Starts of the Week + Week 3 Breakdown, Playing the Odds - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/22

Winning games, Clyde is the clear guy that is first up, but I don't expect him to usually be a top 10 finish at the position. So you're moving him for maybe somebody, like how would you view him in a trade for Jacobs? Because you could get Jacobs plus. I would need to get more than Jacobs. I trust the Chief's offense far more than the Raiders offense. If I'm moving Clyde on the back of his first two awesome weeks, part of the Kansas City Chiefs, it is to upgrade. I'm not looking to get like a downgrade at running back plus another piece. I'm looking to upgrade my running back from Clyde to maybe a running back that is disappointed, you know, try to go Clyde plus for Dalvin Cook, something like that. I do think that you're right with the, this game maybe being closer than people are expecting right now. And they are getting Shaq Linder back at linebacker. Oh, they are? Yeah. Oh, I didn't think that was happening this week. That's great. Full participant in practice on Wednesday. So that will be.

crucial for the middle of the field. And it's not like they have given up a ton of fantasy production, the Colts, through the two struggling weeks. They just haven't been able to move the ball on offense without Michael Pittman. Jonathan Taylor didn't get enough touches last week. So at home, that game could be closer than we expect. And they're in that same boat, right? I mean, where they're fighting for that percentage chance of making the playoffs. Now, in their division, Houston, Jacksonville. Tennessee. It is completely 100% up for grabs. I mean, right now, the Jacksonville Jaguars could win this division unsurprisingly at this point. Buffalo at 2-0 taking on the 2-0 Miami Dolphins. This should be a really fun game. Draft King's Warsbook line. Buffalo minus six on the road against the 2-0 Miami Dolphins. The overrunners 502.5 points. Where's the respect for Tua?

Oh, this is just massive respect for Josh Allen. I don't think there's any disrespect to the dolphins here. This just, doesn't it remind you of when the Patriots had Randy Moss and a great defense and their lines over the course of that season couldn't get high enough? They just kept moving the lines wider and wider and wider. And you'd always take the Patriots and you'd always be right because they were just so doggone dominant. And I see your face struggling. Please tell me you're considering. the almost upset because I can't fathom betting against the bills right now. They look otherworldly. I am. That is, I'm reading you right though, right? I see your face. You're struggling. You want to push the button. I'm 2 and O on the almost upsets and so I'm a little bit. Yeah, you want to get it right. I get it. No, the Buffalo Bill's going to win the game. The question is more about what can you do with your...

How intimidated are you for the Miami offensive pieces for fantasy football by this Buffalo defense, which is the top 10 against every position? They're literally giving up 6.8 points right now to the quarterback position. Yeah, I mean, I understand how dominant the bills have been, and they did that against two theoretically good teams. They smashed the Super Bowl champion Rams, made their offensive line woes look like. woes. And obviously they completely dismantled the Titans. So there is some worry. But I think what you saw from Miami last week against the Ravens should give you confidence to say, no, I will not shy away from this matchup. I can stream Tua in this matchup. I'm never sitting Tyreek or Waddle. And I'm not afraid. All right. Tyreek and Waddle are both top five wide receivers right now in terms of

Fancy points per game through two weeks. Just putting that to the test, Jason, Russ against San Francisco, San Francisco's favorite in that game, or Tua in this one? I'm going to go Tua. Tua or Wince against Philly? Man, that is tough. I find myself wanting to buy into Wince, which is just a, it's like a known mistake. Right? Like, I know I'm making a mistake when I do that, but I'm going to go wins. That cheese looks real good on that mousetrap. Exactly. Brady? No, I would go too over, Brady. This is fantasy gold, up-tempo passing matchup. Passing rate over expectation. Buffalo is number one, Miami's third. This is wonderful. I want pretty much every passing option.

you can get in this game. I have to be the only person that has Josh Allen and got those first two 40-point weeks and 0-2 in our dynasty league. Yeah. I mean, that doesn't feel good. That feels pretty good when I have your first round pick. Right. Yeah, I don't know how that happened. I guess facing Lamar didn't help. Devin Singletary, we have not seen high value touches for the running backs within the 10-yard line. I don't like it. We saw an amazing finish to the season because of Devin Singletary last year. And here we are with, every time Zach Moss is out on the field, he is just, he's just a vacuum that sucks away fantasy points in value from the players you're playing. What he is is a shield. He is a meat shield for the bills. He exists to keep their good players healthy.

