Fantasy Busts & Values for 2022 + PP...R Leagues - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/25

On today's episode, yes, the news will be here, but we are talking about our values. We are talking about our individual bus players that we are a little bit nervous to take at their current ADP and some best ball breakdown. Make sure you subscribe to this channel. Leave us a comment. Let us know who your value players are in this year's fantasy football draft and enjoy the video. Listen up, everybody. Your fantasy football drafts are coming. It's time to show your league what puny and pathetic trash bags they truly are. The Ultimate Draft Kit from the Fantasy Footballers is the easiest way to annihilate them. Tier rankings, full projections, sleepers, breakouts, it's got it all. Go to Ultimate DraftKit.com and secure yours immediately. I said do it now. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore.

and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome, man. I think it's football time. Is it? Is that why you were laughing? I got it caught a little bit off guard. It's fine. I don't really want it. I don't want it until it counts, Mike. Oh, man. Andy doesn't want Packers, Chiefs, 49ers, Texans. Wait, wait, wait, 49ers? Yes. Okay, it's football. It's supposed to see Trey Lance, right? That's why it's football time. Okay. That's what makes it football time for Mike. Welcome into the fantasy footballers podcast. Wait, wait, wait. Is Romeo Dobbs playing tonight? Oh, don't he. I believe he is. Oh, it's football time. His average opposition just rose a full round. Thanks to you mentioning his name. It's preseason time. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Is Isaiah Pacheco playing tonight? Probably. Yeah, all right. Let's go. It's football time. All right. We're back. We're back.

It's cut down time for a lot of these teams. Sorry. I got to make it sad. Sorry. No, I was just talking about Kenyon Drake. You no longer have a job. Yeah. We have bust picks on today's show. See, I've got to bring it down to the negative. There we go. Picking bust. We have value picks on today's show. We have baseball breakdown, NFL news to cover, and some pretty big news to cover. A few reminders at the top. If you're drafting in the next couple of weeks, avail yourself of the Ultimate Draft Kit. You can find that. Thank you, Mike, at Ultimate DraftKit.com. And then the Megalibul tournament is now open. It's the largest fantasy football league, all of our listeners, in different 12-person leagues heading to one singular megalable champion. Check that out at megalobole.com. News and notes from around the league.

Well, the big news breaking yesterday and today, the Cowboys, left tackle Tyrone Smith. It's not looking good. Hamstring tore, came off the bone, which made it, what, an evulsion fracture of the knee. Yuck. He has to have surgery. That's a lot of big words that I don't know. Yeah, this is bad. He's out indefinitely. Another way to put that is for the relevant season. He's not going to be playing anytime. before December if a miracle happens. So you have one of the best tackles in all of pro football who statistically it makes a massive difference on how the Cowboys offense functions. The pressure percentage goes up 5% when he's not on the field.

The sack percentage nearly doubles. The yards per attempt for the running back position, which is maybe the biggest point here, it goes from five a carry to four a carry, just losing Tyrone Smith. Yeah, and that's, you know, that's talking about someone that you can blame it on the injury or whatever, but it wasn't like Zeke was very efficient last year. So if you have now a worse offensive line, this is an offensive line that, you know, used to be as good as it gets. That was the heart and soul of this team. We can't look at it that way anymore. I mean, this is almost now without Smith, this is a weakness on this roster. Well, they'll have a Smith in his place. Okay, that's true. That's true. I believe it's Tyler Smith that will be filling in. He's got most of the same letters. We should be all right here. Maybe the offensive, or I mean, the defensive players will just think it's the same Smith. Yeah. I mean, we, we. Probably not. I don't think we've gotten, you know, because this is fresh like this, this started breaking last night. I don't think we've got an update of what the.

what their plan is for who's going to go where. You know, because, like, looking at our lads, Tyler Smith was playing guard or were slotted in for them on the depth chart. First round rookie. Yeah, who's going to go where? That is TBD. But it was, it was rumored. This sucks. Yeah, it was a lot. Michael Gallup, though, will avoid the reserve PUP list. Probably not ready for week one, but also not going to miss four games. Right. That's it. So you would assume if they're not putting him on the PUP, you will see him before week five. Otherwise they should have put him on the reserve. Which has happened. I say we've made those assumptions before. Is Michael Gallup being ignored for fantasy players? It's hard because we didn't know with the ACL because these ACL injuries are all over the place. And Michael Gallops.

