not known guaranteed commodities. So, yeah, take Justin Herbert's upside in the eighth.

A couple people want to talk about Fab. We got Giuseppe. Fabulous. From Ontario, Canada. Oh, bonjour. Yeah, there we go. Hey, Ballers, first year of using Fab from a home league looking for tips and strategies about it. And so overall, look, if you're new to fantasy football and talk about Fab, what it is, it's a different way to handle your waiver wire. So normally. Better. Yes. We'll get there. We're giving the facts right now. That's what I was doing. Which I guess if actually it's better. So usually the waivers, the way that they happen is whoever has the worst record, they have the first pick of the waivers for tiebreakers and so on. And then once you use that first overall pick, you rotate to the bottom of the list and so on and so forth. What Fab is, that's a free agent budget. And what that gives is,

a way for everyone to, regardless of your win-loss record, have a shot at anybody you want on the waiver wire. You go in and you make a blind bid of, say, for an example, week one, running back X explodes, looks like he's going to be the dude for his backfield. You can go in and say, well, I'm going to, I don't really believe this is going to, I don't believe it's real, so I'll make a, 15% or 15 of my fab dollars or points, whatever you want to call them, to put that player on my team. And someone else drops 55. And so the person with the 55, they would get the player off the waiver wire. It's just it evens the playing field that everyone gets to make a choice of when you want to go in on players. How hard do you want to go after a player on the waiver wire? It takes some convincing to get people in on it.

But it really adds a whole new layer of strategy each and every week and it's more fun. That's the issue. It's like, okay, there is more strategy, but there's so much more fun. Yeah. Because the waivers is really like, oh, you know, usually when it's in just a waiver claim system, you already know who's getting the number one pick because it's whoever's highest on the waiver report. Maybe you hope he doesn't take him. Like that's the only drama. is like, oh, maybe he chooses someone else and it'll go to the second guy. But when you're, when everyone is bidding and you can't wait to see what every single person in your league thought that Cordero Patterson was worth early last year and someone paid up and you're mocking them. And then it goes on and it just stays great all year. It is so much fun. It's fun every week. It's fun every day when it roll, you know, it's just a great time. But I do have one issue.

Okay. With whoever created the FAB system. Do tell. You said that it is a free agent budget. Right. F-A-B. Yes. Well, that would work. We call it FAB. Yes. And that answers the... It is a free agent budget. Yes. But no, no, no. They were like, well... I've come up with this great system. I call it the free agent acquisition budget. Right. F-A-A-B. And you could just say FAB. It's like the acquisition is unnecessary. Correct. It should just be a free agent budget. And that's why I dropped it out. Yes. Why did they, like, they made a wheel. They invented the wheel and then they put, like, they put things on the outside of the wheel to make it a bumpy ride. It just bedazzled it.

You don't need it. Free agent budget. And then there was a follow up off of YouTube from Ty says, how much fab should each team get at the start of the season? I mean, this is just, we go with 100. I think that's pretty standard. You can do really whatever you want. When we give our advice throughout the season, we try to talk about it in terms of percentage. Which 100 makes it very easy. Yeah, it makes it real because when we're like, hey, I'm going to go 20%. So that's 20. Yeah. Quick math. So, I mean, if you want to be more in line with our advice, you go with the 100. And it's, again, it's just so much fun. If you're watching the show, whenever the waivers run and they run very frequently when we're recording, we all kind of.

go in there. Like we kind of forget about the show for a moment and we go see what happened in our home leagues. It's a lot of fun. Now getting back to Giuseppe because I realized we described what Fab was but didn't answer his question at all. Oh yeah, for the tips and strategies for someone new. First things first, if this is new for your whole league, which I imagine it is, maybe you are the only new player, but assuming that this is new for your league, spend a little bit more than you think in the beginning because people will be hesitant.

And you'll get everybody. Everyone wants to save and they're going to be like, you know, they're all new to it. So they're like, I'll pay five. I'll pay six. I'm going to pay up. I'm going to go $9. And it's like, just go $20. Get the guy. Because you'll see as the years go on that people get more and more aggressive when they want their guy, they're going to drop 70% of their budget. That's one tip. I would not drop all of it. That's another one. I always want $5 left going into my playoffs. So when I get down to about $5 free agent dollars, I am basically viewing it like I'm out of money and making $0 bids because I really want a few bones to play keepaway. You know, if my opponent has run out of money and we're in the playoffs and he needs a defense, I get the defense. Right. He needs a quarterback to stream. I get the quarterback. And it can really make an impact.

worth more than whatever the $5 that you're spending in week 12, 13, 14 are going to do for you. This one's off of Instagram from the Dochalidae. Nailed it. Of course. After Aaron Rogers spoke so highly of Alan Lazard, does that change his ADP? For a week. Yeah, I don't know that him necessarily saying that. Like the people over on underdog for basketball drafts, which are. putting money on the line. People are becoming either more comfortable or at least just accepting the risk. If I'm going to take the shot, Lazard seems like he's going to be the number one guy. Julio was gone now. That was kind of the big domino to fall. And like OBJ is out there, but OBJ is not going to be ready to. He's not going to be ready to play football. Will Fuller is the only name left that's like a major free agent piece that.

And it's like, would Will Fuller going to Green Bay change how you feel about Lazard? Not really. Not for me. No. Okay. So he's just, yeah, I think Lazard is extremely interesting. And it's not the way that Rogers is talking. It's just, you know, things are shaking out that they were there at a time that Lazard is now the de facto number one. Yeah, I mean, this has already been happening. Lizard. Lizard has a higher ADP than Aaron Rogers. He's being drafted ahead of Rogers in Underdog, and I have quite a few shares. I don't, this news is going to just be wisp in the wind. There's so much news coming out. Him talking positive of Alan Lazard is meaningless. He's done it before. Yeah, I mean, this is, don't worry about those little fun fluff pieces. But in your home leagues, Alan Lazard, at least at this point, still remains someone who should be a.

a pretty strong draft value on Sleeper going in the double-digit rounds. We'll see if that holds up. All right, let's take a quick break and get back to more of your questions. Off the website, Nick in Los Angeles, got the 102 for redraft. This is a full point PPR 10 team. How high is too high to draft Cooper Cup? There isn't a too high because if you took up at the 101, I'd be like, okay. I mean, he... Wow, okay. So even over Johnny T. He would, I wouldn't do that. I'm taking Cooper Cup at the three. I want John to the Taylor. I want Christian McCaffrey. Cooper Cup is my three. But I don't think that there, I mean, when you're talking about a guy, you're willing to draft at three. Can you really say that there is a too high? Sure. He's so close there. But you're at the 102. If you prefer Cooper Cup to the running backs there, then have that it. I will say this. Historically speaking, the top scorers.