Starts of the Week + Week 12 Breakdown, It’s Football Time! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/21

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. His football time, yeah. Oh, I have expected Papa Josh to take over the its football time after yesterday's performance. The glory days for Papa Josh. He was getting a lot of positive feedback on that. Which? I would like to talk to the YouTube commenters. Our job, I think, is clear. Our job is to dunk on the deucers, tell them what bad people, what bad jobs they've done. But the YouTube commenters usually are very kind to the deucers. Sympathetic. Sympathetic. Yeah. Wonderful people. Yeah, it's like the Make a Wish kid's stuff. Right. And so, you know, I just want to thank our audience for being so kind.

to such losers because they need there they know they build them up build build these uh little guys up i agree we do need that thank you yeah yeah al al borland in the house we've got a thursday episode of the show oh you're looking good in that white jacket i like it thanks man he doesn't wear non black so it's always a is a hand me down from a good buddy of mine oh is that really it's jason's old jacket oh that's fun i had No idea I was complimenting myself. Now, why did you give him the jacket? Um, I think it didn't fit me probably. Correct. It probably does not. But I think I've worn it back. Oh, okay. All right. Well, uh, great show today. NFL news starts of the week. Fantasy forecast parlay partay. Lots going on. Big, uh, big waiver day yesterday. And teams getting primed. I ended up getting Taysam Hill. Yeah. Took the shot.

Much to Al Borland's chagrin. I ended up in Dynasty getting Amir Abdullah. So, you know, we each have our big wins. Yeah, no, you paid up. Yeah, your dynasty, Jason's dynasty team has no running backs to start. They're all on by. And so Amir Abdullah was your best choice, which I read something this morning that Dylan Laube is going to be a big part of the offense. I hope he is. Because that means that Zemir White and Alexander Madison aren't playing. So Abdullah would have a role. Exactly. Join thefoot.com where you can find the ultimate dashboard, a bonus weekly episode of the podcast, all of our premium tools and resources, the discord community access. Everything can be found at join the foot.com. Come and hang out with us about 40,000 strong in the foot clan. And we love you guys. We appreciate you in the...

Community is awesome. A reminder, click that follow button on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you're listening. Drop us a review if you've got a few minutes. You can follow the show on YouTube, watch it. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Jay Gris sitting in today and already sporting the crown from last week. So we've got three crowns to put on today. Yeah, it feels good to be, you know, we three kings. Yeah, you know. Seven of the last nine have been hits, which is making me just more at peace with who we are as human beings. Because I think in the beginning we were... We had a rough stretch. We had a rough stretch and we were maybe playing it too safe, less about... Conviction, more about lying. And now we're trying to find things we really believe in. And it's working. Yeah, it's been fun. Let's jump into some news.

News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. I had not seen this news. The first piece of news? Yes. Yeah, I'm not too worried, but I also don't have them as my start of the week. Yeah, so you saw that. Eagles wide receiver, Devante Smith, did not practice on Wednesday due to a hamstring injury. We'll talk about him more in a minute. Get to monitor that. Noah Fant didn't practice. He's missed the last two games for the Seahawks. Yeah, I mean, obviously, if someone's missing games, that's bad with Devante Smith. The Wednesday reports, you just, you take them all with a grain of salt. If he misses a Thursday with a hamstring, you start getting worried. George Kittle Limited on Wednesday says he's going to play. Oh, he's playing. He's for sure playing. He says he can't pass up playing against the Packers. He'll be out there for sure. Well, there you go. That's good news. Zemir White, Alexander Madison didn't practice. Monitor both of them. And whether or not Abdullah and Lauby are the.

I'll be the lucky guys getting to start for the Raiders. Taji Spears didn't practice. It's going to be hard pressed for him to get out there with the concussion. And then Ridley didn't practice due to illness. He should be okay. Josh Jacobs limited due to quad and calf injuries. Also another one to monitor. And we have. Go ahead. Marshawn Lloyd went on the NFI list for his appendicitis. So it'll be a couple weeks before he's back as well. Yes. Yes. So monitor those. And we have an injury blitz podcast as part of the join the foot perks. It comes out on Friday featuring our injury expert Matthew Betts. And we'll have the practice reports the rest of the week. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Starts of the week. Why don't you kick it off at wide receiver? Well, is where we're going to start? Let's just do it. I mean, Devante Smith is slash was.

