Fantasy Football - Early Busts + Early Values - Podcast for 6/11

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thursday, June 11th, the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome in, one and all. We are talking about early value picks, early bust picks on today's show.

Just got done with some breakouts on the last episode, some sleepers on the last episode as well, and we're happy to have you with us. I won't bring up golf unless you want me to, Jay. I don't even know what that is. There have been my- I used to play that game. Well, see, that's the thing where- Mike just shakes his head in just full judgment on all of us that are- Because Mike is just above it or below it, I don't know. There's the golf course right back behind you. That's definitely not Arizona right now. Take away the trees-

And add fire. And desaturate the grass. Mike, don't you- And just be dead. Don't you take like some- Aren't you kind of impressed that we- Like we would start to get into playing golf while it's the hottest time of the year and we're still doing it? Like, isn't that commitment? That is- Isn't that like- You are showing a true love of the game. A true love of the game is what Jason has. Not experienced today. But, you know, we're good. It was a long time ago. People are just- Every time we talk about it, they're like, what's your score? What's your actual score?

I'm not asking, but I mean like- Right now- I did reply to one person. Like, we played at a par 72. Yeah. 18-hole course. You shot a 95, right? Correct. 96, I think. Okay. 95, 96. Al, what did you shoot? I was 95. Oh, that's right. Yeah. So, I mean, people wanted to know. They didn't know. And now they know. People took guesses at the handicaps and things like that. And we are definitely handicapped on the course. Yeah. That is for sure. Early busting values, NFL news, mailbag show today. I feel like we've been watching, Jason, you in particular today as well,

just a lot of quarterback film. Yeah. Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Michael Pennix, Drake May. Trying to just remember and actually watch through what happened. And when you're watching the games, especially the way that we watch them, right? We're watching them live on Sunday and we're watching eight or nine games at once. You're taking in all these plays and then you do the analysis and the analytics and all that. But it's really different when you can watch everything cut up and just watch one player throw all of his passes. One player catch all of his targets. You know, you just watch them over and over and over and over.

And then you compare that to another quarterback right afterwards and you go, wow, I didn't, I didn't remember how freaking bad Michael Pennix was, for instance. Right. I was like, okay. That was one of your takeaways. That was one of my big takeaways. It wasn't a good one. Okay. So two was the starter after watching that film. I was like. Not good. Michael Pennix was terrible. Just downright disgusting. Would you say that Cam Ward's film was better than Michael Pennix? Yes. And it wasn't great. Cam Ward's was not great. Correct. But compared to Michael Pennix, it was awesome. You're correct.

Yeah. We watched Caleb yesterday. I know you're watching some Jacoby today. Caleb had a lot of downfield passes. I was very impressed with Caleb. I'm the more that I've been watching all these players. I'm just, man, I'm like, I think I'm like really in on Caleb this year, both for fantasy and for, I think he's going to take a massive step forward. I don't know if I saw one of those passes that Caleb under through. I think 90% of them, they were like, your adrenaline is. He ain't no Tua. No, his adrenaline was going and he was overthrowing. But what a laser.

But the more football film you watch, the more excited I got. You know, it's funny. We're going to talk about the bust picks in a little bit. And watching the Caleb film really made me confident in my bust pick today. Oh, okay. Yeah. All right. Well, I don't know what your bust pick is. There you go. So I'll find out with everyone else. Mike is not happy with Mike. No. The people. The people hate it. The people are pretty fine with it. Are the people Mike? No, the people. Oh, okay. The UDK is out right now. The Ultimate Draft Kit.

UltimateDraftKid.com. Go pick it up and you can get access to the ever-growing, improving, changing, evolving Ultimate Draft Kit through the entire offseason before you draft in August and get things started in September. JoinTheFoot.com is a community. You can follow us on Instagram, Instagram.com slash fantasyfootballers. Quick question of the day was sent in by Zach in Arkansas. Do you have a different strategy between a home league or a more competitive league? Or a different strategy between the two types? ADP. I'll jump in and it's ADP. We play a very market-based game during the period of the draft, especially. ADP is everything.

You know, the wisdom of the crowd or the ignorance of the crowd as well. When you're in a home league, far more players are not going to be researched. They're there to have a good time. You're there to win. So you can take advantage of that because those players are going to be looking at the ADP and whatever their draft platform is and not take any risks and not realize, well, I'm going to get value, where when you're in a competitive league, ADP can work against you because you're staring at that. You were just in your home league and you're like, man, I got this player.

Two rounds later, I'm going to sit and wait. And then you get sniped because there's other people who are in the know. They listen to the information. It doesn't go according to the script. It can work against you and you think you know exactly how the draft is going to go. So you're going to play the game with the ADP and when you're in the competitive league, it just it doesn't work like that. You you really just have to draft the players that you're wanting to draft, not let the the flow of the room disrupt that. Yeah. And I would say when I'm in a home league, what you just said, you said it for a different reason.

