Bust & Value Picks + WR Myths, NFL News - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/26

that's not going to pay off drafting him at the wide receiver 14, a borderline wide receiver 1. So where do those targets come from? Yes, Johnny Smith is gone, and he saw a very decent target share. But can you really project that in this offense where AJ Brown saw 23% of the targets that Julio's going to jump back up to that 30% which he's used to? Maybe they turn into the Vikings, right? And we just have two targets. Last year,

Thielen ended up at 22% and Jefferson at 26% of the targets. It took 14 touchdowns for Adam Thielen to jump inside the top 10. Well, Julio's known for touchdowns, right? And that's part of the problem. But for Adam Thielen, over the last 20 years, 25 wide receivers have hit the 14 touchdown mark and only three of them finished outside of the top six. So what I'm saying is the fact that Adam Thielen finished where he did on 14 touchdowns based off of his volume,

is absolutely egregious. And so that's, and you brought me to my next point, playing the maybe game. Maybe Julio Jones is the number one wide receiver on this team over A.J. Brown. That's not likely to me. Maybe Julio Jones becomes a prolific touchdown score. That's not likely to me for a player who is turning 33 this year and we've seen 10 seasons of data that that's just not part of his game.

His draft price to me is just too high. The wide receiver 14 is being drafted before Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Robert Woods, all players that I have projected above Julio Jones. He missed the majority of last year with a hamstring injury, and now he's already missing time in training camp with an undisclosed leg injury. Like, he is just so risky to me being drafted at the place where he is. I've, like, this was.

You haven't thought about drafts. I haven't thought about him as a bust either. And so we had to find our own personal bust. And I looked at where I have Julio Jones ranked compared to his ADP. And then I'm like, I have never drafted Julio Jones a single time in any of the mock drafts that I have done. So this comes down to ADP. It's not that I think that Julio Jones is now completely washed. I think he's a great player. And I don't think he's going to fall in his face for fantasy football.

I just can't stomach the wide receiver 1480P on him. I have him just outside of my top 20. That's not bad. But for a player being drafted, basically as a wide receiver 1, I got to be OUT. Well, there's a lot of reasons and worries and variables for how it could go wrong, whether it's age, injury, changing teams. Right. Those are.

Those are big variables. And obviously changing teams, Stefan Diggs did it last year and it was great, but he became the alpha. And that's unlikely to happen. What really surprised me, I looked at my numbers. I've got Julio as wide receiver 18. So good, but again, behind that wide receiver 14 draft price. And that is with a 24% market share, which I think is he could hit that. He could hit that. But seeing that Corey Davis had the 20% market share last year, 24 is probably.

I think, I mean, I have him hitting that, but I don't think he's going north of that. I think that's kind of, you're standing out. That's a big problem. You're statting him out near his peak, and that gets him in my rankings to wide receiver 18. So I think I like, I think I like this call. And let's look at 20% targets here in the offense that equated to the 31st wide receiver in fantasy football for Corey Davis. So I think there's two discussions. There's one of like, who gets it the most?

Maybe he hurts Anthony or AJ Brown a lot, but then does getting it the most matter if it's really an even distribution in an offense that doesn't throw it as much. And the question you have to ask when you're drafting is not that historically has Julio Jones been a better player than Corey Davis, but. Because duh. Yeah, of course. But is this transitioning Julio Jones to the new offense to a lower volume, will he really be that much a better fit than Corey Davis was during that.

That great year of last year. Probably. But still not good enough, but still probably. Yeah, you ask the question of how much better. And so, again, don't hate me. I'm just the messenger. I don't think there's a lot of opinions. I don't think you're going to get the hate there. Julio is, is.

beloved on a career arc but I don't know if people are really banging the drum for wide receiver 14 I mean that is surprising to me that he's the wide receiver 14 but I guess huge name recognition is going to do well and you guys I mean have both said you love Ryan Tannahill so like there's a lot of adoration for the offense and so the pieces are going to get you know hype on the old draft board yeah I mean Julio obviously

helps Ryan Daniel quite a bit. All right, I'll go next here. This is one I've been looking forward to. He's been in this doc for a long, long time. Mike was so. It's a much different approach. It's so different. Mike is so resistant. He's like, guys, don't hate me. I know what I have to do, but I don't know if the straight to do it. And then Jason just says,

I can't wait. I can't wait because. Tears his shirt off with Never Chase tattoo to cross it. I feel like people are taking crazy pills with Jamar Chase. Rookie wide receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals, top five NFL draft pick, unstoppable generational talent and wide receiver, the best we've seen since Odell Beckham and all the other superlatives that you throw up. I like that voice. That's a fun one. Thank you. Here's a thing with Jamar Chase.

First of all, maybe this is confirmation bias. I was never the highest. I was not here on the pre-draft wide receiver scouting show. You guys made it out that I hated Jamar Chase on that episode relative to the love he gets back. No, we definitely don't think that anymore. So wait. So you're laying that out, but this is confirmation.

for us that you in fact hate Jemar Chase as you jumped on and proclaimed how happy you are to say that he's a bus. I hate drafting Jemar Chase in 2021 at where he's going. I think it is outstandingly ridiculous. So Kyle, our editor, put this blurb in that I wrote for that show. It says, I don't love Jemar Chase.

