The 2021 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20

utilized in a completely different way than most wide receivers. He's a borderline running back. His average depth of target is 2.6 yards. That is, you know how Juju Smith-Schuster gets made fun of because everything's so close to the line of scrimmage? Yep. Juju's more than double that. He was, and Juju's, you know, 5.6 yards depth of target. The middle of the field.

Where normal wide receiver production is coming from, that is Debo's place to live. The connections in camp right now with both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance have been touted recently talking about how he is the guy there. And, you know, when I see a first round, NFL draft pick, who had five top 12 performances as a rookie in only 12 games, and he finished as a top 36 wide receiver who's going in the sixth round and passes the eyeball test.

That's a my guy. I'm going to take him in the sixth because I think that the risk doesn't matter that much. The upside is a true breakout. And we've already seen it before. So I love I yuk this year. Well, there's a connection between that my guy and potentially this next. There is. And the final one to reveal. This final my guy, this could take some time. I'm calling this a stash and cash situation.

It's Trey Lance, rookie quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers. What he brings to the table is a truly difference-making dynamic skill set with his legs. We've already seen the big arm. You saw it in preseason game one. When he comes in and is like his third snap in the game, he just airs out an 80-yard touchdown, which, by the way, in that play, he bypassed the checkdown. He saw it was open, and then he said, like, no.

I can make that throw, and he hit Sherfield right in the breadbasket, and it was a monster score. But the legs, we haven't seen it yet in game action, but you know what's going to happen. Lance is an unproven talent, really? The 49ers saw enough to make him the third overall pick, but his one year of big college production, Trey Lance, 2,800 yards, 28 passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, which is...

B. Nana's. Also, he added 1,100 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdown. Also, BNanas. He's built like a tank at the quarterback position. Yeah, but can I, can I not like him because I'm a Cardinal fan? Yes, that is allowed. Yes, very, very much so. I'm, I am dreading to have him to play against Strait. Stupid NFC. West. So let's look at what rushing has done for quarterbacks, really prolific rushing quarterbacks. We've seen.

A quarterback hit 1,000 yards three times. Lamar Jackson has done it twice. Quarterback 1, quarterback 6. Michael Vick did it once. Quarterback 2. If you hit 1,000 rushing yards, which Trey Lance can do, the 1,000 yards is presuming the whole season. But the point is, whenever you come in and you're on that pace, you're going to be an absolute stud. You had Michael Vick in 2004, had over 900 rushing yards.

He had 17 total touchdowns that's it, that year. That's it. But because he had 900 rushing yards, he was a top 12 quarterback at the end of the year. Since the year 2010, so now we're getting into Windus Trey Lance play. Since the year 2010, quarterbacks drafted as a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. We have 23 players, right? So we have 23 instances of a quarterback being drafted as a top 10 pick. 18 of those players.

started by week four. That is the vast majority of those guys. And then the guys who didn't, Trubisky, week five, Tua, week eight. Gough was week 11. And then Patrick Mahomes is, Patrick Mahomes and Jake Locker are big outliers, right? Where they, yeah, Mahomes was at the end of the year. Jake Locker didn't play until year two. But now let's move it up. Where was Trey Lance drafted? Top three. Not only was he a top three pick. San Francisco traded two future first round picks to go up and get him.

But since 2010, quarterbacks drafted as a top three pick have averaged 13.7 games played per season. I firmly believe that Tray Lance will be starting sooner than later. We still have a scenario where by the season starting, Tray Lance is actually the guy week one. But even if he is not, I am drafting him in the 12th round where his ADP is right now. I am going to stash and I'm going to cash. Here's last year's... Is that a permistash no matter how long it takes?

Well, like maybe you get to week eight or something. I don't know. And what's your prediction right now on when he, like, if you just had to like put a stack of cash down on when he will get out there on the field? I'm going to bet with the historical trends. I know every instance is its own thing. Absolutely. But I'm going to go with the history of the NFL and I will say he'll be in before week five. Okay. With that 18 players of 23 making that start by then. And so here's.