I guess currently still is my pick at start of the week, plays the Rams. Now, it's Sunday night. So if there's doubt, I would pivot out because, you know, there are other options. And if you don't know going into, I would say by Saturday, if you don't know definitively that he's fine, which look, we could get a practice report in a matter of minutes that he is practicing today. It's been up and down for Devante Smith. We talked about him extensively yesterday. This is about the matchup. This is about a 49 point over under. This is about the Eagles having a 26 point implied total. This is about the Rams being dead last against wide receivers. This is a opportunity to play a guy that's been up and down in a great matchup, assuming he's healthy. Yeah. Devonte Smith with an asterisk as of this morning's practice report.

Yeah, I still expect that he'll play and be a good play this week. I don't think it's a bad start of the week. Obviously needs to play for that to come to fruition. My wide receiver start of the week is a guy that people are loving, people are starting, but still undervaluing what Joanne Jennings is for the San Francisco 49ers. He's their wide receiver one. You've got Debo Samuel, you got George Kill, you got Brandon Ayukes injury, and all the names ahead of them. Christian McCaffrey's back. But Joanne Jennings, In the games where he's been a full-time starter, you're talking 12 targets, 11 targets, 11 targets. His behind-the-scenes metrics, they're off the charts. He's targeted on 27% of his routes. They tried to put him in the charts. They couldn't fit them. No, because they're off. They're off the chart. Ah, the printer didn't print far enough. He's averaging 2.8 4 yards per route run. That's outstanding. 28% of the team's first read targets. That is wide receiver 1 alpha type of stuff.

In fact, those three metrics, those three great behind the scenes of metrics. You want to know the only other wide receivers who have hit all three of those this year? Nico Collins, A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson. So Juan Jennings is like not someone you can start. He has someone you can't bench. Well put. Well put. That connection has been there all year long. And if you dig deeper on the Debo metrics this season. They're not good. No, and you know, I went back and watched a little bit of film. And there were just plays where it's like, Debo always gets that play and he didn't. He's not playing well, and this is not out of character. He had a really down year two years ago and even talked about it after the season, just saying he played poorly. I believe I saw something about three of four, three of his four catches last week were against Prevent in the end of halves. So he wasn't even accumulating his minimal.

production against the primary defenses. We'll pivot here. Running back, we'll go in a random order than we normally do. Running back's going to be Devon A. Chan against New England. I think he can be the number one overall running back on the week as my start of the week. He has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game when two has been his quarterback. That is near the peak in the league. I believe Mixins at 21.7 for the Running back one, this is 20.6. He's right there. The reception totals, the fact that this office just looks fundamentally different, the waddle downfield stuff not happening, Tyreek down the field not happening. They're willing to get the ball out of two his hands quickly, and A-chan is a perfect target for that. New England's struggling against running backs. This could be the best week of the year for A-chan.

Yeah, yeah, it really could be. I worry a little bit about the passing volume there just because they're not going to need to if they are beating them, and that's where A. Chan's done a lot, but A.C.N. is so good. And New England with Drake May has been staying in games and throwing the football. Yeah, I really hope that happens. Routing for Drake May and Hunter Henry this week. My running back start of the week, Brian Robinson Jr. versus the Dallas Cowboys. B. Rob. B. Rob is back from his injury, and he was fully back. Last week, there was no ease him in. He got a ton of opportunities. He's averaging a solid 13 and a half fantasy points per game on 16 opportunities a game. In fact, around the goal line, and this is really where I love Brian Robinson, the goal line, he's tied with Joe Mixing for fifth most touchdowns inside the 10 with 7. He has as many 10 zone carries as James Connor.

or Alvin Camara, despite the fact that he's missed three games. Now you look at the actual matchup against Dallas. The commanders are the second highest team-implied total of the week. They're 10.5 point home favorites. That's going to be leading to them running the ball at the end. And Dallas is pretty much the worst run defense in the league. They're 32nd in expected points versus the run. 31st and rushing yards allowed per game. 30th and total touchdowns to running backs. I mean, whatever metric you want to look, they suck against the run. What about the charts? Are they on them, off them? What's the situation there? They're like a black hole right in the middle of the charts that says target the running game here. Got it. All right. We shall talk quarterbacks. How about that? All right. Haven't got to say this name a lot with confidence. I am very confident this week. See, Jay.

