Fantasy Football - Early Busts + Early Values - Podcast for 6/11

The fantasy finish, so to speak, looks great. And maybe you need to beware and look at the low-end outcomes. Or maybe relative to ADP, we don't like them. That type of thing. Yeah. A lot of times in the UDK, we'll have a bus section. And they're not always guys we don't believe in. Sometimes it's just like this guy's being overdrafted. You're not going to be having. Best example of that was last year's Ashen Gentry, who was on our bus list. And he finished as the running back 12. But everyone who played knew that was a bus pick. You took him halfway through the first round,

and he really got off to a hard time. Now, my bus pick on today's episode. Hold on, Jay. We got it. There's an update here from Kyle. Is this Dumpy Dumpy? How certain are you of this? It doesn't matter. I'm going forward with it. Okay. We have the... He gave us a screenshot of the Dumpy family history. There is a Dumpy family history. With the name Seymour. Seymour. So there was, in fact, a... Seymour Dumpy. Come on. Oh, no. There was also a heart for Dumpy. Seymour Dumpy. That's from Ancestry.com? It says we've only scratched the surface of the Dumpy family history.

You wouldn't even believe how many Dumpties. Oh, my gosh. That's pronounced with a Dumpy. So I'm going to be Mrs. Dumpy, is it? Huh. Maybe I'll keep my name. Yeah, it's a real Julia Guglia. Humpty Dumpty. This is ridiculous. All right. We have bust picks. Jason, were you volunteering to go first? Yeah, I'll go first because I alluded to this earlier. Less is more? Yeah. And honestly, this is not one of those where I think he's being just slightly overdrafted. Like, I won't be drafting this player. Like, I do think this will just be a bust and a wasted pick.

And where he's going right now, he's going ahead of players that I think are great picks. That is wide receiver, brand new shiny toy for Josh Allen, DJ Moore. DJ Moore has been a great NFL wide receiver. He's been great for fantasy a handful of times. Usually we kept saying, oh, if he could only have a quarterback, he'd be great. Unfortunately, he didn't have a quarterback. And so he was always like a wide receiver, too. Very, very solid. I mean, you look back at his wide receiver 18, wide receiver 22, 19, 22, wide receiver 6. That was his big year in Chicago.

And then wide receiver 17 last year. Fell down to wide receiver 33. And the thing is, is I think he has lost a lot of what made him special. I just talked about when I watched the Caleb Williams tape, it made me more confident in this bus pick. Because I would watch Luther Burden look awesome. Rome look awesome. Mr. Love, man. Always looks awesome. He looked great. Oh, and he's hungry. And then every target to DJ Moore was like, oh, man. Who is that? Oh, that's number two. Ugh. It just didn't look good. And some of the stats really, really bear that out.

You know, I know that Joe said, why can't I think? Joe Brady? Yes, thank you. Joe Brady talked about how. Oh, Joe. Dumped it. He felt like he didn't see any drop off in the film when he was looking to acquire. Yeah. Last year's film. He hasn't seen any drop off. Yeah. They were together five years ago. So Joe Brady back in the day with in Carolina is used to a certain DJ Moore that I don't think he is anymore. Career low in receptions. Career low in receiving yards. Career low in yards per out run. Career low in forced missed tackles.

This was like DJ Moore was a yak master. Get the ball in his hands and watch him break tackles. He broke four tackles last year against man. He used to dominate this year. Man targets per out run. 16 percent. That's bad. Yards per out run against man. Less than a yard. Zero point seven. Yeah, that is like that's that's dog doo doo. He's not the same guy. And then you look at like I mean, we've seen this like Amari Cooper. Good. Maybe passes prime. Goes to the bills. And you get excited because it's like Josh Allen needs his Stefan Diggs that he had of old where it's like, oh, it's going to be a top ten wide receiver for fantasy.

