Evolving Player Opinions + Dalvin, Zeke News - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/15

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers, back with you Tuesday, August 15th. Jason Moore, Mike, the Fantasy Hitman, Ride. I'm Andy Holloway. Excited to be with you. Great episode prepared for you today. The NFL season is just right around the corner. Soon. Very soon. I think a lot of people are looking forward to this episode because there'll be some reactions to big news yesterday. What? Something happened? Nothing I heard about. I didn't see. I'm going to have to break some news to both of you today. I mean, I was on Twitter all day. It's probably good news. Yeah. I'm going to share some good news with each of you. Oh, thank goodness. All right.

Here at the top of the show, I want to let people know a couple things. First of all, thank you for supporting this podcast. Like if you enjoy the content that we're putting out and you want a simple way to say thank you for that content, you can go and leave us a review on Apple Podcast. You can rate the show wherever you're listening. You know, it helps us out in the algorithms when you do that, when you follow or subscribe on whatever platform you choose. So maybe that's YouTube. Because you can watch the show over there, YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. That's the YouTube greeting, Mike. So you can click the bell over there, subscribe. We've got a live stream coming up. I'm going to tell you about in a minute. But whether that's Apple Podcast, Spotify, it really does help the show. So we just appreciate everybody that has done that. It seems like people are doing that a lot because last I checked, fantasy football and this podcast. Mm-hmm.

was the number one. Oh, the number one sport. We're number one. Sports show on Spotify. And Apple. And Mike, Mike went on a local Los Angeles, uh, news media program. Mm-hmm. And the first question he received was, are you surprised that your show is the number one sports show? Uh, And I don't know. It's a tough question to answer when you're not surprised in the slightest. Of course not. Because the foot client is incredibly mighty. I had a birthday party. I have to tell you this because it's the first time I've ever heard it, which means I need to pay more attention to my family. But birthday party for my kids. They have birthdays 10 days apart. We do them together to spare everybody two parties. Good man. Yeah, I know. I'm looking out.

So we have this birthday party, tons of people at the house. And we're in the middle of moving and my uncle's sitting there. And he's been a big supporter of me throughout my life and the show. And he was actually the person that introduced me to fancy football like 20 years ago when you did it in newspapers and stuff. And he was just congratulating us on the success of the show and going into a new year and just being very nice. And then he goes, he goes, when you started this thing, he goes, There were a lot of eye rolls. He said there were a lot of eye rolls in the family. And I go, what? These people, they all seemed like they were on board with this plan to make a podcast about fantasy football. I'm going to need a list. So apparently not a lot of confidence out there, just like the gentleman you were interviewed by, kind of shocked that fantasy football is that powerful. Yeah, that is fair. When you're not.

as insane as we are and most listeners of this show. You don't realize there's millions of us. I mean, it didn't seem that insane at the time, but I guess it was. Yeah, it's crazy. But, you know, at this point, we're just used to it. You know, it's just like, oh, number one again. There we go. Jason always can be counted on. I too, am extremely humble. All right, we got cool stuff going on right now. So first, thank you for supporting the podcast this time of year. It's really important and we appreciate it. Especially everybody over at jointhefoot.com, all of our Patreon supporters. Love you guys. Thank you so much. We are giving away an ultimate draft kit for life.

The UDK, it's our pride and joy. We've poured so much effort and time into this thing year over year, improving it, building it out, helps you win your league. We're giving away an Ultimate Draft Kit for life, along with a signed Derek Henry Jersey and a signed T. Higgins mini helmet, three separate winners. All you have to do to enter the contest is head over at ultimate draft kit.com and pick up the UDK or the UDK Plus before our live stream on Friday, which will be at 6.30 p.m. Eastern time. Actually, the live stream is at 6 Eastern. The giveaway will be towards the end of that live stream at 6.30. And we will announce the winners on the live stream. So anybody that has purchased it up to this point and anybody that gets it this week before Friday. Jason has purchased a giant golden tumbler. Oh, really? Yeah. It takes 10 men to operate. Okay. As long as he purchased it and it wasn't on the...