Stroud. Nico Collins back. You saw the difference already. Yes, it was touchdowns on the ground through Joe Mixon, but moving the football is a lot easier with Nico Collins. A full allotment of snaps expected this week. No legurious need for the Tennessee defense. And at home, Stroud's over 300 yards, a 5% touchdown rate. He's very comfortable at home. Titans giving up a ton of points per game. I like C.J. Stroud this week. You have players on by. in a situation where you might be wavering between a couple of quarterback options, and I think Stroud's going to give you his best performance of the year. I'm going to give two starts of the week for a quarterback. Mike's not here. Mike's not here. Mike's not here. And there's also a player because I just give them all. How about every player? Let me tell you all the players to play. It's called my rankings. You can see them at the fancy footballers.com. My start of the week is Bo Nix, who's been on fire. Bow Nix. He's been a top 12 quarterback.

Five of his last seven games. He was already the quarterback nine versus the Raiders in week five. He had three total touchdowns. They don't really have a good running game, which is part of what I love here. But he's just, he's been on fire. And, you know, the matchup against the Raiders, again, since week three, you're talking about really exposed secondaries, 28th that scheduled just fantasy points to quarterback's 30th and expected points added per pass attempt. Bo Nix should be really, really good. He's got a good rushing floor, and he's actually throwing touchdowns. But I also want to shout out to Baker Mayfield. Coming off the by against the Giants who have a good front, he gets Mike Evans back. That is probable at this point. You know, I'm looking. Yes, Laser. My league of record team, Andy, and I'm still in it. I'm still fighting because the reason I'm bringing up Baker is because I've got C.J. Stroud.

And I've got Gino Smith and I've got Baker Mayfield on the team. You have Stroud and League of Record? Yeah, yeah. That was part of the Herbert trade last week. Oh, so you're making a decision here. And I got to make a decision. Baker gets Mike Evans back. As of right now, I'm going Baker. Yeah, I get that. I get that. Don't make the wrong pick. Yeah, I hope not to. Tighten start of the week's going to be Hunter Henry this week. He's run the most routes of all tight ends through 11 weeks, fifth in targets. Got a pile of targets last week. Plays Miami. Drake May can throw it. We'll be talking parley, Parte later, but I know Drake May plays the part in that. Hunter Henry's just been very, very solid. A 21% target share in this offense, seven targets a game. And that's a weak area for Miami. Miami defense is 29th against the tied-in position. Brock Bowers had 16 targets and 13 catches against the same Miami defense last week. It's just where Miami chooses to.

um let you work so hunter henry i think is very solid i love that play he is he should be really really good obviously they're you know these are the situations where all of a sudden maybe austin hooper ends up with four catches for 50 yards you're like ah those are my hunter but i do don't be a party hooper well said no okay all right poorly said yeah uh my tight end this is uh mike's not here to give me some special kind of underpants to put on But this is we don't have underpants control without him. Do we have control of our underpants? Do you have underpants? Turn that thing around. I can dig it up. But yeah, that'd be faster. Oh, yeah. Pick your pants. I got to find out where his pants are on this board. Pick your under panties. All right. I'm going. Titanium underpants. Titanium underpants. Oh, this test. Yeah. So if you've got injuries, if you've got by weeks and you need someone that's basically off the waivers into your lineup, I think it's Luke.

schoon maker the schoon maker he was fed in relief of turd ferguson last week he saw hold on yeah the relief of the turn schoon maker was fed in relief of herd ferguson yeah got it the people understand what i'm saying i got it uh when ferg daddy went down he saw 10 targets. He was six for 56. He was targeted on 34% of his routes leading the team. And it's easy to forget. I did forget this. I was talking to Mike because I was, I was wanting to drop in our dynasty league that we co-manage together. I was wanting to drop the schoon man early before the season. And he's like, I forgot he was a second round pick. This was a really, you know, highly drafted guy that he ended up losing the job to Fergalicious. And so.

Schoonmaker has his opportunity. The matchup is really good against Washington. Since week six, they're 24th and scheduled justice fantasy points allowed to tight end. I think that Cooper Rush targets Schoon Man a lot. All right. That's going to be our start to the week. We will take a break and jump right into the fantasy forecast. Should be a good one. Is that jacket pretty comfortable there, Al? Do you like it? Are you a big fan? I love it. Yeah. That's cool. Thanks for asking. Yeah, no problem. Here we go. It's time for Fantasy Forecast, presented by Draft King Sportsbook. I want, Jeremy, I want you to edit this out after we finish recording. Of course. But you producers are great and you do a great job. And we love you. Yeah. Consider it cut. Thank you. But thank you. Make sure that's not. Don't let, don't let the people hear that. Week 12 buys, Bengals, Bills, Falcons, Jags, Jets, and Saints. That's a lot.

