Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early RB Rankings Part 2

When he played a full 16, it was beautiful. And then it was healthy from the, I mean, he's not an injury risk guy anymore. We don't even consider him that. And so. Same with Matt Forte earlier. Right. So Carlos Hyde, just because he has been in his first few years, does not mean he will always be an injured guy. But he certainly will be a risk this year until he proves he can get through a season. I agree. 16 is Spencer where?

I'm realizing now how many question marks this middle tier has. And actually when I was looking at my rankings before. This is why I traded for C.J. Anderson. Yeah. I mean, it's just kind of like, it's funny. I have a horrible metaphor to bring up when relating to these players. Can't wait. I just see like a pile of old CDs with scratches on them. And I don't know when I play the album whether or not the song's going to come out. That's fair. Because, you know.

Spencer where? Do they draft someone? 30% of our audience has never owned it. I know. A compact disc. 30% of our audience has no clue. Do you remember those old disc repair kits they'd sell? Yeah. And they'd be like $499, it seemed like, to buy those things. And I just, I don't understand how those can even work. They'd like fill, I think they'd fill in the scratches with like a plastic or something. So it just, it would.

power through it essentially? Because, I mean, the data has been scratched out. I don't know if it has. I don't know what. I think it maybe messes the laser up more than, I don't know. Wrong podcast. Scientists come forward and answer these important compact disc questions. I love Michael Keaton. All right. Wow. I had to get in on that one. Spencer where? Spencer where? Where are you? You started like a like a.

bat out of hell and you ended like, you're trudging through the mud. I mean, it was not, I just don't think they can go into the season and hand the ball to him for the whole season. See, I disagree. I think that Spencer Ware, if he was guilty of anything, it was guilty of setting the expectations with his week one because he was still overall solid on the season, much like Lamar Miller, he wasn't, you know, just giving you these.

This huge spectacular games, but he was solid. 214 carries, 42 targets, and that's in 14 games. Where do you have, on your individual rankings, do you have him ahead of guys like Lamar Miller? Let me pull it up. I have said I need to move Miller up. I had Miller at 18. Right now where is 16 or 13. So Miller will move up. They'll probably be very close to each other. But if where his risk to me is.

There's a lot of rumors of Kansas City making a move in the draft. If they do, then I will adjust where accordingly. But if they move in with where is the main running. They've already signed CJ Spiller. Like I said, if they make a move in the draft, I'll move him down. He just, he was not scoring touchdowns of the top 20 running backs for fantasy and where was 16.

He had three rushing touchdowns. So he was still a strong RB2 with a complete lack of rushing touchdowns. Pulling him, Elvin Gordon from two years ago. Yeah, which made no sense because he had 18 carries inside the tent. Right. To me, that's, well, a positive regression will happen for Spencerware if he's going to get those carries again. Yeah, that's a strong case. If he has the role.

Yeah, that's a situation. Everything is if he has the role. Well, the other way to look at that, though, is that he was inefficient inside the 10, which would be a strong reason. And I believe that Kansas City will go draft a good running back. So we'll have to wait. And after the draft, this is why we call these the early running back. So Kansas City, Denver, of all the players he talked about so far, those are the two.

that you think have the highest potential of drafting a running back. Until we get to the next team. Well, not the two highest potential of drafting a running back in the league. No, no, no. Of the players, yes. And now we go. And that brings us to Rob Kelly. Rob Kelly. I do not think Washington drafts a running back. Which is, oh, really. Clearly the general public does. Because they have them as an ADP of 7-Ele, which is back behind Crowell.

You don't think they do. I think they'll draft a running back, but I don't think they're drafting a starting running back. What you have with Robert Kelly is the inverse of what you have with Todd Gurley in the sense that Gurley is afforded a long leash due to his draft position, stock investment of the team, etc. Robert Kelly could absolutely maintain a starting role, but much like Matt Jones.

The leash may be very short if the production isn't there. You went from, there were, I think Matt Jones ended up, what, he was in the top five after a couple weeks last year, and then poof. Well, he got theitis. The fumbleitis. Well, but it's easier to take that job away from a guy without pedigree, draft pedigree, than it is somebody that you have further trust in. So I just.

Look, all these guys have their risks. All these guys, it's not nitpicking anymore like it was in the top five running backs. It's, you're at number. There's legit problems. Yeah, you're at number 17 here. And so you have to make a decision between, hey, do I, you know, at least the risk with Robert Kelly and the current ADP is, is nothing. Right. I mean, yeah. What is his ADP? It's almost the eighth round. Oh, give me Rob Kelly in the eight. That will go way, way, way up. If they don't draft somebody. And if they don't draft somebody. And if they don't draft someone.

I like Rob Kelly a good amount. Once he was the starter, weeks 8 through 17, he was running back 14. And that includes a final week of the season where he was played through a knee injury, which he did have off-season knee surgery. He had two kind of clunkers in the middle of that. He will be the goal line and the first and second down back for a very high-powered offense, which makes him.

a guy that i would target in those as a as an rb two he's not an rb one certainly but an rb two would be i'd love to have rob kelly on my team yeah i i agree with that the the main problem you have with rob kelly is he is not a pass catcher

He's not efficient with it. He's not good at it. And he's not really used in that role either. So you have a good running back, who I believe is a good running back. I mean, he very rarely gets tackled for a loss, always falls forward. And he's got a great offensive line, good offense. He's a businessman. Yeah. He's coming. He's, he's, he's, he's, uh, poor men's Alfred Morris.