Company. I purchased it with the company card. Dang. Dang it. So that's huge. UltimateDraftKit.com. Pick that up. That UDK. For Life giveaway. We've done this for a few years now. We got the list of people. And they just, they just send Papa Josh a note and say, hey, it's me. It's me. I've got the, I've got the UDK. Give it to me. And then he's legally obligated to hand deliver it to your house. Yeah. Yeah. He's flying all over the country. Yeah, we send him all over the place. But so that's going on. And then we have a live show at the end of August. You can learn about attending that. It's in Los Angeles. Ballers Live.com presented by Underdog Fantasy. We'll be live with a very special episode, a live Q&A. And that's next Saturday. Wow. You've got to be kidding me. No. I'm looking at the calendar right now. And if my calculations are correct, that's next Saturday. I'm ready for that, Mike. Next Saturday? It's a lot of work we got to do. But it's going to be.

Quite the show. Bowlerslive.com. All right. And Ducers, I guess you guys can help out with the live show, too, if you want. We'll be there. We're there. Good. Yeah, everyone will be there. Quick question of the day for today's episode. Look, it's been a long offseason. We've been talking about players from the moment after the Super Bowl finished to now. Which players fit into that category of players you are changing your minds about? I'll hop in here first because we talked about this player yesterday, and it's just the drumbeat and everything that's happened this offseason just has continued to be just slammed, which is Darren Waller. Darren Waller is a guy that when I first started my rankings out, he was leading the Giants in targets, but it still wasn't, I just didn't believe it was going to be.

Quality targets, a lot of touchdowns, whether or not he still had it. And so he was like my tight end eight, tight in nine, and I just keep moving him up. And then this morning I go and I read, I'm reading from 32 beatwriters on Twitter, great follow. Here's a quote from yesterday's practice. Darren Waller was an absolute monster at practice Monday, caught three of Daniel Jones. First six passes and live drills for touchdowns. finished with six catches on eight targets that day, also dominated one-on-ones. Which, of course, he's going to dominate one-on-one. 50% target share, that's what we're talking about. There's a consensus right now that Darren Waller might have had the best camp of any offensive player in the NFL. So throughout camp, and also a note of yesterday's incredible performance, which is just a repeat of the days before. Daniel Jones, I believe, completed his first 17 passes in practice.

And if you throw it to Darren Waller, your odds do go up of completing those passes. I think we are all, it's one of those areas where we have all been like targeting Darren Waller, excited about the possibility of Darren Waller having success there in New York. Yeah, at the beginning of at the beginning of the off season, I think it was a big question mark. Yeah, I mean, if I look at my best ball exposure, I'm very low on Darren Waller. I don't have a ton. I've been passing him in drafts. It's basically been, you know, Andrews in the third. I didn't know you liked Andrews. Maybe Pitts if he falls to the seventh. And then otherwise I'm going three tight-in builds late. But Darren Waller looks like he's going to be a stud this year. Yeah, I agree. And by the way, our answers to.

players we were building or like they had risen in our rankings because last Thursday we did that question for training camp performances those answers was DJ Moore Jason you said Giovante Williams Mike it was a Flowers this is more of a not just moving players up but actually changing your mind about their outcomes where are you at Mike first Just for no reason at all, I'm kind of changing my mind just a little bit on Ramandre Stevenson. Really? Yeah, I just had a disturbance in the force. Just a feeling. Yeah, just a real gut. Yeah, we haven't talked news. Real gut feeling. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know what news you're talking about. But the player really I want to talk about is like I just iced out this player. I was. Yeah, he took it personally. I we. Apparently.

Like, you're welcome, everyone. I motivated Alvin Camara. He cares incredibly about the opinion of the fantasy footballers and me, A-list podcaster, Mike Wright. Oh, my gosh. But Alvin Camara, it, I was concerned over the past two years of what Alvin Camara has done. The touches have gone up. The efficiency has absolutely plummeted. But, and we try not to let too much of real positive things affect things one way or the other, because. coaches generally are going to speak positive about their players, but it has been an overwhelming amount of positivity for Alvin Camara. He will have the three games suspension, so that's going to be a drafter's choice. Are you willing to hold on to that? But again, everything out of camp is just saying Camara is explosive. You watch the preseason. Camara, look, think about what's changed.

