Starts of the Week + Week 3 Breakdown, Playing the Odds - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/22

It's week three and we have an absolutely jam-packed show. We're talking, we're never not working, we're got starts as a week, we've got boom-boom kicker that is probably the best thing you've ever heard in your life, all sorts of things, including a waterbed on today's episode. So make sure you like this video, subscribe. Click the bell so you get notified when we're going live or doing special events Sunday mornings. You're going to want to check that out because weather's going to become more of a factor. Thank you for being a part of what we're doing here. We really appreciate you watching. Enjoy the show. The Fantasy Footballer Studio is brought to you by Samsung Galaxy. Visit Samsung.com to learn more. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers podcast back with you.

Jason Moore is here. I am. I am happy to be here, Andy. Back with the snapback. Yeah, it was a long, rough morning this morning. So this is a cover. The morning was in the morning. It was a long one, though. Gotcha. And, uh, rough one. And so the, the hat covers the hair. Which wasn't an option before for bad mornings. No, it was. Also, Jay Gris is in the house. And he has not got to witness. Young, Cool, Hip, Jason. No. Now it's like, you know, I'm trying it on around a bear. Yeah, well, I mean, no Mike today. So Jay Gris stepping in. A massive show. Yeah, there is a, let's go. Yeah, we've got never not working on the show. We've got a lot of news and people need injury updates on certain players this week. We have a game tonight. Matchups to get through starts of the week. Boom, boom. This is a show.

You didn't expand the boom boom to more stanzas because we do not have time for that. No, I, well, originally it was a book this week. Right. And then I cut it down to a song. But then with everything that worked in, I was like, okay, I'm just going to keep it as it's been. Smart. Yeah. Smart. Um, bookclang giveaway.com giving away a Jalen Waddle, Jalen Hertz and DJ Moore autographed jersey as well as a video tour of the studio, a personal tour. We'll hop on Zoom with you. Um, you know, introduce you to Jay Gris, things like that. And the community's over at Jointhefoot.com. Lots of folks over there. Lots of tools that are starting to take form with data from the 2022 season, the streamfinder, the snapshot tools. You want to evaluate yourself of those. You can find them on the website, the fantasy footballers.com. Let's get into it. Never not working.

Presented by Head and Shoulders, Scamp Shield Technology, available at Walmart. Never not working today on the show, digging into some numbers, trying to find some insights that benefit the Foot Clan as we head into week three of the fantasy season. Last week, we looked at quarterbacks, we looked at garbage time, and that kind of age-old narrative that it's desirable, right? For the quarterback position. The TLDR of what happened last week was that quarterbacks who lost in close games more than doubled the QB1 hit rate of garbage time losers. Okay. So even though there are those cases where the massive blowout benefits the garbage time quarterback don't bank on that narrative. Yeah, I think while we were.

putting all this data together behind the scenes. Kyle had a really good description because it's kind of surprising when you say, well, doesn't the team pass more when they're down? Yes, that's true. The pass rate skyrockets, but they don't have the ball that much. The other team is running the clock out. So the opportunity goes down. Yeah, the possessions per quarter and an opportunity to actually, you know, go out there and make a play. And we've all been there where you're watching those games. You're like, oh, finally they got it. Now they're just going to be passing. And then, boy, if you get a three and out right there, it's like seven minutes is off the clock before you see them with the ball again. But this week we're going to look at the running back and wide receiver. Obviously, you do not start just one running back, one wide receiver. There are multiples for each fantasy team and varying tiers of startable fantasy players for each position. So we're pulling a lot of data that comes out of a great article by...

Our writer Matt DeSorbo, he wrote a Flip the Game Script article you can check it out on the site. But he tracked every single spread of every game over the last 20 years. So I'm going to give you some data and then we're going to look at some situations for this week as we look at running backs and wide receivers. First of all, favored teams in general, when you look at those game lines, they win the game 66% of the time over the last 20 years. And what Jason said earlier is 100% true. The game script effect, it gets increasingly potent. Teams that are in the lead, they run more. And the more in the lead, the more in the lead they are, they run. And then teams trailing past the ball more. However, very interesting outcome here for the running back in the wide receiver position. If the game is projected to be close, so the spread is two and a half points in either direction, fantasy players, they score.

pretty much the same, whether the favorite or the underdog. So a close matchup, that's how it ends up. Make sense? Yeah, that makes sense. As the spread widens, the favorite becomes a heavier favorite. Here's what we see at the running back position. Favored running backs average 27 more rushing yards than underdog running backs. Favored wide receivers average 42 more receiving yards than underdog wide receivers. And that feels... like the one that is a little surprising. Just because of what we talked about, like, oh, you're going to be passing the ball more, you're going to be down. But the favored wide receivers, look, they're favored because they're better and they're going to score a lot of points and have a lot of yards. You do have to accomplish a lead somehow, right? And we see that players from all positions, they score more when they're on the side of the favorites. A long time ago when I was just starting in fantasy.