I think that's why I got Tayson Hill yesterday, by the way. It's because the bye week and people having needs and not being able to throw somebody on their bench. Yeah, what's crazy is we have a bigger buy week in two weeks from now with more teams. But I think it is the specific teams this week that are gone that I feel like when I look around at all the leagues I'm in, and I'm in a lot of leagues, it seems like people that drafted a certain way all have these. specific teams players. And I look because there's teams that have no issues with biweeks or you have all of the buy weeks on your roster. I've got a couple of them that are that way. So it's tough, but it makes it, hey, quicker to get through the matchups. Well, Minnesota at 8 and 2 taking on the 4 and 6 Chicago Bears. I'm getting word that Brooks has been booted from the Zoom. He has no clue. He has no clue what's going on right now.

Brooks is just fading into the dust. I thought he's been here. This has been a while. Brooks has not been a part of the show for the last eight minutes. Whoopsies. Al, Al's been too busy just soaking up your compliments. Yeah, he's just over there modeling that jacket. All right. All right. We got Brooks with us now. Okay. Brooks is back. Poor guy. Minnesota 8 and 2, Chicago 4 and 6. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Minnesota minus 3 and a half. The overrunner is 39. You know what? Really? You know what? Wow. Andy's almost upset of the week. I don't know why, Jason, but that's the way I pick them. I pick them as I feel. Yeah, I mean... Three and a half, Chicago, I thought... Is it Thomas Brown? Is it Waldron being gone? It is the fact that the Bears were competitive last week against the Packers should have won the game on a last second field goal. It is the fact that Minnesota has been...

Good, not great recently. They have won three in a row. They have not all been smooth. And gross defensive battles, they have a way of being really close. Over under is just 39 points. I don't know. I don't know. I think I got it right last week. I think my almost upset last week panned out because I think I had Pittsburgh over Baltimore. And Pittsburgh ended up winning. So we'll see what happens in this one. Really fantasy-wise. You know, very disappointing week for Aaron Jones last week. This week his DK rushing receiving lines 81 and a half. I don't know if Jason, he was dealing with the ribs. They're going to need him in this one. It's very difficult to throw on the Chicago Bears. That's their strength and their defense. But where you can beat them is on the ground. And I think this Minnesota Vikings offense, if they want to have a good performance, get the W, they're going to need Aaron Jones to look better than he has looked really.

the last month. Week before last he was okay, but that was Jacksonville. But the last month, he has not been great, pretty inefficient and ineffective on the ground. Yeah, he had a great start to the year. You know, we've been talking a lot about the older statesman at running back having big performances, but we have not yet seen the end of the season from these guys with maybe more tired legs and a lot more to deal with and bumps and bruises. Aaron Jones will be started, but my eyes are going to be heavily. Like if he has another bad performance this week when they need him, when it's, you know, the softer part of the opponent's defense, I'm going to start kind of lowering Aaron Jones in my projections. DeAndre Swift did not practice on Wednesday due to a groin injury. Groin Index.com. Is he still up there? Yeah, I'm sure he is. Rocheon Johnson much more heavily involved in the post-Shane Waldron. So this is one thing we've got to keep in mind. The Bears offense.

changed. And we see this every year where sometimes when there is an offensive coordinator shift, it's just like Next Man Up, they're running the same system, and sometimes they change things, whether it's for the better or for the worst. We saw it last year with Joe Brady. The bills were one offense the first half of the year and a different style of offense, the second half of the year. It's too early to know definitively after one game what you're going to have from the Bears, but we have to be willing to shift our beliefs here. of how the bears function, maybe the pecking order of the wide receivers, and the involvement of the running backs. Rocheon was much more involved. Now, I don't really love either of these running backs against Minnesota. They are number two against the run. They're number two schedule adjusted for fantasy points given up to running backs, basically given up 14.4 fantasy points per game to the running back entirety. So if you split that between...

DeAndre Swift and Rochon Johnson, I think without touchdowns are going to be pretty disappointed this week. How are you feeling about DGMO right now? He's receiving lines at 49 and a half in his first game without Waldron. Seven catches, 62 yards. A lot of those were the little screen manufactured touches. Do you feel like he is a safe flex or a risky flex? He is safer without Waldron. The fact that they were manufacturing some of those touches. I believe he had four screen passes. Yeah, I was watching that game, and that's what I kept seeing. And four total receptions was the most he had had for the previous month. So it's certainly an upgrade. Also, Minnesota, you know, they are a pass funnel defense. Wide receivers usually have success against them because their offense has been scoring, and you can't really run on them. So DJ Moore is a scary flex right now.