When they're up and they're doing well, they're like, send in the meat shield. We don't need to use our good players. And I think he's done admirably at that position. A snap goblin. Yeah. So, you know, they're running him into the defense or the defense is running into him. And there's no value there. If I was to play a running back, it would still be Devon Singletary. Well, I have to. So, yeah, I mean, enjoy. I'm playing him against you. Okay. I feel okay about that. Yeah, of course you do. Now, I mean, I want to know what this offense looks like in a game that stays competitive into the fourth quarter. And who's out on the field? It'll look like the first two quarters where they're going to drop back and pass. Yeah, and it just, it always works because he can run the football, Josh Allen kid. So if Gabe Davis is not active. Yeah.

I think Jake Kumero. I know that's a shocking... What? Jake Kumero is worth a look. He basically filled in the Gabe Davis roll and had 50 yards. So at the very least, if you're desperate, he's available in Dynasty Leagues right now. So now, obviously, that's only if Gabe Davis is gone. But that's a name you might be surprised to hear. Okay. We haven't said Jake Kumero's name in a long time. No, Aaron Rogers out there just saying that was my guy. Mike Gisicki has a pulse. I'm not starting him. Okay. Dawson Knox has been hurt. He's only, what, five or 46 through two weeks. With the foot injury, I was holding on to Dawson Knox. You want pieces of this offense, but with the foot injury, I'm more inclined to cut him to make room for a different tight end that you need to start. Because you can't start Dawson Knox.

right now until he's getting more targets. And Chase Edmonds, Rahim Mostert, I don't play either of those guys right now. Correct. You don't know who the starter is. You can say, oh, it's Rahim Mostert because that's who it was last week. But, I mean, it was Chase the week one. I think we're going to be in for a little bit of roulette. And the running backs not scoring a lot against the bills, 11 fancy points total, dividing that amongst Mostert and Chase, regardless of the starter. Yeah, it's not great. If I had to start one, I would start Chase Edmonds just because of the past catching assumption here in this game, but I don't want to start either. The Detroit Lions at one-on-one going to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, who are one-on-one. The Draft King Sportsbook line here, Minnesota minus seven, or sorry, Minnesota minus six. The overrunner is 53. This is another game I'm really excited about for fantasy purposes.

All the teams in the NFC North are 1-1 right now. So congratulations, you're leading the division. Both rushing defenses have been putrid. Detroit is allowing the second most expected points per rush attempt. This is the panic game. Like if Dalvin Cook does not have a monster game at home against Detroit, that to me will signify almost like a Zeke style alteration where... The offensive system is just not as conducive as the Zimmer system was to Dalvin Cook. And that could adjust the kind of range of outcomes for him. It absolutely would decimate his value. And I think that fantasy managers who have Dalvin Cook are feeling that fear. So please go right now. Stop what you're doing and go trade for Dalvin Cook. Go do it now. Do yourself a favor because it's not happening. He's not having a bad game.

to have a phenomenal game, and you will not be able to trade for him after his blowup performance. I'm very confident. Yeah, well, I, look, I've moved on from Dalvin in two leagues. So I've done a little bit of the inverse, right? Where if I, if you're right, then maybe I'm a fool. But if he struggles in this game, the value that I got for Delvin this week. it's not going to be the value you can get for him next week. 100%. I mean, obviously, you know, when you trade Dalvin, if you're getting top dollar, then that's never going to be a bad thing. If he's good, you got paid for it. If he's bad, you win. But right now, after the bad week, I think, is when you trade for him because you're not going to have to pay the top tier price. You know, maybe you could send Clyde Edwards a layer and a wide receiver to a team that...

is struggling in his 0-1-2 with Delvin Cook and snag him. Here is a wild stat on Delvin Cook. Going back to the beginning of 2021, he has four rushing touchdowns on his last 275 rushing attempts. That is one every 68 carries. Before that time period, he was averaging a touchdown every 19 carries. So you have to ask yourself. New pattern or returning to the media? Well, and the reality is the current. is astronomically an outlier. Like average running backs do not have, you know, 68.8 carries per touchdown. And Dalvin Cook is far better than an average running back. Nothing on film so far this year has said Dalvin Cook looks slow or bad. He had a really good week one. And last week, I mean, when your quarterback in Kirk Cousins implodes the way he did,

Nothing on your offense is going to go well. I'm just so disappointed that this offense has not entrusted more to Dalvin. We didn't see the designed screen game last week. We didn't see him. You won't take pressure off Kirk Cousins getting backpedaled. I just think there's some mistakes on the play calling. I'm a little worried. But Jason guaranteed it right here right now that it's a huge game. I did. I will stand by that. Justin Jefferson, always in your lineup. Kurt Cousins, love him this week and a bounce back opportunity at home. Lions giving up the third most points to fantasy quarterbacks. I think you can start Kirk Cousins this week. Absolutely. Don't be afraid this game, to the best of my knowledge, is not on prime time. I'm a little nervous about Irv Smith. He had eight targets last week. I think you have to play him if you're in that boat where you don't have one of the big ones. So we'll hopefully see. I guess I'm nervous because I'd like to add another name to the list of reliable tight ends. And, you know, when I want to do that, I'm not often allowed to.

