Fantasy Football - Early Busts + Early Values - Podcast for 6/11

It's a completely different offense that will be happening. Do you see the possibility of Jacoby Lane and Sarac competing? For the wide receiver three spot, yeah. But I mean, like, being more part of the offense? I do not. Especially with what I'm reading so far. I mean, it's Bateman still locked in as the two. Bateman and Treadwell are going to be there forever. Bateman just keeps cashing huge checks, though. The team, he is the number one target when it comes to passing offense. The passing offense of the Baltimore Ravens wasn't actually that good last year, if you remember. Lamar Jackson did not have his finest year, missed a bunch of games.

And so for Flowers to do what he did last year just speaks to me of this is a good player who has gone from 24 to 25 to 29% of the targets. I mean, you push 29, 30% again, and you just get a little bit of touchdown luck. He can easily squeak in and repeat a top 10 performance. I don't have him statted there nor projected there. But betting on talent, Zay Flowers is locked in there. Breaking news. We have a new deal for Patrick Mahomes. Is that what just broke? That is what is breaking. The total value of the deal.

Very expensive. So the new money. They were riding cheap with Mahomes for a while. The new money on the deal is worth $239 million. The total value of the deal is $504.75 million from 2026 to 2033. There will be more updates like this over the course of that time as well. Half a billion. It's all guaranteed. $504 million guaranteed. No. It becomes guaranteed through contract mechanisms, according to Adam Schefter. Because the first four years are being guaranteed at signing. Right. But it says all 504 becomes guaranteed through contract mechanisms. Okay. So it'll be like. He can earn up to 522.

And boy, he must really want that. You got to. Whenever I'm making 504, I'm like, how can I get to 522? You want to motivate a man. The deal averages $64 million per year. Okay. Kansas City. Cardinals are going to have to pay Jacoby now. Do you think that this. Yeah. They should have got that deal done. They got a $3 million deal for Jacoby Brissett. And they just shelled out $522 million. Did we cause this to happen? Talking about how McAfee was going to make more than Mahomes on last episode? Because he was asking for $60 million a year.

They probably didn't. No, they're like. They probably. Yeah. McAfee's not. No way. Did you hear that? $64 a year. Did you hear those fantasy nerds talking about that money? Yeah. Wow. Congratulations. Kansas City. Unleash. The offense. Figure it out. Mahomes has the least deep touchdowns in the league. The last. Couple years. Four years. Sorry. BNME's back. The thing about the Chiefs. The high playing. Sign Tyreek. Like. You should. They really should. When the Chiefs were destroying everybody. And just going to Super Bowl after Super Bowl. Until. You know. It trailed off. But the offense was so fun to watch. We didn't hate the Chiefs.

Like. We didn't hate. I. At least the way I remember it. Is like. We hadn't turned. We wanted to watch the Chiefs. Well. Because they didn't have the titles yet either. Well. But even when they. You turn when you win a bunch too. Even when he had a couple. I feel like. It was like. Oh no. I still like the Chiefs. Because they're very fun to watch. This is a great product. And then it just became so boring. The last couple years. Still succeeding. That's when. They're missing. That's when we turn. I mean. I hope Ken Walker can be a part of this.

Oh. Please. Because they're missing. Like. It was Kareem Hunt. And it was Tyreek Hill. And it was prime Kelsey. Now you have old Kelsey. You have Pacheco. And you've got Rice missing games. And you've got to throw the ball to Justin Watson. That's not fun. There's a reason why he has eight. Touchdown passes of. Of over 30 yards. Or whatever it was. In the last handful of years. At least in the league. They don't have the personnel. And then they spent the whole draft on defense. I would not be shocked. Figure it out. If they're still. You know. In his fantasy value.

Patrick Mahomes came from. Running the football. And now he's coming off an ACL injury. So yes. I'm with you. I wanted to. And his number one wide receiver. Is also coming off of a knee surgery. And currently in jail. Like. Rehabbing it in jail. In jail. It's so brutal. Yeah. I just saw he won the opportunity. To be in his own cell. To rehab the knee. After some of the days. Oh. That's so good. Congratulations. Rashi. No contract extension announced for Rashi. Surprisingly enough. No. Any minute. Just. We'll take a break. Keep refreshing your email. We'll come right back. Values.

Are you really. You're really doubling up. I really am. Well I guess. Get it out of the way Mike. Because it needs to be said. So you know how. I don't like RJ Harvey. Yes. I like JK Dobbins. Who is just. Where he is in the draft. Is. It. What it can do. To. To the build of your team. Is unbelievable. He's going in the mid 30s. Both in best ball. And on sleeper currently. He. They. You know. They. It was all this chatter. What are the Denver Broncos. Going to do at the running back position. They're going to do something.

They're. They're in on the big names. They're trying to get Bree. They. They wanted Breece Hall. They wanted. Ken Bone Walker. They wanted Rumbelaya. They wanted to make a move. They weren't able to do it. And so they end up bringing JK Dobbins back. It's a two year deal. It's worth up to 16 million. It's 8 million guaranteed. Which it's not nothing. And the fact that he. Was so successful. As the starter. Versus what RJ Harvey gave you. I mean this is. This is the same team guys. The same offensive line. JK Dobbins. Was running for over five a carry.