But I think you can flex him. The question, Keenan Allen, you can't, he shouldn't even be rostered, in my opinion. I can't fathom having him on my roster. Keenan on your roster or Westbrook-A-Kine? I think Westbrook-A-Kine. I mean, neither is the real answer. I would not want either of those guys on my roster. But Roma Dunez, in that first game, he had 10 targets, 6 for 65, led the wide receivers. You know, those two guys, DJ Moore and Roma Dunez, I think you can have as a scary flex option. How concerned are you looking at the Minnesota side, looking at, you know, Jefferson's in your lineup. But Hawkinson was sub 50% of snaps for the third consecutive week, just three targets. You successfully pulled off a pump and dump last week on the show. You moved him. I'm curious your opinion now. I mean, awful play. No, the, the.

The end of the season, we talked about his schedule opens up for tight-in matchups where they will utilize him. Starting here. Starting here. 23rd against tight-in the last six weeks, the Bears? Yeah, it's not a bad matchup for him. It's not as good as it gets down the stretch and the playoffs are just so juicy for him. But he's still a definite start. I mean, yes. Do you feel like they're going to manage his snaps further knowing the playoffs are in the horizon? So I do think that this is a player that they are obviously. not having out there every snap. And I think that's more gas tank than anything. I don't think it's injury. I don't think they're worried about the knee or any of that. They gave him a lot of time to heal. I think it's getting him into football shape. And you saw it in some of these plays where it was like he was really good. Sat in the zone in the right spot. He's big. He's strong. Catches the ball. And then he looks exhausted. As time continues to go, he'll only get better.

Two weeks ago, he was sub-50% of snaps, and he was eight for 72. They're bringing him in to catch the ball. So I'm not worried about Hawkinson. I'm still very pro-Hawkinson. Pre-injury, his snap counts were at 81%. So if they're working towards that, that's where he ends up. Yeah, he'll get there by, I think, by the end of the year. The Detroit Lions at 9-1 take on the Indianapolis Colts in Indie. Colts are 5 and 6. The Draft King Sportsbook line Detroit on the road, seven and a half point favorites. Wow. Over under is 50 and a half that gives them a 29 point implied point total. This is just to me not. This is whatever the, if I had a button for the opposite. Oh, really? Like the least possible upset. This is the button for me because I think right now this matchup is just suboptimal for Anthony Richardson. What you have to do, I mean, you remember this from our old flag football days?

I was a pretty good quarterback when the game was close. But if we got down by a couple scores, then we'd get down by a couple more scores. Yeah, you knew you got to take more chances. If you threw a pick. I needed to play with a lead or near the near the. Yeah. If you threw a pick, you threw four picks. That's usually how the games go. You throw four touchdowns or four picks. Yeah. I mean, it just feels a little bit like a problem to me in this one. I mean, Detroit's defense, pop to bottom is so good. I would be careful. We pick every week just for fun. We pick against the spreads in like a pool. And this was actually one of the most difficult games for me to pick because that line being that large, you know, I talked about it on The Hunger for more. We don't know if anything has been.

fixed or improved with Anthony Richardson, but he obviously looked better in his one single game against the Jets. He's at home, and there is a world where the offense is getting better here, and that Anthony Richardson and his tools can work. I ended up picking the Lions. I went on that side because in the end, the Lions are just the best team in the NFL. Their defense is solid on all levels. Now, it used to be they've got the best rush defense in the world. but you can't throw on them. That's really gone away. You can't do much against them. They are very dominant. But they did lose their lasagna defender. Anzolone. Anzoloni. There it is. Their lasagna? Yeah. Poor guy. Didn't you break his arm? Yeah, he'll be back and he's going to be a huge part of their Super Bowl run. But for now, that hurts. Obviously, you lost Hutchinson. So the.

The Lions defense in the secondary, they play the highest percentage of man in the National Football League. Anthony Richardson is dead last in the NFL in completion percentage against man coverage. And so that's the biggest concern is that can he, where he's the weakest, Detroit's the strongest, and then they'll be pressed. I just, I'm very concerned about it. Is there any, are you confidently starting Josh Downs then? Are you, are you? thinking maybe you're going to look and see if you've got a better option than Downs. I mean, I'd play Juan Jennings over Josh Downs. Well, sure. I'd play Joanne Jennings over almost everyone. But I'm saying... Okay. I'm just giving you an example. I mean, if you're looking at... Yeah, would you play... Okay. Oh, you would? Okay. I'd play...