Fantasy Busts & Values for 2022 + PP...R Leagues - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/25

Michael Pittman, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Cortland Sutton, these guys are, these guys are exciting, high probability hits in the same range going after him. I think it's too big a risk for me at that draft cost to go in on an early Achilles running back injury. Well, and where's Darrell Henderson being drafted? Oh, he's nowhere? Yeah, double digits. So, I mean, that shows you that there's a misunderstanding of what's going to happen in that backfield. Beyond the reporters that you mentioned, I've heard from several that are positive that the philosophy in that backfield has changed and that they're 100% committed to both players. And Dary Henderson's been very effective in limited amounts of work without injuries. So I think they want to keep the tread off of both the tires. How many tires do two guys have? I mean, that's like, is that four tires total?

Two tires per person? Do you put a tire on like the hands? I think you've got to rotate the, oh, because then it'd be four per? Well, I don't think you get hand tires. I don't think that's right, because we're, we walk up right. We're bipedal. Yeah. Byweedle. So we're four, four total tires. And you rotate them to keep the tread wearing evenly. Do they change? They do rotate, yeah. But I'm saying like, does, does Henry? No, they don't swap with each other. They rotate them between left and right foot. Yeah, Henderson's got, he's rolling on dubs. He's got 20s. So I don't think Cammy can, uh, can, uh, can, uh, put those on. But the one thing I will say, bringing up kind of the average draft price. I, I looked at on sleeper, Henderson's going in the 11th round. If you do like a little mental exercise and say, well, both these guys have dealt with injuries. They're, they're short career so far.

So they both have injury risk. But if Henderson was gone and he was out of the way, great opportunity for Cam Acres, but you're not sure he's back over the Achilles injury. If the opposite happens and Cam Acres goes down and there's great opportunity for Henderson, I'm almost more confident that Henderson would be better. as the solo back than I would be if Cam was there. And one of these guys is being drafted in the 11th round. Yeah, it's something to pay attention to because you can grab a Sutton and then get Henderson later as a dart throw. There are some backfields like that. All right. Into the values. Values. So, I mean, it's right in the name. These are players that represent a spectacular draft day value. You're not necessarily supposed to be reaching for these players, but...

These are guys that have a potential to drop to where they shouldn't be dropping and could be a steal for your fantasy team. Mike, I love yours. I'm going, oh, that's good because you did not like the bus. Well, I have a contractual obligation, David Montgomery. You're a big Monty guy. I defend him. That's fair. But he's a full Monty guy. I'm a full Monty. I do go full Monty. Yeah. But Mike, I'm all in. Especially in PP. Oh, there it is. There it is. My value pick is Damian Pierce rookie running back from the Houston Texans on Sleeper going in the back of the ninth as the running back 39. And by all accounts from the preseason, it looks like Damian Pierce is the starting running back for this team. I get it. It's the Houston Texans. Gross. They're not going to be great. But you have to factor in like.

Maybe the Houston Texans, they can be slightly better. Crazy stuff happens in the NFL every single year. And if they're just a little bit better than you expect and you have their starting running back in the ninth round, that is a tremendous value. The draft capital on Damien Pierce wasn't fantastic. But again, this was an interesting year in the draft for these running backs of players that on film and even like statistically, their profiles were interesting, but they just. They're dropping in the NFL draft. He didn't have a lot of production. Yeah, he doesn't have the production profile to back it up. But in Florida, I mean, Florida, they use their players strange. Yeah, it's super muggy, very difficult to get production. But like Cadarious Tony, a really strange, like not a great production profile, but did enough for NFL teams that he was a first round draft pick. Currently, the competition on the Houston Texans.

The aforementioned Marlon Mack recovering from the Achilles injury from a year ago. And then sexy Rex Berkitt. Love Rex Burkett. But at this point of his career, less sexy. Five years ago. Yeah, I mean, he's like, he's a fun guy to root for him. He's just Rexie now. Yeah, he's just, yeah, he is. Dad Bond, Rexy. Which could be, hey, it could be sexy. I would like that dad by. Yeah. But watching Damien Pierce, actually just watching the tape of him in Florida. He's has juicy. He's twitchy. And then we saw him in the preseason making some really strong moves, like making NFL defenders look silly, making really good cuts. And then look at what the team wants to do. Like they've brought Lovy Smith, they moved him from defensive coordinator to the head coach.