was about as late as it can get. I mean, it was very end of the season. And so the fact that he's even close to ready is just, it's shocking where you, Robert Woods was kind of in the middle of the season. Seems like he's going to be back. Then you have other players who are still not even in full, or they're not fully participating in practice. So over, if he's healthy, then yeah, he would be overlooked because he, he just got the contract. He profiles to be the number two pass catcher for, DAC in this offense. But again, the ACL injuries are very scary. Is the real world where Michael Gallup is more valuable than C.D. Lamb in a Dynasty League? No. No, not in a Dynasty League. No, not at all. I don't think that exists. C.D. Lamb is so young is a better talent. I mean, the world exists like, oh, C.D. Lamb has a career-ending injury, but outside of something like that, I can't imagine Gallup being more valuable in Dynasty.

Okay, yeah, he's 23. Gallup is 26. It's funny because I think at least so far through their careers, Gallup has made more impressive place to me. Cadarius, Tony didn't participate in team drills on Wednesday, believed to be a hamstring injury. This goes along with the off-season knee scope. He also goes along with last season when, you know, when he was on the field, he was electric. He looked like he had. you know, very unique, quick twitch skill set that we don't see very often, right? Like when an NFL player looks significantly better than other NFL players at the same position doing certain things, that is the elite of the elite. And yet we may not get to enjoy watching that at any point. Let me read you a couple things. This is from- Please do. From Cadarius Tony's profile in the fantasy footballers, week six, probable.

leg, seven, out, ankle. Uh, you got week 12 out quad. You have week, uh, 14 out oblique. You have week, uh, 15 out. Well, that was COVID, uh, week 17 out shoulder. Now we're at an hamstring and knee scope. This is, it's, it's a full skeleton. It's, it's like head, shoulders, knees and toes. Yeah. Nees and toes. We are. Yeah, because you doubled up. Absolutely. It's really tough to trust him. His, you know, his targets per route run are incredible. His athleticism on the field looked great. He was one of my favorite guys this offseason to target for where he was going. But how can you trust a player that has had so much trouble being able to play football? Can't trust. Can't trust, but will still be the highest drafted Giants wide receiver.

You're injury prone until you're not. You know, it's kind of the way we talk about it on this show of guys starting their career, can't stay on the field, and then they just go a stretch of five years and missing one game a year or so. He has the skills, but his body just, it doesn't seem to like professional football. And a lot of those are soft tissue issues. You know, the shoulders like, okay, you know, that could be a freak occurrence, you know, like when Keenan lacerated his. spleen. Kidney. Yes. Whereas he's had the quad, the hamstring, the oblique, a lot of soft tissue issues. The report six days ago was that he was moving well at practice, but won't play in the preseason game. So we'll see. We'll see if he's okay by week one. At this point, you're in, you know, you're in free, freeville of your draft. You're in the double digits. Are you going

Tony, or are you taking Wondale Roberts and the rookie? I'm probably taking Tony. Okay, still? Yeah. Jay? Yeah, I'll go with Tony. Okay. It is close. What about you? Is it Tony, Tony, Tony? I lean Wondale at this point. I think Wondale will have a season a lot like Rondale, probably. That's not good. Maybe. But he has the potential if there are injuries to pile up receptions. It's just, you know. I mean, I'll go with the arguments you had laid out. Who's taller, Wondale or Rondale? That's a good question. I'm probably about the same. Because Wondale's not a big guy. I think Wondale's, for memory, 58 and Rondale's 5.7. Okay. Do I need to hit the panic alarm on there on Darren Waller? 511. Who's 5. Neither one of those guys are 5. I've seen Jason is spot on 58 and 5.7. Okay. Yes, you need to hit the panic alarm here.

Josh McDaniels does not feel comfortable making a prediction on Darren Waller's status for week one. He has practiced one time since the end of July for the Las Vegas Raiders. There are rumors that maybe it's contract related. Thoughts? I think those are called hopes. That's juicy. You hope it is contract related because. He missed a bunch of time. He came back and then we thought, oh, great, he's back so we can have a little bit more confidence drafting him. And then he's missing again with the hamstring issue. If this is the same, if it's a reoccurrence of the same injury, that is a big deal after rest. Those are the things that, you know, last year in the tips and tricks episode are the things to remember. We wrote down all the guys who missed the vast majority of camp last year and they were basically universal busts.