But I tend to like in a home league, it's a little easier. You could take advantage. You can, you know, kind of crush souls, but also just take take the guys you want to watch. Like that's when I'm playing in a league that is just far more for fun. I want to enjoy just where you get shares of the players. Exactly right. I'm like, I'm going to take my dude. Yeah. No, I mean, it makes sense. I don't think, you know, it's certainly different dynamics between both of them. You know, your home leagues are where you where you find a lot of those hometown players end up going a lot higher.

But, yeah, some structural differences there. Let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league. Well, these tight ends are tough, right? Tucker Craft says he anticipates playing in week one without a snap count. Craft and Kittle, man. Craft and Kittle. Kittle and Kraft. Tough guys. Yeah, they are. I mean, Mike brought them up recently. I think maybe on the last episode just about how you feel like you're going to fall for this trap. Oh, I'm like, I'm a, yes, I, they're, they're, they're getting me. I'm pretty convinced. Yeah, you're, you're going to be in on Kraft. And it's, I can't argue that much against it.

If he looks good and he's there early, I will, I will adjust. Right now, I still have him a little lower in my rankings due to the fact that he is coming off of the, you know, the massive surgery and might not be ready for week one. But his breakout was legit. It really was. Going back and looking at his game log last year, it wasn't just the final, like, you know, it felt like kind of what we experienced with Travis Hunter. Where it was like really one game where he had this massive breakout and then got injured. Because it did happen where after a massive game he got injured.

But he was having good weeks every single week. And he was a big, important part of their team. And I know you like Christian Watson a lot this year. And part of the reason for that is you buy into the offense. Romeo Dobbs is gone. Matthew Golden hasn't proven that he can be that guy yet. So one of those two, Christian Watson or Tucker Kraft, are going to, going to score a lot of fancy points. Well, that'll be fun to watch for training camp time. Speaking of training camp, Alec Pierce's ankle surgery could end up lasting into training camp. So he may not come back until the back half of training camp is the way it sounds right now.

Again, I don't think you pay a guy $100 plus million if you have any concerns about it. Oh, long term. It's also not an ACL or a knee situation. Long term is fine. It's just short term. Like, is he ready to go week one? That's something to watch. I think if he gets back for any training camp, he'll feel a lot better about it. Zach Charbonnet, more injury updates. Seahawks running back. Got in some light field work with trainers at winning camp. Very light. 15 minutes of high knees. But that's good. Dude, I could knock out 15 minutes of high knees.

You could get some light on field work done at training camp. I could knock out five minutes of high knees. Five minutes? I don't know about 15 minutes. Oh? There you go. Do you know how long five minutes is for high knees? I could knock out a minute of high knees. Yes, there you go. Going back to the Alec Pierce thing, I'm just curious because we had this debate about Alec Pierce recently. I feel like they're going to keep him in the same role. You feel like the opportunity is there because with Michael Pittman gone and Adonai Mitchell, there's a ton of targets that are needing to go somewhere.

Do you think this hurts his opportunity missing the first half of training camp or more? I'm not there. I'm not there where I'm worried about it yet. It just feels like if you're going to have him miss the training, it would be easy to be like, well, you're going to do what you did last year. You already know all of it. I mean, his wide receiver target percentage last year in a bunch of these games was very, very high. And this was with an active Michael Pittman. I still think that you have a situation where this is their dude. I mean, name somebody else that's going to step into his role.

Tyler Warren. Well, no. He plays tight end. Josh Downs. No, he's little. Okay. Those are the two. If you had another name, like if you told me that there was somebody else that could step into that situation, those guys, if you talk about a role for those guys, they're defined. They're certain. Josh Downs is not moving outside. So I don't have the fear right now. No, I don't. And the money talks to me. If the ankle starts talking to me later, then we'll have another conversation. You want to know a name that was uttered by the coach of the Colts recently?

I don't think I want to know it. I'm only bringing it up because it's such. Westbrook Akina? No. It's insane. Laquan Treadwell. Oh, Laquan Treadwell. I feel so much better about Pierce just by you saying that. This was not an argument for anything. No, I know. It was simply like. Who? What? Do you have the quote? Do you have the actual quote? Oh, let me. You posted it this morning, and I believe your words with it was, this was a real life quote. I'm really proud of Laquan Treadwell's growth and development is essentially what he was talking about. How many years has he been in the league?

It's got to be seven years. He's been forever. He's in a minute now, guys. I'm really proud of his development. He's really. He's 30. This is a grown man. Maybe he just meant like his physical development. Maybe he meant like as a person off the field. Yeah, man. Yeah. Maybe he's like. Not football. Not like route tree or anything. Maybe he's like donating his time. Yeah. You know, just a good guy. Who knows? Well, back to Zach Charbonnet. The expectation is October at best for Zach Charbonnet, which means Jadarian Price is going to have an out of the gate opportunity on the defending champs to get a ton of run.