That's a pretty high team move. Tim Kelly remains the offensive coordinator, so you still have the same play caller there. And last year, they were tied for 10th in neutral rush rate. So when the game is close, they want to run so bad. When the game is close, they want to run. In the four wins last year, they averaged. 36 rushing attempts per game as a team. Like, they want to establish it. And they had some crazy wins last year. They beat the Tennessee Titans, and they beat the Los Angeles Chargers. So it's finding a starting running back at that point of the NFL draft, or your fantasy draft, is like that, that is absolutely golden. That getting that volume for essentially free. I don't expect Damien Pierce to.

be outrageously great. I don't think he's going to be a top 15 running back, but he's going to be a guy on your bench that at any point, you can just pop him into your flex or as you're running back too, when you need some help. And then there is the possibility that he is just, he was overlooked by the NFL and the Texans are slightly better than we expect. So finishing in the top 24, I don't think is impossible for Damien Pierce. I think, I know Jason's going to disagree. So I'll just. put an exclamation point on the positives, and Jason can share his negatives. I think he'll be a star. I think Damien Pierce is going to be a star in the NFL level. I think the way he runs, the way he ran in Florida, look, like you said, not a lot of total production and yardage, but he scored 13 times on 100 touches. He runs like a bat out of hell. Yes. And I think that aggression with the team's commitment to the run and improvements, I mean, we all.

Praise Lovie Smith for what he could do with the defensive personnel that he had last year. I think that there are going to be some steps forward there that keep Damian Pierce on the field. And this is part a film thing where it's just calling your shot on a player and what you believe about them. I think he's going to have great success in year one. Yeah, I don't really have much negative to say on this. I mean, he's being drafted as the running back for you. I look at the guys going in his range. You know, James Robinson dealing with his own Achilles injury, Michael Carter, a backup, Alexander Madison, Isaiah Spilly. These are backups. If you're taking a shot at a guy, I have no problem with Damian Pierce. I think where my negativity comes in is more of the long-term outlook. Because, you know, we talked about this a little bit on the party room in a Dynasty League, because he's a fourth-round draft pick, if he comes out and has a really good year.

There's no guarantee that he's just not still replaced. Like the way that Travis E.T.N. was drafted when James Robinson was awesome because they didn't have a lot invested to him. Same that happened to Philip Lindsay. Same that happened last year to Michael Carter, a fourth round rookie was very good. And then they go draft Breeze Hall. So it's more like the long-term outlook for Damian Pierce, I think gets a little out of control in Dynasty. But he looks good and he's got the opportunity. Obviously, it's a bad team. Still could be a running back by committee that he leads. But, I mean, I don't see other running backs where he's going that I would prefer to take a shot on. Okay. Adam Thielen is my value pick. Yes. What do you think, Jason? I hope he is right. I do not want to be caught holding the bag when he ages out. That's fine, because me and Andy are skipping together. We're holding this bag. And look, Mike, I might let go halfway through the year. I'm not sure.

But look, he's just being left for dead with all the optimism on the Minnesota Vikings offense. He is a historically great red zone target. All the personnel, you know, we have stability with the quarterback wide receiver combination around the red zone. Over the last two years, wide receivers with more touchdowns than Adam Thielen, it's Mike Evans and Devante Adams. That's it. 21 targets from inside the 10-yard line, 16 touchdowns on those 21 targets. So not only do they just do it, but this isn't like they try to target Julio Jones with Matt Ryan and then it just doesn't work out. It almost always works out. And you have a lot of optimism around this Kevin O'Connell offense. I have a lot of confidence in Kevin O'Connell in general. I think he's going to bring a lot of...

consistency to the offensive side of the football, in particular the passing game. And I think Adam Thielen still has greatness in him. Now, he may start really strong and you may use the age argument to say, hey, it's time to cash in. If he starts strong and then move on from him for the second half of the year, I'm comfortable with that. We have seen injuries to Adam Thielen, especially in the second half of the season. But. This was the wide receiver 7 in fantasy football last year through the first 12 weeks. The wide receiver 7. And on pace for 97, 1,000, 16 touchdowns. You're now seeing him drafted as the wide receiver 29. If he has anything left, he beats his ADP. And everything out of camp is that he has everything left, that he looks more like his previous self, not less. And you have the confidence of Kirk Cousins.

Until that drop-off happens before my eyes, the cost in drafts is so minimal to put Adam Thielen on your roster. He's the kind of player where somebody else in your league is going to take him and start them against you, and you're going to roll out your top two-round wide receivers, and then Thielen's going to beat you in week one, and you're going to say that's not fair. Yeah. But that's kind of the situation you have with Adam Thielen, and I think, you know, You draft him as the 30th wide receiver. He's not even a wide receiver too. So Sean McVeigh, if you recall over the offseason, there was some whispers from the bushes, some rumors abound that Sean McVe may retire and go take a gigantic bag of money from Amazon to be a part of their new Thursday night football program. And that ended up not happening. And we heard later that Sean McVeigh shared.