And I remember struggling in my first year. My second year philosophy was legitimately, who's going to win a ton of football games this year? And then I'm taking running backs from those teams because they're going to be in a position that is more trustworthy, more predictable. It's not that because that's what we're talking about is predictability. Can you predict the outcome? Is this going to be close? Is it going to be a big blowout? Favorite teams. They win 66% of the time. and favored teams score more fantasy points at running back and wide receiver. That's the data over the last 20 years. So basically picking players on the side of the favorites, it's more important than trying to play the game script narrative and saying, well, maybe in garbage time, Antonio Gibson will catch six passes, you know, because there'll be checkdowns. It's too unpredictable to lean on that narrative. So how does this impact your decision making in fantasy? Well,

this could be a tiebreaker for you when you're looking at a couple of options. Kyle, what was the example you brought up earlier this morning? It was Kareem Hunt tonight or the Jaguars this week as well. With James Robinson or Travis E.T.N. Right. Against the Chargers. So jaggs are heavy underdogs. What's the line in that game? Seven points was the line this morning. And then on the other side, what, four and a half for the Browns tonight? Is that where it's still at? That's where it's at. Yeah. So when you're deciding, maybe you're deciding Kareem Hunt. James Robinson, and that might be a decision maker for you. We all know the Chargers defense very good. The narrative for Jacksonville last week, why James Robinson had a monster week with tons of opportunities, they were just bamboozling the Colts. So that could be a decision-making situation. Some other favored running backs this week, Miles Sanders at Washington. That was Mike's start of the week this week, so it fits this narrative very well. Kareem Hunt.

Against Pittsburgh. We talked about it. Devin Singletary against Miami. They're always going to be favored. And he's a special case because they don't like that running thing over there in Buffalo. Not when they have a big, big lead, which just seems like the opposite. When Buffalo gets a giant lead, they have other running backs that could come in and basically mop up. James Cook last week. played the whole third and fourth quarter. Yeah, James Cook and Isaiah Pacheco are doing real good work in the fourth quarter when the other team has gone home. That being said, heavy favorites. More often than not, they're going to have opportunities early in the game. Favorite wide outs this week, Devante Smith, not my start of the week, was very close to my start of the week. Nice. Amari Cooper against Pittsburgh tonight, Jujoo. There are some underdog wide receivers with a five.

plus point spread like Terry McClore and Curtis Samuel and Jehan Dodson against Philly. I think all three of those guys are very scary this week against that Philadelphia defense. I think the normal narrative would be, hey, Philly gets up and those guys have the opportunity to. How that work for Minnesota? That's exactly what I was going to say. Yeah, it didn't work well. And then underdog wide receivers, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Morgan, Cincinnati as well. So just bear all of this information, this data in mind when you were making your decisions. It's fun to get into the numbers and kind of figure out what is predictable because that's all we're doing. I mean, we don't know what's going to happen. I think yesterday on the show, everyone kind of chuckled when you asked, you know, Kyle Pitts or was it Fryermuth the rest of the season? Right. And it was like, my answer was like, I don't know what's going to happen. But like that's the honest truth. You're just trying to find predictability, percentages. Play the odds. Every week when you're making your starts for your whole roster.

You're trying to just set up yourself with a situation for winning. Yeah, you just want more data to be right more often than you're wrong in the grand scheme of things. And this really applies well to DFS where you can pick. all out of every player. You know what I mean? When you're looking at your lineup, it's a good tightbreaker between two flex options. You know, go look at the lines and see if one is favored, one is an underdog. But when you're building an entire roster from the ground up out of all players on a weekly basis, you should be familiar with the spreads. All right. Get up to 100% dandruff protection that is never not working with head and shoulder scalp shield technology available at walmart.com. Use it every time you shampoo to see the difference.

