The 2021 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20

at the wide receiver position. It took him some time, but we've seen his receptions go from 57 to 82 to 100. Tide the Lockett caught the ball 100 times last year. He's had double-digit touchdowns of two of his last three seasons, and it was eight touchdowns in that other season. He has the fifth most touchdowns of the last three years. Like, Tyler Lockett is extremely good, and he's tied to Russell Wilson, who is a high touchdown volume thrower.

He saw more targets than D.K. Metcalfe. Like, it's not just D.K. Metcalfe's team. Tyler Lockett is a huge part. This is a question. It's interesting because you have been the table pounder for like you guys, you and Jason had the Russell Wilson debate. Right. Where, you know, the volatility of Russell Wilson. And Jason, you can speak as a former Tyler Lockett, my guy. Yes. My guy two years in a row. So. Just keeps providing value. Yeah. I mean, how was your experience with Tyler?

It was outstanding the first half of the year. But you're willing to overlook some of the volatility. Absolutely. Because of where he is going in ADP, he saw 14 end zone targets. That was tied with D.K. Metcalf. So it's not just him. It's not just Metcalf getting those end zone shots. He's going in the fifth round. He is your. He's an auto pick for you. He is your fifth starter. He is not D.K. Everyone has no problem with the variance that hit D.K. Metcalf at the end of the season.

But Tyler Lockett has... Yeah, have you seen how big he is? It's true. I like D.K. Mack. But Tyler Lockett is being punished all the way down to the fifth round. After week eight, that's when the consistency really took a turn for the worst. However, he was still seeing volume. This was just a product of maybe the defense figured things out. Maybe the variance was regressing to the mean.

But in that time, after week 8, D.K. Metcalfe seeing 26% of the targets. Tyler Lockett, still seeing 23% of the targets. The volume was still there. It just, they were missing on the efficiency. Touchdown variance hit Tyler Lockett. David Moore had more touchdowns in that stretch. That's just how it goes sometimes. It did seem kind of impossible when you looked at the involvement in the offense for him to string that many weeks together.

He wasn't going to keep doing that. It didn't really make sense. It was like, okay, if you just showed me the target share and the targets, you'd be like, okay, he scored this many fantasy points, but he just had a bad run. Yeah, and similar to what Jason was saying about Clyde, if Clyde had done those things with different expectations, he would be skyrocketing in ADP. If Tyler Lockett's season were flip-flopped and he started bad, and then over the second half of the season,

comes out strong and wins people of fantasy championships, he would not be going in the fifth round. So with everything, with the volume still being there, the efficiency will, it will return, in my opinion. It's been there forever. We have a crazy stat here. This one was dug up by the Borgogan. Over their last 312 targets, here's Tyler Lockett versus Devante Adams. 239 receptions for Lockett, 220 for Adams.

Over 3,000 yards for Tyler Lockett, 2,600 yards for Adams, and 28 touchdowns for Lockett, 25 for Devante Adams. Like, Tyler Lockett is not thought of as an elite wide receiver, and I'm not... He's being paid like one. It's a fun stat. I'm not saying Tyler Lockett is Devante Adams. That's just a fun cherry pick stat. But I'm saying that Tyler Lockett represents such an insane value in the fifth round for how bad he was in the second half of the year.

He still finished the season in totality as a wide receiver won. That's how great the beginning was. So forgive the second half, get over it, and take that value in the fifth round. When you have that level of volume, consistency is an inconsistent metric. I brought this up in the past. We saw it with Michael Thomas, where two years in a row, he was incredibly full volume. You know, he was one of the highest targeted guys. One of those seasons.

He was very inconsistent. Like he lost a bunch of weeks and he won a bunch of weeks and then the next season, the most consistent wide receiver of all time. Just follow the volume. And Tyler Lockett has it and he's got a great quarterback. He's my auto pick as well in the fifth round. So really it just comes down to when Mike and I are in a draft together. Yeah. Who has the first fifth round pick? All right. My final my guy this year was recently quoted as saying,

I want to be a known name. Well, right now. Brooks, are we good on that trade? Oh, stop it. Oh, stop it. Yeah, just accepted that. Oh, thank you, Brooks. You're hilarious. No, this player wants to be a known name. I'm going to give him his day in the sun right now. His current average. His day in the night. Oh, I get it. Oh, yeah. It's up. It's full. I got you. He's being drafted as the wide receiver 50 right now in the 10th round.

I'm 50. Darnell Mooney. Yeah, baby. I guess we all have a second year wide receiver in our list. Mine is the former fifth round pick out of Tulane, Darnell Mooney, wide receiver for the Bears. A lot of people found it difficult to watch the Chicago Bears offense last year for good reason. Guilty as charged. The quarterback situation was gross. But if you watched, there was a player, Darnell Mooney, that stood out.

with elite separation. He was constantly overthrown, but Darno Mooney actually set the franchise record for receptions for the Chicago Bears last year as a rookie. He was fifth among rookie wide receivers in target share, seventh in total targets, ninth in fantasy points, and had the eighth most broken tackles by any wide receiver in football. That is a, those are absurd numbers for a player that is.

Mooney wasn't fantasy relevant. No. Not at all. No, he tried real hard to be, but the ball did not land near him. Ball does lie. Yeah, ball does lie. And this was like that rookie season was while acclimating to the NFL with Alan Robinson on the other side, fighting through atrociously bad rookie quarterback play. And still, do you realize he had 98 targets? 98 targets as a rookie. You don't realize that because so many were not to him.

