Bust & Value Picks + WR Myths, NFL News - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/26

Not just Daniel Jones, then you're now you're back to relying on a Jason Garrett offense. And not sure why he's employed in the NFL. I'm taking Chase Claypool ahead of Gallaudet. I'm taking Jerry Judy ahead of Gallaudet. I'm taking LaVisca Chonelt ahead of Gallaudet. Oh, baby. I know that there is upside. There is tremendous upside possible. But the percentage chance of it happening has been slowly reducing throughout the whole off.

season. He's my bus pick. Yeah, I've gone slowly from engineering the, the hype train for Kenny Gallaudet, moved back in the first class cabin, slowly, slowly down to economy, and I have jumped off here. Are you hiding in the bathroom? Parachuting. If you've never, I said, if I jump off this train, I know it's going to hurt, I'm going to inflict damage upon my body, and that still sounded better than supporting Kenegoladay through this season.

Okay, let's move on. Values. Speaking of Corey Davis. Yeah, I liked your transition. My value pick, it's Corey Davis, wide receiver, new wide receiver for the New York Jets currently sitting in about the 10th round, the wide receiver 46, although not based off of just this show enough to talk about Corey Davis, but his ADP is sure to rise over.

the next week or so as the vibes for him have been very good. He got the money for the New York Jets. Like we said with Kenyon Galday, though, that isn't necessarily everything. But you had to lure a wide receiver to go on to this team. That is a full rebuild. You have a brand new coaching staff in place. You have a brand new franchise quarterback. This team has been bad for a very long time.

And Corey Davis said, okay, I will take on this challenge. Last year, it was a solid year for him. The 90 targets, and that doesn't tell the whole story of Corey Davis. He was targeted on nearly 24% of his routes. That's 12th, highest among them. What did I say? Twice. Twice and twice. Twice as much. Is that a new number? Twice as much. It's like anywhere between two and 12 is twice. Thank you for clarifying. Let me throw this out here before you continue, Mike. Just the fact that.

Because this is the value segment on the show, I want to be clear what that means for those listening. So they interpret everything you're saying through that lens. Yes, thank you. You're backing up Corey Davis because, in part, he's being drafted in the middle of the 10th round. He's the wide receiver 46 off the board, and you believe that's too low relative to how he'll potentially produce this year. Yeah, I have him, you know, like I look at him as a wide receiver 3 and a solid wide receiver 3 with upside.

This new offense, they are trying to be the 49ers. They're trying to bring that Shanahan system over to the East Coast, and we've seen that be very productive for wide receivers. You know, Julio, the aforementioned in Atlanta, Pierre Garsohn back in Washington, if you remember those years, Andre Johnson in Houston. And I think that Corey Davis is a good player. It unfortunately took a very long time for him to realize that talent. Fortunately, he was able to.

staying on the field long enough to prove that he was a good wide receiver. He's a victim of being overdrafted in the NFL draft. He was a top 10 pick coming out of a small school. But the opportunity is there. We've seen Zach Wilson look excellent. I mean, he's looked at like the best rookie quarterback in prison to be fair to that. Goodness, what did I say now? In prison. I'm not sure if it was preseason or if he was jailed. What you need to do is just the whole word.

Just go for the whole work. I got to slow it down, apparently. You're just so hyped for Corey Davis. I am. Sounds like one of my ad reads over here. With finger taps? In the whales. Has looked great. But to be fair, Zach Wilson has only played against non-starters compared to a lot of the guys out there in the NFL. But Zach Wilson has looked sharp and he is over-targeting Cory Davis. Like,

an insane amount of volume, which is very telling for this rookie quarterback saying, this is my favorite guy. I know that Elijah Moore is a favorite rookie of the draft community, and Elijah Moore has a chance to make his mark on this offense. But Corey Davis is the number one guy. He's there. He's been there throughout training camp. So I think that where he is going, he is a sensational value for your wide receiver crew. The targeting that you've seen of Corey Davis.

per route run, per snap on the field, just has been outstanding. I mean, we are all three of us way, way higher than the average draft price right now of Corey Davis. This is a wide receiver who is the clear cut one for his NFL franchise. He's being drafted well outside of, you know, he's not even being drafted as a wide receiver three. So I really like, he is a perfect value. This isn't necessarily someone who's going to.

It's not a breakout going to be some top five guy, but you're getting an absolute weekly play, someone you could put in your lineup, and you're getting that in the double-digit rounds. And the built into that is the upside of what if Zach Wilson is actually that good? I mean, he was the number two overall pick. That's why I would glance at the NFL draft. That Elijah Moore, too. Yeah, I would look at him as well late in drafts because, you know, he's made a lot of headlines in preseason, as we call it.

I know you call it something else, but. Prison. Prison. I'm just being efficient over here. Not to be confused with prison. Oh, no. There's an e-sound. Right. But we need to move on, I'm afraid, to the Samuel portion of our values. Yeah, we've got a double Samuel burger here. I'll go first with Curtis. Curtis Samuel, wide receiver now for the Washington football team.

And you might not realize he's playing for the Washington football team because you have not seen him yet play for the Washington football team, but he is there. He's like a ninja. I know he's there because they brought him in with a three-year, $34 million contract. While wide receivers were not getting paid this offseason, Ron Rivera, who was from the team that drafted him and loves Curtis Samuel, went after him aggressively and brought him to this team because.