He. And where. Well RJ Harvey's at 3.7. Uh. Runs going for more than five yards. Like a good chunk run. 41% of Dobbins carries. 29% of RJ Harvey's. 10 yard runs. Almost 14% for JK Dobbins. Went down at five and a half percent. For RJ Harvey. It's just. He is such. A better runner. Than. Than RJ Harvey. And he's going in the. The. In the ninth round. You. Like. He affords you to be. You take your elite tight end. Take. Take a freaking quarterback. With the tight end. I don't care. Because you can get a running back too. In the ninth round.

Do you think that. Jonah Coleman. Could make this a. Three way time share. Which would. I don't. Make all three. They didn't make. Dobbins a priority. That would be one of my counter arguments. Was that. Dobbins sat out there. And they were. They were kind of. Canoodling. With some other free agents. At the running back position. Yeah. And then they settled on returning. You know. They got one in the draft. And they bring Dobbins back. They have Harvey. That's. I think that's my biggest concern. Now. I don't think. Like. If you think of. What you're saying is right. And Dobbins is showing that.

In training camp. This ADP won't stay. I. But it won't go up to a point. No. It won't. It's not affordable. He'll maybe go. So. In our mock draft. Jason took him in the seven. The seventh round. You got Kyle Monungay. Like. He's. An interesting player. But he's. He's definitely not the starter. You have. You know. Like Rico. Is. It's just weird. With him and Jalen Warren. Blake Cork. For him. And then there's J.K. Dobbins. I don't know if the team. Like last year. He was kind of a revelation. Right. Where you expected. Maybe the rookie gets an impact. He comes out.

And gets it done. And I. Don't disagree on the value. Or anything. I'm just more so talking. Philosophically about J.K. Dobbins. If I'm that team. And I. Like. Harvey's gotten his reps. And I go out. And I get J.K. Jonah Coleman. I don't see a world. Where J.K. Dobbins is getting more work. Than he got last year. By any stretch of the imagination. Because he got hurt. Doing it. Right. Like. That was part of it. Is J.K. Dobbins. Injury prone. Gets hurt with too much work. That's where my hesitation would come. But. Right now. It's like a free. A free player.

I feel like it's a free player. And it's a free starter. Who. Was. You know. Before the injury game. His consistency was a B. He was. What he was putting up. He was at 11 fantasy points. A week. On average. The team's going to win a lot of games. And they're going to be winning a lot of games. With their defense. So. Elite defense. It's. So giving the ball to a veteran. Running back makes sense. Who actually has. Success. On the ground. As opposed to R.J. Harvey. Jason. Your value pick. My value pick. I've been talking about him. Talking him up.

This whole offseason. I know. Andy. You disagree with me on this one. Which is fine. But I think Mike Evans. Is. A great value. I believe he's going to be very good this year. He is. Old. He's changing teams. He's 32.8 years old. He'll be 33. Those are some of those things you're always looking for. Yeah. I mean. No. I mean. I'm bringing those up. Because that's usually something I avoid. That was your D.J. Moore argument. Well. That was year nine. And also. In that argument. Mike Evans. That was year nine. Yeah. We're not. Mike Evans. It's way past year nine.

Yeah. But also. The one guy who stood out on that list. Yeah. Yes. Who was great when he changed teams. He was the wide receiver three. Was Devontae Adams. Because he's like a Hall of Fame level. Yes. Caliber wide receiver. That's what Mike Evans is. He's a Hall of Fame. Second ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver in the future. And this is a team that is projected to score a ton of points. Like right now. They're I think like the third highest. Fourth highest. In projected points. Who's going to score the touchdowns? Obviously Christian McCaffrey is going to get his.

We don't know about the health of George Kittle. Mike Evans is going to be a touchdown machine. When Brock Purdy throws touchdowns. They lost you on Jennings. Every report from San Francisco right now is about how amazing Mike Evans is. The connection between Purdy and Mike Evans has been all healthy. I mean he is. That's really. See that's the issue to me. I don't think. You have two arguments. You have the argument that he's lost it. He's old. And it's just like don't go in on that. That's fine. That's maybe that's true. You have the other argument of. Well he's injury prone.

And so I don't want. I mean going to San Francisco. Goodness gracious. An injury prone wide receiver. That's fine. And I do believe there is a chance that this is a pick where if he gets injured you go. Well shoot. I should have seen this coming. I feel really stupid. But when he's on the field. He's going to score a ton of fantasy points. He's not going to be. I don't think he's going to be a wide receiver three. I think he's going to be a potential wide receiver one. I think he could be a top 12 wide receiver. And he's going in a place in the draft where it's like you're not.

You are drafting an old guy changing teams who was injured last year. And you're worried about it. But the scheme that Kyle Shanahan has really leads to a lot of specifics that Mike Evans does. They play with two wide receivers on the field. Often. That sounds. Some people think that's bad for fantasy. That's great for fantasy for wide receivers. It's consolidation of targets. When Mike Evans has been in two wide receiver sets. He has dominated. That is his bread and butter. I just think what Shanahan does. What Brock Purdy does. And what Mike Evans does. Is a match made in heaven.