For you to change your mind, though, because we have an injured. Kendrae Miller is definitely a part of it. Because part of my fading of Alvin Camara was if he's going to miss three games and Kendra Miller is the player who was drafted in the third round while injured. A running back was drafted while he was hurt. Teams don't like to do that on a day two pick. If he came in in those first three weeks and you're like, holy crap, Kendra Miller is looking like the real deal. That's a big problem for Alvin Camara. now he's hurt again the same knee that was already hurt. They're hopeful that he'll be ready to go week one. But if he's not getting these reps right now in training camp, week one is. Yeah, he's not coming out and getting 20 carries. Even if he plays week one, it will still be. He may not even see the field. Right. It'll be Jamal Williams, who is the primary backup. So I have, I'm opening, I'm opening to the idea that Camara will have another ride where he'll be at least worth his ADP. I'm not, I'm not putting him back into the top five where he's been.

But he might be an okay draft pick. This is not waiting on Hopkins six weeks. You've got three weeks. You've got to wait with Alvin Camara. And to be clear, like just to remind folks of where things stood a week ago, a week ago, Kendra Miller was healthy. And a week ago, Kenyon Drake, or not King, a week ago, Cream Hunt. Yes, was visiting. Was about to be signing a contract on this team. That is a different landscape that goes well beyond any puff pieces in camp. Yep. I will whisper thy name. Yeah, whisper it for me. I will whisper at a volume equivalent to the stature of this gentleman. Oh, you don't got to, you don't got to do them dirty like that. Oh, you've been doing the little guys dirty all off season. Yeah, but you don't. I'm the mean one. Devon A chain. Yeah, baby. And I, my mind is changing on Devon A chain simply because the camp performances have been solid.

The draft cost is nothing. And if you wanted to look at him as a, you know, a discounted Jamir Gibbs in drafts, that's a fair situation. Like Gibbs, Gibbs has tremendous upside. I put the tweet out there, like, who do you think my my guys are? Because that episode is Friday. The most common answer for people who, assuming my, my guys, Jamir Gibbs was on there. And Jamir Gibbs has to compete with David Montgomery for high value touches. And we don't know what that breakdown is going to be like. Devon A-Chain has to compete with, I think, too talented but fragile running backs in Miami, players that this organization was willing to look at Dalvin Cook pretty sincerely because, you know, Mostert has frequently been hurt. Good year last year. Good camp and starts as the starter.

But the pathway for Devon A chain, you can't make the argument that it's not similar to what Kendrae Miller was facing when he was healthy or Jemir Gibbs is facing. Like this is an NFL full of committees. And so Devon A chain can make his mark. And one of those two players gets banged up, falls out of favor, fumbles the football, talent generally wins out in those situations on a good offense. So A chain is just not somebody that is a risk where you're drafting them right now. with tremendous positive upside, collegiate production. You have to, these situations are always very difficult when you say, you know, this percentage of players at this size don't perform. Because it's a self-fulfilling prophecy to a degree at the NFL level. It's always ammo for arguments against players. But it's also like indicative of where they're drafted. Like players of that stature also don't get the opportunities

to give you a large enough sample size to really lean into those numbers. Yeah, okay, so small guys don't do it very often because they don't get drafted very often. So it's like you don't have 100 guys that are top, you know, five round picks that are that stature that have had the chance and then failed. So it's always difficult to look at those things. You know, we see Deuce Vaughn having success. We've seen the shrinking wide receiver position. You need to look at it on surface level and say Devon A chain has a chance. That's all I'm saying. Yeah, Devante Smith, when he was coming out, the, I mean, the haters were out in full force. The historical argument against Devante Smith was amazing because it was like.

It was so universally like he can't, he can't make it. At his BMI, he's too skinny. He cannot succeed in the NFL. We have so much historical evidence. But the thing that was missing is kind of what you just said in it. He was like, well, yeah, but you also don't have a bunch of these guys BMIs that are being drafted. in the first round of the NFL draft because they're great. And Devon A chain was a day two pick. The NFL said, no, this guy's really good. We're going to spend really important draft capital on him because he is good. And if you want an example of how Andy has changed, if you want to know what he used to think on May 15th at 307 p.m.