They didn't have anyone outside of scary Terry. Tara McLaurin's great, but they know they needed another wide receiver there, and they brought in Curtis Samuel to be that. And here's the deal. Curtis Samuel is a good wide receiver. He's pretty much always...

beaten everybody's, you know, if you look at whether it's just the route tree he runs and success rate, whether it's versus expectation on fantasy points, like he is very efficient, very effective, and a good wide receiver. In fact, from last season, once they started involving him in the offense, week seven on, which is two-thirds of the season, he was the wide receiver tin.

in fantasy last year for Carolina. If you had Curtis Samuel, he realized it. He helped people win fantasy championships. He had four weeks inside the top 12 and only two finishes outside the wide receiver three range from week seven on. He's a good wide receiver. He was brought into a team that is paying him a lot of money to make him the wide receiver too. And I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick can absolutely support.

Two wide receivers. We've talked about the tendencies of Scott Turner's offense. Even though it's a good defense, this is a team that wants to throw the ball. They're going to air it out quite a bit. And I love if you look, if you go back, if you missed this picture, it was so cute. The Washington football team got all their players together for training camp. And like it was a first day of school and they all held this, you know, chalkboard with their name on it. And they wrote, my friends are.

And on his, you know, you will look at most people. It's like, oh, my offensive line or, you know, my wide receivers. He wrote down Terry and Curtis. That's what Ryan wrote down as his friends. He is a guy who has always hyper-targeted two wide receivers. You saw it with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. You saw it with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. And I don't usually like buying an injury dip on players. But that's when they're really highly tout of guys. You know, they're dipping down to the fourth, fifth round.

Right now, the overall ADP has him at wide receiver 43 in the ninth round. But if you look at trend charts over the last month, he's in the 11th round. He's in the 12th round. He is completely off everybody's board. The expectation is that he's getting back to practice now. He might play in this last preseason game. And I just think that the opportunity, if you're saying what's the path for him?

Well, he's the clear wide receiver two to me. I mean, they brought him in. They paid him. He's going to get a lot of targets. He's got a good enough quarterback to support two fantasy relevant guys. He cost me nothing in a draft. I think he's going to be a pretty good value. And I expect him to have a good fantasy season this year. That's not like, that is my expectation, not my, I think this could happen. I think he's going to be valuable. I think my seat here in the podcast studio has been going.

down the entire episode to where I've gotten shorter and shorter. You do look lower. Yeah, and I think it might be breaking. Like it might be breaking where... Established vertical dominance here, Jason. Oh, man. You're taller than me. I do a bold predictions article every year, and oh boy, Jason just moved his seat to a very low place. Hey, guys. Look up here, Jay. So one of the things I had to reckon with this offseason is the fact that I actually...

I just don't believe that the Washington offense will deliver on the fantasy promise. So part of the pathway for Curtis Samuel is going to have to be, you know, I know you're rising on Logan Thomas lately, who may get a lot of targets. Tammy Brown has been impressive. You've got targets to McKissick and Gibson. So I am not as enthusiastic about the offense as a whole, which makes it harder for me to get on board. But, Mike, I am curious if you're on board with the argument that Jason made for Curtis Samuel is at value.

Yeah, 100% in the double-digit rounds, bringing him back with his former coach, knowing the offense. The transitioning of teams is very difficult in the NFL, learning a whole new playbook, learning all the new jargon, and Curtis Samuel's missing time. So normally I would, that would be a massive red flag and freak out. But it's, no, Curtis Samuel knows.

the offensive system. And I mean, Rivera has said as much as like, we're going to get Curtis Samuel healthy. We don't have to worry about him knowing the system. He already does. And I think that that has been a massive advantage for him where if he didn't know the system, Curtis probably would have forced his way back on the field sooner and risking the reaggravation instead of taking the full time to truly be fully healed up for the season. Well, it's a wonderful transitional.

point to bring up reaggravation because that is just the kind of the calling card of my value here in the draft. A player that was on the cusp of being a my guy last year before a preseason injury and a player that I do see as a value. I know Jason and I disagree here, but seventh round, late seventh round, the second Samuel in this segment, unrelated. Debo Samuel, wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers. One of the things I brought up early in the off season is that

The math bears out the reality that, you know, Debo Samuel, when he plays, more than 70% of snaps, so when he plays a full game, he has been a double-digit fantasy player in 11 of the last 13 games. So he comes in, like, on our player profiles. Like targets? A double-digit fantasy player in terms of, yeah, and fantasy points. Oh, oh, okay. Double-digit fantasy points in 11 of 13, which is 85% of the time. Our own player profiler rates him a A in terms of his consistency.

which is essentially the percentage of time that a player has a usable benchmark in their position over the last 16 games. Which A is, that's near the top. A is a good grade. Last year, you know, a lot of appropriate hype for a great player in Brandon Ayuk. Brandon Ayuk's a player I targeted in Dynasty this past week, in trade offers. Brandon Ayuk, none of what I'm saying about DBL Samuel is at the expense of Brandon Ayuk.

I just want to remind people who Debo Samuel is. Last year, Jerry Rice came out. Oh, my gosh, I hope Brandon Ayuk breaks my rookie receiving record. He didn't. And he didn't break Debo's. Debo had a better rookie season yardage wise than Brandon Ayuk did. And I want to bring people back to that time. And remember, he also had a faster 40 time than Brandon Ayuk. These guys were 11 picks apart in terms of their draft capital in the draft. Debo is a very high second rounder. Ayuk was a late first rounder.

They are both really, really good players. And last year, unfortunately, both guys dealt with three separate injuries. Iuk had core muscle surgery in the offseason. He sprained his hamstring and he had a high ankle sprain. Debo had the really bad Jones fracture, which Jason has been, you know, he brought up last off season, re-injury on that as a high risk, and then he had the same hamstring injury twice. Heard his hamstring, missed a bunch of games, came back, heard it again on the first play, and it was done.