If he had retired, Kevin O'Connell was the most likely replacement for him for the Rams. Like he talks up Kevin O'Connell so much. And so it's like the Rams system, that offensive system is coming over to the Minnesota Vikings. And if, you brought this up the other day. If KJ. Osborne, the third wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, if he can take the step up that is being. reported. And like, I mean, he's he's a younger guy, 25. He's got some wheels. He's good. I think he passes the film test. Yeah. We saw him last year hit on a number of really big plays. But when they go to three wide receivers, I think that there is a chance that Adam Theon gets put into the slot, which that is where Cooper Cup dominates. You have such a mismatch when you have a skilled route runner and a gigantic human in there. That's not normal.

for the NFL. Usually your slot wide receiver is your, you're inferior, your third guy. They're smaller. But certain teams are figuring out, well, I can really get a mismatch here if I put my big guy and I get an easy touchdown. Arif Hassan of the athletic did report that they are. clearly committed to three wide receiver sets as the base offensive formation in Minnesota as well. So you will see, I mean, that is a little side. Like Osborne could be a value too. I think he is. I mean, I think that the Minnesota Vikings offense is one that I've been targeting a lot. Kirk Cousins is very undervalued in drafts right now. KJ. Osborne could really surprise by being a more integral part of this offense than you think. And keep in mind, they're getting bigger Smith back as well.

But a lot of those reasons are also little fears for Adam Thielen being like, okay, well, if the younger KJ Osborne and Irv Smith and obviously Justin Jefferson is the one, you did see some decline, obviously around the goal line, little routes. I mean, you're not going to stop Adam Thielen. The reason he was the wide receiver 7 in the beginning of the year was because he was just getting touchdowns all over the place, and that's great. But those are less sticky, less predictive. If you look at like his yards per catch, You know, he's a, spend his whole career as a 13.2 type of guy, always at least 12 and a half or above. Last year was 10.8. He's playing at 32. It's kind of a scary number for wide receivers that aren't first ballot Hall of Famers. So if he is just, you know, I know the reports are he's like the younger version of himself. No, he's not. Like that, those reports are stupid to me because he's not a younger version of himself. And we hear it all the time.

That's not to say he doesn't look great in camp and hooray, looks healthy, looks active, and that you can't take that. But like, he's 32. He didn't go back in time and no one ever does. So at some point, he will slow down and be a little bit easier to guard. And those are my fears. But obviously, he's a great wide receiver. And you're not spinning too much if he's the 30th wide receiver off the board. All right, Jason. Time for your value pick. Oh, my value has no limit. There it is. There it is. I tried to set you. I struggled. Yeah, I struggled to find it. That's all right. You can hit it again. Or I thought you were just doing like a really big space between your sentences. Yeah. Let's, I can make that joke for days. Russell Wilson is my value pick. I think he is such a value in drafts right now. I know.

He is cheesy. He's a true corn puff and a real square. I don't want to hang out with him any time soon, but he is a darn good quarterback. And for the first time that we've never really seen him unleashed in the Pete Carroll system, he has an opportunity to be the play caller at the line, to air it out, to use a really good receiving court in Cortland Sutton and Jerry Judy and Albert Aguebenon, two good running backs that he can pass the ball to. KJ. Hamler with his 4-3-2 speed. Yeah, they're loaded. They are loaded. And if you just look at the past, Russ cooks up quarterback one numbers every single year. Before this last year where he was injured, his quarterback finishes on his career are quarterback 11, 8339-9-9-4-6. He's currently being drafted as the quarterback 9. He's being drafted basically at his floor.

And so as a value, to me, I see a group of quarterbacks that I really want one of. They are the kind of middle round. They're not too early. The opportunity cost doesn't cost that much. Jalen Hertz, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson is kind of the last guy for me. Now, it gets scary in a draft because when he's the last of a tier. That's what I was going to ask. Would you reach for him based on this view where? you're going sixth round Russell because you want to, you don't want to be in that situation where you're like, oh, I'll just count on Russell in the seventh round. And then you get there, he goes in the sixth ahead of you. And then you're like, I've got somebody else that I don't like. I think it's a dangerous gamble that's worth taking because in the sixth round is where, you know, if you're there, I'm not going to take him over. Jalen hurts just because of the rushing upside. Russell's no longer going to be a.