I mean, he maybe not all of it. You know, you can say George Helani is going to get work and sure, but you drafted a. There's only first round running back. If you say George Helani's name three times in a row, the Helani Hive will show up. You and two friends? No, I'm just saying like they're out there. I'm warning you. They are scary people. Yeah, let's move on. They meet in the cover of darkness. We won't talk too much about that. I did. I bumped. I bumped Price up a bit, which is why it will be so hilarious when Helani is the starter.

That's twice. Do you think the price of Price will increase? Yes. I mean, most of these rookies will be higher drafted, closer to the season than they are right now. More off season. We haven't hit the hype train in a little bit, but let's do it because it's worthy. I miss our old hype train. You always have. I like when we scare people on the road. Do I have to stop the train? Is that my job? Hey, you can't stop the train. Oh, okay, because it really does go on forever. Bashaw Tootin continues to look like one of the most explosive elements of the entire Jacksonville

offense. I mean, with Crod not there, he has the opportunity to just take the HN role. If you're drafting at all right now, you should be taking this discount because I don't think his ADP is going to hold. It feels like Jacksonville is primed to be the maybe hype center of the offseason right now because we've gotten Bashaw Tootin. We get the every day. It's Trevor Lawrence and BTJ look so good together. But yet ADPs are fine. Yeah. I mean, sir, Mike, it's June. What I'm saying, well, Tootin could rise. Thank you, Jason. He could rise up dramatically. But the wide receivers, no one has any idea what to do with them.

So I think they're going to stay late no matter what. Well, because they all have equal hype. You know, Travis Hunter will get hype and Parker Washington will get hype. And yeah, but Bashaw Tootin continues to look like he wants the lead job. Todd Monken, Brown's head coach, that is, not Baltimore's offensive coordinator anymore. Brown's head coach, Todd Monken, said he's unlikely to name a starting quarterback by the conclusion of the mini camp. Oh, man. So that'll go into training camp. The advantage. Honestly, I don't think. I think he really needs to figure this out. I do. This one isn't a competitive advantage.

This is like, dude, I have no idea. I have to. When you have to pick one of these two guys, you're like, ah, give me more time. Yeah. I mean. He's actively looking into the outs of his contract. Like, do I have to coach this team? Which faulty parachute do I jump out of this plane with? I think he's going from circus to circus looking for Zoltron machines and just like trying to make wishes here. Like, please. Is that a big reference? It was. Hot current reference. Well, we'll start. We'll start talking about some, you know, some players we think might disappoint in just a minute.

Before we jump into our early bust picks on today's show, I do want to say this. You said good luck, Monkin, right before the break. And the two coaches, I think, that look the most in trouble are ironically on the opposite ends of the age spectrum. When I watch Todd Monkin try to. And yet, very predictable that them going to those franchises would be like, good luck. Yeah. I mean, the Cardinals new head coach, Woody Woodpecker. Dude. I see it. It's you. You don't want to just destroy a man because of some aesthetic choices. But. Oh, so. And then Todd Monkin, like he's the older elder statesman in those situations are kind

of how both would find themselves in a head coaching job. The Cardinals and the Browns are not serious. No, they are not. Well, speaking of us. The Cardinals. Bus. I forgot the video was you. You're Humpty Dumpty in that situation. Well, I am an egg. And you fell off. Not necessarily. Because. There are other eggs with different names. Well, there are other eggs. Also, I believe there's nothing in the nursery rhyme that actually says Humpty Dumpty is an egg. Yeah, but we all know. But we are assuming. But has it ever been proven that Humpty Dumpty is? Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall.

Yeah. He had a great fall. Okay. All the king's horses. All the king's men. They couldn't put Humpty back together again. But why is he an egg? Many things would break if they took a great fall. What is he if he's not an egg and his name's Humpty Dumpty? That's not a great name. No. But. You think there's one person named that? In the. In the world? No. Because if your last name is, in fact, Dumpty. Kyle. You're not going with Humpty. I want to. If your last name is. John. I'm John Dumpty. If your last name is Dumpty, please reach out.

I just want. I want to meet you. Just like. Free tickets to our live show. That's Mr. Dumpty to you. Dumpty. No one with the last name of Dumpty goes Humpty. You got to be an egg to be a Dumpty. All right. Kyle's diving in. He's going to do the research for us. Nursery Rhymes is where it's at. We are starting with our bus picks, Jason. Let me define this for the listening audience here. Not players that we're saying are guaranteed to fail, but have some things that maybe are working against them or represent high risk. Or maybe things look beautiful on the outside.