But that's not the way this team runs anymore. You look at in 2024. Josh Allen became the first top five fantasy quarterback to not have a top 36 wide receiver. And then in 2025, he did it again. It's like that's just who they are. He spreads the ball around. They're not going to target an alpha one. And DJ Moore is not an alpha one. Right now, he is being drafted ahead of Mike Evans. We'll talk about him in a minute. Carnell Tate. Top ten first round wide receiver rookie. I would love that. Christian Watson. We're big fans of him. Roma Dunze.

You know, I'm in on that. Jordan Tyson. Like I want all of those guys more than DJ Moore. DJ Moore is being drafted right on that like wide receiver two three bubble. And I mean, first of all, even when DJ Moore's had big games or big seasons, it's come in consistently. He's not a high volume every game target earner. So I just think at 29 years old, year nine changing teams is not going to work. The name is carrying a lot of weight with it that the performance probably won't. And I love that. I love that. I hope his ADP doesn't drop.

I love seeing him where he is because I know someone's going to make that mistake. And it won't be me. And I, you know, I'll eat the words if he has a resurgence in, you know, year nine changing teams. But your namesake, too. Here's the other. It's a little bit sad. Sad. Here's the other year nine wide receivers changing teams. Randall Cobb sucked. Marvin Jones sucked. Alan Robbins had sucked. Odell Beckham sucked. Nelson Aguilar sucked. Tyler Boyd sucked. And Cooper Cup sucked. And then there was one good example who was a potential Hall of Famer in Devontae Adams when he went to the Raiders to play with his best friend at quarterback.

Do we get ourselves in lots of trouble in fantasy? This is a things to remember thing of the projecting the next blank. Yes. Yeah. I mean, it feels like that works out almost never. I mean, the next Tyreek Hill in Kansas City, we went through 15 different players. Well, it happens with coaches, too. Like, a coach comes over and so it's like, oh, who's going to be in that role? It's like, well, that was, that's not, that's not how it works. Remember how I believe it was just talked about with the Cardinals? Michael Wilson is in the Puka role. Right.

Well, that's Puka's role. You've got to be Puka. Jason, it remains to be, the Los Angeles Rams have to deal with the Arizona Cardinals. Remember the next Wes Welker for 40 years? Mm-hmm. Oh, man. Is he on the Patriots? Oh. Is he white? Oh, man. Hey, we got Edelman. I was going to say, that one actually did happen. Yeah, we got to work down a little bit. That took a while, though. Danny Madola was in there. How long after was Edelman? Yeah, the next Gronk? Oh, man. Absolutely. We did that. I remember some, oh, my gosh. Yeah, no, there's. What was the long-haired?

I didn't want to reference him because I couldn't think of the name. Kyle save us. Kobe Fleener? No. No, he was a Patriot. This was a Patriot preseason hero that flashed for five seconds. Yeah, we just talked about this guy. Yeah, we'll find it. Mike, I'm going to let you go next since you're going to mix a running back into the best picks. Yes, I'm going to go with a player who, it will not surprise people to hear this name, a player who is being drafted as the starter, as the RB1 from their team, and I don't think that he is.

I think that he is the auxiliary, maybe the third down guy. It is R.J. Harvey of the Denver Broncos, who the best ball drafters have a better idea as he's going as RB31, and he's RB21 right now in sleeper. I'll start with the good. He's one of nine rookie running backs since 2010 to score 12 or more touchdowns. That sounds great. The problem is he did it on 193 total touches, and I mean, as a problem, that's a level of efficiency that just cannot be replicated. There was excitement for R.J. Harvey. It was a surprise second-round pick. Running backs being drafted in the second round, that's generally a good strategy for

us to go after. And yet the teams' beat reporters were like, nope, it's going to be J.K. Dobbins. I'm trying to tell you, it's going to be J.K. Dobbins as the starter. And then week one hits, and there it is. J.K. Dobbins is the guy. Before Dobbins was hurt, I mean, Harvey was just not seeing opportunities. He was at eight and a half. And then weeks 13 through 17, he got to be the guy. The opportunities went up. The scoring went up. And yet, he was unbelievably inefficient as a runner. We had 55 qualified running backs with 80 or more rush attempts.