Yeah, I mean, if you picked up Irv Smith, there's a reason you picked him up. You know, you didn't have Travis Kelsey and pick up Irv Smith off the waivers, so you're playing him because you're picking him up over guys who have been disappointing. If I had, okay, what about in this game, T.J. Hawkinson, Irv Smith. Well, I know your answer. Irv. I think it is, yeah. I think I would play, because I think Hawkinson has not shown the ability to do anything special on his own. showed flashes of that last week. I mean, I think both are pretty similar tiered tight ends, but this is going to be a great, this one would disappoint me so much if it was a shocking defensive battle. But the nice thing is I just don't think that the Detroit defense is good enough to make this a battle. I think this is going to be a fun, awesome game. Jared Goffton in play as a streaming quarterback option. Amon-Ross St. Brown.

He's on a mission. I mean, his comments about Diamie Brown. Did you see that? Oh, yeah. I mean, just another guy that got taken ahead of him in the draft, didn't see him playing in Washington. DeAndre Swift, yes, you always start DeAndre Swift. He has been so explosive. I feel like he is like Jamal Charles waiting to happen. I feel like DeAndre Swift is just, he's one workload away from the Jamal Charles type of experience where. Any play can go to the house, can catch the football. You know, Jamal Williams is representing some problems there, I guess. Yeah, but not really. That's why it's such a good comp. Jamal Charles was never the – he didn't always have to be the dude that touches the ball 300 times. Who was it Thomas Jones? Was it Thomas Jones? Was that the other running back that was there with Jamal Charles? I mean, I know Thomas Jones was with the Chiefs, yeah. Yeah, and he got a ton of work, and you started Jamal Charles every week because he was –

So good. And I think that's a great comp for Swift. Swift already said that his ankle is feeling much better than last week where he had the limited touches. Swift's a smash start every week. And then I'm going to throw out, Adam Thiel. And I think he's going to have a big week this week against this Lions defense giving up 34 and a half points to opposing fancy whiteouts. We'll talk about him more later. Ooh, spicy. Baltimore. The one in one, Ravens. taking on the one-on-one Patriots in New England, the drafting sports book line here. Baltimore minus two and a half. The over-under is 43 and a half. We have so many road favorites this week. I know. It was really hard. We do like a pick-um thing around the studio, and it was really hard because I liked all the road favorites, and I keep picking them. And I'm like, I do not like picking this many road favorite teams to cover. We're in two weeks, we're two weeks into this season and every worry about the offense.

For New England has been validated. 30th in pace of play, fewest play action pass attempts in the National Football League, despite having the kind of running back weapons that should enable that with Damian Harris and Romandre Stevenson. They have an offensive line, the running backs and the wider shift and the quarterback to run a play action system, and they're not implementing it because they have terrible. coaching at the offensive level right now. That's just the truth. I think they have talent to be a good offense. I mean, last season, this group was a very good offense. This season, year two of Mac Jones, when they should be getting better, they're getting worse. It's because of the coaching. Any interest in trading for Ramandre Stevenson, who had 62% of the snaps that did not translate into production last week, but you see the capability of this offense.

Because Damien Harris was the running back five last week. So with those, you know, you talk about who's on the field. Is there a gap between the snap counts and the production? There is. Obviously, Damien Harris was great last week. Had 17 opportunities, 15 carries, got the touchdown. And he's healthy now? Yes. Totally fine. He was not on the Wednesday practice report for the Patriots. You know, as of right now, I have a hard time trusting Ramandre. after last year and last week where we always want it to be him. Oh, man, he can catch the ball. He's so good. He's so talented. He's young. He's unknown. He should be the guy. But then it's like, it's always Damien Harris. And I'm just going to trust what's constantly been happening where Damien Harris is getting the touchdowns and having more yards and all that jazz. Now, in this specific matchup,

The pass catching might be needed a little bit more from remandre. And I do think trading for remandre on the cheap is good. And we brought this up in the studio. Trading for remandre in Dynasty is awesome because I don't think Damian Harris is here next year. And remandre has the talent to be a three-down workhorseback. Are you starting any Patriots? I'm starting Damian Harris. I am literally starting Damien Harris against you. Jacoby Myers. But the injury is a bit of a concern to put out there. Yeah, in a PPR league, he was pretty much an auto start for me as a flex level player, but you've got to monitor the knee issue. I didn't even know about that until this morning. Kyle, can you please read off the list of teams giving up more fancy points than the Ravens to opposing wide receivers? I'm done. Well, that makes sense. I mean, in two weeks when you have Waddling Terry Kilko full nuclear, I mean.