600-yard rusher. He still has mobility and he'll add two fantasy on the ground, but he's not going to be Jalen Hertz. So if I'm in the sixth, I'm going to take those other guys, but let Russ drop to the seventh. He's a great value. You know he's going to come through one of the highest odds for MVP betting. No argument from me. I think he's a great value. Bestball Breakdown, presented by Underdog Fantasy. All right. So every week, you know, leading up to the season, we've been doing these segments where we're talking best ball. We're talking about underdog. And honestly, this one, this is more of an observation here. Just kind of, we've got the data. It is pouring in. The more you know. And this is information. We're not sure exactly which way to go with it just yet. But so listen, rookie wide receivers are breaking best ball.

And what we know factually about rookie wide receivers, not all of them are Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase. We happen to have two guys that came in and just, you know, just stormed the field and were crazy good for the NFL and fantastic for fantasy football. And you know, we've had some surges, Jalen Wattle, Haman Ross, St. Brown. But over the last seven years for best ball, the average ADP for a first round wide receiver. It's the 11th round. The average ADP for a second round wide receiver was in the 15th round. And this is the past seven years. And now with what has happened with those just handful of elite outliers, the ADP of the rookie wide receivers is shooting to the moon. Drake London, we all like Drake London.

Cool, excellent prospect. I love the Drake. Yeah, the first wide receiver off the board. And he is going as the third highest rookie wide receiver ever for best ball. Sky Moore, currently ADP of 90th. That is the highest second round pick ever for ADP for a rookie wide receiver. George Pickens, the third highest second round 80P ever. Romeo Dobbs, the new hotness. the highest fourth round rookie wide receiver ADP and best ball history. The ADPs of the rookies are just out of control. So I guess this is a tip for if you truly like rookie wide receivers. You can't go back now, but looking into the future, those ADPs are much, much lower. Back.

earlier on the offseason, like right around even before the draft, you know who the good wide receivers are if you're locked in. If you're sticking around with the fantasy footballers all year, we're going to let you know who the good players are going to be. That's when you can really capitalize on the ADPs. But at this point, I mean, you're really, really paying up. You're not going back to the glory days anytime soon of being able to sneak these guys under your roster because Jefferson and Chase have ruined it. Exactly. Because of the power of if you did get them late, you won. Yes. So on average, we've seen 4.6 total rookie wide receivers meet or exceed their win rate expectation. But which.

Kind of sounds like we're getting a little too overconfident in what these rookies are going to do based off of where we are taking them in the Underdog Best Ball draft. So just, you know, take that information, do with it what you will. It's just, it's getting a little, it's getting a little dicey there with that ADP over absolute known commodities. All right. That was Best Ball Breakdown presented by Underdog Fantasy. Start playing on Underdog today. Heck, if you start playing an underdog, you'll probably end up in a draft with Jason because he is just constantly in a draft. They'll match your first deposit up to $100 if you use the code ballers. So make sure you use that code so you can get free money. Yes. Free money is all right. Thank you for reminding me, Andy. I am.

Indeed on the clock. Yeah, yeah, I have no doubt. I glance over. I'm also one pickaway, two picks away, two picks away, five picks away, et cetera. To be clear, have you made all the right picks this year? Oh, yeah, they're 100% win rate. And it just said like, guilty as charged. I just did a best ball tournament. So Drake London's 73rd, 80p. I took him at 80. Like, I am guilty of this as well of getting really excited for what the rookie wide receivers could do. Ultimate draft kid.com head over there. You'll get all of our detailed staff projections on every single fantasy football relevant player, 100 plus player profile videos, the cheat sheet creator so you can bring it to your draft and you can mark players. You can take keepers off the board. Actually, yesterday I know, I know it sounds kind of funny, but yesterday I redid our link of record in the UDK.

and like pulled out all the keepers, marked all my favorite, because we got our draft coming up next Friday. I wanted to keep it fresh, right? And I've got it all prepped up and ready to go. About time. I mean, I've been there for weeks, brother. Well, I know. I wanted fresh eyes on some of these players. We talked about them for so long that I just had a day where I wanted to just go through and say, you know what? I need to remember that James Robinson sitting there in the last round. I need to remember about some of these. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Please draft him.

I'll take James Robinson in the last round. I will take any potential starting running back in the last round. I would as well. I mean, my bet against Cam Acres isn't that no one can ever come back from an Achilles. It's that I don't want to make that bet in the third round. Fair. James Robinson was already slow. He'll be fine. He'll be fine. He was a little twitchier than the explosive. His long speed is bad. No, he's going to be rookie of the year on this Achilles. Don't worry about it. It's going to be more powerful. It's going to be the flash. Yeah.

Yeah. But yeah, check that out at Ultimate DraftKit.com. We'll be back with a mock draft episode tomorrow. Oh, baby. Mokalaka ding dong. We'll talk to you then. We will. Stay safe, everybody. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.