May, June, July, August. Okay. Okay. This is just after the NFL draft when Andy and I placed a $100 wager against one another. Andy says A-chain, do you remember the bet? I do not. I think, is it most are related? Nope, it's just A-chain carry count per game. Andy says A-chain will not average over six carries a game. Jason says, of course he will. I don't know. That's 100 carries on the season. I'm going to warn you because victory laps made when zero carries have happened are not necessarily. I'm victory lapping that you're... That's 100 carries. That's why we did it. 100 carries. I'm victory lapping that your opinion has changed. And I would guess that if I went to see your stats in the ultimate draft kit... I'm going to go look right now. It has to be more than 100. It's...

probably more than 100. I'm going to go take a little peek ski. Mine is not. Really? I was going to say that number still, it's still an interesting number because if those guys stay healthy, I don't think he hits it. That's, um, you're lucky that it's carries. 98. 98 rushing attempts, everybody. All right. Okay. The bet stands. Like you're, it, it's carries. A chain will need to get targets. Like, I, um, I'm, Again, you know, we have to stay water and be willing to change our opinions on what's going on. I'm still not in on A chain. Listen, Jamir Gibbs was drafted where? In the first round, like 12 overall or something? Pick 12. If Jamir Gibbs was drafted in the second or third round, you'd be talking about him as a Ronald Jones potential bust. He's 5'9 under 200 pounds. Yeah. But because the draft capital is there.

I haven't heard a soul give me the historical numbers of why Jimere Gibbs is going to fail. Not a person has told me that since he got drafted at 12. Yes, because we say, oh, yeah, but he got drafted at 12. I know. But that's what I'm saying. Like there aren't a lot of guys that size that get drafted that high. So Gibbs is also like, what, $1.99? He's right on the 200 costs. Changing your mind is not the same question as saying what's a player you're all in on. That's not what we said. Sure. I still have Moster ahead of him and fantasy points with here, Jason. I have both. Oh, speaking of Moster, he was just talking up a chain yesterday, talking about how, uh,

How good a day he had. He shows that versatility and burst. He's not the biggest. I was telling him, you've got to use that aggression to promote that speed. Oh, wait. Wait, it's nice. Teammate talks up teammates? Yeah. Incredible. In Miami? Yeah. It's nice when the starter puts in a good word for the backup. You've done it. I'm changing my rings. Jason somehow made me. Get out of here with that crap. Jason made me want to talk bad about the guy, just talk good about it. You just made that in me. I make people feel things. Back in a minute.

With some news you guys don't know about. Okay. We are back. Let's jump into some news. I mean, I've heard about it, but I'm going to break it to these guys get their reaction. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. I did hear J.K. Dobbins is back. He is back. Yeah, I saw him on the field. Yeah. Both legs. Very excited. Dalvin Cook. What happened with Dalvin? signed a one-year deal with the New York football jets worth up to $8.6 million. I lied. This one I heard about. Oh. And this one. Seven million in base salary. This one brought me tremendous joy. Oh, did it. Oh, did it? Oh, tell me. Tell me more. Because I look, I'm a selfish man. I run a lot of things through my own personal filter. Jason has.

Brees Hall as his dude in the dynasty league. Yep. And now not only does he have to deal with returning from an ACL, he has to deal with Dalvin Cook getting seven million dollars. Eat it, Zeke. I mean, Zeke got like up to six million. I think only three million. guaranteed. And then you come in here with Dalvin. I don't know what news you're talking about. We have, we haven't brought out news yet. Don't jump off of your news. My news is, there's no distraction. Look, here's the real news. Breece Hall activated from the pup baby. He's back. He's like, oh, Dalvin's here. I got to get on that field. No, no, no, no. It is funny timing. Yeah, it's like, okay, we'll pull you off of that. I'm not feeling so good, coach.