He's good. His production was good, but I think he's overhyped and isn't a great separator. He's not bad. He's just not some generational talent to me. And as many people make him out to be a perfect process, he might not have even been, he might have been the third best wide receiver on his home college team, to be honest, ducks and runs away. That was my ducking being scared. I'm not scared anymore because what he has to do this season.

To be worth being drafted in the fifth round, I think lately he's dropped into the very top of the sixth round, but we've seen him plenty of times in the fifth, is insane. So far, the reports are bad at camp. People have been talking about how not only bad for him, but bad for Burrow. You know, we've talked a lot about you ignore a lot of the fluff pieces, but you pay attention to the negative news. People aren't.

you know, trying to be negative about these players. There's been a lot of negativity about Burrow and Chase so far in camp, not really being what they, you know, hype them up to be. Last week, we talked about what happens when a team has three wide receivers drafted in the top 60 ADP, and only once out of 14 times did that trio return value. And only one had...

two inside the top 36. So this is not a good outlook. He's not coming into a position. What's happening is Justin Jefferson is happening. Justin Jefferson last year was unfathomably great. He won people leagues. He was a rookie that exploded under the scene. He was a teammate. And he wasn't as good as Jamar Chase, right? He was the number two for that team. That's the narrative. Well, that's accurate.

That is not accurate. The production is, I'm saying he was the number two on the team. Production-wise, that is accurate. If you talk yards, yes. If you talk targets, receptions, no. So I view him as the higher yardage guy, but the number one target was Jefferson. Fair to say the NFL saw him as a greater talent than Justin Jefferson based on draft capital. Certainly fair to say the Bengals did, yes. He was, he was, it wasn't just the Bengals.

Sure, yes. It is fair to say, I mean, he had a younger breakout age. His athletic profile is better. There are certainly reasons to say that he is the better prospect. I will agree with that. The thing is, is Justin Jefferson went to a team that had an aging Adam Thielen, and that was it. He's, you know, Chase is coming to a team that has a year two T. Higgins 100 target rookie season.

a guaranteed 100 plus target wide receiver in Tyler Boyd. And I just don't think that this is worthy of where he's going in the draft pick. And as a reminder, here's the last five years. The number one rookie drafted over the last five years. 2016, it was Sterling Shepard in the eighth round. 2017, Corey Davis, in the 10th round. 2018, Calvin Ridley, again in the 10th round. 2019, D.K. Metcalfe in the 11th round. CD Lamb last year climbed up to the eighth round.

And now Jamar Chase has been in the fifth or sixth round. That's pretty interesting. And none of them returned value outside of Calvin Ridley. Like Calvin Ridley was a very good rookie. C.D. Lamb was okay last year. But Calvin was the only one who actually ended up as the wide receiver one. So when you look at the team, the draft cost, the fact that he's a rookie, the other wide receivers available, I just can't imagine drafting Jamar Chase in the fifth or sixth round.

Certainly don't have to sell me on it. Talked about it last week. I was persuaded by just the good vibes. We're having a good vibes, bad vibe show. It's not great right now. I looked at the schedule. There's eight games that I wouldn't know who. I wouldn't feel confident starting a pass catcher on Cincinnati in eight games on their schedule right now where it's difficult to make the decision between it's Chase, it's Higgins, it's Boyd, it's a problem.

predicting that value. I mean, last year, the year that T. Higgins had, the year that Tyler Boyd had, they combined for 11 start-worthy games, you know, so out of 16. So it was a problem deciding last year which guy to start and you had another guy to the mix and Joe Burroughs injury. I'm with you, Jay. The division is brutal. And just because of projections in ADP, I would be out on Jamar Chase. I have him, you know,

Pretty close to the ADP in my rankings. But, I mean, beating the dead horse of talking about Tyler Lockett nonstop. But Tyler Lockett's going right around him. So Chase likely won't be on my teams. All right. I won't linger too long on my bus pick, but I know it's a consensus one here. The smooth routes of Kenny Gulliday in New York. Is there?

I mean, I guess the violin can be pretty brutal, but, like, the saxophone could be the most beautiful tone and beautiful instrument and also be, like, the worst. I do actually have some saxophone music that was being played at practice. And, uh... It's the same one. Like, you can't sound that bad on a piano, on a guitar. This is just, when you talk about...

insurmountable odds for a wide receiver that I know is very talented. Just stare down Kenny Galladay. It is a problem. You don't want to take a whiff of the off-season odor around the New York Giants right now, whether it's the Joe Judge High T approach, the fights. Daniel Jones is Daniel Jonzing regularly. I mean, practice yesterday, you don't, I mean, he looked bad. Mack Jones dominated this defense.

This is not a good situation. They were insanely inefficient. Even Kenny Gallaudet, his one big season, was highly efficient. It was a lot of touchdowns on only 116 targets. Yeah, he got the bag. But guess what? He injured his hamstring August 3rd. He hasn't returned to practice.

He hasn't played in a preseason game. He wasn't making any headlines in practice. He was dropping the football. This is not great. And you just can't do it right now. And guess what? He's going ahead of Jamar Chase in draft. So I am steering clear of Ghaladay in this offense. The beat riders have said Sterling Shepard looks great. And relying on a pass catcher in New York means you're relying on Daniel Jones, something that I promised my family I'd never do.