This guy has not participated in anything but like two days of the team drills this entire offseason program. So I personally, I mean, I wasn't drafting him really. I don't like most of the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh round tight ends from a game theory strategy point of view. But he is definitely not being drafted by me now. Yeah, I was okay with him, but with all of this. just breaking in such a negative fashion for the draft. I have moved him down and, like, he's, he's behind Dalton Schultz and my projections. You know what it does do, though, and it's worth bringing up is it, it moves, it moves. Yes, yes, Hunter Renfro up because my worry here was, well, Hunter Renfro dominated last year when he was the only guy. Now you bring in Devante Adams, you still have Waller, but if Waller is struggling to get on the field and,

Renfro's a two. He's hard to cover, especially if you're trying to deal with Devante Adams over there? Did you guys see the clip? Yeah, it's Derwin James. It was. He was on the pivot podcast with Ryan Clark, and Ryan Clark was basically asking him, you know, some questions about the hardest players to cover. And it was like the most nonchalant concession that Hunter Renfro is like in that group. He started with Tyreek. He's like Tyreek, Hunter Renfro. And then the host is like, Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Back up. Hunter and Renfro? He's like the encyclopedia salesman. Yeah. And then James, like, oh, yeah. He's different. He's really good. Yeah, he says he's different. Jaylon Waddle has missed most of the last two weeks with an undisclosed injury. Yikes. More of a concern for me is that it's a new system with Mike McDaniel. And they're, you know, he's missing valuable time to build a rapport and to learn that system when Tyree Kill is out there.

balling out every single day. He, I believe somebody saw him on the side of practice with a wrap on his leg. Yep. So we're waiting to hear of Jalen Waddle will be good to go for week one. Another player we're keeping our eyes on. Yeah, it's certainly, this is not everything for Jalen Wadle. Great player, but it does move the draft confidence. Tyree Kill gets bumped up slightly and Waddle gets moved down a little bit. Now, we're sure this wasn't a cell phone in his sock. I mean, yeah, unless it's like an old Zach Morris sized phone. You're going to start seeing all NFL players keeping their cell phones in their sock to throw off the opposing team on who's injured. All right, let's move on to the bus. Bus. All right, Mike, why don't you kick it off with one that I just don't like? That's fine.

And it is David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears. Currently the running back 18 going in the back of the third round on Sleeper, aka your home league type of ADP. And this is not a, I'm saying David Montgomery, oh, he's a bus because he's a bad player. Not at all. This is all about playing the game of fantasy football and where he is being drafted. We have a lot of unknowns for him. We have a new coaching regime in Chicago. They did not draft David Montgomery. They have not extended David Montgomery to this point. You have the new OST, Luke Getsey, he's calling plays for the first time, and he's coming down from Green Bay, which was a two running back system. So will we see more of the running back by committee approach? That's a huge unknown. A lot of David Montgomery's fantasy value, on top of him being good and being able to take...

Advantage of his opportunity is the opportunity was so massive for him under head coach Matt Nagy. What we know about Khalil Herbert, though, he was drafted late, but he did see an opportunity last year when David Montgomery missed a couple games. And in those games, he averaged 22 touches per game for the month stretch where Montgomery went out and had two running back one performances against Green Bay and Tampa Bay. And if you do remember, Back when he played against Tampa Bay, this was like a, well, he feels like the free square. Do you pick up Khalil Herbert and play him? Because you know he's going to get a bunch of volume. But he's playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who I don't want my really good running backs playing against because they were so dominant at shutting down fantasy running backs. And Khalil Herbert had himself a day. The offensive line currently ranked 31st by Pro Football Focus.