I think he might just be Alfred Morris. I think it is Alfred Morris back in and he put on a different name. You guys are forgetting how good Alf was. Oh, I know. He was always a businessman though. No, no, no. I agree with that. Always. I'm saying production wise. He's going to be a poor man's Alfred Morris. Okay. I see. I see. Possibly. All right. We'll move on. Theo Riddick, number 18 on our rankings.

Kind of the first big PPR name. Say he is the opposite of Rob Kelly. Yeah. He's not going to get a lot of carries. No. He's not getting carries. He's not being efficient with those. He's getting receptions. He's a salesman. And the reason he is this high on our list is because this is a half point PPR format. So for instance, I have him down next year for 75 receptions. When you get points a half or full.

per reception, and most running backs are getting like 30 or less, and you get 75, you're scoring a lot of extra points, and you always have the opportunity with those receptions to gain even more yards than carries. So that's where Theoretic comes up. I think his role as well is a little bit safer in the sense that if they were to go bring in AP, I think that it will be Theoretic, not Amir Abdullah.

who has established himself as that third down role. Yeah, he's very valuable to this team. He only played 10 games last year. They missed him in the back half of the season. In 2015, he had 80 receptions. Last year, he was on pace for 84 before the injury. So this is his role. I mean, he's carved it out. You've seen two years of it. He had the wrist surgery. He should be back. He should be in camp. And he's a great value. Right now in a standard league, he's almost a ninth round pick. In PPR, he's a sixth round pick. I think...

Theoretic is somebody that nobody really loves to click the draft button on because you don't get the prototypical production. He's like Danny Woodhead. You know, you just kind of like, boy, I'd sure rather have a guy that I know is getting 15, 20 carries than I would. I really hope he gets five or six, seven receptions and scores. That being said, the value's there. He should bounce back. He's only 26 years old. And he had five receiving TDs in only 10 games. So Theoretic.

Another team that could definitely draft a running back, another team that could definitely sign a running back. But like Jason said, the role seems to be carved out for Riddick. We have them as our consensus number 18. Not always the sexiest of picks, but somebody who should finish in that top 24 at the running back position. Completely agree. Latavius Murray, a fun guy to talk about. Last year was 13th in the league in Oakland in only 14 games. And the year before was number 11. Now, he is. He moves to Minnesota this year.

and also just had surgery. So talk about Latvia. Well, actually, I was going to tell you to talk about him because the only reason he is in our top 20. Mike has him 23. I have him 24 is because you have him at 16. So I think you are believing that he can do more with that offense and with that offensive line than at least I believe. I'll speak for myself. I think he's going to be.

I don't know, slightly better than Matt Oziata? Well, look, the thing that makes him better than Matt Oziata is that he's going to have a more defined higher carry role. And the best comparison for Latavius Murray and my projection for his season would actually be what Todd Gurley did last year. And Todd Gurley ended up as the number 17 running back. So I have Murray at 16. This is an offense that can move the ball. This is an offense that was highly efficient with Sam Bradford. And so you put Latavius Murray who can catch it.

In goal line situations, I think he falls the right direction enough times to put you at that number 16 ranking. They invested their money into Latavius Murray. I'm not expecting Latavis Murray to ever give you those high profile Jaya Jai type of weeks. This is a Lamar Miller light type of situation for Latavius Murray. That's how I haven't projected last year and the year before it would have ended up top 12 both seasons.

Loses that offensive line for sure. And so I did take him down a few pegs for sure. Yeah, he moves from Oakland who averaged one and a half yards before contact for running backs to Minnesota under a yard. And you also have the red flag of Latavius Murray behind that Oakland offense was four yards a carry. And I understand yards per carries. It is what it is. It can be kind of good and kind of bad. But Murray was at four. Meanwhile, his counter points.

Dewash, almost five and a half. Jalen Richard, almost six. And those guys, that was over 80. It's over 80 carries, so that's enough of a sample. It's enough of a sample for them to have great production. But come on, when Oakland's winning these games and they're running the clock out, they're just handing it to La Javis Murray to run into the line. Whenever they had it started the game. He runs into the back of the line. I'm just saying that much of a disparity is a bit of a red flag.

Meanwhile, Minnesota running backs averaged 3.2 yards per carry last year. It was historically bad for Minnesota. I want a new stat. I got a new one. You want to figure this one out for me? Sure. Go give me the yards per carry first half for the whole season. I want to know who had the best first half yards per carry. I like that a lot. And how much, just eliminate like garbage time. Sure.

Or maybe a three-quarter thing or something. But I think it would be interesting to know. Not that I think it's going to bend any direction for Murray. But when you think about closerbacks, Washington and Richard is so little. I mean, it was Murray at the end of every game affecting those numbers. Yeah, no, that would be a... Last thing I want to do is be the Latavius Murray Apologist. I think we all agree he is not a great player. But I can get on board the fact that he is the clear starting running back for an NFL team. And that brings value because...

There's not that many. Yeah, there's a lot of question marks out. He's a fourth round pick. I think that's okay. I'm pretty much fine. Latavis Murray is my running back too. Does not bother me this year. And you had, I tweeted this out, but Jerich McKinnon had 28 receptions in the final five weeks. If you're looking at, I mean, there is a clear trend of what happened with McKinnon and Ozziata last year. When AP went down, they...