Is very similar to my argument last year with George Pickens and Dak. They just. What Dak does well is what George Pickens does well. It was. And they needed him. And that's the thing here is like they need Mike Evans. They need a wide receiver one. And everything about you know. Hey. Yeah. Is that Ricky P? This is Ricky Mouse. Ricky Mouse. But you're going Mice Evans. What's that? Oh I missed it. What? That's fine. I see some. It's fine. It was a mouse slash mice reference. Mice Evans for Ricky Mouse. Oh my goodness. I mean it wasn't really like.

Bust it. It was more just. I was throwing it right back to you real quick. And you couldn't pick it up. Oh yeah. There's a reason. I don't pick up turds. Listen. I don't like that joke. Thank you Ricky. I'm going to make a. I'm going to say something that you're going to love. I love. I love Mike Evans. Okay. If it was 2023. Because that's. That's when he was a my guy. And I loved Mike Evans. Look. You're not going to win any argument opposing you on the basis of what Mike Evans has done. That's not any argument against Mike Evans.

He's done everything. He's been amazing. He's been one of the greatest wide receivers we've ever seen. In fact his career has spanned our career almost perfectly. Where he's dominated the entire time that we've been doing the podcast. You have to. Like I noticed that we can't. We throw last year out because he was injured. I mean he did play like. He started the year as a wide receiver 41, 48, 27. Then he was out. Came back 8, 24, 28, and 50. We won't know if the wheels were falling off very much last year. But I tell you what. There's a chance they were.

When you're 32 years old. You're going to be 33 this season. Like. I don't like the basis of saying something's just going to go wrong. And that's my entire argument. But it's. It is. It is my argument. I mean it didn't work with CMC. But it did. It worked with Purdy. And it worked with Pearsall. And it worked with. You know. The other parts of this offense. And it has worked. When you look at San Francisco. Not quite figuring it out. With some of these pieces. Like. If Mike Evans has the fountain of youth. And at 33 years old. Is.

Is producing at. You know. 28 year old Mike Evans levels. You're going to be right. His situation is really good. But it's not like we don't like. Baker Mayfield. Like he produced. Wide receiver. Five numbers with Baker Mayfield. In 2023. I don't think it's an upgrade. On his situation. That much to what he was doing then. Well. No. But I. I mean. The targets. 57 percent. His targets aren't going to change that much. So this is. I mean. I'm just saying the need for him. Is like. So if he goes down. You say. It's not going to work out. It's going to go wrong.

He's going to go down. I'm saying. Where do they throw the. It's. I mean. Then. Then you should be drafting. I didn't say he was going to go down. Are you drafting Ricky Pearsall. Like a lot. No. Are you high on him? No. Come on. What I said was not that he's going down. I said something's going to go wrong. Well sure. But we know what that would be. Well. No. Because it can be party getting hurt. It could be. Do you think that the 49ers. Them not building him into the offense. To the way that you like it. Do you believe the 49ers offense.

Will be a good offense. Score. When they're all healthy. No. But like on the course of the year. Healthy. Not healthy. I mean. The 49ers are never healthy. Do you think that this is an offense. That will be a top 10 scoring offense. Probably in that range. So it's got to be someone. So I guess if you are out. If you're listening. And you're like. I'm not doing a 33 year old. Hamstring. You know. Tight hamstring guy. I'm just not doing that. Then. Then I would say draft Ricky P. Because someone here is going to. Except for that argument. Didn't work last year.

Because that. That argument was completely applicable to Ricky P. He wasn't the beneficiary of it. It became Juwan Jennings. Yeah. In a CMC year. And Kittle was on fire. So like. Other things do happen. Like other players come in and produce. That's all I'm saying. I have my fears. That's it. 33 year old. Changing team guys. The arguments you made for. Look. This is Hall of Famer. So maybe he can do what Julio couldn't do. And he can go to San Francisco and dominate. I do think it's a. It's in the range of outcomes. But I also think like. Like you have him ranked in a place where.

You know. He's going to start every week for you. Yes. And you're going to be counting on it. Would you take Mike Evans or Abuka? I would take Abuka. I was just curious. I didn't know. Nothing. No agenda there. Just curious where you were at. My. I guess I have to share mine. Yes you do. His name is Kenneth Gainwell. Oh. And not Sleeper. Because he. He woke last year. Right. But. A value pick on today's show. I have him ranked higher than you guys do. I have him at 32. We put him back in the ADP deep freeze though.

Oh. Yeah. And he. That's where guys like this live. That's where they're always going to live. Do you remember how many years Darren Sproles lived in that place? Oh. Man. Darren Sproles. That was good times. Cheat code. You could never find a clear path for the dude. Like. Mentally. You could. Well. They have these other two starting running backs. So Darren Sproles. Okay. He figured it out. Like Kenneth Gainwell last year. Was. Unbelievable for Pittsburgh. I look at the depth chart here in Tampa Bay. Bucky Irving is a huge wild card. Obviously. And I don't know if he was brought up on the wild card show.