He was 51st in runs stuffed at the line, in percentage of runs stuffed at the line. 52nd in runs of 10 or more yards. The explosive, the super-fast electric, R.J. Harvey, couldn't rip off runs of 10 or more yards. 49th in success rate. 48th in yards after contact per attempt. I just, I don't, if I don't see a world where R.J. Harvey returns anything close to his ADP unless the running back room for Denver gets completely depleted again. You want to bet on a Dobbins injury? Yeah. I get it. He actually, I get it. Like, R.J., or Dobbins, he gets hurt all the time.

But when he is on the field, Dobbins is awesome. Like, he just, he plain delivers for every single team that he has ever played for. He just does get hurt a lot. But Harvey right now is being drafted like he's going to, like the takeover has happened. And I just, I don't understand it. He's going around players who have a much better odds of actually making an impact on your team. And drafting Harvey where he's going in your home leagues, I just, I think it is a complete waste of a pick. And you're going to be sitting around waiting and waiting and waiting for when you can finally

plug him into a starting lineup. Well, when you pick him, you need to play him at his ADP. And you can't. So that's a huge problem. You cannot. If you suddenly lose that confidence, which, look, there are all, you know, Jonah Coleman, who we like, who we believe is a good runner, should have some opportunities. And a great pass catcher. And Peyton's history is to give other guys that we don't even know much about opportunities. Tyler Bidde. Yeah, I was going to say, your name can be Bidde and you can get the ball. Yeah. Now, I mean, I like pushing back when I disagree.

I agree with both of your picks, like wholeheartedly. My pick will not be agreed upon by Mike. No. At all. But I think this is a player that is an absolute fantasy football mirage for your team. And I say that with all due respect. But I don't hear any respect. But my. He said with all due respect. I said all due. That doesn't mean you get to say whatever you want afterwards. It's Zay Flowers. And the people are booing, I guess. The people hate it. Now, here's the truth about Zay Flowers that I think is very difficult to, for some, to swallow,

to deal with. But I think it's obvious by his ADP that people know that what happened last year by fantasy finish number is not, it's not, it's not like indicative of what he actually represented for your team. Because last year he had a wide receiver seven finish. Now, that was 12.1 fantasy points per game. But his ADP this year is 21 on sleeper, 15 on underdog. There's, there's nothing wrong with Zay Flowers, the player. But I think in fantasy, you know, we've seen four years, three years of Zay Flowers. And last year to finish at seven, when I look at the game log, I'm mesmerized by the fact

that that math works out. I really am. He had career highs. I'm going to give him, here's his flowers for flowers. Uh, 118 targets, 86 receptions, 1200 yards. That's great. Those are all awesome numbers. Um, week one monster performance. How many, how many fantasy points do you have? 27, something like that. 24.6 and a half PPR. Number one overall wide receiver in the first week of the season. From the, for the next 12 weeks. So 71% of the fantasy season. So like almost, you know, a huge majority. He averaged eight fancy points per game as a wide receiver. 41. His next highest finish in the next 12 weeks was 21 overall.

He wasn't a top 24 receiver for the other 11 weeks. So the math ends up somehow he's wide receiver seven because he ends, he bookended the years with number one overall finishes. So week 18, when it didn't matter for fantasy, number one, week one, huge impression for your team. I'm going to, I got a guy. Number one. And then he had a great fantasy playoffs. I'll give him that eight, 18 and 11. But when you, when you put the context together, it's just a, it's a really tough situation for me to buy into the draft price for Zay Flowers. I can't see a world where I'm taking them over Devante Smith, Emeka Ibuka, Terry McLaurin,

