Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early RB Rankings Part 2

from the league for the sake of fantasy football. Well, what if the whole, what if you can, it's still a penalty, but whatever you gained on the particular play, you still get that fantasy production. I like it. NFL.com will add that for a fee. Number 13 on our running back rankings, early running back rankings. I'm excited to talk about him. I think he's in that potential breakout category for our draft kit.

Which, by the way, sleepers, breakouts, busts, all of that will be in there as well. Isaiah Crowell, big year last year when I think people really didn't expect him to have success. Certainly yards per carry wise on the ground in an offense that went through six quarterbacks. Ended up finishing the year. He's been healthy for all three of his years, 16 games a year, made the jump up from a running back three finish to high running back two finish last year at number 14.

Now you have an improved offensive line. Monstrously improved. It's a good way to put it. I'm just saying they've taken their offensive line and they've said we're a top five. That's the reason that I see Crowell is such a great sleeper is because he's going to have the opportunity to run behind a line that will be opening up big holes for him. And while last year people complained about the fact that such a high percentage of his yardage came on such a low.

volume of carries. He had a few big, going to bring that up. A few big breakout runs, and I don't necessarily expect that to repeat. He'll have the opportunities for big breakaways with what that O-line should be able to give him. Still yet to have 200 carries in a season. Yeah. They have not even handed in the ball 200 times in one season. And that number from Adam Spinks, you know, the the RB Scout on Twitter, he talked about Isaiah Crowell.

for the running back position, he had 26% of his yardage from five carries, which was the biggest percentage for any running back, which, I mean, so you weigh that how you want to is bad and good. Right. At the exact same time, he did have some games where he crapped your team. I mean, he had eight games of under 45 rushing yards.

But they're giving him the ball, double-digit carries in 11 games. You know that Hugh Jackson has a fantastic running back scheme or blocking scheme for his offensive line. They target the running back. The main guy always gets targeted heavily. The Cleveland Browns had 139 targets to the running back that was tied for fourth. However, percentage-wise, that was number one in the league. That could change because...

Like Jason said, there was 5,000 quarterbacks. Oh, there will be again this year. So we aren't sure what the actual trend will be. But Crowell, I agree with Andy, that I like Crowell as a possible breakout guy, but he, his draft price is going to be very interesting to me as well. You have to really like the improved reception totals. Doubling is going up to 40 on 52 targets, high percentage.

of passes caught there and doubling his yardage in the passing game. Well, and just to speak to what Mike just said, you know, it's a matter of that draft price. That's why Crowell, to me, is valuable. You feel like people still won't buy in? As of right now, he's late fifth round. Ooh, I would love that. I mean, look at the two guys before him. C.J. Anderson is in the third round. Jay Ajai is in the second round. Isaiah Crowell.

5.09. Crowell's being drafted behind, you know, Eddie Lacey and Jeremy Hill. Crowell is a guy that I think is going to be on a team that wants to run the ball. I have him projected for 225 carries, despite the fact that he's never had 200 carries. He's been up each year, though. So a bump up makes sense. And I think they're going to be able to run the ball more with that offensive line. So, Mike, are you preparing your pipes for potential cacos? Oh, I'm always ready for that. You know I have a soft spot in my heart for the crow. Yeah.

Yeah, you do. I can't believe we didn't get one immediately out of the gates here. Well, it was... To be fair. It's my fault. The crow is Andy's guy. This off season so far, the crow has been Andy's guy. All right. Well, then let's talk about my guy. Okay, he was literally one of the three my guy candidates last year. How are you literally? How is he literally your guy? Literally on our... Jason's guy. On our my guy episode.

last season. He was one, and I would say most people feel like he disappointed. He didn't have a terrible season. He finished, you know, still as a very high RB2. Just behind Todd Gurley. Isn't that a shame? But Lamar... 14 games, bro. Lamar Miller. Yeah, I know. He only played 14 games. Give him two more games and he's probably a low-end one. Give him Gurley two more.

Girlie gets 18 games a year. That reminds me of Kingpin. Oh, yes. He's like, we do everything two times more than you, so we play 18 frames. Oh, my gosh. That's a great reference, Mike. No, but so Lamar Miller, let's talk about Lamar Miller. He is a guy that, honestly, I don't like that he's this low in our consensus rankings. I certainly don't have him this low in our consensus rankings. I believe the reason he is there is Mike. Both Andy and I have him at 11.

a low end R to be one. I do need to move him up. What happens between if Tom Savage is the quarterback or a rookie drafted or Tony Romo is the quarterback, those outcomes for Lamar Miller are drastically different for me. Right now I've got him slotted like 70% towards Tony Romo. So if we go into the season with Tom Savage, I'll move him down from 11. But I think if Tony Romo signs,

He's probably going to end up as my eight or nine running back. And that's fair. I mean, I think everybody's disappointed when you went from the lower touches numbers, but finish nine and five with Miami. You come into Houston, and the wheels fell off for that offense and the team in Osweiler. I'm laughing because...

You brought up Tom Savage and I saw the interview with O'Brien at the meetings and he just, you know, these coaches and they're straight-faced, you know, we're so excited about Tom and Whedon. I mean, he said, I mean, he just, we're so excited about Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden and we feel comfortable with these guys. This is his exact word.