There's no doubt who gave up the most points to wide receivers. I'll bet if you took week one out, they're still close. They also have given up the most of the quarterback position, thanks to Tua. So on that side of the ball, though, Lamar has been amazing. Number one, fantasy quarterback right now, Lamar Jackson. J.K. Dobbins is just, you know, the questions just keep persisting because we don't have them back on in the field. He got a full. practice and full participant, I expect to see him this week. I will not dream of starting J.K. Dobbins until after he has proven he should be started. On the road against the Patriots is not your debut for J.K. Dobbins for your fantasy team. Yeah, I mean, the matchup is, if this was at home against Detroit, I'm not starting him guessing that he's going to get enough workload to be great in a great matchup. You wait until after he's done it.

Then you start. Baltimore tight ends have seen 47% of their targets or of the targets on this offense. Isaiah likely getting involved. Mark Andrews, obviously a dominant force. Rashad Bateman, really strong two weeks to start his post-Hollywood Brown career. Yeah, he has overproduced for the amount of targets he's getting. So you worry about like, well, you know, the underlying metrics aren't as good as his fantasy finish, but it is nice to see the talent that they drafted in the first round. to be talented on the field and score fantasy points. So with Lamar Jackson, he's the wide receiver one. I think you've got to start him every week, and he won't always have good games. But hopefully he does when you start him. And I'm starting him against you. So hopefully he does this week. Yeah, that's great. Also, speaking of JK Dobbins, I do think that now is the time that you could maybe try to trade for JK Dobbins. Okay. Someone's 0-1-2 and they struggle. They need somebody that they know is going to start. Yeah, if you could stash them.

Starts of the week momentarily, one more matchup I want to get through before the starts of the week. Cincinnati at 0 and 2 taking on the one-on-one jets in New York. Another road favorite. Drafking Sportsbook line, Cincinnati minus 5, the over-under is 45. This seems like on paper the get-right game for the Cincinnati offense, the, you know, their run to the Super Bowl. And yet, you know, last year Cincinnati did lose to them, 34-31. Cincinnati has not been efficient. on offense. Burroughs taking a ton of sacks. If you want to hear us talk in depth about this Cincinnati offense, we did it yesterday on the Unsolved Mysteries episode. But there are a ton of fantasy question marks. By the way, that line has moved to Cincinnati minus six and a half. So they're even heavier favorites. But, you know, Joe Flacco has really impressed in terms of the passing attempts, the comeback victory last week.

And more so for fantasy players, the ability for him to supply value to a Garrett Wilson, who was heavily targeted last week. Garrett Wilson had a really nice first two weeks. There's been quite a few of those rookie wide receivers. Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Jehan Dodson. Chris Oliva. Yeah, all of those players have had impressive starts. You know, they're at home in this matchup, but the Bengals defense, it's a pretty solid defense. Yeah, their defense is great, and I think you're, I think that there's some trap here in those wide receivers. Like Garrett Wilson has, he broke out. He officially broke out last week when you get the amount of targets that he got and have the fancy finish. We know he's going to be good. That's a done deal. What you don't know is how often and which games and the match up here, I mean, two weeks ago, you know, when the Jets were getting shut down,

And Joe Flacco threw it 59 times. Nobody had value because they were playing against a good defense and getting just completely shut down. I think that the Bengals scare me far more on the defensive side. They have problems on offense, but their defenses looked absolutely fine. And I don't think the Jets are going to be able to handle the Bengals defense. I don't think that Joe Flacco, the statue in the pocket, is going to have a fun Sunday. I still would start Gary Wilson. He's a start for me. I would rather bench Garrett Wilson this week. Okay. I just don't know. They're going to throw the ball 50 more times. Yeah. So I'm going to take a shot at that. You know, it's like I get literally five times the odds of success compared to starting Darnell Mooney, starting Garrett Wilson. Oh, I mean, if that's the level, I would definitely start Garrett Wilson over Darnell Mooney. I'm just saying, like, to me, I think that.

