Fantasy Football - AFC South Breakdown + Booty Scootin' Bhayshul Tuten - Podcast for 7/9

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers back with you Thursday, July 9th. Welcome to the show. Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway. Back with you, youtube.com slash thefantasyfootballers. If you want to watch the show as well.

And we are on to our second divisional breakdown episode. I thought it was pretty fun talking through the AFC North on our last show. This is a fun division, too. Yeah, it is. Yeah, there's so many questions that need to be answered today. And so we're talking through the AFC South. Yeah, I mean, Jacksonville is its own thing. It's its own thing, man. It's own thing. Houston. I mean, it's part of it. It's a different team. Houston's just like, I feel like there's no excitement around Houston. For fantasy football? On the offense. Yeah, it feels like a stick in the mud.

Yeah, I mean, obviously we'll get to the Texans later. But I mean, it's too good of an offense with not a good enough quarterback. It's pretty simple. Too good of a defense? Or defense, yeah. And then Cam Ward and the Titans and all the changes there. We'll get into all those teams. I guess I shouldn't leave the Colts out either if I'm just introducing them all. I feel like I'm going to hear about that. But Daniel Jones, coming back from injury. UltimateDraftGuit.com. That is the website. Go check it out. It's available right now. The draft analyzer is live as well.

And we have a brand new feature launching in probably a week or two. On the mobile app. Yeah. And I'm not going to give anything away, but it rhymes with schmock. Yeah. I had a particular user, very friendly, try to extort a UDK for life. They're like, if I guess what the new feature is. I was like, what? No. If you guess like a. If you guess what the. This wasn't even a trail of breadcrumbs. This was the loaf. Yeah. If you guess that it is a fantasy footballers mock draft tool, you will be very close. But unlike other mock draft tools, you don't get the opportunity in them to, you know, bring in the ADP of various platforms.

All the mock draft tools that exist, the majority of them are, you know. Platform specific. Yeah. They're built for the platforms themselves. And this will be something that you'll be able to do mock drafts, not just by yourself, but with friends. Invite friends into them. Start from any mixture of average draft position, default rankings. Have all of our stats. This UDK information in there is what the feature could be. That might be what the feature is that we're going to release. And that's the hint I'm going to give. Speaking of the ultimate draft kit, it's a living, breathing document. We're in there constantly.

You know, right now it's a little bit of a lull in quarterbacks are going on Alaskan cruises and not a ton happening at this very moment. But we did have a we had a move happen after the to the AFC North show. Oh, on your team? No, for our UDK. It was really. I was finally able to break through about my man, Zay Flowers. Yeah. Get him out of the bus. He's great. Early. He's great. Be careful. I'll put him back in. Don't overplay it. The pendulum swings. It goes back and forth. Yeah. When we first statted out the UDK and when ADP was not as up to date, it was like people were drafting

based on what happened last year. Zay's not going to repeat that right now. Zay's very low. He's in the fifth round. Yeah. And so that, you know, all of our sleepers, breakouts, busts and values are in there. And those are those shift. I mean, when you hear that opinions and things are shifting, it's very much based on the market. It's based on our projections for the players relative to where they're going in fantasy and whether they're a better value or they're a player that's just not going to end up on your team because you're never going to take them ahead of other names.

So our sleepers, breakouts, busts and values, they evolve as well. We have our consensus opinions in there on those guys. But, you know, Zay Flowers in the fifth, that's not a bust. Zay Flowers in the second, that's a bust. That's the difference. It's not my belief on the player and the output. It's where the market is telling you this player belongs. Just happen to have everyone aboard. I know Mike is very happy about that. So that's a good time to move on to the quick question of the day. Pretty soon he'll be in values. We'll see. Well, he might be.

I don't know. But ultimatedraftkit.com for that. Quick question comes from Lee in Vancouver. Bonjour. Yes. Is there ever a case for drafting two elite tight ends, say Trey McBride and Colston Loveland or Tyler Warren? It goes on to say, could the second tight end outscore similarly drafted wide receivers serve as a weekly flex while also blocking opponents, providing injury insurance? I don't think we've ever talked about like injury insurance at tight end because we never really think about it that way. Yeah. It's an interesting question. And the answer is no. Yeah. Come on. The answer is definitely not. We do get on here every year and be like, well, Trey McBride would have been the wide

receiver seven. Yeah. But you have to thread the needle so perfectly. Yeah. That's the problem. You got to get right twice. And then on top of that, now you can't. I mean, you're not really playing matchups. You're saying, well, these two tight ends are going to go into my lineup every single week, no matter what. And you're like, oh, I just scooped up, you know, this hot running back who's got the opportunities there, got a good matchup. You're like, well, but I got this tight end I drafted in the third round. I got to play him. And it's the opportunity cost.