Okay, great. We're going to bring in some reinforce. We got Dalvin Cook come in. Oh, I'm healed. So see you soon. Let's talk to fantasy applications here of the arrival of Dalvin. This morning, the UDK always updated with all this news that you guys hadn't heard about. You guys still updated your rankings despite not hearing about it. Right. I asked Jason this morning after I did my numbers where he had Breece Hall ranked. And I told him... And we have them ranked the same exact spot. Ooh. Yeah, and obviously we did it independently, and I have a different process. I kind of break the Jets season specific to Brees Hall coming back into three chunks, like the first four weeks. I think they're going to ease Brees in very slowly. I think you'll have kind of a 10-week chunk where it's split rather evenly between these guys.

And by the end of the season, Brice Will absolutely win out. He's the best player in that backfield. He's too explosive. And by the time he's fully healthy at the end of the season, he will be carrying the workload. That's how I'm projecting this. So I broke into three chunks for both players, statted them out on three chunk basis. Andy comes in, totally different process, totally different issue. And then we end up at the same exact spot, which is... We have Breece Hall at Running Back 21. I have them at 18. I like it. I like to hear it. I still don't, like, I know I have. The difference is we both have Dalvin Cook at a different spot. I think I'm 21 and 24. Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook, 21, 24. You have Dalvin Cook lower. Yeah, I'm 21 and 31 for, for Breece and Delvin. I don't personally see a situation where this isn't a pure split committee for the duration of the year.

I don't see any world where Brees Hall is getting more reps than Dalvin Cook. In any game this year, the Dalvin Cook is healthy. I believe they brought him in there. I believe he still has juice. I went back and watched every rep he had over the last handful of games of the season. I think both players are going to make huge contributions to this roster. And I don't think that this coaching staff is going to look at it as. This is better than that. I think it's going to be a rotation. This is my personal take. So I look at it more even over the year. Jason's commentary on Bruce Hall says, yes, he may finish at 21, but his value to your team might be 10, 12, 8 at the end of the year because you believe he's going to take over. It's just a difference in our belief about this team and what they, what they're trying to do.

Dalvin Cook is invaluable, not just on the football field, but as a veteran and as a leader and as an experienced player heading into the playoffs, which I think the Jets will be competing for. Unless Dalvin has a marked on the field decline. That's my take, Mike. Where do you sit? It's an absolute disaster. I lean more on the side that I'm interested. I'm still interested in Brees Hall. Let's see what happens to the ADP. I think it'll go down. but not dramatically. And I think that by the end of the year, Breece Hall will still be the 1A. You don't give Dalvin Cook $7 million guaranteed to bring him in to be just a backup. But I think that it will be Breece Hall at the top of the timeshare around the 50, 60% mark of the season. What does that do for Dalvin Cook as a draft pick? Because people have still been drafting Dalvin Cook just on the hope that...

Some of those big explosive plays that we've seen last year, does he get onto a good team? Where do you guys think that Dalvin Cook should be drafted where you would feel, this is safe, this is an appropriate, I'm going to get Dalvin Cook, which we just, we got some word that Coach Salas is saying he's very confident Breece will be ready week one. So that's good news to hear. That doesn't mean that Breece Hall is a workhorse running back week one. We didn't, we haven't expected that. So Dalvin Cook could be. More valuable early. Yeah, he could have real value early, but how high of a pick are you willing to risk on that early value knowing that it could fade away? Like he could lose value over the course of the season. Yeah, I mean, depending on how far he goes on each platform, Dalman Cook could be the better pick as far as draft day value just because he will have better games at the beginning of the season than Brees. Like Brees week one,

To me, I'm going to be trying to bench him. I want to see what, I'm going to, you know, wait until he gets into the rotation. As far as where I would draft Dalvin Cook, I'm looking at sleeper. Dalvin or Giovante Williams? Yeah, that's really, really interesting. I want to throw some out there. It's always helpful. I think I would go Javante. I go Javent cook or Zach Charbonnet. Dalvin. That was, that's a Dalvin for me for sure. Delvin cook or Rashad White, who is healthy. Dalvin. Okay. So we split you there. Damian Pierce or Dalvin Cook? Damian Pierce. James Cook, Dalvin Cook. James Cook. James. James Dalvin Cook. That's his name. That is his name. Please tell me Dalvin's middle name is James. It is. It is James Cook and James Dalvin Cook. Those are their real names. Okay. That is a fact. I don't know if this is a bit. It is a bit.