Garrett Wilson is at the range where he's in a flex consideration with other players that are, you know, that are more reasonable like questions. Curtis Samuel. Yeah, like I would start Curtis Samuel for sure. You want to water bet that? Yes. Okay. Let's do it. Let's water bet Curtis Samuel. Waterbed. Garrett Wilson does lead the NFL with eight red zone targets so far through two weeks. What's the, let's go into the mind of Jason Moore. Okay. Which is currently veiled. behind the cool, cool kid backwards cap. Where are you with Breece? 27% of snaps last week. He scored the touchdown, which was a wide open reception. That was his one target, I believe. It was. Which is great. I mean, you know, I still think he's going to be countered on by this team this year. Michael Carter has limits, right? He has constraints to what he's doing. So where are you with Breece's?

The roster status for fantasy players, when you think he could be a flex-worthy option, and are you just waiting for a breakout game from him? I'm not necessarily waiting for a breakout game because I think that any play can create a breakout game for him. I mean, you know, he only had seven carries last week, turned it into 50 yards, 7.1 a carry. He's looked exactly like how we want him to look. Explosive. He has not gotten the utilization that you want him to get. But that was also the expectation. Like when he was on the breakout's episode, it was saying you're probably not going to be starting this guy, the first several weeks of the season. This is a second half of the year breakout play, obviously downscoring last week. But it's cool that in week two, he was running back one for fantasy. You see the explosiveness. I would like to not start him this week because of the matchup. Again, everything I said against Garrett Wilson and Joe Flacco and...

Just the Jets offense against this Bengals defense holds true to, you know, holds true to Breece Hall. So next, the following week against Pittsburgh and then Miami and Green Bay, I'm in on starting Breece Hall. So maybe after this week is when you try to trade for him if you didn't draft him. Mixing, Chase, Higgins, start them all? Oh, yeah, always. Joe Burrow bounce back? A Burrow bounce? Yeah, Burrow bounce back. Man, please. A BBB. I hope he bounces back. Okay. All right. All the rankings, the starts-s-it tool on the website, the fantasy footballers.com. It's time for our starts. Starts of the week. Mr. Moore, why don't you give us your quarterback? Well, I'm going to go with Matthew Stafford this week against Arizona. He was sitting on a lot of waivers after week one in Buffalo and the beatdown. But this is the matchup you want to get him. Last year, Arizona.

Against Arizona, he went 287 yards and three touchdowns. And so far in 2022, the Cardinals are allowing the highest expected points per pass attempt in the NFL. The Rams are three and a half point road favorites again in a game that has nearly a 50 point over under. And I think he will have another great outing against the Cardinals. I believe the Cardinals have beaten the Rams once in the last 11 games. It was on the road last year early. Correct. And Sean McVeigh has pretty much completely owned the Arizona Cardinals outside of that one game. We will see the JJ Watt looked great last week for Arizona. So we'll see if the pass rush can get to Stafford with that offensive line concern from week one. If JJ plays the whole game, he'll get to Stafford. Yeah. Kirk Cousins is my start of the week against Detroit. Bounceback game for Cousins at home, not in prime time. The lions are there just like a friend.

They come alongside Kirk and they say, hey, I'm here for you because when we play against you, you average 280 and 2 has the weapons. So I'm expecting a big, big game from Kirk Cousins. He has gotten the biggest rankings bump in all my quarterbacks of anybody that you can start this week. I'm very confident in him. I am very confident in Kirk Cousins. And I'll throw out Mike's start of the week, Jared Goff. He is on waivers and is a good start this week. So if you've got. Brady or if you've got Justin Herbert. I was doing it. I'm picking up Jared Goff. Well, you're not because I picked him up to block you. He's no longer on waivers, you dummy. Also, if you're playing against Justin Herbert, just in case he's not playing, go pick up Jared Goff. Sorry about that, Andy.

My running back start of the week, that didn't feel good, did it? Justin's going to play, and then you're going to have Jared Gough on your bench, and everything's going to be fine. I dropped Devin Duverne for him. I'm fine with that. All right, so at running back, I'm going with David Montgomery. He is obviously in the rare position of being favored, and that's great. We know they want to run the ball. He looked awesome. The Texans are allowing the highest rush success rate in the NFL. Opposing running backs right now, averaging 4.86 yards of carry. It was over 100 yards last year. In neutral game scripts, the Bears are running the ball 70%, which is disgusting, but good for David Montgomery. All right, my running back start of the week. Let's begin it here. No Godwin, no Julio, no Evans, but they will have Leonard Forenett against a Green Bay defense that is just giving up a ton of yardage against opposing running backs, 153. All the dump truck. I forgot about that. Look, the dumps.