Cam Scadaboo, Bashaw Tootin, who you love, Jamison Williams. Like maybe you can have that debate if you want. I think that's fair. Yeah. That one is a little safer dude, or I want a little more explosive or more volatility. Higher upside is on the Jamison Williams. The, the more regular safe approach player would be Zay Flowers. I, I have Zay Flowers ranked around where his ADP is. So I'm not 21. Yeah. And I'm not, um, I'm not OU T on Zay Flowers, but I am closer on Andy's side than the people's. Um, because his, I mean, we've seen, we know who he is and he's a, he is not, he's, we're

not saying he's a bad wide receiver. He's just for fantasy. He doesn't have that. Like he's going to score five touchdowns, you know? And that's kind of how, when they get around the goal line, he's not a goal line threat. He's just not. And, and he shouldn't be, they've got Mark Andrews, they've got Derrick Henry, they've got Lamar Jackson. That's not, you know, they're, they should be putting their best foot forward. And it's not Zay Flowers there. So then you just have a low, I know he finished wide receiver seven, but like you're saying Andy, it just, the process didn't help.

I have really good numbers for this. Cause if you look at every top 10 wide receiver since 2019 and you look at their fantasy finish and their consistency rank, and you compare them because we give you those consistency scores. So he finished at seven. His consistency was 16. That's a Delta of nine. So he was minus nine. He's a B. He, that was minus nine. We looked at all the players that had a similar Delta, right? Anything that where their consistency was not with their fancy finish. 69% of those finished outside the top 15 the next year, 50% were wide receiver 24 or worse.

It's not a good sign if your consistency rank and your fantasy finish are that far apart. I just feel like Baltimore as a team, and maybe that maybe with the new head coach and a new offensive ideology, this, at least the potential for change is there, but they spent what? Surratt and Jacoby Lane. So they drafted two wide receivers. And every single time I've ever watched Baltimore, I've never said to myself, they need Zay Flowers to win this game. They may use them in this game to win and that game to win. I don't go into the game saying, like, I'd say that about Derrick Henry.

I'd say that about Lamar Jackson running the football. I might even say that about Mark Andrews for about four or five years. But I've never been in those games where I'm like, man, Zay Flowers has taken this one over. And that's where the disrespect that Mike hears comes in. Yes. Where I think he's a really good player, but I think the fantasy community already knows this, or he wouldn't be a fifth-round pick. You don't drop the wide receiver seven in the fifth round unless you already don't believe that finish. Which you've never defended that finish. No, no, no. You've never come out and been like, this is the seventh best wide receiver in fantasy.

No. But to me, relative to the draft spot, I've got him. So he's being drafted on underdog at 15. Mike's got him at 16. Jason at 17. I'm at 24. So it is a bust for me. It was one of those players that stood out where my fantasy finish was quite a bit further than you guys. He's 21, fifth-round pick and unsleeper. So I'm not too far off of that. But when I have to draft him, I feel like I'm going to have to say, this is an every week wide receiver two, and I don't think I can get there.

He was, you know, he's hitting 10 points or more a lot of the time. Like I said, be in consistency. So maybe you guys don't see the ceiling case for Zay Flowers with Declan Doyle coming in. And this, I think that's a huge deal, actually. If you told me, okay. We loved Monken. But what I'm saying is, if it were the same old, same old for the Baltimore Ravens, I would be looking at Zay Flowers and this ADP and being like, meh. Like, I don't see, I don't see how it changes. And I agree the identity of the team will still be Lamar and Henry.

This is going to, like, the AFC North, this is going to be a team that has to run. Yeah. No, we have news. You want me to hit it? No, no, no. Just hold on. Hold on. Oh, you got more stuff to say? Yeah, and so I'm saying, with the new head coach coming in and how good I think Zay Flowers actually is as a wide receiver, I do see a world where he spikes. He gets up to eight touchdowns. Maybe even nine. He had one red zone touchdown last year. Yeah. This is what I'm saying. It is. He's not built for it.