He was on pace. Like, you know, you talk about... We could have counted him for other guys. The past was so bad. They don't let us credit the defender for the target. Yeah, and you know, it's crazy because, you know, you talk about Jefferson. It took till game three, and then you talk about Claypool. It was still game three. Like, over the second half of the year, his target pace was 120 for Darnell Mooney. The Anthony Miller experiment is over in Chicago. And targets are one of those...

You know, things that you earn as a wide receiver. It's a skill to demand targets in an offense. It's not random when you get up to almost 100 targets on the year. And, you know, we looked at every wide receiver over the last decade that saw 95 plus targets as a rookie and what they did the year after. 90% of those guys had a top 36 season in their future. 76% of them had a top 24 season. So it is an indicator of.

a career arc that generally, you know, improves and doesn't decline. I think he's primed for a massive jump this year. He's virtually undrafted, so the risk for your team is almost nothing. He's an elite route runner. He's been the standout. If you listen to Bears beat riders watching camp, it's been, you know, like C.D. Lamb in Dallas, it's been Darnel Mooney in Chicago. And so, you know, and this was a player that was 11th in deep targets last year.

He just couldn't get the ball within the radius of where he was because of that quarterback play. So if you go look at Player Profiler, 739 unrealized air yards. So he had the potential to actually be fantasy relevant last year. That was 10th in all the football. So I think that this is an elite separator that just didn't have a bunch of catchable targets. I tried as hard as I could to scoop him up in a Dynasty League.

from Brooks. I'm accepting offers now, Andy. Go get him. Like, that's the message. Oh, gosh, Mike. Maybe he should trade him to you. Maybe I have a better shot with me and you. But go scoop him up in dynasty leagues, grab them at the end of your drafts, and then get ready for Mooney to break out. I definitely think in a dynasty league. I mean, with Alan Robinson on a contract year, but, you know, he's playing on the franchise tag. He could be gone. And the way this team talks about Mooney is.

You could see one of those like, you know, those later round guys who end up shocking the team. And then they're like, well, let's move on from our number one. Make him the number one. That happens. And I could see that for Mooney very easily. So I'm excited. I'm excited for Mooney. 438 guy, 95 percentile speed. I did not realize he was 438. I mean, I see it on the field. Yeah. Wow. He's a.

You can see some Tyreek. You can see some Antonio Brown in the route running. And I'm not ashamed to make those comparisons with the ascension, I think, that's possible for him. Oh, fire. Well, speaking of fire, are you looking? My third and final pick here. Here's a fireball. Here's a fireball. Brandon Ayyuk.

uh wide receiver for the san francisco 49ers uh another second year wide receiver we've talked that up a lot lately um it's funny it the you go back to that draft class you know the two years ago and that was the year that it was stash up and we collect as many first round picks as you can for your rookie draft because these wide receivers we know are going to come through in a big way

And now they're all seconding your players so they're going to be even bigger. Yeah. Lo and behold, it was a good draft class. Get these players. Brandon Ayuk was great. In fact, I don't know if you remember this. Let's skip to the love of that draft class. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan last year, they talked about how.

They had the 13th pick in the draft, and the day before the draft, they decided that if they can't move on from that pick, they're trying to trade down because they didn't have a lot of picks, that they were going to sit there and take Brandon Ayuk at number 13 overall. Reminders, C.D. Lamb went 17. That was their guy. They were able to trade back. And then later in the draft, they traded up from the 31 to the 25 to get their guy, Brandon Ayuk. That was someone targeted for this system. And what did he do his rookie year?

He was awesome. He was a top 36 wide receiver as a rookie in only 12 games. He had 96 targets, 748 yards, five receiving touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns with 77 rushing yards, and he had five weeks as a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy. I know that he was missing George Kittle for some of those, Debo for some of those, but it doesn't matter. He still did it.

top 12 finishes than Justin Jefferson had last year. It's the same amount that Diggs and Ridley have. And over the last decade, you want to look at, you know, wide receiver one weekly finishes. You have only O'Dell Beckham who had more than Brandon Ayuk, tied with Michael Thomas and A.J. Brown and then as a rookie. As a rookie. And then stupid Calvin Benjamin again, always ruining these lists. Why do you have such a good rookie year? I hate Calvin Benjamin. You big tight end now.

But the point is, is that what he did on the NFL field was fantastic. The reports in camp are saying he has just been dominant. And he has. You watch some of the, you know, the normal Twitter highlights and you get all hot and bothered. And I think there's this question of, well, what about Debo Samuel?

Debo Samuel was gone for a lot of the year. The splits with Debo and without Debo are almost identical. He was just as good in games Debo played in and just as good when Debo was out. But people go, well, we don't know who's a better fantasy player this year for sure. So I'll just take the value. I'll take the guy who's going second. And I say no.

There was some great studies done this offseason by JJ Zacharisen and Rich Rebar, two totally different ones that found the same odds strongly favoring the fantasy production of the wide receiver drafted first when you've got multiple wide receivers going in those middle rounds. It actually found a really positive correlation where they beat their ADP. The first guy drafted does. Basically what it's saying is, look, we're smart.

As a fantasy community, we get it. We peg the right guy. And usually the guy who goes first beats his production by a wide margin, and the guy who goes second actually disappoints from that ADP. So I'm not worried about Debo Samuel in that sense. You have the draft capital of a first rounder. They went up and got him while having Debo on this team. And Debo is...