They were bottom five and points scored last year. They seem to be trusting the process on their offensive side of the football, really not going after it. I mean, like the wide receiver additions have been very lackluster. They drafted Valis Jones, who I think is like a 25-year-old rookie where the odds are up against him. And then on top of that, you now have the full Justin Field situation where we know that a rushing quarterback. It can take production away from basically everybody else on the field because every time Justin Fields runs the ball, there's a down. There's an opportunity that one of the skill players did not get. So I am concerned about that running back 18 position. I think he can still finish in the 20s, which is not a catastrophic move. But in the third round, when you are bypassing some of the top tier wide receivers who are available to you,

I think it's a bad draft move. You got the new coaching staff. He's a dead zone running back, which we know from years and years of fantasy football. The running backs in the dead zone are there for a reason because they just, you get the good running backs are taken. And then because of the necessity of the position, running backs who shouldn't be there just get pushed, they get pulled up. into the top of the draft compared to wide receivers. So people are afraid of not having a running back. Exactly. They look and they take the next best running back available over a known great wide receiver. So I have those are my concerns that David Montgomery just won't return his value on the draft. Jason, I'm curious your thoughts on him. Once he came back after the injury last year, almost on pace for 400 touches, 68 receptions. The pass catching is where I feel like his baseline.

will be safe. Do you agree with the thought that he might, you know, be below where he was the past couple of years? Yes, I agree that it could happen because there's a new coaching staff and there is no, you know, you talk about, oh, he came back last year and was on pace for 400. Well, that was with a completely different coaching staff, a different, you know, offensive coordinator and play caller, everything. So we have no idea how they will utilize this, whether there will be a chance it can be better? A committee. Because Matt Nagy has not exactly been revered. Sure, absolutely. There's a chance it can be better. The way that I view it is, you know, you talk about the range of outcomes. It could be far worse. It could be a little better. But I think probability-wise, what's going to happen is you've got a very good player in David Montgomery, who will be decent for fantasy, but I think he will be slightly...

Just a little bit worse because he'll see it a little bit more first and second down work. I do think he's pretty much locked in as the passing downs guy. He's a great past protector and Khalil Herbert. That's probably his biggest weakness. All right. I'm going to go with Josh Jacobs running back for the Las Vegas Rades. Yeah. And the vibes are bad right now for Josh Jacobs. This is a player that has had production through volume over the past few years, especially. in a system where John Gruden was willing to just hand the ball off in each and every situation possible, especially around the goal line. They didn't have a Devante Adams weapon around the goal line in years past. And look, they didn't commit to Josh Jacobs. They did not pick up his fifth year option. We have a decent history of first-round running backs who didn't have their fifth-year option picked up.

and how they performed in their fourth year, which is what it is for Josh Jacobs, it hasn't been pretty. You have Leonard Fournett and Sony Michelle and Rashad Penny, where these were not prolific outputs. That's not a huge sample size, but it's also indicative. Look, if the team wanted to make him the future, then I think they would have negotiated that contract. You bring in Brandon Bolden, Amir Abdullah, you have a history of RBBC with Josh McDaniels and the New England system. And you have really what I think the biggest point here is you have the ability to go elsewhere with Adams, with Renfro, with Waller, with Abdullah, who, you know, Brandon Bolden, more trusted in past protection. I don't know if this team is really willing to say Josh Jacobs, you're our guy, as opposed to you're a guy in this backfield. So I have my concerns, early fifth round pick right now.

I know Judge Giamatti himself is a pretty big Josh Jacobs supporter this year. But I also didn't mention Zemir White, you know, another fourth round draft pick that they brought in a big bruising back that basically I think if this team thinks it can get what Josh Jacobs has been giving them out of other players, they'll do it and move on from Josh Jacobs at the end of the year. I completely agree with that last sentence, and I do expect them to move on, or they would have picked up his option. I don't think they will resign him. But he's on the roster now, and when they are needing to score and keep up in this division, he's their best running back. He is a good running back. I see it kind of similar a little bit to David Montgomery in the sense that these are quality players who aren't assured of a big volume going in this year with new coaching staffs.

But I would at least say that Josh Jacobs is a little bit cheaper. And I view the Raiders offense. We talked about this on the party room last night. I view the Raiders offense as being better, more improved. They're probably going to score more points regardless of whether the Raiders win or lose more games going forward. So there is maybe an opportunity for more scoring. But obviously the transactions they've made bringing in so many other running backs and not picking up his fifth year option is not. It doesn't bode well for Josh Jacobs. Some wild stats here for these backups. Like, you know, quote backups for the Raiders. Andy, did you, because I was trying to pull up this Amir Abdulestat, did you mention that Brandon Bolden actually led all running backs in fantasy points on third down? No, I didn't even realize that was true. That's an absolutely absurd stat. And then he pursued it. Like he leaves New England and then he just goes and signs the guy he used to do that.