Here's why Trey Lance is such a good draft pick to me. Because if he, once he becomes the starter, he's immediately a difference maker for your fantasy football team. Also on top of that, he's going to be your second quarterback. And you are keeping him away from other teams getting that boost whenever he takes over. But look at the opportunity cost. Here's last year's 12th round picks. Reichwell Armstead, Duke Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Baker Mayfield, Golden Tate, Jerich McKinnon, Justin Tucker.

The 12th round is just absolute garbage. I would actually pass on a pick in the 12th, but those are my options. I would just say, no thank you. I'd like to save this one for the waivers. Right. And that's basically what Trey Lance is. Trey Lance is a future waiver pick, but you are not burning your waiver priority. You are not exploding 50% of your fab for when he becomes the starting quarterback. So I am all in on draft Trey Lance at the end.

of your draft. Yes, he's your second quarterback, and I don't often do that strategy. But when I've done that strategy, it's for these highly mobile quarterbacks like Lamar, Josh Allen, back when they were nobodies, and then they became a fantasy force. And I think that that same upside exists for Tray Lance. Final question for you, Mike. Does that mean that you would probably be avoiding anything in the early quarterback realm?

regardless of value because obviously if you end up going Kyler in the fifth round like you're not replacing Kyler with the breakout of Lance later on. No, but I'm so are you shooting for the Tanna Hill or the or somebody else later in the draft while you wait? Generally that my strategy would be but I don't even if I grab Kyler in the fifth or I get a value and I draft Kyler Murray in the sixth round. I'm still going to play the keep away because of being terrified that my opponent will get Tray Lance.

All right. Tom Brady, Tyler Higby, Darnell Mooney, My Three My Guys, Jason has C.D. Lamb, Clyde Edwards, Aller, and Brandon Ayuk. And Mike is bringing Tyler Lockett, Chase Claypool, and Trey Lance to the table for 2021. Very excited to see how these play out. If you want to go on Twitter at the FF Ballers, share your My Guy with us. Use the hashtag My Guy. And we'll browse some of those.

There are obviously a lot of players to choose from this year and a lot of excitement out there. So hopefully you enjoyed this episode and you managed to get a few of these guys on your team. Brooks, you sure about those offers? Yeah, I was really, I really wanted to come in here and say. Well, now you can't. I went out and got Darnell Mooney. You just popped up his value. He sounds great. So I think I'll hang on to him. There was a, I mean, that was strategic as well. I knew what was going on. So, um.

Al wants to hear the offer. Why do you think that my offer stink? It was actually, it was a strong, I didn't say anything. The people want to know. I know what you're saying in your head. Will Fuller and Tassum Hill. Oh, really? I didn't hear that. Last I heard it was just Will Fuller. Well, technically it was Will Fuller, Tassum Hill for Jordan Love and, but I did, I did offer like four or five other ones. He just doesn't like Will Fuller.

That's going to be a problem for accepting a trade with Will Fuller. Yeah, no, I get it. I get it. Brooks, can I offer you Cadarius Tony? No, thanks. Boy, first round pick, man. Sky's the limit for Cadarious Tony. Because I think a lot of people on the surface would say they'd rather have Will Fuller. Yes. Than Darnell Mooney. But I had enough dynasty conviction to say, like, I'm going to take the upside and the chance on Darnell Mooney. And I really don't know if their situations are very different, you know, with.

Waddle being drafted in Miami with the history that we have with some injury with Will Fuller. And he's hurt right now, too. That is true. It's a fair point. It's a fair point. I'm still waiting for that counter, though. All right. Next week we got more, we got a review of preseason week two. We got breakouts, bus, sleepers, values, and a final mock draft show next week. That'll do it for today. You can watch this episode. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Subscribe. Click the bell.

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