And it's like a man sitting in a porcupine chair saying how comfortable he is. It's just he has to do it through wincing. I totally love it. So, yeah, look, I'm okay with him sitting at 14 right now. That's good stuff. I'm fine with him sitting at 14 because honestly, he's one of the guys in his early rankings, which is it's not fair to rank because it matters so much. His upside is captive, Tom Savage is the quarterback.

End of story. Same with Hopkins and Fuller and everybody on that offense. The thing you were, Andy, you were talking about how you get that shine when you have the explosive games like J. J. Jai. That's what Lamar Miller did not have. You're right. He had that on. He had won. And he was the Clinton Portis of the current age. He was consistent 12 points a game type of guy. Yeah. And a lot of that is just.

a severe lack of touchdowns from what you would expect for Lamar Miller. Yeah, and that lack of touchdowns was for the Texans, not just Lamar Miller. He actually performed well. If you look at his efficiency stats, they have a good offensive line as well. So I think if they get a good quarterback in there that can have their team start scoring points, Lamar Miller can easily be like a top five running back if he's getting 260 carries, plus he's involved in the passing game.

But we certainly have to wait. It's an interesting thing. I mean, you look at those numbers. 268 carries, five touchdowns. Crowell had seven last year. 31 receptions. Crowe had 40 last year and more yardage. It's just a matter, I think, in both situations, what you put around these guys might make the difference on who you'd rather have. However, Lamar Miller going in the second round, seventh pick. Right, versus the fifth round. Versus the fifth round. Yeah, see, I can almost guarantee Crow. I mean, his ADP is going to climb into the fourth.

But I might not climb any higher than that. That's why he's going to end up in our breakout list. I'm going to tell you. Houston, we have a problem. We do. Please. I know I've been touting Romo to the Broncos all offseason, but let's make this happen, Houston. Just go get him. Go get Romo. Trade. Just pay the price.

Just pay. Yeah. You hear Jerry Jones talk about Romo. The deadline for a decision on Romo is camp so that somebody can come in and have to Ryan Fitzpatrick that situation and bring a guy in real late where they don't have time. So stupid. Just make it happen. But, I mean, what's the consequence to Dallas? Dallas is being smart. There's no consequence to them to wait other than the fact that might get a pick out of it. Well, their cap. I mean, they're eating a ton of money. They could have done something. They could have added another player. Maybe they wouldn't lose Ronald Leary.

They have lost a lot of pieces in their secondary, man. Their defenses has been just picked apart. But they still have Tony Roman. Yeah, they got the highest paid backup. Number 15 on our consensus running back rankings, a guy that, honestly, my kind of internal dialogue feels a lot like C.J. Anderson with this guy. Very fair. Number 15 is Carlos Hyde.

26-year-old Carlos Hyde last year in 13 games, had 217 carries for 98 yards and six touchdowns, has always flashed great potential both, you know, in the real NFL realm and the fantasy realm, yet to have a season in which he has finished in the top 15. Last year he was 15 on the dot in 13 games. So there's really nothing to- Finishing in the top 15 if you are 15? Yeah. Yet to have a season finishing in the top 16.

Oh, I mean 14. All right. Well, let's digress here. My hatred for Carlos Hyde is flowing through. Potentials there being drafted very high. 209. I'm surprised at that. Mike loves him. Yes. Certainly love Kyle Shanahan's influence there. However, there were all, every argument you could ever make for Carlos Hyde on the offensive scheme.

has been made before for Carlos Hyden the offensive scheme when he had Chip Kelly come in, extra plays, great opportunity, yada, yada, yada. Here's what I can say. He's 15th and 13 games. It's not bad. No, it's great. Yeah, he did perform well. Yesterday I spent a lot of time researching Kyle Shanahan's old systems, every single team that he has been the offensive coordinator for looking at how they finish with regard to their running game. The first four years that he was an offensive coordinator in the league,

are his lowest four rushing attempt years that he had as far as within the league itself. Lately, he's had years where, you know, in Washington, he was the third highest rushing attempt. And so then I broke it down and said, okay, what percentage is Kyle Shanahan's system giving carries to the number one running back, right? And it was about 53% last year to Devante Freeman.

63% to Devante Freeman the year before. And going back year after year after year, almost every number one back got 60 plus percent of the carries of their team, which is a great number. The only exceptions were years where they either didn't have any running backs, you know, where Roy Hulu was the best guy on your roster. Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa. Pump your brakes.

Hello. Probably breaks insulting my man. Or back with the Browns when you had Isaiah Crowell and Ben Tate was their starter for some of the year and Terrence West. It was weird. It was like this three-headed figuring out who was the leadback. So with that being said, I feel like I am confident that you're looking at a 250 carry Carlos Hyde.

If he can play 16 games. Which he's never done. And I don't think he can't. I mean, he is literally right now my highest risk rated running back in the draft kit. So shoulder ankle calf, hamstring, quadricep, foot stress fracture, shoulder concussion. Yuck. The story for Carlos Hyde, everything you said sounds so good if it wasn't Carlos Hyde. Like when you tell me he's going to get 60% of the carries, I say, ouch. That's the worry with that. And now.

The upside's there. Every player that has a high risk rating, it's built in that they have really high upside a lot of the time because the efficiency and the opportunity, those things have been there. He needs to stay healthy. DeMarco Murray was very similar in his first few years in the league. Complete injury risk. Year after year, it was this, it was that. He can't play a full 16. And then.