News and Notes from Around the League, presented by USAA Insurance. Jason, are you prepared to blitz this news? Because we got a lot of it. I am prepared. Jump in if you think additional commentary is necessary, all right? Got it. In between kick flips or whatever else you're doing over there with your backwards hat. Justin Herbert participated in stretching and in drills on Wednesday in the portion of the practice that was open to the media. There was a report on NFL network that he was throwing the day before. Additional information. The Vegas line still has the charges favored by seven. Vegas doesn't do that if they are unsure who's playing quarterback. Excellent. Keenan Allen participated in individual drills. Said he has a shot to play Sunday against Jacksonville. Don't ever listen to Keenan Allen. He will personally leave you wrong.

Oh, man. Brooks literally said I don't like him saying that. Lamar Jackson, limited participant in practice due to a right elbow injury. He's fine. Gabe Davis, return to a limited practice on Wednesday. Dawson-Ox held out with a foot injury. You think we get Gabe Davis back? Eventually, yeah. I mean, this week. He was really close to playing last week, so I would imagine a week later he'll play. Alan Kamara returned to a limited practice on Wednesday? I think he'll play. Michael Pittman returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. Very confident he plays. Some cardinal injuries. Ron Dale Moore still sidelined. James Connor didn't practice with the ankle. I wouldn't have expected him to, but keep an eye on the next two practice reports. Wednesday is a tough day if they're dealing with anything. Yeah, I mean, honestly, Wednesday practice reports are almost meaningless because half of the time players are given that off as just a day of rest. But in order to give them that day off, they have to go on the injury report when there's nothing.

So if a player is actually working through an issue like James Connor, I would never expect him to play on Wednesday. Here's one we had more information on. Jacoby Myers did not practice due to a knee injury and underwent Wednesday getting tests on the knee. Test showed nothing significant, but he is dealing with something. That's unfortunate. Just picked him up. I know. Only four bucks, right? Yeah, it wasn't too bad. Jerry Judy didn't practice. K.J. Hamler did return to practice. Could be back. George Kiddo was limited in practice with his. I'm just, no, I'm just leaving it there. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, the groin injury. Yeah, that's sad. He plays on Sunday nights. You have to have a backup plan, and the backup plan will probably be your plan. Bellinger, Monday night. How about that? Okay. He scored last week. He looked really good to me. I would rather start a different tight end. Oh, not me.

You're saying you would rather wait, like if you picked up someone off the waivers like a Higbee, like an Irv Smith, you would rather wait on Bellinger when I don't think Kittle will play? Those two are fine, yes. Everett? I would certainly play those three. Here's what I'm, here's some additional information. Kyle Shanahan said he's optimistic Kittles going to play. Okay. So he represents a lot of upside for your team. And so I guess you have to make that judgment call. There's always the chance that he does play. And then he goes out for a run and he goes, I'm running. Yeah, that's true. That's true. But I do know that there has been a little bit of a frightening pass of trusting Higby. Like you can't look straight at him. You got to kind of look to the side and Higby will perform. But once you look straight at him and you count on him and maybe you make him a my guy or something, it doesn't work out. Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, not at practice Thursday morning. So that's right here right now, not at practice.

It doesn't seem good for them. They obviously lost Mike Evans as well, and they signed Cole Beasley. The transactions say, I don't think they're going to play. Beasles, that's not just a cold weather disease. You can get that in Tampa. Yeah, yeah, you can get it anywhere. Anywhere that you signed Cole Beasley. All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Into the forecast we go. Fantasy forecast. All right, the Houston Texans, oh, one and one, taking on the Chicago Bears who are one-on-one in Chicago. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Chicago minus three, the over-under is 40. Yeah, yeah, right. Who's scoring 40 points? Let me give you some numbers here. So the Chicago fans don't think that I'm picking on them if I say something disparaging about the offense.

Chicago has six total first downs through the air through two weeks. That seems like a really good percentage of their total throws, though. That's fair. Maybe they should throw more. Houston is 30th in yards per attempt. Are you thrilled to take this one in with the old peepers? I'm thrilled to see that the over under isn't in the 30s already because it makes it an easy call for me. not wanting to have this game think it's going to be the barn burner for fantasy. I've actually, I've gone back and forth on who I like in this game. Obviously Chicago's at home. That's where I've landed. But Chicago has looked bad. They won their first game, but that was in that kind of watery, crazy monsoon bowl. Whereas the Houston Texans have looked pretty good. Am I allowed to say that even though they're 0-1-1? I mean, they've looked.

