Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early Top 12 QB + Draft Predictions

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to the fantasy footballers podcast coming to you from the fantasy jocks.com studios with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, we're back. Hey! Welcome in to the show. You know what I would love to see? What would you love to see, Mike? The WWE equivalent of our theme song, but as an intro.

for a just like a high profile wrestler like there's pyro going on can you sponsor a wrestler and have them make them use your theme song that is an excellent question that i do not have the answer to um we'd have to come up with that wrestler the one that fits our personality he's the foot the alex smith no not your personality our that's taking on a life of its own hasn't it

Oh, man. I can't even post anything normal without getting 8 to 10 Alex Smith responses. I hope it goes through the entire year. It's very funny. I got my lucky charms in the system, so I'm ready to go today. We're talking quarterbacks. So you'll be done halfway through the show from the sugar drop. Yes. Yeah. I mean, I try to space them out. I don't know how you guys eat your lucky charms. I know some people save the charms. By not eating them. No, that's not. Don't be stupid. Come on. Come on.

Says the guy who, you've always got these weekends filled with food. Yeah, not lucky charms. Not lucky charms. I could eat that as a snack every night. I could do it, like five or six bowls. Year of health. Year of health. Welcome to the podcast, early quarterback rankings on today's show, going through the top 12. Quarterbacks on our initial list, some deep dives into the research pool by everybody here. So we've got some interesting things to bring out about these guys.

I will say this right out of the gate. I'm still mesmerized by the lack of Drew Bree's love that exists in the fantasy community for how good that guy has been for so long. I don't know why everybody doesn't set out every year to pick up Drew Breeze. I think it's just those nasty splits, the road, the road home splits. Yeah, we'll be talking about that. Quick question of the day, guys. This one comes in from Twitter at Brypot. He says,

Pre-draft predictions for the most fantasy-relevant rookies in 2017. We have a rookie show coming up next Tuesday with Matt Harmon. He'll be on the show talking the wide receivers, and we're going to talk through the quarterbacks in every position. Everybody wants to know who do I target, right? And it's really hard without that team to attach the rookie to. That being said, give me a pre-draft prediction for your most fantasy-relevant rookie.

I would say that, you know, before the draft, I would put my chips on Leonard Fournet. The reason why is because predominantly the running back position for rookie year fantasy production is the position you want. Quarterbacks don't usually, I mean, DAC did it last year, but usually quarterbacks don't matter. Tight-ins certainly don't matter. Even in a great tight-end class. Wide receivers, you have Odell, but, you know, most of the time, it's the running backs that...

succeed year one. And for me, it's about draft capital. I expect Leonard Fournett to be the first running back off the board come the actual draft day. And if he does go in the top 10 picks, that means that team is saying you are a centerpiece of our office. You saw that with Zeke last year. You had to use him. You spent the fourth pick on it. It's the Todd Gurley workload as well. So even if he's, to me, unfortunately drafted to the Jaguars, I just.

I'm not calling Fournettes the savior to the Jaguar's running game, but with the volume, he should be able to just, through force of will, be fantasy relevant. For the sake of choosing somebody else, I mean, I'll just say Dalvin Cook because I think he does land in, like, maybe Philadelphia or a really, really good situation. So he's the guy that can be out there on third down. He could make impact plays on third down.

You know, if you're in a half for full point, I'll just go with Delvin Cook. I don't love the guy, but I think his situation where he lands, you might walk into Philadelphia an offense that could be really good with the second year quarterback. So I'll throw his name out there, although I agree Fournette's the likely candidate. And then I'll just trifect to this with another running back with Christian McCaffrey, who I don't think we'll go as early as.

As for net. Could be Denver, though? Which means he could drop to a team like Denver, like the Colts. New Orleans? Oh, if McCaffrey goes to the Colts, he would be my pick. Oh, it's wheels up, man. Yeah. Or if Deontiff Foreman goes to the New England Patriots and becomes Lagart Blunt, he might be my opinion. Yeah. Yeah. So some, look, the draft is not far away. So we are very excited about. We'll be talking about all week. Yeah. And when the draft happens, then we get to come in here.

And we get to discuss these fits and where guys are. And, you know, we'll talk through the wide receivers, too. Where does Corey Davis go? Where do these big names go? If you want to follow the show, we're on Twitter at the FF Ballers. If you're listening on iTunes, we encourage you click that subscribe button so we can drop right into your pocket every single day. Going to be a very fun year. And the fantasy community is join thefoot.com. Guys, we don't have a lot of news to talk about. We don't have any news to talk about.

So let's talk quarterbacks. Quarterbacks. We got a flag football game tonight. Ooh. Wait, who's our quarterback? And I'm a quarterback. And I'm a quarterback. All right. So you clearly have the most insight at the position. So this is your opportunity to kind of beg for targets from me. I'm going to be protecting you as the best offensive linemen. So don't worry about it. Everyone's eligible. All right. Number one.