I mean, when you take a tight end early, you're assuring yourself a really good one, assuming you're getting one of the true elites. But then you are, even when you just take one, you are sacrificing a running back or a wide receiver for depth of one of those elite ones if you're taking them in the second or third round. And so to do that twice, it's like, okay, yeah, your tight end will be good. Your flex will be good. Maybe just as good as the wide receiver or running back that you, you know, he might score as much as the running back or wide receiver that you would have taken.

But you can't play him. You need multiple running backs, multiple wide receivers. You need depth. It is a, it's a game strategy mistake. And you're not going to be able to trade for value. The only way that it works to have like two tight ends, if you want to take a swing at the end of your draft where you're, the opportunity cost isn't there. Last year, Harold Fannin. If you were like, I believe in Harold Fannin. That's fine. That happened with Darren Waller. Like his, the news of his ascension in training camp when he was with the Raiders, like that

was pretty late. If George Kittle's at the end of my draft and I, and I drafted McBride because people are afraid of the injury. Sure. Yeah. There's a couple like George and Tucker craft. There's a chance in your league. People are just completely scared off of them. And they're, and they, and then you're like, you're looking at multiple rounds after ADP where they would have gone. Does, does drafting McBride Bowers, those guys at the top dissuade you from taking a shot on a, whatever, say Stowers, say Sadiq, say Gadsden, somebody late. Do you, if it's, are you still willing to just take a shot on that?

If it's super late, not like, okay, Tucker craft has fallen to the eighth, but if it's a super late pick, it doesn't dissuade me. However, I don't know that in this year's particular draft, like Sadiq would be the name. I personally am not a believer. So I will be, I will be, I will be bypassing, um, for at least this year, but in certain years, I think that that's a good strategy. Here's what, one thing we have learned from repeated mock drafts on the show and just experience over the years. What's funny about taking one of those onesie guys, like you can get a good value.

Let's say you get a good value on McBride. What's good value on McBride? Let's get fourth. Okay. Or a good value on Josh Allen or something like that. Right. If you pull the trigger on a onesie, even just at value, the one thing we don't talk about very much is the fact that you have now lost your opportunity to jump on value at that position later in the draft, if it happens. Which is why I am much more hesitant to grab a second or third round quarterback I love than I am at the tight end position because there are so many late round quarterbacks that

I love Jackson Dart, where he falls sometimes in drafts, Dak, where he falls in drafts. Which you're saying goodbye to if you take the early quarterback. We've experienced this where it's like, okay. You look back at the draft, you're like, man, a great pass there. Josh Allen in the third. And now I'm just like, oh man, Dart is sitting here in the 11th. What a dummy. I wish I could have taken this and had that running back. But it doesn't happen as often with tight ends just because there's not a handful late that you're like, what a darling. They all suck.

We don't really have any news to talk about other than the fact that it's been reported that the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield are still, quote, not close on an extension. Guys, on this show, I told you, don't be surprised if Baker Mayfield, if they go into the season. You said it on this show? I did. I wasn't listening. No. You thought they might go in dirty and see what happens? I think they might ride dirty. And if Baker has a bad year, then they're going to be like, okay, go ahead. Test the market. Funny thing about Baker is if he has a good year, I think he may make them pay for that.

Yeah. By leaving. But yeah. I mean, or the cost. It's always hard with that rancher. Financially, they'll make him pay. The DAC move was not a good gamble by Dallas. No. So, I mean, that's what it feels like. If I were Tampa Bay, I mean, I think Baker's proven enough to me. I would get the deal done. Yeah. What's always funny about those is like, well. But Baker may be asking for a lot more. Like, we need you to go out there and prove it. You're like, how many years? But do you want me to succeed or do you want me to fail?

Because it's like, if you fail, then okay, we did it. Then you were right. Yeah, you're right. The price has gone down. But if you're right and I'm bad for your team, then what are we doing here? That is really weird. But shout out to Jerry Jones. That's why he runs his business. Okay. Let's get divisional. Well, we just covered the AFC North on the previous episode. Today is the AFC South breakdown. And, man, the division went through some wild times last year. We started the season with Indianapolis was on fire. There was a story of the NFL. Jonathan Taylor in fantasy was incredible.

Daniel Jones was getting it done on a weekly basis. They were one of the top scoring offenses. They were like 7-1 in the league. Something like that. And they lost their last seven games of the season. They were 8-2. The number one seed in the league. When I was going back re-watching film and I was hearing, like, broadcasters talking about it, it was like, wow, that's right. Late in the season, this team was talked about as definite Super Bowl considered. They were the number one seed in the league. And they didn't make the playoffs. And what's wild, too, is it's like a lot has been made of Jacksonville's finish to the year.