competitive. That's what I mean. But against better teams. Sure. And I do, I was tempted, you know, to just take Houston here, but this is so inconsequential of a game to me that I'm just, I'm not going to go there. They could definitely win it. Last week, Damian Pierce had 89% of the running back touches. We saw Chicago get eviscerated by Aaron Jones and A.J. Dylan. They're 21st in the league right now through two weeks, giving up 23 fantasy points a game. I think Damian Pierce is a solid flex this week. Yeah, that's fine. The running backs in this game, we were just talking about you want either favored running backs or running backs in close games. This game does not appear to be either side is not going to get out to an insurmountable lead, forcing the other team to throw the ball. We know what the Chicago Bears want to do. They want to run the ball. I love David Montgomery. On the other side, it's rare that you would want a running back on both.

you know, both sides of a game, but this is one of those. Yeah, Texans have given up almost 25 points a game for the running back through two weeks. They've given up 32 to the wide receiver position, but right now predictability on the bear side, you can't really, like, would you take a shot on Mooney in a flex? No way. No way. I would take a shot on Mooney as far as like, if someone dropped them to the waivers, pick them up, put them on your bench to see if they open things up. They can't possibly go. a season throwing sub-20 times every game. That's, I mean, it's not 1882. Like, it can't happen in 2022. So they will throw the ball more. I'm fine stashing, but no. Is that the year you were born? That is the year I was born. 82? Okay. That was a great year for the world. The planet. Yeah. So, I mean, look, the bear side is really, really easy. You're not going to start Justin Fields unless it's 2QB, and then he's fine as that second quarterback, David Montgomery, and log out.

And on the other side, I think Damien Pierce is a flex play. Brandon Cooks is always in your lineup. Log out. Exactly. We don't need to talk about this anymore. All right. Moving on the Raiders who are 0 and 2 after that troubling beginning. Taking on the O and 2 Tennessee Titans in Tennessee. Couldn't believe looking at this game, realizing that either the Titans or the Raiders, they will be 0 and 3. Like one of those teams, both. Good teams. Last year's AFC's number one seed. This year's upgraded Raiders with Devante Adams and Chandler Jones. Granted, he wasn't playing. One of them is going to be 0 and 3. That's insane. And both games were close for the Raiders. Both games were not close for the Titans. I'm also kind of shocked here. I mean, this is the sentiment right now in Vegas. The Draft King Sportsbook line here is Las Vegas minus 2 on the road.

The overrunner is 45 and a half. There is not confidence right now that Tennessee can get the offensive side of the football fixed. And the defensive side, it's a broken as well. 25th against quarterbacks. It's a broken. Yeah, I mean, 32nd against running backs, 29th against wide receivers. It's, I've spent two weeks saying I trust Mike Rable to fix it. I don't even think we had an 0 and 2 team make the playoffs last year. No, they just have a 3% chance of making it over the last 40 years. 3%. And then at 0 and 3, yeah, 0 and 3, you're basically done. Pack it in. One of these teams season is done. These teams are playing for their season, which makes it interesting because Tennessee playing for their season at home is hard to not pick. But the more talented team is the Raiders. So it'll be a very interesting game. You know these teams are going to give it. Not that teams, you know, don't give it everything they got every game. But when you're back is against the wall, you're going to

You play this game like a playoff game. The Raiders blew it last week against Arizona, giving that game away at the end. It's wild. Derek Carr this week. What are we doing, Jason? We're not sitting in the car. We're not sitting in the car. I realize that the defense of the Titans is struggling. Struggling. I mean, it's all relative, right? I would play Derek Carr over Brady. That was the name I was going to say. Brady is kind of a forced sit situation right now. He just doesn't have any weapons to throw the ball to. Derrick Carr isn't a bad start, but I'm not viewing him. You know, when he was drafted as a starter in normal 12-team leagues, and I think he's been rather disappointing to start the season.

It was a nice first half, a really bad second half. Devante Adams did not get targeted enough last week, but he's always in your lineup. Josh Jacobs, 20 opportunities last week. Tennessee was number two against the run in 2021. You know, it's hard. You've got to play Josh Jacobs right now. Yeah, absolutely. Josh Jacobs' opportunities are phenomenal. People were afraid of Zemir White. and Amir Abdullah. And like in the preseason, it was like, oh, this is going to be this massive time share. It's all like Miles Sanders situation. Yep. I mean, Brooks, shout out to Brooks. He said he's in on Josh Jacobs before the season. He was the only one. And honestly, even though Josh Jacobs has not performed great for fantasy, like I made a trade offer last night that included getting Josh Jacobs back because I think he's undervalued right now, based on how he's being used and the offense and the future games and the overunders, like I think Josh Jacobs is going to have a,