If he was available in our flag league, we'd probably go with him. Maybe. Aaron Rogers comes in at number one. Again, these are our consensus top 12 rankings. So if you want to see them in full, you can go to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. We've all gone through and done our initial stating. So if you don't know how we do these, we go through and we project stat lines for these players. We don't just go in and say, hey, we think Rogers is number one. Luck.

is number two hint hint. But we go in and we put in how we're projecting them to finish. Last year, Aaron Rogers finished as the number one quarterback, 16 game season. He's been a top, what is that, top 10 quarterback for eight of the last nine years, top three in the majority of those years. I don't know what there is to say about Aaron Rogers other than the fact that you're not going to get.

you know, the interceptions, the backbreaking interceptions that can kill you as a fantasy owner. And you will get the touchdowns, which, you know, fantasy football lives and dies on the touchdown, which is so hard to predict. But it's not that hard to predict with Aaron Rogers. Mike, you have an incredible stat on that. Yeah, so since 2011, when Aaron Rogers and Jordy Nelson play 12 or more games together. Which is five complete seasons where that's happened. Four. There's four. Uh, in since 2011, but.

He averages 40 touchdowns in over 4,400 yards. Average is 40 touchdown. If Jordy's there and Rogers is there, I mean, you're going to get insane fantasy production to the point of he should be the QB1. And he was, he was our QB1 last year. He'll likely be my QB1 next year. I mean, he just, he is so dominant, but his draft price is always to a place where.

I don't want to pay for him. Yeah, I will have Aaron Rogers on exactly zero of my teams that is not a dynasty roster because you just don't need to spend as high capital on whoever the first quarterback is going off the board. And there's also, look, he might have his best wide receiving or even just past catching core that he has ever had.

In his entire career, it's possible with Devante Adams now coming into his own. If Randall Cobb is healthy with Jordy, you add Martell Spinnett. That's great. But there are also reasons like, look, he's going to be great. Is he going to be top five? Absolutely. But in the last 12 years, there has not been a repeated number one quarterback in fantasy football. I mean, it just does not.

Not Aaron Rogers, not Tom Brady, not Peyton Manning, not Drew Breeze. Yeah, Rogers went one-two-two. Exactly. Well, he's got to check the microphones. Yeah, he'll be, you know, that number two. He also had 610 attempts this last year, which the five, you know, previous years, his 16-game pace was 541. Right. So, you know, look, he's going to be great. Third round. If he's there, third round.

I wouldn't. I would rather grab. I mean, he'll be, I don't think you're making a mistake if you take Aaron Rogers in the third round. I don't think you're going to destroy your team, but I would prefer to stack my running backs and wide receivers. And I think there's great value in quarterbacks late. Okay. All right. The interesting thing about Rogers is he does not pile on the yardage, generally. Not usually, yeah. You know, you look at him and you contrast him with the guy like Drew Breeze. Drew Breeze normally lands 800.

you know, 7, 800 yards ahead of him on the year, but Rogers can stack those touchdowns so fast. And they're a team that looks in the red zone to throw the ball. They're not afraid of putting it in Rogers' hands because he's not going to throw the ball away. 62 attempts in the 10 zone. So, I mean, it was when they got inside the 10, they threw the ball, and he threw a touchdown on 46.7% of those attempts. Wow. That's ridiculous. And that's the second highest percentage.

for touchdowns inside the 10 for guys who had more than 20 attempts despite having by far the most attempts in the 10 so i mean he's high volume high percentage he's just he's the man andrew luck comes in at number two somehow entering his sixth season already when he's been healthy he's a top 10 quarterback in fact since 2013 when he's been healthy he's a top six quarterback

every year where he's played 15 or 16 games. He got paid the year after his injury-riddled season where he only had seven games played, got paid, came in last year, had a terrible offensive line situation. That was the story for Andrew Luck. I think that causes a lot of fantasy owners to say, look, he may be the best combination of opportunity to still improve.

along with draft spot where he's going at the back of the fourth round, going behind a high-profile guy like Tom Brady. What is the story with Andrew Luck? Where do you see him finishing this year? We have him at number two as their consensus quarterback rankings. Yeah, I think two to four is a really safe range for Andrew Luck. And you know that number one is within the realm of possibilities. He has done it. What was interesting when I was looking back on Andrew Luck.

In 2014, so the monster outlier season for Andrew. Where he was number one. Correct. Indianapolis tied for fourth, only allowing 1.6 sacks a game. So they actually protected him in 2014. And meanwhile, in 2016, 2.8 sacks per game, which, and then he still got it done. I mean, he was the QB4 on the year. He was actually on a very similar pace.