They started the year 5-4 and they won their last eight games to finish 13-4, win the division. But not as much, as I said earlier in the show, has been made of Houston, who started 4-5 and won their last nine games. And honestly, if you tell me which team, not to take anything away from Jacksonville, but in the playoffs, which team did every other team out there not want to play? Houston. It was the Texans. That was the team where it's like, how do you score? How do you score on that defense? Yeah, and so you look at those two teams and one just has a—

Stroud falls on his face. Yeah, that's how you score. Four picks. Yeah, you look at those two teams and one just is very attractive for the fantasy football discussion in Jacksonville. The excitement is built around their offense and one is built around their defense. And so we'll start with Jacksonville. Last year they were 13-4, as I said. They won more than 10 games for the first time since 2017. I mean, it was an amazing start of the head coaching career for Liam Cohen, who, you know, we started the offseason with Duvall and our questions about that man. But they were answered.

Now, they were also—the challenge that I see with Jacksonville is, you know, they're going to play a first-place schedule now. They were 6-3-1 score games. And the performance of Trevor Lawrence was so different than the rest of his entire career that I think in the back of my head I'm waiting for the shoe to drop. I mean, Indianapolis fell on their face because they lost their quarterback, right? Tennessee was hapless. And they have a brand-new, you know, offensive, you know, coordinator that we like and a head coach that we respect. So part of it was, yeah, you played a lot better, but part of it was, look,

Trevor Lawrence was just on fire. Trevor Lawrence's rushing totals in particular, nine rushing touchdowns, is pretty wild. And so when you look at what he's capable of doing with the weapons that he has, he's not going to score nine times again. No, not on the ground. No way. So then the passing numbers, you need to do what he did over the last, you know, 10 weeks of the season on the course of the whole year. And maybe that happens. They were 6 in points per game, 10th in yards per game, and everything basically changed after the bye week for him.

I mean, his completion percentage jumped 4%. His yards per attempt jumped almost two yards. Passing touchdowns per game, up to two from 1.3. It was just seven top-12 finishes in the last 10 weeks. He was at a 6.6% touchdown rate after the bye week, which that's unsustainable. So, you know, we have years and years of regression data. When a player is that high up in your touchdown percentage, it comes down, and it usually hits like a rock. But the fact that he was in the new offense, we saw what Liam Cohen did, you know, a couple years ago with Baker,

and then kind of consequently the Bucs were not so great the following year. I'm more bought in on Trevor Lawrence and what the Jacksonville Jaguars are able to accomplish. You know, again, that level will come down, but Lawrence looks like a great pick right now in fantasy. I think there was a part of this offseason where I was pretty close to, like, putting Trevor Lawrence as, like, a definite my guy. I think I've come off of that a little bit. Just those rushing totals are concerning to me. The fact that it is a division, I think, is very challenging, and I'm just a little bit worried about the worst-case scenario more than I am

whether he can hit the best-case scenario. And so will he repeat as a fantasy difference maker? Mike, it sounds like you think the answer is yes. Yeah, especially where he's going in the draft. You know, I'm seeing back of the eighth round for a guy that top five is in the range of outcomes to me. I think that's very fair. Yeah, I'm fine taking Trevor Lawrence. We took him in a league we're in together earlier today at a good value. I took him in Scotty. That being said, the question as to whether or not he's going to fall on his face

is just did he level up? Was it a true – you know, because he's been inconsistent. I've never – since his rookie year when he was supposed to be the next greatest thing, he has not lived up to that. But he's a horse boy for a reason, and that is because he is a child. Part boy. He is part boy. He's 26. Boy, half horse. Right, right. So the horse boy – Genetic. Name makes sense. But I do think he might have genuinely leveled up. He was young enough with a good system in place with Liam Cohen. The second half of the year looked so much better where, you know,

the completion percentage, that matters quite a bit to me. And he has earlier in his career had – you know, he's always been in the 60s. To start the season, it was a little rough. And then they figured it out. He has weapons. We talk about this all the time. We don't know which Jacksonville Jaguar receiver – is it Parker Washington because of the slot usage and all of the success that he had and that Liam Cohen has had with that role? Or is it Brian Thomas Jr. because, you know, first-round NFL draft pick who comes out in his rookie year and looks like a superstar?

Or, you know, Travis Hunter? There's so many options. But it all goes to Trevor Lawrence. I think he leveled up. I am in on him at value. I agree with you, Andy. He's not a guy I'm, like, hyper-targeting and planting my flag on. I think we had this conversation once in 2022 when that season ended, and he was the quarterback eight, and, again, it's about worst-case scenario for me, which I've seen reversion from him, whether it's week-to-week or season-to-season. That's just in the back of my mind. I agree with you. The value is probably fine to take a chance on it.