And then after Amir Abdullah was traded over to, or he went over to the Carolina Panthers. Now, I mean, they needed running back help. As you recall, their superstar, Christian McCaffrey lost time. But once he got on the field, he was averaging five targets a game. Amir Abdullah finished the season with just as many targets as Jonathan Taylor, just as many targets as Giovante Williams. One more target than Antonio Gibson. Like Amir Abdullah was so involved in the passing game and you just, we don't realize it because that's kind of all he did for them. But like he was being used like that because he has those chops. Yeah. You know, you have McDaniels who basically said, yeah, I want Bolden, Abdullah, and Zemir White. Yes. And we're going to fill out this room. I would.

Bet my life that David Montgomery has more targets and receptions than Josh Jacobs does this year. That's my biggest concern about drop off. You don't have a problem with Andy betting his life, Mike? No, I don't. Because it's not my life. Okay. He didn't bet mine. 50%. Yeah. That's a pretty strong statement. Quick break and back with Jason's bust. All right, Jason, you chose the running back position as well. Tell us why Jonathan Taylor's your bust. Well, it is funny. We pick these all independently, but you can see that there's a theme here. All three of these running backs we've picked as bust options this year are dead zone running backs. The running backs that go between rounds three through seven. We did a study last year on those to kind of see how do they do. And more than two thirds of the running backs drafted in rounds three for seven.

hurt your squad. They either don't meet their PPG expectation or they or they full on bust. That was a strange pause there. Did you not hear yourself? How long do you think that pause was? How long do you believe that that was? You don't want to rewind that. No, no, no. You said peepee. Rewinding in my mind. I hear it now. Yeah, you said peepee. Then you did the alphabet in your head and got to G later. I mean, that was. Yeah. Yeah, you know, they don't meet their, they don't meet their P.P. Gee, that's what you said. Yeah. That's what I, yeah, and I stand by it. Oh my gosh. Anyways, I do think what a spot to just brain fart. That's how I'm going to start saying P.P. R leads. Oh, boy. Yeah. So if you play. Thank you, Jason. In P.P.

are leagues. Maybe Camacres would be more or less valuable. But here's the reason why. So Cam Acres 23 years old. exceptional talent coming out of college. All of us loved him, loved his tape. And now he's on the Los Angeles Rams with Sean McVeigh. There's a lot of reasons that he is pushed up higher than these other two running backs in ADP. He's currently the running back 17 going in the back of the third round because there's a lot of excitement that if he is the guy, right, like Sean McVeigh has always used that one back system. You had Todd Gurley have so much value for years. And so you hope that.

Cam Acres is over this devastating Achilles injury, and he is ready to go as the dude. And if that happens, he is a screaming deal at the back of the third round. However, there are a couple things really working against him. First and foremost, this injury is one where we still do not have a successful single sample of a running back coming back off of this injury to... Good fantasy success. Now, after a couple years from the injury, we've had Deonta Foreman still play ball. Marlon Mack is playing football, but he's running behind fourth round, you know, rookie running match right now. Yeah, you're not targeting like that kind of output. Exactly. And so you saw him come back super early from the injury last year, which was impressive. But then he sucked. He was like two and a half yards per carry. Not as impressive. Not as impressive. Three point three yards per touch. So very inefficient.

You do have the issue. You know, you hear a lot of like, oh, he wasn't efficient, but he still kept getting the rock in the playoffs. They trust him. But it's like, well, yeah, Darrell Henderson wasn't there. So that's the other guy they trust. McVeigh literally quoted a couple weeks ago of saying, I look at it as if we have two starting backs. And Sarah Bishop, the ESPN Rams reporter, said, I don't think it's a given the acres will start the season as the Rams true RB1. Acres and Henderson are both going to split this backfield. If Acres is not recovered from a devastating injury and he's not the full-time dude, he's not paying off at the running back 17 draft costs. I have him currently as the running back 26. I love the talent. I hope he breaks out. I don't think it's going to happen. And if you look at, like there's a couple running backs I prefer that are going later than him like Travis Ct and Breece Hall. But really in this range.