solid, not spectacular rest of season for fantasy. Darren Waller, obviously you're starting him. He's number three at the tight-in position through two weeks. Playing Arizona will do that. But yes, he's obviously in your lineup. Derek Henry. Come on, baby. The question for everybody is, is there going to be a rising of the Yeti? He's only picked up two first downs so far on the year. Just got paid. I consider a touchdown of first down, so I'm going to say three. Okay. Um, Kyle, can you check the weather in Vermont for me? Is it snowing yet? We'll do a weather check. Okay, thank you. Because when there's snow in Vermont, Derek Henry is. I was trying to figure that. So Vermont is really key here. Yeah. Is that where yeties live or what? Uh, that they are known. They are known to, uh,

Have a few? To be in Vermont, yes. Really? But there's a lot of correlation historically between snow and Vermont and monster Derek Henry games. I'm just trying to scrape and claw for any hope that Derek Henry has a monster game because the Titans need them and I need them. No snow. Uh-oh. That's bad news. Look, I am, I'm sitting here in our League of Record just waiting for you to send Derek Henry my way. I'm very comfortable. trading with you. So if you want to make a deal, just call me. I've got Trailing Berks from this game, if you're interested in Trailing Berks for Derek Henry. No, they... Burks has a 36% target per route run through two weeks. This offense has not gotten into a flow. But I think if it does, at some point, Berks is going to be super key to that. They just don't have other weapons. It has to be... This offense has to start running through Trelon Burks. He is the clear best...

As far as just talented athlete goes who can make plays happen by himself, that's what this offense needs playmakers and they are devoid of it right now. Robert Woods, not looking great. Kyle Phillips, great for what he is, you know, kind of a rookie slot-wide receiver type. But Traylon Burks needs to get the ball more. He's been good when he's touched it, but Vrable does not seem like he believes that Berks is ready yet. Well, he had, yeah, 37% snaps, 45% snaps, five targets, six targets. So like you said, if he's out there more, he'll get the ball more. They have got to get into a flow on offense. Can you start him? Can you try to call the shot that this is the game where he goes up to the 60, 70% snap usage? I think he is a dart throw this week for sure. Okay. Yeah, I mean, I'm starting him over like the random allotment of Kansas City wide receiver guessing game situation. That's fair. That's fair. Austin Hooper has two.

Two weeks and two catches. So we're, uh... Yeah, he shouldn't even be on someone's roster after week one. All right, quick break back with some more matchups. Speaking of Kansas City, they're two and oh, and they're taking on the Colts in Indianapolis. Colts are 0-1-1. In my head, they're 0-2. Well, yeah, because they didn't, they haven't won any games. Right. So that makes sense. The Draft King Sportsbook line here, Kansas City minus five and a half on the road. The overrunner is 50 and a half. Would you have expected Kansas City to be more heavily favored on the road here? No, I mean, a road five and a half is a lot of respect. The fact that they were without Michael Pittman last week, the Colts and that really seemed to hamper the offense. I think kind of overinflates the, like right now the natural view is that the Colts have been so.

awful, so bad that this is going to be a massacre, a bloodbath, a blowout. And I don't think that's true. Frank Reich is a good coach. They've got good lines. They need to get a couple pieces back healthy on defense, and I don't know if they'll have it this week. But I don't expect this to be a completely one-sided, dominated game. Usually, like the last several years in Frank Reich's tenure, they've... They haven't gotten off to the strongest starts of the season. Patrick Mahomes in his career, 6 and 0 in games within a dome, controlled environment. He's averaged 339 and 2.5 passing touchdowns. The problem right now with the Chiefs for fantasy players, you don't know where those touchdowns are going outside of always starting Travis Kelsey. But beyond that, it's, you know, juju was a disaster last week. NBS, ew, that's my official stance.

I mean, this is one of the easiest games. There's a lot of question marks, but they're all very easy to answer. You don't start any of the Chiefs wide receivers unless you're trying to take a shot at a GPP or something, because obviously somebody's going to catch one. Somebody's going to catch touchdowns, but you cannot possibly predict it, and their floors are basically zero. You don't start anyone other than Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor on the other side. So it's... And then talk about Clyde, though. Yeah. Clyde is the RB6, RB10 through the first two weeks. He's been great. I think he is a sell high candidate right now. If he's on your team because he was the running back six, the running back 10, he's gotten touchdowns. So, and last week he had the big like 50-something yard run that really helped pad his, a 52-yard run that helped pad his numbers. They've been...